| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|---------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n10 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— 晨会聚焦 | \n股票名称 | | 2024 年 10 月 16 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20241016 | | 600383.SH | | 金地集团 | | | | 3900.HK | | 绿城中国 | | | | | | | | ■ 重点关注 | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 | -W | | | 002648.SZ | | 卫星化学 | | 【宏观经济】 9 月通胀点评 * 张晓娇 朱启兵。 9 月通胀同比增速低于市场预 | | 6880 ...

证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2024 年 10 月 15 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 "货币+财政"政策组合拳意在稳增长 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。 宏观要闻回顾 经济数据：9 月 CPI 同比增长 0.4%，PPI 同比下降 2.8%。 要闻：财政部部长蓝佛安介绍，将在近期陆续推出一揽子有针对性的增量 政策举措；央行正式决定创设"证券、基金、保险公司互换便利"；央行 和财政部已就央行国债买卖建立联合工作组。 资产表现回顾 股债调整，期货回落。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 3.25%，沪深 300 股指期货 下跌 5.8%；焦煤期货本周下跌 1.44%，铁矿石主力合约本周下跌 2.18%； 人民币理财预期收益率收于 1.98%，余额宝 7 天年化收益率上涨 4BP 至 1.46%；十年国债收益率上行 4BP 至 2.14%，活跃十年国债期货本周下跌 0.60%。 资产配置建议 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。9 月 2 ...

Inflation Overview - September CPI year-on-year growth was 0.4%, lower than market expectations, primarily due to weak domestic demand[2] - Core CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a continued weakness in inflationary pressures[2] - Food prices rose by 3.3% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.61 percentage points to the CPI increase[2] Price Index Trends - September PPI decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, marking a 1.0 percentage point decline from August[10] - PPI has shown a continuous month-on-month decline for four consecutive months, with a 0.6% decrease in September[10] - The decline in PPI was significantly influenced by production material prices, which fell by 3.3% year-on-year[10] Sector Performance - The highest year-on-year growth in CPI components was seen in other goods and services (3.5%), food and tobacco (2.3%), and clothing (1.3%) in September[2] - Notable declines were observed in transportation and communication, as well as housing prices, which experienced negative growth[2] - The manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery with the PMI production index rising above the threshold, indicating potential stabilization in industrial prices[13] Policy Implications - Recent monetary and fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to positively impact domestic demand in the coming months[1] - The upcoming macroeconomic policies from key government meetings are anticipated to influence growth and domestic demand from Q4 2024 to 2025[4] - The focus on stabilizing prices for essential goods such as food and utilities is critical given the current low inflation levels[4]

