Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent listing of Duodian Shuzhi, the largest retail digital solution provider in China, is expected to invigorate the smart retail sector, supported by favorable policies aimed at boosting consumption [1][3]. - The retail digitalization market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size in Asia expected to increase from approximately 31 billion yuan in 2023 to about 80 billion yuan by 2028, reflecting a CAGR of 20.9%. In China, the market is anticipated to grow from 18.7 billion yuan to around 61.8 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 27.1% [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report discusses the positive impact of government policies aimed at boosting consumption, which is expected to revitalize the retail market in 2025. Key meetings have emphasized the importance of enhancing consumer spending and supporting low-income groups [5]. Company Analysis - Duodian Shuzhi, established in 2015, has become the largest retail digital solution provider in China, with operations in 10 countries and regions. The company reported a revenue growth of over 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, with a total of 444 ongoing business clients [5]. - The company has a strong customer base and has achieved a revenue CAGR of 37% from 2021 to 2023, with improving gross margins and decreasing expense ratios [5]. Market Potential - The report notes that the digitalization of retail is a key growth area, with significant opportunities for traditional service sectors to upgrade digitally. The global smart hotel market is also expected to grow from 5 billion USD in 2020 to 15 billion USD by 2027, with a CAGR of 17% [5].

Core Views - The report emphasizes that the main obstacle to China's economic development is insufficient effective demand rather than a lack of production capacity [3][6][7] - It suggests that optimizing the domestic income distribution structure and increasing the proportion of residents' income in the economy is a key strategy to address the current economic growth pressure [7] Market Indices - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3236.03, up 0.28% [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10101.10, up 0.41% [4] - The ChiNext Index closed at 2051.35, up 0.66% [4] Industry Performance - The telecommunications sector saw an increase of 2.47% [5] - The food and beverage sector decreased by 0.85% [5] - The electronic sector decreased by 0.81% [5] Financial Data Insights - In December 2024, new social financing amounted to 2.85 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 840.2 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations [9] - The M2 money supply grew by 7.3% year-on-year in December 2024, while M1 decreased by 1.4% [8] - New loans in December 2024 totaled 990 billion yuan, with short-term loans performing better than medium and long-term loans [9]

Economic Overview - In December 2024, new social financing (社融) reached 2.85 trillion yuan, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.11 trillion yuan, and increased by 918.1 billion yuan compared to the same month in 2023[3] - New RMB loans amounted to 840.2 billion yuan in December 2024, a decrease of 269 billion yuan year-on-year, but an increase of 318.6 billion yuan from November 2024[3][4] Financing Structure - The increase in social financing was primarily driven by government bonds and corporate bonds, while RMB loans saw a significant year-on-year decline[4] - The share of government bonds in the financing structure rose by 0.30 percentage points compared to November 2024, while RMB loans decreased by 0.21 percentage points[5] Monetary Supply - M2 money supply grew by 7.3% year-on-year in December 2024, while M1 decreased by 1.4%[9] - M0 increased by 13.0% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in liquidity for enterprises[9] Deposit Trends - New deposits decreased by 1.4 trillion yuan in December 2024, primarily due to declines in non-bank and fiscal deposits[12] - Non-bank deposits fell by 3.17 trillion yuan compared to the same month in 2023, reflecting regulatory changes in interest rate pricing[12] Loan Characteristics - Financial institutions issued 990 billion yuan in new loans in December 2024, with short-term loans and residential loans showing stronger performance compared to medium- and long-term loans[13] - Residential medium- and long-term loans increased by 153.8 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in real estate sales[13] Central Bank Policy Outlook - The central bank is expected to consider "selective reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" in early 2025, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and stable financial growth[19] - The People's Bank of China opted for a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 959.5 billion yuan instead of a reserve requirement cut, likely to mitigate pressure on the yuan amid a strengthening US dollar[19] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include a resurgence in global inflation, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the US, and increasing international geopolitical complexities[20]

