| --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n8 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— 晨会聚焦 \n | 股票名称 | 2024 年 8 月 6 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20240806 | | | | 极兔速递 | | | 1519.HK | | -W | | | 002001.SZ | | 新和成 | ■ 重点关注 | | 002409.SZ | | 雅克科技 | | | 002340.SZ | | 格林美 | 【固定收益】转债市场上涨，高分位 YTM 中枢下移较大 * 肖成哲。本周 A | | 688198.SH | | 佰仁医疗 三友医疗 | 股市场和转债市场均小幅上涨。微盘股修复幅度较大，带动转债高 ...

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 8 月 6 日 房地产行业第 31 周周报（7 月 27 日-8 月 2 日） 本周新房二手房成交同比均改善；7 月百强房企 销售降幅扩大 本周新房成交面积环比增速扩大，同比由负转正；二手房成交面积环比降幅扩大，同比持 续为正，增速扩大；新房库存面积同环比均下降；去化周期环比下降，同比上升。 核心观点 新房成交面积环比增速扩大，同比由负转正。LPR 利率下调配合 517 新政后，房贷利率已处于历 史最低水平，此外，各地"以旧换新"政策支持下促进"购新房"需求释放，本周新房成交有所 好转。40 个城市新房成交面积为 248.6 万平方米，环比上升 21.2%，同比上升 2.9%，同比由负转 正，较上周上升了 30.5 个百分点。一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积分别为 69.5、122.6、56.4 万 平方米，环比增速分别为 32.6%、24.2%、4.6%，同比增速分别为 14.2%、-2.3%、-0.7%，一线城 市同比由负转正，同比增速上升了43.6 个百分点，二、三四线城市同比降幅分别收窄了24.0、26.8 个百分点。 二手房成交面积环比降幅扩大 ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 8 月 6 日 交通运输行业周报 强于大市 集运市场短期或达临界点，暑运首月民航客座 率创新高 航运方面，集运市场短期或达临界点，国际原油价格震荡下跌。航空方面， 6 月全球航空货运总需求同比增长 14.1%，暑运首月民航客座率创新高。快 递物流方面，奥运经济"带火"跨境电商，上半年跨境电商进出口同比增长 10.5%。 核心观点： ①集运市场短期或达临界点，国际原油价格震荡下跌。集运市场在 7 月 达转折点，主要前程贸易的长期费率显示出复苏的迹象，螺旋式上升的 短期费率开始疲软。截至 8 月 1 日，今年的平均综合指数为 3,946 美元 /FEU，较 10 年间平均运价水平 2,785 美元/FEU 高 1,161 美元。其中，从 中国出发的航线，与上周相比，上海-鹿特丹下降 1%至 8,200 美元 /FEU，上海-热那亚与上周持平至 7,610 美元/FEU，上海-纽约下降 1%至 9,166 美元/FEU，上海-洛杉矶下降 3%至 6,740 美元/FEU。长期费率上升 和短期费率下降意味着市场之间的价差正在缩小，这在今年晚些时候托 运人和承运人 ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 8 月 5 日 强于大市 食品饮料行业周报 关注啤酒企业旺季销量表现，积极把握景气反转机会 上周食品饮料板块涨跌幅-1.4%，在各板块中排名第 28。近期部分啤酒企业 披露了 1H24 的经营情况，业绩表现分化。建议关注啤酒企业 3Q24 旺季销量 表现，积极把握景气反转机会。关注板块超跌，政策端提振下的投资机会。 市场回顾 上周食品饮料板块涨跌幅-1.4%，在各板块中排名第 28。子板块中，保健 品、其他酒类涨跌幅排名靠前，分别为+6.1%、+5.0%，乳品、白酒涨跌 幅排名靠后，分别为-1.8%、-2.5%。截至 8 月 2 日，白酒板块估值（PE-TTM） 为 18.6X，食品饮料板块估值（PE-TTM）为 19.1X。 行业数据 根据今日酒价、百荣酒价及同花顺数据，7.26-8.2 整箱飞天批价 2600-2642 元，散瓶飞天批价 2387-2407 元，飞天批价回暖。普五批价 930-940 元， 国窖 1573 批价为 870-875 元。 截至 8 月 2 日，全国生猪出栏价为 10.16 元/斤，环周+4.7%，同比+14.3%。 全国 ...

