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宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 宏观策略评论 2024 年 11 月 17 日 经济形势跟踪： 预期效应跑在政策直接效 果前面 ◼ 从 2024 年 10 月的月度经济数据，以及 11 月上半月的高频数据来看，今 年 9 月末以来的政策转向之效果已经在实体经济中开始显现。不过到目 前为止，政策效果还主要通过预期渠道体现（即通过预期改善来提振经济 主体的支出意愿），政策的直接带动作用在实体经济数据中还不明显。 ◼ 尽管预期已经改善，但如果政策不能尽快将真金白银投入实体经济，带动 实体经济中有效需求的扩张，则民间预期可能再度转向悲观，令经济形势 的向好缺乏持续性。 ◼ 从宏观预测的角度来看，考虑到 10 月经济数据已有改善迹象，且财政政 策正在落地，我们小幅上调了 2024 年 4 季度的 GDP 增长预测。现在我 们预期，4 季度 GDP 增速会小幅回升至 4.8%，略高于 3 季度。但 2024 年 全年 GDP 增速仍然只有 4.8%，不及年初设定的 5%之目标。从把经济增 长稳定在 5%左右的目标来看，当下的政策刺激还有待进一步发力。 （风险提示：宏观经济走势具有不确定性，宏观政策可能超预期变化。） 中银 ...

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医药生物 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 11 月 17 日 相关研究报告 《医药生物行业周报&三季报总结》20241111 《海外医疗体系研究（一）》20241103 《医药生物行业周报》20241027 强于大市 医药生物行业周报 国家医保局与财政部联合发文，医院回款问题有望改善 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 医药生物 证券分析师：刘恩阳 enyang.liu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300523090004 证券分析师：梁端玉 duanyu.liang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300523090003 申万医药生物指数在 2024.11.11-2024.11.15 期间下跌 3.92%，跑输沪深 300 指数 0.63 个百分点。截至 2024.11.15，申万医药生物板块市盈率（TTM）为 27.41 倍。 板块行情 ◼ 申万医药生物指数在 2024.11.11-2024.11.15 期间下跌 3.92%，排名第十八 跑输沪深 300 指数 0.63 个百分点。从医药生物子板块来看，近一周各子 板块 ...

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机械设备 | 证券研究报告 — 最新信息 2024 年 11 月 15 日 000680.SZ 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 9.21 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 1 3 12 (20%) 2% 24% 46% 68% 90% Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24 山推股份 深圳成指 至今 个月 个月 个月 绝对 84.6 15.3 41.3 74.1 相对深圳成指 67.2 8.4 8.4 63.8 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|-----------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 1,500.33 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 1,308.00 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 13,818.02 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 252.31 | | 主要股东 | | | | 山东重工集团有限公司 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company experienced a 34% year-on-year decline in performance for the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to a decrease in photovoltaic glass market prices, leading to temporary pressure on earnings. However, the supply landscape for photovoltaic glass is expected to improve, justifying the "Accumulate" rating [3][4]. - The average selling price of photovoltaic glass in Q3 2024 was approximately 13.96 RMB per square meter, reflecting a 23% decrease from Q2 2024. The inventory levels of photovoltaic glass have reached historical highs, exceeding 40 days as of the end of October 2024 [3][5]. - The report suggests that rising natural gas costs during the heating season may lead to a reduction in high-cost production capacity in the photovoltaic industry, potentially improving the supply-demand balance for photovoltaic glass [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 14,603.89 million RMB, a decrease of 8.06% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1,295.65 million RMB, down 34.18% year-on-year [5][6]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 19.02%, a decline of 2.21 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 8.91%, down 3.50 percentage points year-on-year [3][5]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 0.47 RMB, 0.80 RMB, and 1.00 RMB, respectively, reflecting significant downward revisions from previous estimates [3][4]. - The report projects a revenue of 17,998 million RMB for 2024, a decrease of 16.4% compared to 2023, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [4][6]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently valued at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 53.7 for 2024, which is expected to decrease to 31.2 in 2025 and 25.0 in 2026 as earnings recover [4][6]. - The report indicates a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.6 for 2024, remaining stable in the following years [4][6].