Economic Development Sources - The sources of economic development in China are threefold: the expansion of residents' desire for a better life, the expansion of production capacity, and the expansion of "effective demand" [2] - The primary obstacle to economic development is insufficient effective demand, not a lack of production capacity [2] - Effective demand is defined as the combination of purchasing power and spending desire, which is currently misaligned in China due to income distribution issues [2] Income Distribution Issues - The mismatch in income distribution leads to a situation where those with purchasing power lack the desire to spend, while those with spending desire lack purchasing power [2] - The low proportion of residents' income in total economic income results in insufficient consumption [2] - A significant solution to address demand insufficiency is to optimize the domestic income distribution structure, increasing the proportion of residents' income in the economy [2] Investment and Consumption Dynamics - In the short term, increasing state capital transfers to social security funds can boost residents' income and consumption [2] - The long-term strategy includes a "national enterprise shareholding plan" to enhance residents' income [2] - Investment can create demand, but if investment returns are low, it suppresses corporate investment willingness, exacerbating the issue of insufficient domestic demand [2] Demand Insufficiency Concepts - Demand insufficiency can be categorized into three concepts: total demand insufficiency, internal demand insufficiency, and consumption insufficiency [21] - Total demand insufficiency refers to the overall effective demand being lower than domestic supply capacity, while internal demand insufficiency specifically addresses domestic consumption and investment [21] - Consumption insufficiency indicates that consumption as a proportion of the economy is below an optimal level, which is crucial for evaluating economic health [21]

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 1 月 16 日 | 1 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002120.SZ | 韵达股份 | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | | 688085.SH | 三友医疗 | | 000848.SZ | 承德露露 | | 605108.SH | 同庆楼 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250116 ■重点关注 【固定收益】住户贷款回升，后续仍可期待*肖成哲 张鹏。2025 年货币政 策或在兼顾内外平衡的基础上，更优先调整内部经济金融均衡，但由于降准 降息已在预期范围内，债市不宜过度追高。 【传媒】趣致集团*周政宇 苏凌瑶。趣致集团作为中国领先的 AIoT 互动终 端网络的营销服务提供商，推出的 AI 互动营销解决方案已成功实现商业化， 业绩处于快速增长阶段。随着国内业务的成长与海外业务的开拓，公司业绩 有望保持高速增长。 市场指数 | 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3227.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an initial coverage date of January 15, 2025 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company, Quzhi Group, is recognized as a leader in AIoT interactive marketing, experiencing rapid growth in its business performance. The AI interactive marketing solutions offered by the company have been successfully commercialized, and the company is expected to maintain high growth rates as it expands both domestically and internationally [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Quzhi Group is a leading provider of AIoT interactive terminal network marketing services in China, utilizing self-developed multi-sensory AI interactive terminals to connect consumers with fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands [16][17]. Financial Performance - The company reported significant revenue growth, with sales revenue projected to increase from RMB 554 million in 2022 to RMB 2,283 million by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 30.29% [7][23]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to rise from RMB 78 million in 2022 to RMB 386 million in 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [7][47]. Business Segments - The company's main business segments include marketing services and product sales, with marketing services accounting for over 70% of total revenue. Marketing services revenue saw a nearly 100% increase in 2023 [23][26]. - The marketing services are divided into standardized and value-added services, with the latter showing substantial growth due to increased interactivity and consumer engagement [18][29]. Market Potential - The AIoT marketing sector is projected to grow at a CAGR of 30.1% from 2022 to 2027, providing significant opportunities for the company as it expands its market presence [8][66]. - The company is also initiating a global strategy to enter the Middle Eastern market, where the AI marketing sector is expected to grow at a CAGR of 27.3% from 2023 to 2030 [8][66]. Valuation - The report employs the PEG valuation method, with the company's PEG ratio for 2026 estimated at 1.75, which is lower than the average PEG ratio of comparable companies at 1.97 [5][7].

