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Trade Data Summary - From January to November 2023, China's exports increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with a trade surplus of $884.67 billion[1] - In November 2023, exports grew by 6.7% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down by 6.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - Imports during the same period rose by 1.2%, with a notable decline of 3.9% in November[1] Key Trade Partners - In November, trade with ASEAN reached $87.32 billion, accounting for 16.6% of total trade, with exports to ASEAN increasing by 14.9%[1] - Exports to the EU rose by 7.2%, while imports fell by 6.6% in November, with total trade amounting to $62.76 billion[1] - Trade with the US totaled $59.73 billion, with exports increasing by 8.0% and imports declining by 11.2%[1] Industry Performance - The automotive supply chain and electromechanical products showed strong export performance, with automotive exports growing by 5.8% year-on-year from January to November[1] - High-tech products like integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment saw export growth rates of 18.8% and 9.9%, respectively[1] Economic Outlook - The US policy environment in 2024 is expected to be uncertain, with potential tariffs impacting exports to the US[1] - The Federal Reserve may maintain a slightly tight monetary policy, which could affect overseas demand for Chinese products[1] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected resilience in inflation among major economies and increasing geopolitical uncertainties[1]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2024 年 12 月 10 日 11 月通胀点评 消费好转是通胀企稳回升的重要条件 11 月 CPI 同比增速低于万得一致预期；CPI 同比增速较 10 月走低，主要是 受食品价格拖累，此外服务业价格的季节性回落也有一定影响；2025 年低基 数对 CPI 的影响比较大，预计 CPI 同比增速有望平缓上行；11 月 PPI 同比 增速超出万得一致预期，主要是受政策发力带动；但是春节前到一季度是投 资和生产的淡季，关注工业品价格向好能否持续。 ◼ 11 月 CPI 环比增速-0.6%，同比增长 0.2%，核心 CPI 同比增长 0.3%，服 务价格同比增长 0.4%，消费品价格同比持平。 ◼ 从环比看，11 月食品价格下降 2.7%，降幅超近十年同期平均水平 2.5 个 百分点，较 10 月增速下行 1.5 个百分点，非食品价格由上月持平转为下 降 0.1%；从同比看，食品价格上涨 1.0%，涨幅比上月回落 1.9 个百分点， 非食品价格由上月下降 0.3%转为持平。 ◼ 食品继续拖累 11 月 CPI 增速表现。11 月 CPI 同比增速较 10 月下降 0.1 个 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the wind power and power grid equipment industry for 2025 [1]. Core Insights - Domestic wind power installations are expected to exceed 100GW in 2025, driven by favorable demand and policy support, leading to a recovery in profitability for both complete machines and components [1]. - The report highlights the commencement of domestic offshore wind project tenders and anticipates high growth in offshore wind installations in Europe starting from 2025, creating significant market opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [1]. - The domestic power grid construction and renovation demand is expected to remain robust, with high investment levels continuing, benefiting related power equipment companies [1]. Summary by Sections Wind Power - The report forecasts that domestic wind power installations will reach approximately 88GW and 105GW in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.94% and 19.32% [1]. - The "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" for offshore wind installations indicates a potential market gap of about 36GW, prompting increased tendering activity in 2024 to support growth in 2025 [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures such as the "Thousand Villages and Ten Thousand Villages Wind Action Plan" to ensure steady growth in new energy installations [1]. Power Equipment - The report notes that the investment in the domestic main grid is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with significant projects planned for 2025 utilizing flexible DC transmission technology [1]. - There is a strong correlation between domestic and international demand for power equipment, with increasing opportunities for exports as global utility companies ramp up capital expenditures [1]. - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from high demand in ultra-high voltage projects and those with export potential in the distribution and transformation equipment sector [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a clear direction towards recovery since the end of September 2024 [1]. Core Insights - New housing transaction area has shifted from positive to negative on a month-on-month basis, although the year-on-year growth has expanded due to a low base effect [1]. - The report highlights that the central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market is evident from recent policy signals, including a shift towards more proactive fiscal and monetary policies [1][1]. - The land market shows an increase in both volume and price, with a notable rise in the premium rate [1]. Summary by Sections 1. New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of November 30 to December 6, 2024, new housing transaction area in 40 cities decreased by 10.2% month-on-month but increased by 56.2% year-on-year [1][27]. - The transaction volume for new homes was 3.5 million units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 9.6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.6% [1][28]. - Inventory levels for new homes in 12 cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 10.7% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply [1][41]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area across 100 cities was 28.44 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 4.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1][22]. - The total transaction value for land reached 1226.2 billion, marking a significant month-on-month increase of 51.9% and a year-on-year increase of 51.2% [1][22]. - The average floor price for land transactions was 4312 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 45.7% and a year-on-year increase of 47.5% [1][22]. 3. Policy Overview - The report notes that the recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for more active fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the market [1][1]. - Specific policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market are anticipated to be implemented, which could further support demand [1][1]. 4. Company Performance - The report indicates that the absolute return for the real estate sector was 3.3%, with a relative return of 1.8%, both showing slight improvements from the previous week [1][25]. - The price-to-earnings ratio for the real estate sector is reported at 23.43X, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.47X [1][25]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: companies expected to benefit from policy easing, those with strong positions in core cities, and local state-owned enterprises involved in debt resolution and urban renewal [1][1].