Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][20]. Core Viewpoints - The civil aviation fleet in China has grown from 204 aircraft in 1990 to 4,270 in 2023, achieving over 20 times growth in more than 30 years. However, the growth rate has slowed post-pandemic, with an average fleet growth rate of 3.72% expected over the next three years [2][3]. - In 2024, China's civil aviation passenger volume is expected to exceed 700 million, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, indicating a new cycle for air travel in the country [2][3]. - The demand for air travel is anticipated to steadily increase as the government implements policies to promote high-quality economic development [2][3]. Summary by Sections Fleet Growth and Supply Chain Impact - The growth rate of China's civil aviation fleet has decreased post-pandemic, with an average growth rate of 2.84% from 2020 to 2023, compared to 10.44% from 2010 to 2019. The fleet size increased from 3,903 aircraft in 2020 to 4,270 in 2023 [3][5]. - Global supply chain disruptions have affected the delivery capabilities of major aircraft manufacturers, with Boeing and Airbus experiencing significant declines in annual aircraft deliveries post-pandemic [3][6][10]. Future Passenger Volume and Airline Recommendations - The projected passenger volume for 2024 is approximately 741 million, which would be the first time it exceeds the 660 million recorded in 2019 [3][14]. - Investment opportunities are recommended in the following airlines: Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines, as they are expected to benefit from the new cycle in aviation [2][3].

市场指数 指数名称 收盘价 涨跌% 上证综指 3432.49 0.29 深证成指 10848.42 0.33 沪深 300 3988.83 (0.17) 中小 100 6589.70 (0.09) 创业板指 2261.58 (0.11) 行业表现（申万一级） 指数名称 涨跌% 指数名称 涨跌% 商贸零售 3.29 银行 (1.20) 纺织服饰 2.68 非银金融 (0.62) 轻工制造 2.48 电力设备 (0.34) 房地产 2.28 计算机 (0.07) 综合 2.20 机械设备 0.21 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银晨会聚焦-20241212 证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2024 年 12 月 12 日 ■重点关注 【基础化工】百龙创园*余嫄嫄。公司立足于功能糖赛道，客户结构优秀， 不断完善产品布局、优化产能。肠道健康与减糖需求共同促进行业持续扩容， 公司具备多品类规模化生产能力，在抗性糊精等产品方面具备领先优势。中 长期来看，公司持续研发拓展新品及海外产能布局有望打开成长空间。首次 覆盖，给予买入评级。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 产品组 证券分析师：王军 (8621)2032 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a market price of RMB 16.64 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [1][2]. Core Insights - The company, Baolong Chuangyuan, is a leading enterprise in the functional sugar sector, focusing on health-oriented sugar products. It has a strong customer base and is continuously optimizing its product layout and capacity [2][4]. - The company has maintained high revenue growth over the past five years, with a CAGR of 19.83% in revenue and 23.49% in net profit from 2019 to 2023. In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue increased by 25.48% year-on-year [2][62]. - The dietary supplement market is expected to expand, benefiting from the increasing awareness of health among consumers. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth due to its diverse product offerings [2][4]. - The new sugar substitute, allulose, presents significant opportunities, with a projected CAGR of 14.60% from 2023 to 2032 in the global market. The company has a technological edge in producing allulose [2][4]. - The company is set to release new production capacity, with projects coming online in May 2024, which will enhance its growth trajectory [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Baolong Chuangyuan focuses on health-oriented sugar products, continuously expanding its product and customer matrix. It has developed a wide range of functional food ingredients, producing over 90 different specifications [51][62]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the actual controllers holding 49.76% of the shares, ensuring stable management [57][60]. 2. Market Potential - The dietary supplement market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increased consumer health awareness and dietary upgrades. The global and Chinese prebiotic markets are projected to reach RMB 18.548 billion and RMB 3.814 billion by 2026, respectively [2][4]. - The new sugar substitute, allulose, is gaining traction, with the global market expected to grow from USD 128 million in 2023 to USD 440 million by 2032 [2][4]. 3. Production Capacity and Growth - The company is set to launch new production projects in May 2024, including a 30,000-ton soluble dietary fiber project and a 15,000-ton crystalline sugar project, which will alleviate capacity constraints [2][4]. - The company is also expanding its international footprint with a production base in Thailand, which will help reduce costs and enhance its global market presence [2][4]. 4. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with revenues increasing from RMB 421 million in 2019 to RMB 868 million in 2023, and a projected net profit of RMB 250 million in 2024 [2][62]. - The gross margin improved to 32.73% in 2023, driven by product structure optimization and stable raw material prices [70][72].

