| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n10 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— 晨会聚焦 \n | 股票名称 | | 2024 年 10 月 30 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 | | 600383.SH | | 金地集团 | | -20241030 | | 3900.HK | | 绿城中国 | | | | | | | ■ | 重点关注 | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 -W | | | | 002648.SZ | | 卫星化学 | | 【 计算机 】税友股份 * 杨思睿 刘桐彤。公司发布 2024 年三季报，前三季度 | | 688 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in new ship orders, driven by high freight rates during the pandemic, which is expected to lead to a substantial increase in fleet capacity. The total new container ship orders for this year are projected to reach 2.2 million TEU [1][14] - The 2024 winter-spring flight schedule commenced on October 27, with a further orderly recovery of international routes. Domestic airlines plan to operate approximately 95,968 domestic flights weekly, which is stable compared to last year and represents a 33% increase from the 2019/20 winter-spring season [1][16][17] - The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is expected to boost the express delivery sector, with significant increases in package collection and delivery volumes observed in late October [1][25][26] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hot Events - New ship orders are increasing, with a forecast of 2.2 million TEU for 2024, while Brazil's corn exports have decreased by 25.59% from June to September 2023, negatively impacting the dry bulk market [1][15] - The 2024 winter-spring flight schedule has begun, with 194 airlines planning to operate 118,000 flights weekly, marking a 1.2% increase from last year [1][16] - The express delivery sector is entering its peak season, with a record of 7.29 billion packages collected in a single day, reflecting a 74% year-on-year increase [1][26] 2. Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - Air freight prices have shown an upward trend, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 5,006 points, up 12.2% week-on-week [2][30] - In September 2024, domestic cargo flights increased by 13.94% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 30.80% [2][36] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the equipment and manufacturing export chain, recommending companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [2] - It also highlights investment opportunities in the low-altitude economy, recommending SF Holding and CITIC Offshore Helicopter [2] - The report emphasizes the potential in the cruise and ferry sectors, recommending Bohai Ferry and Straits Shares, as well as opportunities in e-commerce express delivery with companies like Jitu Express and Zhongtong Express [2]

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in the profits of industrial enterprises in China, with a total profit of 52,281.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.5% [3] - The manufacturing sector's support for industrial enterprise profits continues to weaken, with a notable drop in profit growth rates across various sub-industries, particularly in raw material processing [2][4] - The report emphasizes the need for fiscal policy to stimulate domestic demand, as current industrial profit levels are insufficient [4] Macroeconomic Overview - In September 2024, the profits of industrial enterprises fell by 27.1% year-on-year, a significant increase in the decline compared to August [3] - The operating income of industrial enterprises grew by 2.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while operating costs increased by 2.4%, indicating pressure on profit margins [3] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises was 5.3%, slightly down from previous months, reflecting ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector [3] Industry Performance - The report notes that the raw materials processing industry has increasingly dragged down profit growth, with significant contributions to the decline from sectors like petroleum, coal, and non-metallic mineral products [4] - High-tech manufacturing's positive contribution to profit growth has diminished, indicating a broader trend of weakening support from the manufacturing sector [4] Fixed Income Insights - The report discusses the "Trump trade" in the context of U.S. monetary and fiscal policy, suggesting that market expectations may be overly optimistic regarding its impact [5][6] - Polls indicate a slight lead for Trump over Harris, which has influenced market dynamics, including a rise in the U.S. dollar and bond yields [5][6] Fund Allocation Analysis - In the third quarter of 2024, active equity funds showed minor adjustments in allocations, increasing their positions in electric equipment and new energy sectors while reducing exposure to utilities and non-ferrous metals [8] - The top five sectors for fund allocation were electronics, Hong Kong stocks, pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, and food and beverage, with notable increases in electric equipment and non-bank financials [8] Company-Specific Insights - The report highlights that Huadian Technology's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 9.011 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.15%, with a net profit of 1.848 billion yuan, up 93.94% [11] - The company is expanding its high-end production capacity to meet the growing demand from AI and high-speed computing applications [10][12] - Weir Technology reported a record high quarterly performance in Q3 2024, driven by the increasing penetration of high-end mobile CIS in domestic flagship smartphones and growth in automotive CIS due to the autonomous driving market [13][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 73.4% for net profit attributable to shareholders and 58.2% for net profit excluding non-recurring items [3][4] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters reached 1.28 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.4% [3] - The successful registration of the "Xiyou" large model algorithm enhances the company's AI capabilities in the tax and finance sector, potentially expanding its business scenarios [4] - The company holds a strong position in the tax IT sector, supported by a substantial data barrier and advanced technology integration [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 470 million RMB, a 7.3% increase year-on-year, with