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The shipping market is expected to see growth across various vessel types in 2024, with container ships projected to have the highest growth at 10% and oil tankers the lowest at 1%. Bulk carriers and gas carriers are expected to grow by 3% and 7% respectively, while car carriers are anticipated to grow by 8% [1][46] - Global air freight demand increased by 9.8% year-on-year in October, with China's civil aviation cargo volume reaching historically high levels this year. The International Air Transport Association reported a continuous growth trend for 15 months [1][48] - Significant progress has been made in reducing logistics costs in China, with the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP steadily declining. The goal is to reduce this ratio to around 13.5% by 2027, down from 18% in 2012 [1][56] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hotspot Events - The shipping market is projected to maintain growth in 2024, with varying growth rates across vessel types. Container ships are expected to lead with a 10% increase, while oil tankers will see only a 1% increase [1][46] - In October, global air freight demand grew by 9.8% year-on-year, marking a significant increase in China's civil aviation cargo volume [1][48] - The logistics cost reduction plan aims to lower the ratio of logistics costs to GDP to 13.5% by 2027, reflecting a decrease from 18% in 2012 [1][56] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air freight prices have shown an upward trend from late November to early December, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 5585.00 points, a 6.9% increase from the previous month [1][60] - The shipping price index has increased, while dry bulk freight rates have decreased. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reported a 1.01% increase week-on-week [1][72] - In October, express delivery volume increased by 24% year-on-year, with total express delivery revenue rising by 14.53% [1][90] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [1] - It highlights investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [1] - The report also suggests looking into cruise and ferry investment opportunities, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [1]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n市场指数 指数名称 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n收盘价 | 涨跌 % | 2024 年 12 月 10 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241210 | | 上证综指 | | 3402.53 (0.05) | | | | 深证成指 | | 10731.66 (0.55) | | | | 沪深 300 | | 3966.57 (0.17) | | ■ 重点关注 | | | | | | | | 中小 100 创业板指 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry [1]. Core Insights - The social services sector saw a 9.22% increase over the last two trading weeks, ranking 4th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.44 percentage points [1][27]. - The sector's performance was driven by strong growth in sub-sectors such as education (+14.07%), tourism and scenic spots (+10.43%), and hotel and catering (+8.92%) [1][30]. - Recent policy expansions, including visa exemptions, are expected to further benefit inbound tourism [1]. Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.19%, while the CSI 300 increased by 2.78% during the same period [1][27]. - The number of domestic flights executed was 98,645, slightly down by 1.60% from the previous week, but still at 99.56% of the level seen in the same period in 2019 [1]. - International flights reached 11,782, recovering to 76.52% of 2019 levels, indicating potential for further recovery [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong growth prospects in the travel chain and related industries, including Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [1][59]. - It also highlights the potential benefits for hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel due to the recovery in business travel [1][59]. - Companies benefiting from cross-border travel recovery, such as China Duty Free and Wangfujing, are also recommended [1][59]. Company Dynamics & Announcements - The report notes significant developments in the industry, including the launch of a new round of duty-free shopping incentives in Haikou and a rise in hotel project signings [1][37]. - The report highlights the increasing popularity of ice and snow tourism, with a 50% increase in search volume for skiing-related products [1][38]. - It also mentions the ongoing recovery in the restaurant sector, with a positive outlook for December [1][40].

Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening consensus within the photovoltaic (PV) industry regarding self-discipline and the prevention of "involution" or unhealthy competition, as discussed in a meeting held by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) on December 5, 2024 [2][3] - The CPIA has released a cost analysis indicating that the price of PV components has increased, with the lowest price rising to 0.69 yuan/W, reflecting a commitment to curtailing involutionary competition and potentially improving industry profitability [4] Industry Performance - The PV industry is witnessing a gradual establishment of its bottom line, with production restrictions in various segments such as silicon wafers being implemented, and expectations for reduced silicon material output continuing to strengthen [4] - The number of participating companies in the CPIA's meetings has increased, further solidifying the consensus against involution, with new members joining the discussions [3] Cost Analysis - As of November 20, 2024, the CPIA reported that the component cost remained stable at 0.603 yuan/W, while the minimum price increased by 0.01 yuan/W compared to October, indicating a potential upward trend in pricing across the industry [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][38]. Core Viewpoints - The medical and biological sector is experiencing a recovery in consumer confidence, which is expected to boost demand for medical services [5]. - The fourth quarter marks the peak season for the health check industry, with increased demand driven by year-end health checks and promotional activities from health check institutions [30]. - The medical and biological index has shown a significant increase of 1.62% from December 2 to December 6, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.17 percentage points [4][20]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Performance - The medical and biological index rose by 1.62% during the period from December 2 to December 6, 2024, ranking 23rd among sectors [4][20]. - All sub-sector indices achieved positive returns and outperformed the CSI 300 index during the same period [22]. Sub-sector Analysis - The chemical pharmaceutical index increased by 4.89%, the medical services index by 2.84%, and the biological products index by 2.44%, all outperforming the CSI 300 index [22]. - The medical device index rose by 1.57%, while the traditional Chinese medicine index increased by 1.95% [22]. Valuation Metrics - As of December 6, 2024, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the medical and biological sector is 27.89 times, showing a recovery compared to the levels in July-August 2024, but still below the valuation levels of 2021 [25][26]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable growth areas such as medical devices and pharmaceuticals, with specific companies recommended for investment [5]. - The CXO sector and medical equipment sector are expected to gradually recover in 2025, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [5]. - Innovative companies with potential for international expansion are also recommended for investment consideration [5].