电子 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 7 月 15 日 002463.SZ 买入 原评级:买入 市场价格:人民币 40.25 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (27%) (2%) 23% 48% 73% 98% Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24 沪电股份 深圳成指 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 82.8 22.3 33.1 90.0 相对深圳成指 88.6 26.8 37.2 109.0 | --- | |-----------| | 1,913.51 | | 1,912.31 | | 77,018.93 | | 1,415.37 | | | | 19.44 | | | 以 2024 年 7 月 12 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《沪电股份》20240326 《沪电股份》20230828 《沪电股份》20200326 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 电子:元件 证券分析师:苏凌瑶 lingyao.su@bocichina.com 证券 ...

重点关注 【宏观经济】上半年进出口数据点评—美制造业补库在我国出口结构上得到验证 陈琦 朱启兵 出口同比增速延续改善。7 月 12 日，海关总署公布数据显示，以美元计价，上半年我国出口同比增长 3.6%，延续正 增长，增速较 1-5 月加快 0.9 个百分点；进口同比增长 2.0%，增幅较 1-5 月收窄 0.9 个百分点；贸易顺差实现 4349.9 亿美元。以人民币计价，上半年我国出口同比增长 6.9%，增幅较 1-5 月加快 0.8 个百分点；进口同比增长 5.2%，增幅 较 1-5 月收窄 1.2 个百分点；贸易顺差实现 30908.5 亿元。 单月数据方面，以美元计价，6 月我国出口同比增长 8.6%，增速延续改善，较上月加快 1.0 个百分点；进口同比下滑 2.3%，增速较上月转负，并下滑 4.1 个百分点；贸易顺差 990.5 亿美元，较上月继续增加 164.3 亿美元。 主要贸易对手对出口同比增速的贡献延续回升。分国别看，6 月当月，我国对东盟进出口总额实现 822.5 亿美元，占比 15.9%，东盟仍是我国第一大贸易伙伴，其中，出口同比增长 15.0%，增幅较上月收窄 7.5 个百分点；进口同 ...

强于大市 社会服务行业双周报 暑期出行旺季已至,入境游便利度持续优化 前两交易周(2024.07.01-2024.07.12)社会服务板块上涨 0.53%,在申万一级 31 个行业排名中位列第 11。社会服务板块跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.22pct。暑期 到来后,暑假有望刺激学生群体的出行意愿,在此基础下,文旅出行客群进 一步扩张,旺季的到来有望利好旅游、餐饮及酒店相关产业链,我们维持行 业强于大市评级。 市场回顾&行业动态数据 前两交易周社会服务板块上涨 0.53%,社会服务子板块及旅游零售板块中 4 个上涨,涨跌幅由高到低分别为:旅游零售(+8.42%)、专业服务 (+3.35%)、旅游及景区(+2.74%)、酒店餐饮(+1.37%)、教育(-6.95%)。 北上资金方面,前两交易周北上资金增持首旅酒店 0.18pct 至 1.25%,增 持中青旅 0.17pct 至 0.64%,增持中国中免 0.02pct 至 4.60%,减持宋城演 艺 0.13pct 至 1.66%,增持锦江酒店 0.19pct 至 2.48%的持股比例。 据航班管家,7.01-7.07 全国民航执行客运航班量 112016 架次 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is expected to accelerate capacity clearance due to new regulations from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, suggesting a focus on segments with better industry structure and cost advantages [1]. - The wind power sector is anticipated to see steady progress in domestic offshore wind project bidding and construction in the second half of the year, with recommendations to prioritize investments in related infrastructure [1]. - The new energy vehicle market continues to show strong sales growth, solidifying the demand across the supply chain [1]. - The solid-state battery technology is advancing towards commercialization, benefiting companies involved in materials and equipment in this field [1]. - The domestic power system reform is being pushed forward, which is expected to enhance demand for related grid equipment [1]. - Hydrogen energy policies are being promoted, with regional support in various provinces, indicating potential growth in applications across multiple sectors [1]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - In June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1,003,000 and 1,049,000 units, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 28.1% and 30.1% [1]. - The market share of new energy vehicles has reached 41.1% [1]. Photovoltaic and Wind Power - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued new guidelines for the photovoltaic manufacturing industry, which includes a minimum capital requirement of 30% for production expansion [1]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on segments that benefit from offshore wind and new technologies [1]. Power Equipment - The National Energy Administration's notice on renewable energy consumption is expected to accelerate the construction of ultra-high voltage and main grid projects, maintaining high demand for related equipment [1]. - The report suggests monitoring companies that benefit from high demand in ultra-high voltage and distribution network segments [1]. Hydrogen Energy - Regional policies in Shandong, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Guangdong are supporting the development of the hydrogen energy industry, with a focus on renewable energy hydrogen production [1]. - The report recommends attention to electrolyzer manufacturers and companies involved in hydrogen infrastructure [1]. Market Performance - The power equipment and new energy sectors saw a weekly increase of 1.60%, outperforming the broader market [7]. - The new energy vehicle index rose by 3.93%, while the photovoltaic sector increased by 2.29% [9].

