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Economic Growth - Q3 GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations but indicating a weaker growth rate[2] - Cumulative GDP growth for the first three quarters stands at 4.8%, slightly below the annual target of 5.0%[2] Industrial Performance - In September, industrial added value increased by 5.4% year-on-year, marking a recovery after four months of decline[8] - Cumulative industrial added value growth for the first nine months shows mining at 2.9%, manufacturing at 6.0%, and high-tech industries at 9.1%[8] Consumer Spending - Retail sales in September rose by 3.2% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales increasing by 3.6%[13] - Cumulative retail sales growth for the first nine months is at 2.3%, with significant improvements in home appliances and furniture consumption[16] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth for the first nine months is 3.4%, with manufacturing investment up by 9.2% and real estate investment down by 10.1%[20] - Real estate investment saw a slight recovery, with cumulative decline reduced by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month[25] Income and Expenditure - Resident income grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with per capita disposable income at 30,941 yuan[30] - Actual income growth for residents stands at 4.9%, with urban and rural incomes growing at 4.5% and 6.6% respectively[30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the call for compliance competition in the photovoltaic sector, with expectations for component prices to rise, leading to profit recovery in the supply chain [1]. - New technologies, such as solid-state batteries, are advancing, with recommendations to prioritize investments in segments with tight capacity and technological iteration potential [1]. - The wind power sector is expected to see steady progress in domestic offshore and onshore bidding and construction, with improved profitability anticipated next year [1]. - The report suggests focusing on companies benefiting from high demand in offshore wind and related infrastructure [1]. - The electric vehicle sector is entering a sales peak season, which is likely to boost demand across the supply chain, with material costs expected to stabilize [1]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing push for hydrogen energy development, recommending attention to companies with cost and technological advantages in electrolyzer production [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The power equipment and new energy sector rose by 1.92% this week, outperforming the broader market [6]. - The nuclear power sector saw the highest increase at 9.34%, while the photovoltaic sector experienced a decline of 0.64% [7]. Key Industry Developments - Chery aims to launch solid-state batteries in 2026 and mass production in 2027 [11]. - LG Energy signed agreements to supply 109GWh of batteries to Ford by 2032 [11]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association called for the rejection of bids below cost or above set limits [11]. - A new law in Germany grants tenants the right to install balcony photovoltaic systems [12]. Company Performance - CATL reported a net profit of 36 billion CNY for the first three quarters, a 15.59% increase year-on-year [13]. - Huayou Cobalt achieved a net profit of 3 billion CNY, up 0.24% year-on-year [13]. - Purtai's net profit decreased by 23.97% to 1.24 billion CNY [13]. - Pinggao Electric expects a net profit of 850-870 million CNY, a growth of 53.87%-57.49% [13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [7] Core Viewpoints - Huawei's Harmony OS NEXT has entered public testing, accelerating the expansion of its ecosystem. Major applications like Weibo, WPS, and Pinduoduo have launched Harmony versions, indicating a significant growth phase for Huawei's ecosystem [2][3] - Harmony OS NEXT has surpassed the Linux kernel, potentially reshaping the smart terminal operating system landscape. The new system architecture has improved performance by 10.7% and overall device performance by 30%, while reducing power consumption by 20%. In Q1 of this year, Harmony OS captured a 17% market share, surpassing Apple's iOS to become the second-largest operating system in China's smartphone market [3][4] - Financial institutions are rapidly adopting "pure Harmony" systems, with over 10 small and medium-sized banks, including Zheshang Bank and Suzhou Bank, integrating Harmony OS since September 2024. Companies like Kelong Software and Jingbeifang have secured contracts for developing Harmony native apps for banks, indicating a growing demand for Harmony ecosystem payment infrastructure [3][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Huawei's Harmony OS NEXT public testing began on October 8, with initial support for devices like the Huawei Mate 60 series and MatePad Pro 13.2-inch series. The official version upgrade is expected in Q4 2024, with more devices supported by 2025 [3] Market Position - Harmony OS has achieved a 17% market share in Q1 2024, breaking the duopoly of iOS and Android in the Chinese market [4] Financial Sector Adoption - Since the launch of Harmony OS in August 2019, major banks have begun integrating the system, with a notable acceleration in adoption in 2024. The ecosystem's payment infrastructure is expanding rapidly, supported by various software companies [3][4]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The downward trend in the real estate market has eased, indicating a potential stabilization[1] - The "two increases" policy reflects important measures for the real estate sector, including the implementation of 1 million urban village and dilapidated housing renovations, which is expected to boost regional real estate investment[1] - From January to August 2024, the year-on-year growth rates for urban village and dilapidated housing renovations were -9.8% and -4.7%, respectively[1] Group 2: Financial Measures and Impacts - The policy includes "four cancellations" and "four reductions" aimed at easing housing purchase restrictions and lowering mortgage rates[1] - The average interest rate on existing housing loans is expected to decrease by approximately 0.5 percentage points, saving around 150 billion yuan in interest expenses for 50 million households[1] - The credit scale for "white list" projects is set to increase to 4 trillion yuan by the end of the year, enhancing financial support for real estate projects[1] Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - Recent data shows that the sales area of commercial housing in major cities has seen a reduction in year-on-year decline, with decreases of 14.5% and 12.0% for the top ten cities and 30 major cities, respectively, indicating a narrowing of the downturn[1] - The People's Bank of China anticipates that most existing housing loan interest rate adjustments will be completed by October 25, 2024[1] - The overall sentiment is optimistic, with expectations for positive results in October data as the market begins to stabilize[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector, indicating a potential recovery in the market supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the sector [1]. Core Insights - New home sales volume showed a month-on-month increase due to a low base effect from the previous week, although year-on-year growth turned negative [1]. - The report highlights that both new and second-hand home sales have shifted from negative to positive month-on-month growth, while year-on-year growth has declined [1]. - Inventory levels for new homes have decreased year-on-year, with a longer absorption period compared to the previous year [1]. Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In 40 cities, new home transaction volume reached 19,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 19.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 37.7% [10]. - New home transaction area was 2.083 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 32.7% [10]. - First, second, and third/fourth-tier cities showed varying month-on-month growth rates in new home transactions, with first-tier cities declining by 16.0% [10]. 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 18 cities increased by 115.2% month-on-month but decreased by 31.4% year-on-year [1]. - The report notes significant declines in year-on-year growth rates across different city tiers, with first-tier cities showing a decrease of 7.8% [1]. 3. Inventory Situation - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 9.661 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% [26]. - The absorption period for new home inventory was reported at 21.3 months, with a slight month-on-month decrease but a year-on-year increase of 2.4 months [26]. 4. Land Market Tracking - The total area of land transactions was 8.513 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 56.8% but a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1]. - The total land transaction price was 20.83 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 68.1% and a year-on-year increase of 98.4% [1]. 5. Policy Developments - Various government departments reiterated their support for the real estate sector, emphasizing measures to stabilize the market and boost confidence [1]. - The report indicates that financial institutions are encouraged to enhance loan disbursement for real estate projects, particularly those on the "white list" [1]. 6. Company Announcements - The report includes a summary of key announcements from major real estate companies, reflecting ongoing adjustments in response to market conditions [1]. 7. Bond Issuance - The total bond issuance in the real estate sector was 3.92 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 58.5% [1]. - The net financing amount was reported at -790 million yuan, indicating a challenging financing environment for real estate companies [1].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|---------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n10 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— 晨会聚焦 | \n股票名称 | | 2024 年 10 月 16 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241016 | | 600383.SH | | 金地集团 | | | | 3900.HK | | 绿城中国 | | | | | | | | ■ 重点关注 | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 | -W | | | 002648.SZ | | 卫星化学 | | 【宏观经济】 9 月通胀点评 * 张晓娇 朱启兵。 9 月通胀同比增速低于市场预 | | 6880 ...

