Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumption trends, particularly "emerging consumption" and "AI+ applications," as key investment themes for the upcoming year [2][26][34] - The Central Economic Work Conference highlighted the need to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency, indicating a shift towards a more proactive fiscal policy [2][16][28] - The report notes that the "old-for-new" consumption policies have significantly stimulated sales, with over 1 trillion yuan in sales driven by these initiatives, particularly in the automotive and home appliance sectors [28][34] Group 2 - The report identifies a structural shift in consumer spending, moving towards a more comprehensive approach to domestic demand expansion, with a focus on various sectors beyond traditional consumer goods [2][28] - The "first-release economy" and "ice and snow economy" are highlighted as emerging sectors with strong growth potential, supported by favorable policies and market trends [34][39] - The report indicates that the retail and dining sectors are undergoing significant reforms, with traditional supermarkets adapting new business models to enhance customer experience and sales performance [37][39] Group 3 - The report discusses the performance of various sectors post the Central Economic Work Conference, noting that consumer sectors like retail and food and beverage saw positive movements, while technology sectors displayed mixed results [26][28] - The report suggests that the AI industry, particularly applications like "Doubao," is entering a phase of rapid user growth, indicating a strong potential for commercialization [2][34] - The report anticipates that the personal pension system's expansion will lead to a more balanced pension structure in the future, impacting investment strategies [2][28]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The new energy vehicle market is experiencing robust growth, with November sales reaching 1.512 million units, a year-on-year increase of 47.4% [32]. - The photovoltaic industry is stabilizing, with upstream silicon material prices beginning to rise despite high inventory levels. Major companies are quoting prices above 0.69 yuan/W for solar modules [1][32]. - The wind power sector is expected to see steady demand growth, driven by domestic and overseas project developments [1]. - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating, with companies involved in battery, materials, and equipment likely to benefit [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing push for power system reforms in China, which is expected to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid projects, maintaining high demand for related equipment [1]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - The report notes a significant increase in sales, with a total of 67.2 GWh of power batteries installed in November, marking a 49.7% year-on-year growth [32]. Photovoltaic Market - The report indicates that after a recent industry self-discipline meeting, prices for silicon materials are attempting to rise, with current prices for domestic silicon materials around 37-39 yuan/kg [28]. - The price for P-type monocrystalline silicon wafers is reported at 1.1-1.15 yuan per piece, while N-type wafers are stabilizing at around 1.05 yuan [28][30]. Wind Power - The report anticipates steady progress in domestic wind power bidding and construction, with improved profitability expected in the complete machine and component sectors [1]. Solid-State Batteries - The report emphasizes the rapid development of solid-state battery technology, suggesting that companies with relevant layouts in batteries, materials, and equipment will benefit [1]. Power Equipment - The report highlights the ongoing reforms in the power system, which are expected to boost demand for ultra-high voltage and main grid equipment [1]. Hydrogen Energy - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production and those benefiting from hydrogen infrastructure development [1].