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 14 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20240714 国际油价下跌,MDI 价格下跌、维生素价格上涨 7 月份建议关注:1、关注 MDI、涤纶长丝、制冷剂、化肥等产品价格变化及中报业 绩兑现;2、大基金三期、下游扩产等多因素催化,关注部分半导体、OLED 等电子 材料公司;3、油价中高位,关注大型能源央企及相关油服公司在新时代背景下的改 革改善与经营业绩提升;4、地产及节能降碳政策影响下,相关产业链产品的预期变 化及后续景气度改善。 行业动态 本周(7.8-7.14)均价跟踪的 101 个化工品种中,共有 20 个品种价格上涨,48 个品种价格下 跌,33 个品种价格稳定。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是硫磺(CFR 中国现货价)、二氯甲 烷(华东)、醋酸(华东)、环氧氯丙烷(华东)、炭黑(黑猫 N330);而周均价跌幅居 前的品种分别是液氯(长三角)、NYMEX 天然气、硝酸(华东地区)、石脑油(新加坡)、 TDI(华东)。 本周(7.8-7.14)国际油价下跌,WTI 原油收于 82.21 美元/桶,收盘价周跌幅 1.14%;布伦特原油 收于 85. ...

中银国际(英国)有限公司 2/F, 1 Lothbury London EC2R 7DB United Kingdom 电话: (4420) 3651 8888 传真: (4420) 3651 8877 中银国际(美国)有限公司 美国纽约市美国大道 1045 号 7 Bryant Park 15 楼 NY 10018 电话: (1) 212 259 0888 传真: (1) 212 259 0889 风险提示及免责声明 本报告由中银国际证券股份有限公司证券分析师撰写并向特定客户发布。 本报告发布的特定客户包括：1) 基金、保险、QFII、QDII 等能够充分理解证券研究报告， 具备专业信息处理能力的中银国际证券股份有限公司的机构客户；2) 中银国际证券股份有 限公司的证券投资顾问服务团队，其可参考使用本报告。中银国际证券股份有限公司的证 券投资顾问服务团队可能以本报告为基础，整合形成证券投资顾问服务建议或产品，提供 给接受其证券投资顾问服务的客户。 中银国际证券股份有限公司不以任何方式或渠道向除上述特定客户外的公司个人客户提供 本报告。中银国际证券股份有限公司的个人客户从任何外部渠道获得本报告的，亦不应直 接 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock price to outperform the benchmark index by 20% or more in the next 6-12 months [12][19]. Core Insights - The company is focusing on transforming its traditional business while continuously driving growth in its innovative business segments. The decline in new real estate projects has pressured the traditional smart hardware business, leading to a year-on-year decrease in net profit. However, innovative business collaborations have resulted in a 30% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2024, with new orders amounting to 346 million RMB, a 25% increase year-on-year, and total orders on hand reaching 1.283 billion RMB [1]. - A deep collaboration with Huawei has been established to create a new smart parking experience, with the "Find Parking Space" product becoming a highlight in the AITO Wenjie series equipped with HarmonyOS. As of June 30, the online user reach of the parking subsidiary exceeded 130 million, with transaction volume reaching 6.385 billion RMB, a 17% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company is leveraging a vast amount of core data generated from parking operations to enhance its digital marketing capabilities and user value management, driving service upgrades and business growth [1]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is estimated at 150 million, 200 million, and 250 million RMB, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 16%-17% due to pressures on traditional hardware business. The expected EPS for the same period is 0.24, 0.31, and 0.38 RMB, corresponding to P/E ratios of 32X, 24X, and 20X [1][14].