Trade Data Summary - In September, China's exports grew by 2.4% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.3 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Imports in September increased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[1] - The trade surplus for September was $81.71 billion, down by $9.31 billion from the previous month[1] Quarterly Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, exports increased by 4.3% year-on-year, while imports rose by 2.2%, with a trade surplus of $68.95 billion[1] - In RMB terms, exports grew by 6.2% and imports by 4.1%, with a trade surplus of 490.43 billion yuan[1] Key Trade Partners - ASEAN accounted for 15.8% of total trade, with exports to ASEAN growing by 5.5% and imports by 4.2% in September[1] - Exports to the EU rose by 1.3%, while imports fell by 3.5% in September, with the EU representing 12.4% of total trade[1] - Trade with the US totaled $60.71 billion, with exports increasing by 2.2% and imports by 6.7% in September[1] Economic Outlook - The contribution of major trading partners to export growth narrowed in September, contributing 1.3 percentage points, down from 2.8 percentage points in August[1] - The US manufacturing inventory trends remain unstable, with capital goods inventory increasing by 0.2% and consumer goods inventory decreasing by 0.1%[1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September may improve liquidity conditions, potentially leading to a moderate recovery in export growth[1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][42]. Core Views - The food and beverage sector is entering a verification period for quarterly reports, with leading companies in sub-sectors showing stable operations. The sector experienced a decline of 7.5% last week, ranking 26th among Shenwan's primary industries. The liquor sector saw an 8.2% drop, indicating a transition from valuation recovery to fundamental verification. Leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage and Three Squirrels reported excellent performance in Q3, suggesting a gradual improvement in corporate fundamentals amid ongoing stimulus policies and a recovering macroeconomic environment [2][5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The food and beverage sector's performance last week was a decline of 7.5%, with soft drinks and fermented seasonings showing slight gains of +0.2% and a loss of -4.0%, respectively. Beer and health products lagged with declines of -8.7% and -9.7%. As of October 11, the valuation (PE-TTM) for the liquor sector was 21.1X, while the overall food and beverage sector stood at 21.7X [3][10]. Industry Data - In September 2024, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year, with food and tobacco prices increasing by 2.3%, contributing approximately 0.66 percentage points to the CPI rise. Notably, fresh vegetable prices surged by 22.9%, and pork prices increased by 16.2%. The average price for live pigs was 9.13 yuan per jin, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 5.4% and a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [4][29]. Key Insights - The liquor sector is currently in a bottoming phase, with sales pressure during the Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays. There is a risk of inventory clearance in the channels leading up to the Spring Festival. The average price for Moutai fluctuated between 2363-2450 yuan for a whole box and 2270-2325 yuan for individual bottles. Dongpeng Beverage is expected to achieve a revenue of 12.4-12.72 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 43.5%-47.2%. Three Squirrels anticipates a net profit of 338-342 million yuan, marking a growth of 99.1%-101.4% [5][22][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry [1] Core Insights - The tourism market shows high prosperity during the National Day holiday, with domestic travel increasing steadily and cross-border travel performing well [2][3] - The social services sector index increased by 1.87% in the last two trading weeks, ranking 21st among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.08 percentage points [2][15] - Domestic tourism during the National Day holiday saw 765 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, with total spending reaching 700.82 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year [2][3] Summary by Sections Market Review & Industry Dynamics - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 4.22%, while the CSI 300 increased by 4.95% during the same period [2][15] - The social services sub-sectors showed varied performance, with professional services up by 5.69%, education by 5.01%, and tourism retail by 2.07%, while tourism and scenic areas fell by 1.14% and hotel and catering by 3.75% [2][18] - The number of domestic flights during the holiday reached 102,709, a 6.31% increase from the previous week, and 83.57% of international flights have recovered to 2019 levels [2][3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong earnings growth potential in the travel chain and related industries are recommended, including Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [3][39] - Hotel brands benefiting from business travel recovery include Junting Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, and Shoulv Hotel [3][39] - The report also suggests focusing on companies like China Duty Free and Wangfujing, which are expected to benefit from the recovery of cross-border travel and new domestic duty-free policies [3][39] Company Dynamics & Announcements - The report highlights significant announcements from companies such as Beijing Shoulv Hotel and Fengshang Culture regarding their operational updates and stock repurchase plans [34] - The report notes the transfer of state-owned assets to Longbai Mountain Group, which may lead to increased competition in the hotel sector [34] Travel Data Tracking - The report indicates a complete recovery of business travel post-pandemic, with policies gradually relaxing to facilitate outbound tourism [35]