医药生物 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 8 月 5 日 强于大市 医药生物行业周报 估值仍位于近年低位，医药生物支持政策持续推出 申万医药生物指数在 2024 年 7 月 26 日-2024 年 8 月 2 日期间上涨 3.21%，涨 幅排名第 4 名，医药生物各细分板块均实现正向收益，且相对沪深 300 指数 收益为正。申万医药生物板块截至 2024 年 8 月 2 日市盈率（TTM）（剔除 负值）为 10.37 倍，仍然位于近年低位。 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current market environment is unlikely to experience systemic risks, with a focus on four key directions: dividends, overseas expansion, technology, and mass consumption [2][3] - The A-share market is expected to see a weak recovery in earnings in the second half of the year, driven by domestic capital inflows and macroeconomic policy support [2] - The technology sector is highlighted as having systemic investment opportunities, particularly in AI applications and the semiconductor industry, which are expected to benefit from both cyclical upturns and domestic substitution [3] Group 1: A-Share Market Strategy - The report suggests that the A-share market is in a transitional phase, with structural opportunities emerging as domestic capital becomes the main driver [2] - It notes that the macroeconomic policy's effectiveness will be crucial for market performance in the second half of the year, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [2] - The report indicates that the market may face a "two-phase overlap," benefiting technology sectors during a likely gap in real estate policy [2] Group 2: Industry Configurations - The report identifies a long-term low-interest-rate environment as a key driver for dividend strategies, which are expected to provide defensive valuation support [2] - It highlights the potential for growth in the technology sector, particularly in AI and related fields, as well as the positive trends in the semiconductor supply chain [3] - The manufacturing sector is noted for its shift towards overseas capacity expansion, driven by economic rationality and the potential for tariff arbitrage [3] Group 3: Computer Industry Insights - The computer industry is currently facing pressure due to weak IT investment from government and enterprise clients, leading to a decline in demand [4][5] - Despite the short-term challenges, the report suggests that the industry is in a phase of accumulation, with potential for high growth once new drivers emerge [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation in technology as a beacon of hope for future growth in the sector [4][6] Group 4: Company-Specific Analysis - For Yonyou Network, the report forecasts a revenue of 3.71 billion to 3.88 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, with a net loss expected between 750 million to 880 million yuan [8][9] - The company is expected to benefit from the new tax reform, enhancing its competitive edge in the large client market [9] - For Glodon, the report notes a revenue of 2.96 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, with a net profit decline of 22.7%, but highlights improvements in cost management and revenue stability [11]

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 8 月 5 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20240804 国际油价波动，维生素价格跳涨 8 月份建议关注：1、关注维生素、涤纶长丝、制冷剂、化肥等产品价格变化 及中报业绩兑现；2、大基金三期、下游扩产等多因素催化，关注部分半导体、 OLED 等电子材料公司；3、油价中高位，关注大型能源央企及相关油服公司 在新时代背景下的改革改善与经营业绩提升；4、中报超预期相关投资机会。 行业动态 本周（7.29-8.4）均价跟踪的 101 个化工品种中，共有 22 个品种价格上涨，49 个品种价格下 跌，30 个品种价格稳定。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是维生素 A、维生素 E、硫酸(浙江巨 化 98%)、纯 MDI（华东）、二氯甲烷（华东）；而周均价跌幅居前的品种分别是丙酮（华 东）、硝酸(华东地区)、盐酸（长三角 31%）、液氨（河北新化）、液氯（长三角）。 本周（7.29-8.4）国际油价下跌，WTI 原油期货价格收于 73.52 美元/桶，周跌幅 4.72%；布 伦特原油期货价格收于 76.81 美元/桶，周跌幅 5.32%。宏观方面，二季度美国 GDP 增长超 ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 8 月 5 日 国办印发碳排双控方案，英国上调海风预算 光伏方面，多晶硅硅料价格筑底，行业减产情绪进一步加强，供需关系逐步 缓和，我们预计率先完成产能出清，颗粒硅与块状硅销售价格维持 0.3-0.5 万元/吨，看好颗粒硅市占率提升；组件部分厂商尝试抬价但实际成交价上涨 仍需等待需求大幅增长信号；逆变器需求持续向好；建议优先配置行业格局 较优、成本优势较为明显的行业细分环节。风电方面，H2 国内海风招标及 建设有望稳步推进，省级深远海示范项目与规划逐步出台，打开远期想象空 间；海外伴随利率下行与项目规划逐步推进，欧洲等市场需求有望从 2025 年开始释放，带动出海需求，建议优先配置受益于海风、出海逻辑的塔筒桩 基与海缆环节，估值较低的陆风环节，存在渗透率提升逻辑的国产化与新技 术环节。新能源车方面，材料环节依然面临盈利压力。我们预计下半年材料 降价压力有望缓解，盈利有望得到修复。新技术方面固态电池产业化加速， 在相关领域有布局的材料和设备企业有望受益。建议优先布局格局较优的电 芯环节，海外客户放量以及一体化布局较优的部分中游材料环节。电力设备 领域，国内持 ...

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Group 1: Cycle Positioning - The current economic environment is characterized by a long-term depression phase of the fifth Kondratieff wave, with a transition from old to new production capacity suppressing capital expenditure intensity [7] - The inventory cycle is flattening, with weak internal and external resonance in the replenishment phase. Domestic inventory has shown signs of bottoming since the second half of 2023, but the recovery momentum is relatively weak [7][12] - The macroeconomic environment indicates a gradual convergence of internal and external demand, with domestic recovery expected to be slow but steady [12][13] Group 2: A-Share Market Trends - In the first half of 2024, A-share performance was influenced by policy expectations, with significant advantages for dividend assets. The market experienced volatility due to weak domestic demand recovery and regulatory pressures [19] - The second half of 2024 is anticipated to present structural opportunities as the market transitions, with domestic capital expected to dominate A-share investments [19] - The macroeconomic policy's effectiveness will be crucial for market performance in the second half, particularly in relation to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the upcoming elections [19] Group 3: Industry Configurations - The long-term low-interest rate environment supports a dividend strategy, which is favored for its defensive characteristics amid uncertainties in domestic demand and external factors [7][19] - The technology sector is expected to benefit from systemic investment opportunities driven by AI trends, with significant growth potential in AI-related applications and the semiconductor industry [7][19] - The manufacturing sector is undergoing a transformation as Chinese companies expand production capacity overseas, driven by economic rationality and tariff arbitrage opportunities [7][19] - Consumer behavior is shifting towards a "value for money" and "quality-price ratio" era, prompting a focus on companies that can leverage scale advantages to enhance supply chain efficiency [7][19]