net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items reaching 27.7 million RMB and 23.4 million RMB respectively [4] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 197 million RMB, 296 million RMB, and 386 million RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.48 RMB, 0.73 RMB, and 0.95 RMB [5][4] Market Position - The company has a robust data foundation, covering nearly 8 million enterprises and over 10 million relationship knowledge graphs, which strengthens its competitive edge in the tax IT industry [4] - The report emphasizes the company's leading position in the financial technology sector, driven by its research in big data, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence [4] Valuation - The report adjusts the earnings per share (EPS) forecast downwards by 0.3% to 9.4% for the years 2024-2026, reflecting the company's AI research investments [4] - The projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 59X, 39X, and 30X respectively [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][36]. Core Viewpoints - The social services sector has seen a 9.13% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 7th among 31 sectors in the Shenwan classification, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 7.35 percentage points [2][14]. - The inbound tourism market continues to thrive, with a 48.8% year-on-year increase in foreign visitors to China in Q3, reaching 8.186 million [2][22]. - The upcoming Q3 earnings reports from several companies in the sector are expected to be a focal point for investors [2][31]. Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.55% to 3299.70, while the CSI 300 increased by 1.78% to 3956.42 during the same period [2][14]. - Among the sub-sectors, education led with a 13.80% increase, followed by tourism and scenic spots at 8.82%, and professional services at 8.13% [2][16]. - The number of domestic flights decreased by 2.93% week-on-week, but international flights have recovered to 79.24% of 2019 levels [2][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong earnings growth potential, including Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [2][31]. - Chain hotel brands like Junting Hotel and Jinjiang Hotel are expected to benefit from the recovery in business travel [2][31]. - Companies involved in cross-border tourism and duty-free markets, such as China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing, are also recommended [2][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] - The market price is noted at RMB 48.00, with a sector rating of "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 20.189 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.67%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 32.98% to RMB 4.620 billion [3][4] - The company is increasing its R&D investments, with R&D expenses reaching RMB 4.549 billion in Q1-Q3 2024, a 22.10% increase year-on-year [4] - The company has established a diversified product portfolio, including chemical drugs, monoclonal antibodies, and ADC drugs, which is expected to contribute to future revenue growth [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 20.189 billion, a 18.67% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 4.620 billion, up 32.98% [4][5] - The company’s Q3 revenue was RMB 6.589 billion, reflecting a 12.72% year-on-year growth, while net profit for the same period was RMB 1.188 billion, a 1.91% increase [4] R&D and Innovation - The company is actively pursuing international collaborations and has received clinical trial qualifications for several innovative drugs, including three ADC products that gained fast track designation from the FDA [4][5] - The total number of invention patents applied globally reached 2,527 as of H1 2024 [4] Product Diversification - The company has developed a mature platform for various drug types, including ADCs and mRNA, which broadens its product line and aims to enhance its market presence in oncology and chronic diseases [4][5] Valuation - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are RMB 5.593 billion, RMB 6.704 billion, and RMB 7.975 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.88, RMB 1.05, and RMB 1.25 [4][5] - The PE ratios for the same years are expected to be 55.5, 46.3, and 38.9, indicating a positive outlook for the company's long-term growth [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a market price of RMB 9.83 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][3]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance showed a slight decline due to high base effects from previous year, with revenue of RMB 836 million, down 4.69% year-on-year, and net profit of RMB 457 million, down 5.54% year-on-year. However, new projects are expected to contribute positively to future performance, maintaining the "Buy" rating [3][4]. - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 2.013 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.46%, and a net profit of RMB 1.008 billion, up 28.04% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company has seen strong performance from new projects, with significant audience turnout during the National Day holiday, where 13 scenic spots received 2.6 million visitors, a 59.7% increase year-on-year [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 836 million, down 4.69% year-on-year, while net profit was RMB 457 million, down 5.54% year-on-year. The first three quarters of 2024 saw revenue of RMB 2.013 billion, up 24.46%, and net profit of RMB 1.008 billion, up 28.04% [3][4]. - The company adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to RMB 0.44, 0.50, and 0.66, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22.4, 19.8, and 17.6 [4][3]. Project Performance - Existing projects showed mixed results, with some underperforming compared to last year, while new projects like the West Xi'an project and the Three Gorges project have performed exceptionally well, indicating strong growth potential [3][4]. - The company plans to focus on its core business and may consider divesting its stake in Huafang Group, which has a low impairment risk [3][4]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of RMB 25.759 billion and a circulating share count of 2,351.39 million [2][3]. - The company is positioned well within the tourism and scenic area sector, with a strong recovery in visitor numbers and performance metrics [3][4].

