| --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n8 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— 晨会聚焦 | \n股票名称 | 2024 年 8 月 2 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20240802 | | 1519.HK | | 极兔速递 -W | | | 002001.SZ | | 新和成 | | | 002409.SZ | | 雅克科技 | ■ 重点关注 | | 002340.SZ | | 格林美 | | | 68819 ...

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| --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|---------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n8 月金股组合 \n股票代码 | —— 晨会聚焦 \n | 股票名称 | 2024 年 8 月 1 日 \n中银晨会聚焦 -20240801 | | | | 极兔速递 | | | 1519.HK | | -W | | | 002001.SZ | | 新和成 | ■ 重点关注 | | 002409.SZ | | 雅克科技 | | | 002340.SZ | | 格林美 | 【宏观经济】 7 月 PMI 数据点评 * 陈琦 朱启兵。制造业生产指数仍在回落。 | | 688198.SH 688085.SH | | 佰仁医疗 三友医疗 | 新旧产业发展分化，内需需加 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 15 basis points, adjusting the policy rate to 0.15%-0.25%[1] - The central bank announced a reduction in bond purchases by 400 billion yen each quarter, aiming for a monthly purchase scale of 2.9 trillion yen by Q1 2026[1] - The Bank of Japan will make future rate decisions based on economic data without a preset timeline for the next rate hike[2] Group 2: Inflation and Economic Forecasts - The core inflation forecast for 2024 was revised down to 0.6% from 0.8%, and for 2025 to 2.1% from 1.9%[2] - The GDP growth forecast for 2024 was also lowered to 0.6% from 0.8%[2] - Current inflation rate stands at 2.8%, with core inflation at 2.6%, indicating a gradual economic recovery[2] Group 3: Currency and Market Reactions - The weak yen has been a significant factor in the decision to raise interest rates, as it poses upward inflation risks[2] - Following the rate hike announcement, the yen experienced volatility, briefly surpassing 151 against the dollar[2] - The rate hike has strengthened sentiment towards the Chinese yuan, leading to a significant increase in offshore yuan interest rates[2]

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食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024 年 7 月 31 日 强于大市 食品饮料行业 2024 年中期 策略 行业调整期寻找业绩确定性强的优质企业 当前食品饮料行业基金持仓及板块估值为历史底部位置，市场对板块的担忧主要 为需求不振背景下企业业绩出现风险。但是从食品饮料历史表现来看，因独特的 商业模式及品牌溢价能力，行业具备穿越周期的能力。行业调整期建议优选业绩 确定性高+高股息率的品种。当前板块底部信号明显，现阶段可积极布局。 支撑评级的要点 基金持仓及板块估值底部信号明显，现阶段可以积极布局。（1）估值方面， 截至 7 月 12 日，食品饮料板块估值（PE-TTM）为 20X，市盈率相对沪深 300 倍数为 1.7，为 2016 年以来最底部位置。子板块中，乳制品、调味品、啤酒 动态市盈率分别为 14X、26X、24X，回落至 2016 年以来 PE（TTM）最低值。 （2）基金持仓方面，2Q24 食品饮料行业持仓降幅较大，2Q24 环比 1Q24 下 降 3.5pct 至 8.4%，为三年以来最低配置比例。横向对比其他行业，食品饮料 当前处于低配状态。我们认为，市场对板块的担忧主要为需求不振背 ...

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 30 日 房地产行业第 30 周周报（7 月 20 日-7 月 26 日） 本周二手房成交同比继续正增长；LPR 下调 10BP，预计年内仍有进一步下调可能 本周新房成交面积环比增速由负转正,同比降幅扩大；二手房成交面积环比由正转负，同比 增速下滑；新房库存面积同环比均下降;去化周期环比下降，同比上升。 核心观点 新房成交面积环比增速回正，但同比降幅扩大，主要是因为核心城市政策放松后前期积累的需 求基本已经释放完毕，政策效果边际减弱，一、二线城市新房成交动能转弱、成交面积同比降 幅扩大。40个城市新房成交面积为205.1 万平方米，环比上升5.2%，同比下降27.6%，同比降 幅较上周扩大了 10.2 个百分点。一、二、三四线城市新房成交面积环比分别为-7.7%、4.4%、 24.0%，同比增速分别为-29.4%、-26.3%、-27.5%，一、二线城市同比降幅分别较上周扩大15.5、 11.3 个百分点，三四线城市同比降幅与上周持平。 本周二手房成交面积环比虽然小幅波动回落，但同比增速已经持续 4 周正增长，尤其是一线 城市连续 9 周二手房 ...

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 29 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 全球集装箱船队运力持续增长，旅游出行市场 迎来奥运红利期 航运方面，全球集装箱船队运力持续增长，地缘政治累积效应促使油轮市场 保持高位。航空方面，欧洲机票预订量同比涨九成，旅游出行市场迎来奥运 红利期。快递物流方面，快递行业件量增长放缓，均价创下近期新低。 核心观点： ①全球集装箱船队运力持续增长，地缘政治累积效应促使油轮市场保持高位。 全球集装箱船队的运力显著增长，运力增速为近十五年最快纪录。根据 BIMCO 数据，2024 年上半年，船厂共计交付了 264 艘船舶，总运力高达 160 万标准 箱，这一数字比去年上半年所创下的纪录还要多出三分之二。由于货运量的强 劲增长以及经由好望角的船舶改道，仅有 36 艘总运力为 5.1 万标准箱的船舶被 回收。由于货运量的增长可能无法与船队的扩张同步，未来船舶回收量或将上 升，从而在一定程度上抑制船队的整体增长。此外，如果船舶最终能重新选择 红海和苏伊士运河作为航线，那么对船舶的需求可能会进一步下降。与集装箱 运力持续增长相反，油轮新船交付量较低，过去两年对俄制裁累积 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights a focus on several key stocks for July, including 招商轮船 (China Merchants Energy Shipping), 中国石油 (PetroChina), and 雅克科技 (Yake Technology) among others [1] - 宁德时代 (CATL) reported a net profit of 22.865 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.37% [6][14] - The company has maintained a strong market position with a global market share of 37.5% in the first five months of 2024, an increase of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year [6] Company Performance - 宁德时代's revenue for the first half of 2024 was 166.767 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.88% year-on-year, while the net profit for Q2 2024 was 12.355 billion yuan, up 13.40% year-on-year and 17.56% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The company's power battery sales reached approximately 160 GWh, generating revenue of 112.649 billion yuan, despite a year-on-year decrease of 19.20% [6] - The gross margin for the power battery business improved to 26.90%, an increase of 6.55 percentage points year-on-year [6] Industry Trends - The demand for data center networks is expected to grow significantly due to the increasing application of AI, which drives the need for high bandwidth and low latency [9] - 盛科通信 (Sengke Communication) is positioned as a leading domestic company in commercial Ethernet switch chips, with expectations of turning losses into profits as the industry recovers [4][8] - The global data center switch market is projected to reach a sales scale of 20.88 billion USD in 2024, with the switch chip segment anticipated to see significant growth [9]