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Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The main task for the real estate industry in 2025 will be the "Big Old Renovation," focusing on urban village renovations and the monetization of old housing [1][15] - The renovation scope has expanded from 35 major cities to nearly 300 cities, with a focus on monetary compensation to facilitate the renovation process [15] - The previous round of shantytown renovations (2015-2018) involved 24.42 million units with a total investment of 6.6 trillion yuan, primarily funded by special loans [1][3] - The estimated total investment for the initial 1 million units of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations could reach 1.45 to 2.11 trillion yuan, with an average annual investment of 484.7 to 702.4 billion yuan if spread over three years [1][3] Summary by Sections 1. "Big Old Renovation" as the Main Task - The focus will be on urban village renovations, with a significant expansion in the number of cities involved [1][15] - The previous shantytown renovation period saw substantial investments and was crucial for inventory reduction [1][3] 2. Land Acquisition and Inventory Reduction - The primary direction for inventory reduction will be the acquisition of idle land, with a total estimated funding requirement of approximately 12.7 trillion yuan for all residential and commercial land [1][3] - The acquisition of unsold residential properties is estimated to require around 1.42 trillion yuan [1][3] 3. Market Valuation and Recovery Potential - The current valuation of the real estate sector is at a historical low, with significant potential for upward correction [1][3] - The sector has shown resilience and upward elasticity in returns, indicating a favorable investment environment [1][3] 4. Companies with Regional Advantages - Companies focusing on core first and second-tier cities are expected to benefit from market differentiation and increased market share [1][3] - Specific companies such as China Overseas, Binjiang, and Greentown are highlighted for their strong regional advantages [1][3] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines: companies expected to improve post-policy easing, those with strong core city layouts, and local state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and inventory acquisition [1][3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][20]. Core Viewpoints - The civil aviation fleet in China has grown from 204 aircraft in 1990 to 4,270 in 2023, achieving over 20 times growth in more than 30 years. However, the growth rate has slowed post-pandemic, with an average fleet growth rate of 3.72% expected over the next three years [2][3]. - In 2024, China's civil aviation passenger volume is expected to exceed 700 million, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, indicating a new cycle for air travel in the country [2][3]. - The demand for air travel is anticipated to steadily increase as the government implements policies to promote high-quality economic development [2][3]. Summary by Sections Fleet Growth and Supply Chain Impact - The growth rate of China's civil aviation fleet has decreased post-pandemic, with an average growth rate of 2.84% from 2020 to 2023, compared to 10.44% from 2010 to 2019. The fleet size increased from 3,903 aircraft in 2020 to 4,270 in 2023 [3][5]. - Global supply chain disruptions have affected the delivery capabilities of major aircraft manufacturers, with Boeing and Airbus experiencing significant declines in annual aircraft deliveries post-pandemic [3][6][10]. Future Passenger Volume and Airline Recommendations - The projected passenger volume for 2024 is approximately 741 million, which would be the first time it exceeds the 660 million recorded in 2019 [3][14]. - Investment opportunities are recommended in the following airlines: Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines, as they are expected to benefit from the new cycle in aviation [2][3].

市场指数 指数名称 收盘价 涨跌% 上证综指 3432.49 0.29 深证成指 10848.42 0.33 沪深 300 3988.83 (0.17) 中小 100 6589.70 (0.09) 创业板指 2261.58 (0.11) 行业表现（申万一级） 指数名称 涨跌% 指数名称 涨跌% 商贸零售 3.29 银行 (1.20) 纺织服饰 2.68 非银金融 (0.62) 轻工制造 2.48 电力设备 (0.34) 房地产 2.28 计算机 (0.07) 综合 2.20 机械设备 0.21 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银晨会聚焦-20241212 证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2024 年 12 月 12 日 ■重点关注 【基础化工】百龙创园*余嫄嫄。公司立足于功能糖赛道，客户结构优秀， 不断完善产品布局、优化产能。肠道健康与减糖需求共同促进行业持续扩容， 公司具备多品类规模化生产能力，在抗性糊精等产品方面具备领先优势。中 长期来看，公司持续研发拓展新品及海外产能布局有望打开成长空间。首次 覆盖，给予买入评级。