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in China's export performance for 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in dollar terms and 7.1% in RMB terms, indicating a continuation of positive growth momentum [4][5] - The trade surplus for 2024 reached 992.16 billion USD, with a notable increase in December's exports, which grew by 10.7% year-on-year, supported by "export grabbing" strategies [4][5] - Key trading partners such as ASEAN, the EU, and the US contributed positively to the export growth, with the US showing a significant improvement in export contributions [5][6] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3240.94, reflecting a 2.54% increase, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 3.77% to 10165.17 [2] - The ChiNext Index, representing growth enterprises, saw a notable increase of 4.71%, closing at 2075.76 [2] Industry Performance - The computer sector led the industry performance with a 6.14% increase, followed by media and machinery equipment sectors, which rose by 5.72% and 5.68% respectively [3] - The automotive industry also showed resilience with a 4.97% increase, indicating strong demand and export performance in the automotive supply chain [6]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The global new ship order volume reached a 17-year high in 2024, with 2,390 vessels totaling 170 million deadweight tons, and Chinese shipyards accounted for 70% of the global market share [2][14] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China announced that the entire industry turned profitable in 2024, with a reduction in losses by 20.6 billion yuan year-on-year [16] - Jitu Express reported a daily average of over 80 million packages globally, with China's express delivery volume surpassing 170 billion packages in 2024, reflecting a 21% year-on-year growth [19][21] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - CMA CGM announced a peak season surcharge for certain routes, effective January 15, 2025, with fees of $1,500 per TEU for specific cargo [2][13] - Hong Kong Airlines will resume long-haul routes to Australia and Canada, marking its return to the international market [16][17] - Jitu Express achieved a total package volume of 73.9 billion in Q4 2024, a 32.5% increase year-on-year [19] 2. High-Frequency Dynamic Data Tracking - Air cargo prices showed a downward trend from mid-December 2024 to late December 2024 [22] - The shipping price index decreased as of January 10, 2025, while dry bulk freight rates increased [29] - In November 2024, express delivery volume increased by 26.15% year-on-year, with revenue rising by 15.18% [39] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies like COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [4] - Attention to low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [4] - Investment opportunities in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [4] - E-commerce express delivery investment opportunities, recommending Jitu Express and Yunda [4] - Investment opportunities in the aviation sector, recommending China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and others [4]

Core Views - The report highlights a focus on macroeconomic indicators, specifically the December CPI and PPI growth rates, which align with market expectations. The CPI growth rate showed a slight decline compared to November, primarily due to food prices, while service prices experienced a minor increase [2][5][6] - The report maintains a forecast that both CPI and PPI growth rates will continue to rise in 2025, with CPI expected to increase to 0.9% year-on-year, and PPI projected to decline by 0.6% year-on-year, with a potential recovery in the fourth quarter of 2025 [5][8] Stock Recommendations - The report lists a selection of stocks recommended for January, including Yunda Holdings (002120.SZ), China Petroleum (601857.SH), and CATL (300750.SZ) among others, indicating a strategic focus on these companies for potential investment opportunities [1] Market Indices - The report provides closing prices and percentage changes for major market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3160.76, down 0.25%, and the Shenzhen Component Index remaining unchanged at 9796.18 [3] Industry Performance - The report details the performance of various industries, noting that the non-ferrous metals sector saw a rise of 1.81%, while the household appliances sector declined by 2.45%. Other notable performances include real estate up by 1.12% and banking down by 1.16% [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a "stronger than market" rating for the industry [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in new home prices in 70 cities is slowing down, with first-tier new home prices stabilizing [1]. - It emphasizes the government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market through tax adjustments and policy support, which is expected to gradually release demand in 2025 [1][2]. - The report notes that the real estate sector is entering a phase of recovery, driven by supportive policies and improving market conditions [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - New home transaction area decreased by 38.6% month-on-month, while year-on-year growth was 5.8% [7]. - Second-hand home transaction area turned positive month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [7]. - New home inventory area increased month-on-month, with a decrease in the year-on-year growth rate [7][16]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions in 100 cities was 1,784 million square meters, down 65.9% month-on-month but up 57.9% year-on-year [13]. - The total land transaction price was 87.61 billion yuan, down 21.8% month-on-month and 30.0% year-on-year [13]. - The average floor price of land increased by 111.2% month-on-month and 120.4% year-on-year [13]. 3. Policy Overview - The report outlines various local government measures aimed at promoting the real estate market, including prioritizing quality land supply and encouraging home purchase subsidies [7][8]. - It mentions the Ministry of Housing's focus on enhancing the quality of affordable housing and urban village renovation projects [7]. 4. Sector Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was -2.7%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points from the previous week [14]. - The relative return was -1.6%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous week [14]. - The sector's PE ratio was 19.85X, a decrease of 0.46X from the previous week [14]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: 1. Stocks expected to improve post-policy easing, such as JinDi Group and Longfor Group [7]. 2. Stocks with strong core city layouts and targeted policy support, including Greentown China and China Resources Land [7]. 3. Local state-owned enterprises benefiting from government debt relief and land acquisition, such as Yuexiu Property and China City Investment [7].