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Trade Data Summary - From January to November 2023, China's exports increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with a trade surplus of $884.67 billion[1] - In November 2023, exports grew by 6.7% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down by 6.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - Imports during the same period rose by 1.2%, with a notable decline of 3.9% in November[1] Key Trade Partners - In November, trade with ASEAN reached $87.32 billion, accounting for 16.6% of total trade, with exports to ASEAN increasing by 14.9%[1] - Exports to the EU rose by 7.2%, while imports fell by 6.6% in November, with total trade amounting to $62.76 billion[1] - Trade with the US totaled $59.73 billion, with exports increasing by 8.0% and imports declining by 11.2%[1] Industry Performance - The automotive supply chain and electromechanical products showed strong export performance, with automotive exports growing by 5.8% year-on-year from January to November[1] - High-tech products like integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment saw export growth rates of 18.8% and 9.9%, respectively[1] Economic Outlook - The US policy environment in 2024 is expected to be uncertain, with potential tariffs impacting exports to the US[1] - The Federal Reserve may maintain a slightly tight monetary policy, which could affect overseas demand for Chinese products[1] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected resilience in inflation among major economies and increasing geopolitical uncertainties[1]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2024 年 12 月 10 日 11 月通胀点评 消费好转是通胀企稳回升的重要条件 11 月 CPI 同比增速低于万得一致预期；CPI 同比增速较 10 月走低，主要是 受食品价格拖累，此外服务业价格的季节性回落也有一定影响；2025 年低基 数对 CPI 的影响比较大，预计 CPI 同比增速有望平缓上行；11 月 PPI 同比 增速超出万得一致预期，主要是受政策发力带动；但是春节前到一季度是投 资和生产的淡季，关注工业品价格向好能否持续。 ◼ 11 月 CPI 环比增速-0.6%，同比增长 0.2%，核心 CPI 同比增长 0.3%，服 务价格同比增长 0.4%，消费品价格同比持平。 ◼ 从环比看，11 月食品价格下降 2.7%，降幅超近十年同期平均水平 2.5 个 百分点，较 10 月增速下行 1.5 个百分点，非食品价格由上月持平转为下 降 0.1%；从同比看，食品价格上涨 1.0%，涨幅比上月回落 1.9 个百分点， 非食品价格由上月下降 0.3%转为持平。 ◼ 食品继续拖累 11 月 CPI 增速表现。11 月 CPI 同比增速较 10 月下降 0.1 个 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the wind power and power grid equipment industry for 2025 [1]. Core Insights - Domestic wind power installations are expected to exceed 100GW in 2025, driven by favorable demand and policy support, leading to a recovery in profitability for both complete machines and components [1]. - The report highlights the commencement of domestic offshore wind project tenders and anticipates high growth in offshore wind installations in Europe starting from 2025, creating significant market opportunities for Chinese manufacturers [1]. - The domestic power grid construction and renovation demand is expected to remain robust, with high investment levels continuing, benefiting related power equipment companies [1]. Summary by Sections Wind Power - The report forecasts that domestic wind power installations will reach approximately 88GW and 105GW in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.94% and 19.32% [1]. - The "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" for offshore wind installations indicates a potential market gap of about 36GW, prompting increased tendering activity in 2024 to support growth in 2025 [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of policy measures such as the "Thousand Villages and Ten Thousand Villages Wind Action Plan" to ensure steady growth in new energy installations [1]. Power Equipment - The report notes that the investment in the domestic main grid is expected to continue its high growth trajectory, with significant projects planned for 2025 utilizing flexible DC transmission technology [1]. - There is a strong correlation between domestic and international demand for power equipment, with increasing opportunities for exports as global utility companies ramp up capital expenditures [1]. - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from high demand in ultra-high voltage projects and those with export potential in the distribution and transformation equipment sector [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a clear direction towards recovery since the end of September 2024 [1]. Core Insights - New housing transaction area has shifted from positive to negative on a month-on-month basis, although the year-on-year growth has expanded due to a low base effect [1]. - The report highlights that the central government's commitment to stabilizing the real estate market is evident from recent policy signals, including a shift towards more proactive fiscal and monetary policies [1][1]. - The land market shows an increase in both volume and price, with a notable rise in the premium rate [1]. Summary by Sections 1. New Housing Market Tracking - In the week of November 30 to December 6, 2024, new housing transaction area in 40 cities decreased by 10.2% month-on-month but increased by 56.2% year-on-year [1][27]. - The transaction volume for new homes was 3.5 million units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 9.6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.6% [1][28]. - Inventory levels for new homes in 12 cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 10.7% year-on-year, indicating a tightening supply [1][41]. 