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 产品组 证券分析师：王军 (8621)2032 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a market price of RMB 16.64 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [1][2]. Core Insights - The company, Baolong Chuangyuan, is a leading enterprise in the functional sugar sector, focusing on health-oriented sugar products. It has a strong customer base and is continuously optimizing its product layout and capacity [2][4]. - The company has maintained high revenue growth over the past five years, with a CAGR of 19.83% in revenue and 23.49% in net profit from 2019 to 2023. In the first three quarters of 2024, revenue increased by 25.48% year-on-year [2][62]. - The dietary supplement market is expected to expand, benefiting from the increasing awareness of health among consumers. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth due to its diverse product offerings [2][4]. - The new sugar substitute, allulose, presents significant opportunities, with a projected CAGR of 14.60% from 2023 to 2032 in the global market. The company has a technological edge in producing allulose [2][4]. - The company is set to release new production capacity, with projects coming online in May 2024, which will enhance its growth trajectory [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Baolong Chuangyuan focuses on health-oriented sugar products, continuously expanding its product and customer matrix. It has developed a wide range of functional food ingredients, producing over 90 different specifications [51][62]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the actual controllers holding 49.76% of the shares, ensuring stable management [57][60]. 2. Market Potential - The dietary supplement market is expected to grow significantly, driven by increased consumer health awareness and dietary upgrades. The global and Chinese prebiotic markets are projected to reach RMB 18.548 billion and RMB 3.814 billion by 2026, respectively [2][4]. - The new sugar substitute, allulose, is gaining traction, with the global market expected to grow from USD 128 million in 2023 to USD 440 million by 2032 [2][4]. 3. Production Capacity and Growth - The company is set to launch new production projects in May 2024, including a 30,000-ton soluble dietary fiber project and a 15,000-ton crystalline sugar project, which will alleviate capacity constraints [2][4]. - The company is also expanding its international footprint with a production base in Thailand, which will help reduce costs and enhance its global market presence [2][4]. 4. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with revenues increasing from RMB 421 million in 2019 to RMB 868 million in 2023, and a projected net profit of RMB 250 million in 2024 [2][62]. - The gross margin improved to 32.73% in 2023, driven by product structure optimization and stable raw material prices [70][72].

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Trade Data Summary - From January to November 2023, China's exports increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with a trade surplus of $884.67 billion[1] - In November 2023, exports grew by 6.7% year-on-year, but the growth rate slowed down by 6.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - Imports during the same period rose by 1.2%, with a notable decline of 3.9% in November[1] Key Trade Partners - In November, trade with ASEAN reached $87.32 billion, accounting for 16.6% of total trade, with exports to ASEAN increasing by 14.9%[1] - Exports to the EU rose by 7.2%, while imports fell by 6.6% in November, with total trade amounting to $62.76 billion[1] - Trade with the US totaled $59.73 billion, with exports increasing by 8.0% and imports declining by 11.2%[1] Industry Performance - The automotive supply chain and electromechanical products showed strong export performance, with automotive exports growing by 5.8% year-on-year from January to November[1] - High-tech products like integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment saw export growth rates of 18.8% and 9.9%, respectively[1] Economic Outlook - The US policy environment in 2024 is expected to be uncertain, with potential tariffs impacting exports to the US[1] - The Federal Reserve may maintain a slightly tight monetary policy, which could affect overseas demand for Chinese products[1] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected resilience in inflation among major economies and increasing geopolitical uncertainties[1]

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2024 年 12 月 10 日 11 月通胀点评 消费好转是通胀企稳回升的重要条件 11 月 CPI 同比增速低于万得一致预期；CPI 同比增速较 10 月走低，主要是 受食品价格拖累，此外服务业价格的季节性回落也有一定影响；2025 年低基 数对 CPI 的影响比较大，预计 CPI 同比增速有望平缓上行；11 月 PPI 同比 增速超出万得一致预期，主要是受政策发力带动；但是春节前到一季度是投 资和生产的淡季，关注工业品价格向好能否持续。 ◼ 11 月 CPI 环比增速-0.6%，同比增长 0.2%，核心 CPI 同比增长 0.3%，服 务价格同比增长 0.4%，消费品价格同比持平。 ◼ 从环比看，11 月食品价格下降 2.7%，降幅超近十年同期平均水平 2.5 个 百分点，较 10 月增速下行 1.5 个百分点，非食品价格由上月持平转为下 降 0.1%；从同比看，食品价格上涨 1.0%，涨幅比上月回落 1.9 个百分点， 非食品价格由上月下降 0.3%转为持平。 ◼ 食品继续拖累 11 月 CPI 增速表现。11 月 CPI 同比增速较 10 月下降 0.1 个 ...