市场指数 指数名称 收盘价 涨跌% 上证综指 2970.39 1.06 深证成指 8870.36 1.99 沪深 300 3468.17 1.14 中小 100 5705.79 1.51 创业板指 1685.12 2.06 证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2024 年 7 月 12 日 重点关注 支撑评级的要点 评级面临的主要风险 2024 年 7 月 12 日 中银晨会聚焦-20240712 3 评级体系说明 中银晨会聚焦-20240712 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 产品组 证券分析师：王军 (8621)20328310 jun.wang_sh@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300511070001 苏凌瑶 地方国资入局，为公司远期成长保驾护航。7 月 5 日，公司控股股东新豪国际集团有限公司、实际控制人佘英杰与广 东顺德控股集团有限公司签署了《股份转让协议》，约定新豪国际以 20.20 元/股的价格向顺控集团协议转让公司 1.71 亿股，占公司总股本的 25.90%。本次转让完成后，公司控股股东将变更为顺控集团，实际控制人将变更为顺德区国资 局。公司引入顺控 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 39.00 [1] - The sector rating is **Outperform** [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and gross profit are expected to grow by **15%-20%** in H1 2024, with gross profit increasing by approximately RMB 600 million [3][4] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline significantly in H1 2024, primarily due to increased R&D investment in cognitive large models, reduced investment income, and higher bad debt provisions [4] - The company has upgraded its **Spark Large Model V4.0**, which has surpassed GPT-4 Turbo in multiple evaluations, and has launched intelligent products in various fields such as education, healthcare, and automotive [4] - The upgraded large model has driven a **70% YoY growth** in C-end smart hardware sales during the "618" shopping festival [4] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow by **20.1%** in 2024, reaching RMB 23.6 billion, with further growth of **19.7%** and **16.4%** in 2025 and 2026, respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be RMB 896 million in 2024, with growth rates of **36.3%**, **60.0%**, and **15.5%** in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - EPS is expected to be RMB 0.39, RMB 0.62, and RMB 0.72 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a downward revision of **16-20%** due to increased investment in large models [4][5] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be **101X**, **63X**, and **54X** for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] Valuation and Metrics - The company's market capitalization is RMB 90.16 billion, with a 3-month average daily trading volume of RMB 1.35 billion [2] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is expected to decrease from **112.8X** in 2023 to **57.4X** in 2024, and further to **44.3X** in 2025 [5] - The company's ROE is forecasted to improve from **3.9%** in 2023 to **5.1%** in 2024, and further to **7.6%** and **8.2%** in 2025 and 2026, respectively [6] Key Developments - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment in cognitive large models, with over RMB 650 million invested in H1 2024 [4] - The company has launched the **Spark Large Model V4.0**, which is based on the domestically developed **Feixing One** computing cluster, and has achieved leading performance in multiple application scenarios [4] - The company's C-end smart hardware sales have seen strong growth, driven by the upgraded large model capabilities [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in the first half of 2024, with a forecasted net profit of RMB 275 to 315 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.34% to 60.75% [3][4] - The introduction of local state-owned capital is anticipated to enhance the company's long-term growth prospects and market expansion capabilities [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of RMB 166 to 206 million for Q2 2024, with a median year-on-year growth of 53.72% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 70.64% [3][4] - For the fiscal years 2024, 2025, and 2026, the company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 54.23 billion, RMB 62.63 billion, and RMB 69.55 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of RMB 6.05 billion, RMB 7.22 billion, and RMB 8.45 billion [3][4] Market Dynamics - The electronics industry is experiencing a recovery, leading to increased orders and production capacity for the company [3][4] - The company is optimizing its product structure by focusing on emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and data centers, which is expected to improve gross margins [3][4] Strategic Developments - The transfer of control to a local state-owned enterprise is expected to provide financial stability and enhance the company's competitive edge in the market [3][4] - The company aims to leverage state-owned capital to expand its domestic market presence and improve its customer base [3][4]