2. Land Market Tracking - The total land transaction area across 100 cities was 28.44 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 4.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [1][22]. - The total transaction value for land reached 1226.2 billion, marking a significant month-on-month increase of 51.9% and a year-on-year increase of 51.2% [1][22]. - The average floor price for land transactions was 4312 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 45.7% and a year-on-year increase of 47.5% [1][22]. 3. Policy Overview - The report notes that the recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for more active fiscal policies and moderate monetary easing, which is expected to enhance liquidity in the market [1][1]. - Specific policies aimed at stabilizing the housing market are anticipated to be implemented, which could further support demand [1][1]. 4. Company Performance - The report indicates that the absolute return for the real estate sector was 3.3%, with a relative return of 1.8%, both showing slight improvements from the previous week [1][25]. - The price-to-earnings ratio for the real estate sector is reported at 23.43X, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.47X [1][25]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: companies expected to benefit from policy easing, those with strong positions in core cities, and local state-owned enterprises involved in debt resolution and urban renewal [1][1].

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Insights - The shipping market is expected to see growth across various vessel types in 2024, with container ships projected to have the highest growth at 10% and oil tankers the lowest at 1%. Bulk carriers and gas carriers are expected to grow by 3% and 7% respectively, while car carriers are anticipated to grow by 8% [1][46] - Global air freight demand increased by 9.8% year-on-year in October, with China's civil aviation cargo volume reaching historically high levels this year. The International Air Transport Association reported a continuous growth trend for 15 months [1][48] - Significant progress has been made in reducing logistics costs in China, with the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP steadily declining. The goal is to reduce this ratio to around 13.5% by 2027, down from 18% in 2012 [1][56] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hotspot Events - The shipping market is projected to maintain growth in 2024, with varying growth rates across vessel types. Container ships are expected to lead with a 10% increase, while oil tankers will see only a 1% increase [1][46] - In October, global air freight demand grew by 9.8% year-on-year, marking a significant increase in China's civil aviation cargo volume [1][48] - The logistics cost reduction plan aims to lower the ratio of logistics costs to GDP to 13.5% by 2027, reflecting a decrease from 18% in 2012 [1][56] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air freight prices have shown an upward trend from late November to early December, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 5585.00 points, a 6.9% increase from the previous month [1][60] - The shipping price index has increased, while dry bulk freight rates have decreased. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) reported a 1.01% increase week-on-week [1][72] - In October, express delivery volume increased by 24% year-on-year, with total express delivery revenue rising by 14.53% [1][90] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [1] - It highlights investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter [1] - The report also suggests looking into cruise and ferry investment opportunities, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares [1]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|----------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n市场指数 指数名称 | —— | 晨会聚焦 \n收盘价 | 涨跌 % | 2024 年 12 月 10 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241210 | | 上证综指 | | 3402.53 (0.05) | | | | 深证成指 | | 10731.66 (0.55) | | | | 沪深 300 | | 3966.57 (0.17) | | ■ 重点关注 | | | | | | | | 中小 100 创业板指 | | ...