证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2024 年 10 月 15 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 "货币+财政"政策组合拳意在稳增长 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 经济数据：9 月 CPI 同比增长 0.4%，PPI 同比下降 2.8%。 要闻：财政部部长蓝佛安介绍，将在近期陆续推出一揽子有针对性的增量 政策举措；央行正式决定创设"证券、基金、保险公司互换便利"；央行 和财政部已就央行国债买卖建立联合工作组。 资产表现回顾 股债调整，期货回落。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 3.25%，沪深 300 股指期货 下跌 5.8%；焦煤期货本周下跌 1.44%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 2.18%； 人民币理财预期收益率收于 1.98%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率上涨 4BP 至 1.46%；十年国债收益率上行 4BP 至 2.14%，活跃十年国债期货本周下跌 0.60%。 资产配置建议 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。9 月 2 ...

Inflation Overview - September CPI year-on-year growth was 0.4%, lower than market expectations, primarily due to weak domestic demand[2] - Core CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a continued weakness in inflationary pressures[2] - Food prices rose by 3.3% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.61 percentage points to the CPI increase[2] Price Index Trends - September PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, marking a 1.0 percentage point decline from August[10] - PPI has shown a continuous month-on-month decline for four consecutive months, with a 0.6% decrease in September[10] - The decline in PPI was significantly influenced by production material prices, which fell by 3.3% year-on-year[10] Sector Performance - The highest year-on-year growth in CPI components was seen in other goods and services (3.5%), food and tobacco (2.3%), and clothing (1.3%) in September[2] - Notable declines were observed in transportation and communication, as well as housing prices, which experienced negative growth[2] - The manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery with the PMI production index rising above the threshold, indicating potential stabilization in industrial prices[13] Policy Implications - Recent monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to positively impact domestic demand in the coming months[1] - The upcoming macroeconomic policies from key government meetings are anticipated to influence growth and domestic demand from Q4 2024 to 2025[4] - The focus on stabilizing prices for essential goods such as food and utilities is critical given the current low inflation levels[4]

Trade Data Summary - In September, China's exports grew by 2.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Imports in September increased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The trade surplus for September was $81.71 billion, down by $9.31 billion from the previous month[1] Quarterly Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, exports increased by 4.3% year-on-year, while imports rose by 2.2%, with a trade surplus of $68.95 billion[1] - In RMB terms, exports grew by 6.2% and imports by 4.1%, with a trade surplus of 490.43 billion yuan[1] Key Trade Partners - ASEAN accounted for 15.8% of total trade, with exports to ASEAN growing by 5.5% and imports by 4.2% in September[1] - Exports to the EU rose by 1.3%, while imports fell by 3.5% in September, with the EU representing 12.4% of total trade[1] - Trade with the US totaled $60.71 billion, with exports increasing by 2.2% and imports by 6.7% in September[1] Economic Outlook - The contribution of major trading partners to export growth narrowed in September, contributing 1.3 percentage points, down from 2.8 percentage points in August[1] - The US manufacturing inventory trends remain unstable, with capital goods inventory increasing by 0.2% and consumer goods inventory decreasing by 0.1%[1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September may improve liquidity conditions, potentially leading to a moderate recovery in export growth[1]