Group 1: Economic Policy Insights - The Ministry of Finance plans to expand the scope of debt fund usage, highlighting a significant debt replacement initiative expected soon[1] - The government aims to enhance counter-cyclical fiscal policy to promote high-quality economic development, ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures[1] - By mid-2024, the growth rates of disposable income, net operating income, and net property income per capita have declined by 1.0%, 0.4%, and 1.1% respectively compared to Q1[1] Group 2: Local Government Debt Management - In the first eight months of 2024, local government fund budget revenue reached CNY 23,904 billion, a 52.9% decline compared to the same period in 2021[1] - Local government fund budget expenditures amounted to CNY 46,303 billion, down 19.6% from 2021, resulting in a budget gap exceeding CNY 2 trillion[1] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated over CNY 2.2 trillion in local government bond quotas for 2023 and CNY 1.2 trillion for 2024 to support the resolution of hidden local debt[1] Group 3: Special Bonds and Banking Sector Support - The issuance of special bonds will be used to supplement the core Tier 1 capital of major state-owned commercial banks, with an average core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of 12.3% as of June 2024[1] - The Ministry of Finance is expected to allow special bond funds to be used for purchasing existing residential properties, aiming to improve the structure of the domestic real estate market[1] Group 4: Risk Considerations - There are risks associated with strong global inflation resilience, increasing recession expectations in Europe and the U.S., and escalating geopolitical complexities[1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][23]. Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical and medical beauty sectors are expected to have recovery opportunities despite the current low valuation levels [2][4]. - The Shenyin Wanguo Pharmaceutical Bio Index fell by 6.00% from October 8 to October 11, 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.75 percentage points [3][10]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the pharmaceutical bio sector is 26.30 times, indicating a significant recovery compared to July-August 2024, but still at a relatively low level historically [3][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overall Performance - The Shenyin Wanguo Pharmaceutical Bio Index ranked 18th with a decline of 6.00% from October 8 to October 11, 2024, compared to a 3.25% drop in the CSI 300 Index [10]. - All sub-sectors within the pharmaceutical bio sector experienced declines during this period, underperforming the CSI 300 Index [12]. Valuation Performance - The pharmaceutical bio sector's valuation remains at a low level historically, with a TTM P/E ratio of 26.30 as of October 11, 2024 [15][19]. - The sector has faced pressure on revenue and profit growth due to high bases and anti-corruption measures in the first half of 2024, but performance is expected to improve in the second half [4][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative investment opportunities, particularly in innovative medical devices and drugs that are entering rapid sales growth phases [5]. - Companies to watch include: - Innovative Devices: Baijun Medical, Sanyou Medical, Aikang Medical, etc. - Innovative Drugs: Heng Rui Medical, Xinda Biologics, etc. - Other sectors include traditional Chinese medicine, raw materials, CXO, medical services, vaccines, and retail pharmacies [5].

Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI year-on-year is 2.4%, down from 2.5% in August, while month-on-month remains at 0.2%[1] - Core CPI year-on-year increased to 3.3% from 3.2%, with a month-on-month change of 0.3%[1] - Food prices rose by 0.4% month-on-month, while energy prices decreased by 1.9%[1] Inflation Trends - Core goods inflation month-on-month increased by 0.2%, with a year-on-year decline of 1.2%[1] - Used car prices rose by 1.3% month-on-month, while clothing prices increased by 0.8%[1] - Core services inflation remained stable at 0.4% month-on-month, but housing components showed a decline[1] Market Reactions - Following the CPI release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 0.2 basis points to 4.073%[1] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.05%, while gold and silver prices increased by 0.85% and 2.17%, respectively[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The September CPI data is expected to have limited impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with labor market data being a more significant factor[1] - There is an expectation of two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in the remaining meetings of the year, potentially continuing into 2025[1] Risks and Considerations - The report highlights risks related to unexpected Federal Reserve monetary policy changes and geopolitical conflicts[1]