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform the Market" [3]. Core Insights - The demand for oil tankers remains strong, with fluctuating freight rates and record-high container ship orders. Geopolitical factors such as Russian oil production, the situation in the Red Sea, OPEC+ decisions, and China's economic growth will influence the tanker market [15][17]. - Global air passenger traffic increased by 8.6% year-on-year in August, with strong growth in air freight demand, particularly on trade routes from the Middle East to Europe [17][18]. - During the National Day holiday, nearly 6.3 billion express packages were collected nationwide, with a September e-commerce logistics index of 114.4 points, indicating robust growth in the logistics sector [22][23]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Hotspot Events - Oil tanker market demand is strong, with fluctuating freight rates and container ship orders reaching historical highs. The current order volume for new oil tankers is 36 million deadweight tons, matching 2023 levels, the highest since 2017 [15][17]. - In August, global air passenger traffic grew by 8.6% year-on-year, with a record load factor of 86.2%. Domestic air travel in China accounted for 11.2% of the global market share, with a year-on-year revenue passenger kilometer growth of 10.7% [17][18]. - The National Day holiday saw the collection of 3.161 billion express packages, a 28.4% increase compared to the previous year, with the e-commerce logistics index showing a slight recovery [22][23]. 2. High-Frequency Dynamic Data Tracking - Air freight prices showed an upward trend in early October, with the Shanghai outbound air freight price index at 4879.00 points, up 13.3% year-on-year [24]. - The container shipping freight index (SCFI) reported a decrease of 3.4% week-on-week, while the domestic trade container freight index (PDCI) increased by 3.31% [33][44]. - In September, domestic cargo flights increased by 13.94% year-on-year, while international flights rose by 30.80% [29]. 3. Performance of Listed Companies in the Transportation Industry - The report recommends focusing on the industrial goods export chain, highlighting companies such as COSCO Shipping, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and Huamao Logistics [15]. - It also suggests monitoring low-altitude economy investment opportunities, recommending SF Holding and CITIC Offshore Helicopter [15]. - The report emphasizes investment opportunities in the express delivery sector, recommending Jitu Express, Zhongtong Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Holdings [15].

Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing of the current account surplus in the first half of the year, primarily due to a deficit in service trade, while the goods trade surplus saw a slight increase [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding the use of debt funds as a key highlight from the recent press conference by the Ministry of Finance, indicating a significant scale of debt replacement measures is anticipated [3][4] - The U.S. CPI data for September shows a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with core CPI rising to 3.3%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [5][6] Economic Overview - The current account surplus has decreased year-on-year, with service trade deficits being the main contributor, while the goods trade surplus has slightly increased [2] - There has been an improvement in net inflows of foreign investment, with a shift towards net increases in domestic RMB bonds held by foreign investors [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to expand the scope of special government bonds to support local government financing and improve the structure of the domestic real estate market [3][4] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. CPI for September reported a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, with core CPI at 3.3% [5] - Food prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month, while energy prices decreased by 1.9%, indicating mixed inflationary pressures [5] - The core services inflation is being dragged down by housing costs, with a notable decline in rent and owners' equivalent rent [5][6]

Core Views - The report maintains a strategic optimism regarding the A-share market, supported by positive signals from fiscal policy announcements and the expectation of accelerated policy implementation [1][2]. Fiscal Policy and Market Confidence - The recent press conference by the National Development and Reform Commission highlighted the government's commitment to increasing fiscal policy efforts to stimulate high-quality economic development, which is expected to boost market confidence [2][13]. - The fiscal measures include allowing special bonds for land reserves and supporting the acquisition of existing housing, which are crucial for improving liquidity in the real estate sector [21][2]. Industry Performance and Trends - The report notes a phase of adjustment in the market following a rapid valuation recovery at the end of September, with most sectors experiencing declines except for comprehensive finance [18][2]. - Non-bank and technology sectors show stronger resilience compared to cyclical industries like food, electric vehicles, and real estate, which have experienced significant fluctuations [18][2]. - The real estate sector is highlighted as a key economic indicator, with recent policies expected to catalyze growth in the upstream steel, aluminum, cement, and engineering machinery industries, as well as in home appliances and furniture [21][2]. Tesla's Innovations - Tesla's recent product launch introduced three revolutionary products: Cybercab, Robovan, and Optimus, which are set to redefine urban transportation and integrate robotics into daily life [25][26]. - Cybercab aims to provide low-cost autonomous taxi services, with operational costs projected at $0.20 per mile, while Robovan targets urban public transport and logistics [25][26]. - Optimus, a humanoid robot, is designed to assist in various tasks, potentially transforming household and industrial operations [25][26]. Market Overview - The report indicates that the market may enter a phase of moderate fluctuations, with a focus on upcoming fiscal policy developments and external factors such as the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the U.S. elections [2][13]. - The overall sentiment remains positive for the medium term, with expectations of profit recovery leading to potential upward trends in the market [2][13].

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