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 10 月 28 日 600519.SH 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 1,558.85 板块评级:强于大市 本报告要点 ◼ 贵州茅台 2024 年 3 季报业绩点评 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (7.5) 11.4 9.0 (7.1) 相对上证综指 (18.9) (2.5) (5.3) (18.0) (23%) (15%) (7%) 0% 8% 15% Oct-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24 贵州茅台 上证综指 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------|-------|------------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 主要股东 | | 百万 ) | | 中国贵州茅 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 21.84 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.33 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, and a net profit of RMB 333 million, up 22.2% year-on-year. In Q3 2024, revenue and net profit were RMB 574 million and RMB 38 million, respectively, showing increases of 15.8% and 108.8% year-on-year [3][5]. - The company's product structure is continuously upgrading, with a significant increase in the revenue contribution from products priced above RMB 300, which reached RMB 470 million, a 43.8% increase year-on-year [3]. - The company has optimized its expense ratio, leading to improved profit margins, with a net profit margin of 6.6% in Q3 2024, an increase of 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [3][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 2.33 billion, a 15.3% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 333 million, up 22.2% year-on-year. Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 574 million, with a net profit of RMB 38 million, reflecting a 15.8% and 108.8% increase year-on-year, respectively [3][5]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 61.1%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved to 6.6%, up 3.0 percentage points year-on-year [5]. Product and Market Development - The company has seen a robust performance in its product segments, particularly in the RMB 300 and above price range, which accounted for 20.8% of total revenue, an increase of 4.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company is expanding its presence in the provincial markets, with revenue from outside the province reaching RMB 550 million, a 15.7% increase year-on-year, maintaining a stable income contribution [3]. Expense Management - The company has effectively reduced its expense ratios, with the selling expense ratio and management expense ratio decreasing to 24.1% and 13.1%, respectively, in Q3 2024 [3][5]. - The total liabilities stood at RMB 1.08 billion, with a stable contract liability of RMB 480 million, indicating good cash flow management [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of RMB 31.478 billion for Q1-Q3 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached RMB 2.562 billion, up 17.05% year-on-year [3][4]. - The medical aesthetics segment is experiencing overall positive growth, with domestic revenue increasing steadily despite challenges in overseas markets. The domestic subsidiary, Xinkeli Aesthetics, reported revenue of RMB 909 million, a 10.31% increase year-on-year [4]. - The company continues to invest in research and development, with R&D expenditure of RMB 1.607 billion in Q1-Q3 2024, representing 11.69% of the pharmaceutical industrial revenue. The innovative product pipeline has exceeded 70 projects [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 31.478 billion, a 3.56% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 2.562 billion, up 17.05% year-on-year. In Q3 2024 alone, revenue was RMB 10.513 billion, a 5.03% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 866 million, up 14.71% year-on-year [3][4]. - The pharmaceutical industrial segment reported revenue of RMB 9.941 billion for Q1-Q3 2024, a 10.53% increase year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical commercial segment achieved revenue of RMB 20.571 billion, a 1.38% increase year-on-year [4]. Market Segments - The medical aesthetics segment reported revenue of RMB 1.909 billion for Q1-Q3 2024, a 1.90% increase year-on-year. The UK subsidiary, Sinclair, faced a revenue decline of 20.30% to approximately RMB 776 million due to global economic challenges, while the domestic subsidiary saw a 10.31% increase in revenue [4]. Research and Development - The company invested RMB 1.607 billion in R&D for Q1-Q3 2024, with direct R&D spending of RMB 1.149 billion. The focus areas for innovation include endocrinology, autoimmune diseases, and oncology, with over 70 projects in the pipeline [4]. Valuation - The projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 3.447 billion, RMB 4.113 billion, and RMB 4.975 billion, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.96, RMB 2.34, and RMB 2.84. The price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 17.2x, 14.4x, and 11.9x for the respective years [4][5].