Group 1: Current Account and Trade Balance - The current account surplus decreased by $42.3 billion year-on-year to $93.7 billion, accounting for 1.1% of GDP, down 0.5 percentage points[2] - The service trade deficit increased from $90.3 billion to $123 billion, primarily due to a 37% rise in travel expenditures to $120.5 billion, reflecting a recovery in cross-border travel demand[2] - The goods trade surplus remained stable, increasing by $1.8 billion to $288.4 billion, marking the second-highest level for the same period historically[2] Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Net foreign investment inflow improved, rising from $15.6 billion to $91.7 billion, driven by a shift from net outflow in securities investment to a net inflow of $69.1 billion[2] - Debt investment saw a net inflow of $25.6 billion, reversing a net outflow of $78.9 billion from the previous year, indicating a strong interest in domestic bonds[4] - Equity investment net outflow decreased from $75.3 billion to $23 billion, influenced by the continued weakness in A-shares[4] Group 3: Outward Investment Dynamics - Outward investment net outflow increased by $87.2 billion to $214.4 billion, with significant contributions from other investments and securities investments[6] - Direct investment net outflow rose to $108.9 billion, marking a historical high for the same period[6] - The net outflow in securities investment surged from $52.4 billion to $96.9 billion, reflecting domestic investors capitalizing on overseas market gains[6] Group 4: External Debt Stability - As of June 2024, the net external debt of the private sector decreased to $465.6 billion, down $75.9 billion from the end of 2023, with a notable reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio from 3.0% to 2.6%[17] - The proportion of domestic currency-denominated external debt reached a historical high of 49%, effectively reducing exchange rate risk[17] - The improvement in currency mismatch in the private sector since the "8.11" exchange rate reform has contributed to the resilience of the domestic foreign exchange market[17]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the current market sentiment is driven by the expectation of domestic policy improvements and a cooling of interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, leading to a recovery in risk assets, particularly in the A-share market [2][13][16] - It notes that both China and the US are currently in a replenishment cycle, which historically favors risk assets such as stocks and commodities over bonds during this phase [2][16][18] - The report suggests that the A-share market has seen a significant rebound since late September, primarily due to a shift in policy tone that has led to valuation recovery, indicating that there is still room for further upward movement in valuations [2][21] Group 2 - The report identifies potential sector rotations, emphasizing that cyclical industries such as construction materials, light industry, automotive, and non-bank financials have shown higher probabilities of relative outperformance during recovery phases [2][25] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the sustainability of policy releases and economic data trends, as these will be critical in determining the duration and strength of the current market rally [21][25] - The report also points out that the upcoming merger and acquisition cycle is expected to boost market sentiment, as it historically serves as an effective means for companies to achieve rapid growth [2][21][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment due to recent policy adjustments and improved transaction volumes [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant improvement in year-on-year transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, driven by favorable macroeconomic policies and increased consumer confidence [1][2]. - New home transaction area decreased by 30.1% week-on-week but increased by 117.9% year-on-year, indicating a recovery trend [1]. - Second-hand home transactions saw a remarkable year-on-year increase of 1459.4%, despite a week-on-week decline of 24.2% [1]. Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of September 28 to October 4, new home transactions in 40 cities totaled 16,000 units, a week-on-week decrease of 40.9% but a year-on-year increase of 94.1% [8]. - The new home transaction area was 184.2 million square meters, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 30.1% and a year-on-year increase of 117.9% [8][29]. - Transaction volumes varied across city tiers, with first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showing respective week-on-week declines of 34.1%, 41.1%, and 45.6% [8]. 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In 18 cities, second-hand home transactions totaled 7,000 units, down 58.6% week-on-week but up 1018.8% year-on-year [29]. - The transaction area for second-hand homes was 111.5 million square meters, with a week-on-week decline of 24.2% and a year-on-year increase of 1459.4% [29]. 3. Inventory Tracking - The new home inventory in 12 cities was 9,727 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [24]. - The inventory turnover period for new homes was 21.3 months, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.4 months and a year-on-year increase of 2.4 months [24]. 4. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions was 1,971.6 million square meters, with a week-on-week increase of 78.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 25.0% [4]. - The total land transaction value reached 652.3 billion yuan, marking a week-on-week increase of 611.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 40.7% [4]. 5. Policy Overview - Recent adjustments in mortgage pricing mechanisms and administrative policies in major cities are expected to stimulate market activity and improve buyer sentiment [1][2].