Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing of the current account surplus in the first half of the year, primarily due to a deficit in service trade, while the goods trade surplus saw a slight increase [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding the use of debt funds as a key highlight from the recent press conference by the Ministry of Finance, indicating a significant scale of debt replacement measures is anticipated [3][4] - The U.S. CPI data for September shows a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with core CPI rising to 3.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [5][6] Economic Overview - The current account surplus has decreased year-on-year, with service trade deficits being the main contributor, while the goods trade surplus has slightly increased [2] - There has been an improvement in net inflows of foreign investment, with a shift towards net increases in domestic RMB bonds held by foreign investors [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to expand the scope of special government bonds to support local government financing and improve the structure of the domestic real estate market [3][4] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI for September reported a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, with core CPI at 3.3% [5] - Food prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while energy prices decreased by 1.9%, indicating mixed inflationary pressures [5] - The core services inflation is being dragged down by housing costs, with a notable decline in rent and owners' equivalent rent [5][6]

Core Views - The report maintains a strategic optimism regarding the A-share market, supported by positive signals from fiscal policy announcements and the expectation of accelerated policy implementation [1][2]. Fiscal Policy and Market Confidence - The recent press conference by the National Development and Reform Commission highlighted the government's commitment to increasing fiscal policy efforts to stimulate high-quality economic development, which is expected to boost market confidence [2][13]. - The fiscal measures include allowing special bonds for land reserves and supporting the acquisition of existing housing, which are crucial for improving liquidity in the real estate sector [21][2]. Industry Performance and Trends - The report notes a phase of adjustment in the market following a rapid valuation recovery at the end of September, with most sectors experiencing declines except for comprehensive finance [18][2]. - Non-bank and technology sectors show stronger resilience compared to cyclical industries like food, electric vehicles, and real estate, which have experienced significant fluctuations [18][2]. - The real estate sector is highlighted as a key economic indicator, with recent policies expected to catalyze growth in the upstream steel, aluminum, cement, and engineering machinery industries, as well as in home appliances and furniture [21][2]. Tesla's Innovations - Tesla's recent product launch introduced three revolutionary products: Cybercab, Robovan, and Optimus, which are set to redefine urban transportation and integrate robotics into daily life [25][26]. - Cybercab aims to provide low-cost autonomous taxi services, with operational costs projected at $0.20 per mile, while Robovan targets urban public transport and logistics [25][26]. - Optimus, a humanoid robot, is designed to assist in various tasks, potentially transforming household and industrial operations [25][26]. Market Overview - The report indicates that the market may enter a phase of moderate fluctuations, with a focus on upcoming fiscal policy developments and external factors such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the U.S. elections [2][13]. - The overall sentiment remains positive for the medium term, with expectations of profit recovery leading to potential upward trends in the market [2][13].

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Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance plans to expand the scope of debt fund usage, highlighting a significant debt replacement initiative expected soon[1] - The government aims to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal policy to promote high-quality economic development, ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures[1] - By mid-2024, the growth rates of disposable income, net operating income, and net property income per capita have declined by 1.0%, 0.4%, and 1.1% respectively compared to Q1[1] Group 2: Local Government Debt Management - In the first eight months of 2024, local government fund budget revenue reached CNY 23,904 billion, a 52.9% decline compared to the same period in 2021[1] - Local government fund budget expenditures amounted to CNY 46,303 billion, down 19.6% from 2021, resulting in a budget gap exceeding CNY 2 trillion[1] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated over CNY 2.2 trillion in local government bond quotas for 2023 and CNY 1.2 trillion for 2024 to support the resolution of hidden local debt[1] Group 3: Special Bonds and Banking Sector Support - The issuance of special bonds will be used to supplement the core Tier 1 capital of major state-owned commercial banks, with an average core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of 12.3% as of June 2024[1] - The Ministry of Finance is expected to allow special bond funds to be used for purchasing existing residential properties, aiming to improve the structure of the domestic real estate market[1] Group 4: Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with strong global inflation resilience, increasing recession expectations in Europe and the U.S., and escalating geopolitical complexities[1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][23]. Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical and medical beauty sectors are expected to have recovery opportunities despite the current low valuation levels [2][4]. - The Shenyin Wanguo Pharmaceutical Bio Index fell by 6.00% from October 8 to October 11, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.75 percentage points [3][10]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the pharmaceutical bio sector is 26.30 times, indicating a significant recovery compared to July-August 2024, but still at a relatively low level historically [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overall Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Pharmaceutical Bio Index ranked 18th with a decline of 6.00% from October 8 to October 11, 2024, compared to a 3.25% drop in the CSI 300 Index [10]. - All sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical bio sector experienced declines during this period, underperforming the CSI 300 Index [12]. Valuation Performance - The pharmaceutical bio sector's valuation remains at a low level historically, with a TTM P/E ratio of 26.30 as of October 11, 2024 [15][19]. - The sector has faced pressure on revenue and profit growth due to high bases and anti-corruption measures in the first half of 2024, but performance is expected to improve in the second half [4][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative investment opportunities, particularly in innovative medical devices and drugs that are entering rapid sales growth phases [5]. - Companies to watch include: - Innovative Devices: Baijun Medical, Sanyou Medical, Aikang Medical, etc. - Innovative Drugs: Heng Rui Medical, Xinda Biologics, etc. - Other sectors include traditional Chinese medicine, raw materials, CXO, medical services, vaccines, and retail pharmacies [5].

Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI year-on-year is 2.4%, down from 2.5% in August, while month-on-month remains at 0.2%[1] - Core CPI year-on-year increased to 3.3% from 3.2%, with a month-on-month change of 0.3%[1] - Food prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while energy prices decreased by 1.9%[1] Inflation Trends - Core goods inflation month-on-month increased by 0.2%, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2%[1] - Used car prices rose by 1.3% month-on-month, while clothing prices increased by 0.8%[1] - Core services inflation remained stable at 0.4% month-on-month, but housing components showed a decline[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 4.073%[1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.05%, while gold and silver prices increased by 0.85% and 2.17%, respectively[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The September CPI data is expected to have limited impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with labor market data being a more significant factor[1] - There is an expectation of two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the remaining meetings of the year, potentially continuing into 2025[1] Risks and Considerations - The report highlights risks related to unexpected Federal Reserve monetary policy changes and geopolitical conflicts[1]

Group 1: Current Account and Trade Balance - The current account surplus decreased by $42.3 billion year-on-year to $93.7 billion, accounting for 1.1% of GDP, down 0.5 percentage points[2] - The service trade deficit increased from $90.3 billion to $123 billion, primarily due to a 37% rise in travel expenditures to $120.5 billion, reflecting a recovery in cross-border travel demand[2] - The goods trade surplus remained stable, increasing by $1.8 billion to $288.4 billion, marking the second-highest level for the same period historically[2] Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Net foreign investment inflow improved, rising from $15.6 billion to $91.7 billion, driven by a shift from net outflow in securities investment to a net inflow of $69.1 billion[2] - Debt investment saw a net inflow of $25.6 billion, reversing a net outflow of $78.9 billion from the previous year, indicating a strong interest in domestic bonds[4] - Equity investment net outflow decreased from $75.3 billion to $23 billion, influenced by the continued weakness in A-shares[4] Group 3: Outward Investment Dynamics - Outward investment net outflow increased by $87.2 billion to $214.4 billion, with significant contributions from other investments and securities investments[6] - Direct investment net outflow rose to $108.9 billion, marking a historical high for the same period[6] - The net outflow in securities investment surged from $52.4 billion to $96.9 billion, reflecting domestic investors capitalizing on overseas market gains[6] Group 4: External Debt Stability - As of June 2024, the net external debt of the private sector decreased to $465.6 billion, down $75.9 billion from the end of 2023, with a notable reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio from 3.0% to 2.6%[17] - The proportion of domestic currency-denominated external debt reached a historical high of 49%, effectively reducing exchange rate risk[17] - The improvement in currency mismatch in the private sector since the "8.11" exchange rate reform has contributed to the resilience of the domestic foreign exchange market[17]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the current market sentiment is driven by the expectation of domestic policy improvements and a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, leading to a recovery in risk assets, particularly in the A-share market [2][13][16] - It notes that both China and the US are currently in a replenishment cycle, which historically favors risk assets such as stocks and commodities over bonds during this phase [2][16][18] - The report suggests that the A-share market has seen a significant rebound since late September, primarily due to a shift in policy tone that has led to valuation recovery, indicating that there is still room for further upward movement in valuations [2][21] Group 2 - The report identifies potential sector rotations, emphasizing that cyclical industries such as construction materials, light industry, automotive, and non-bank financials have shown higher probabilities of relative outperformance during recovery phases [2][25] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the sustainability of policy releases and economic data trends, as these will be critical in determining the duration and strength of the current market rally [21][25] - The report also points out that the upcoming merger and acquisition cycle is expected to boost market sentiment, as it historically serves as an effective means for companies to achieve rapid growth [2][21][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment due to recent policy adjustments and improved transaction volumes [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant improvement in year-on-year transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, driven by favorable macroeconomic policies and increased consumer confidence [1][2]. - New home transaction area decreased by 30.1% week-on-week but increased by 117.9% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend [1]. - Second-hand home transactions saw a remarkable year-on-year increase of 1459.4%, despite a week-on-week decline of 24.2% [1]. Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of September 28 to October 4, new home transactions in 40 cities totaled 16,000 units, a week-on-week decrease of 40.9% but a year-on-year increase of 94.1% [8]. - The new home transaction area was 184.2 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 30.1% and a year-on-year increase of 117.9% [8][29]. - Transaction volumes varied across city tiers, with first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showing respective week-on-week declines of 34.1%, 41.1%, and 45.6% [8]. 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In 18 cities, second-hand home transactions totaled 7,000 units, down 58.6% week-on-week but up 1018.8% year-on-year [29]. - The transaction area for second-hand homes was 111.5 million square meters, with a week-on-week decline of 24.2% and a year-on-year increase of 1459.4% [29]. 3. Inventory Tracking - The new home inventory in 12 cities was 9,727 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [24]. - The inventory turnover period for new homes was 21.3 months, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.4 months and a year-on-year increase of 2.4 months [24]. 4. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions was 1,971.6 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 78.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 25.0% [4]. - The total land transaction value reached 652.3 billion yuan, marking a week-on-week increase of 611.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.7% [4]. 5. Policy Overview - Recent adjustments in mortgage pricing mechanisms and administrative policies in major cities are expected to stimulate market activity and improve buyer sentiment [1][2].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------|---------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n10 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— 晨会聚焦 | \n股票名称 | | 2024 年 10 月 10 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241010 | | 600383.SH | | 金地集团 | | | | 3900.HK | | 绿城中国 | | | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 -W | | ■ 重点关注 | | | | | | | | 002648.SZ 6 ...