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------|---------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n10 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— 晨会聚焦 | \n股票名称 | | 2024 年 10 月 10 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241010 | | 600383.SH | | 金地集团 | | | | 3900.HK | | 绿城中国 | | | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 -W | | ■ 重点关注 | | | | | | | | 002648.SZ 6 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [29] Core Viewpoints - The recent acceleration in hardware and software iterations in the AR glasses industry is expected to lead to faster maturity and new investment opportunities in consumer electronics [2][4] - Major companies like Meta and Meizu have launched new AR glasses and interactive hardware, indicating rapid development in product definition, interaction methods, hardware technology, and ecosystem construction [2][4] - Google Lens has a monthly search volume of 20 billion, showcasing significant user demand for visual search, which could enhance the potential for AR glasses applications [23][24] Summary by Sections Hardware Developments - Meta introduced its first AR glasses prototype, Orion, featuring Micro LED optics and a 70° field of view (FOV), along with an EMG wristband for interaction [6][8] - Meizu launched a new AR glasses product matrix, including StarV Air2 and StarV View, with advanced optical designs and competitive pricing [12][16] - The first polarization volume grating (PVG) AR glasses were showcased, highlighting advantages in clarity, color vibrancy, and FOV [19][22] Software and Ecosystem - Google Lens has expanded its capabilities with voice and video search features, indicating a growing ecosystem that could integrate with AR glasses [24][25] - The potential for Google Lens to transition from smartphones to AR glasses is significant, as it represents a typical use case for AR and AI integration [25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends deep participation in the AR glasses supply chain, focusing on companies with core barriers such as GoerTek, Luxshare Precision, and Longqi Technology for assembly [2] - For SoC, it suggests Hengxuan Technology, which is expected to establish an advantage in low-power AR-specific SoCs [2] - In micro-display optics, it recommends Weir Shares, while also suggesting attention to companies like Sunny Optical Technology and Fuguang Shares [2]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [21]. Core Insights - The National Day travel market is experiencing high prosperity, supported by multiple economic policies that boost consumer confidence. The domestic and cross-border travel sectors are thriving, and the travel industry chain is expected to continue benefiting [2][4]. - During the 2024 National Day holiday, domestic tourism saw 765 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a 10.2% increase compared to 2019. Total spending reached 700.82 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [4][9]. - Traditional mountain scenic spots remain popular, with significant growth in visitor numbers. Lesser-known scenic spots are also gaining popularity, driven by cultural trends and popular IPs [9][10]. - The dining market performed well, with average daily consumption in restaurants increasing by 33.4% during the first five days of the holiday, supported by various promotional measures [11][12]. - County tourism is experiencing high growth, with hotel bookings in popular county destinations increasing by over 50% year-on-year. Off-peak travel is becoming a new norm, with younger generations and senior travelers showing significant growth in travel participation [15][16]. Summary by Sections Domestic Travel - The National Day holiday saw 765 million domestic trips, with total spending of 700.82 billion yuan, reflecting a strong recovery in travel demand [4][5]. - The average daily cross-regional movement reached 2.86 billion people, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [4][8]. Key Scenic Spots - Major mountain scenic spots like Changbai Mountain, Huangshan, and Emei Mountain received significant visitor numbers, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.05%, 14%, and 19.35% respectively [9][10]. - The performance of cultural performances and events was robust, with a total of 44,300 performances nationwide, generating ticket sales of 2.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.9% [9]. Dining Sector - The dining market saw a notable increase in consumer spending, with major restaurant chains reporting significant growth in customer traffic during the holiday [11][12]. - For instance, Haidilao served over 10 million customers across its locations during the first six days of the holiday [12]. Cross-Border Travel - The outbound and inbound travel markets reached historical highs, with daily orders exceeding 2019 levels. Popular destinations include Japan, Thailand, and Malaysia [16]. - Inbound travel saw a nearly 80% year-on-year increase in daily orders, with significant growth from countries like Italy and Malaysia [16]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the "one old, one young" market segment, with companies like Lingnan Holdings and Zhongxin Tourism showing promising market performance [17]. - Traditional tourist destinations and scenic spots remain attractive, with recommendations to pay attention to IP-related scenic spots like Huangshan Tourism and Lijiang Co [17].

消费电子 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024 年 10 月 9 日 强于大市 消费电子近况点评 2024Q4 安卓新品密集发布，进一步提振消费电 子升级需求 2024 年 10 月，智能手机市场将迎来 SoC、OS、大模型、新机型的密集发布 期，我们统计了将要发布产品的发布时间和升级方向，我们认为端侧 AI 趋势 推动智能手机软硬件升级，有望提振销量，或将推动以智能手机供应链为主 的消费电子公司迎来新一轮业绩增长动力。 支撑评级的要点 SoC 方面，联发科、高通均将于 10 月发布新旗舰产品，SoC 性能升级大。 联发科的天玑 9400 将延续全大核 CPU 设计，并且采用 ARM v9 最新一 代 Blackhawk 黑鹰架构设计，使用一颗 3.63GHz 的 Cortex-X925 超大核， 3 颗 2.80GHz 的 Cortex-X4 大核以及 4 颗 2.1GHz 的 Cortex-A720 核，GPU 为 Mali-G925-Immortalis MC12，DRAM 将采用 10.7Gbps 的 LPDDR5x。 高通的骁龙 8Gen4 将采用台积电 3nm 制程，其最大的变化在于其将采用 ...