宏观和大类资产配置周报 经济数据：美国 6 月非农就业人口增长 20.6 万人，超过预期的 19 万人， 但仍较前值 27.2 万人(调整前数据)显著下滑。（万得） 要闻：国家主席习近平出席上海合作组织成员国元首理事会第二十四次会 议时指出，面对"小院高墙"的现实风险，我们要维护发展权利。坚持普 惠包容，联手推动科技创新，维护产业链供应链稳定通畅，激发地区经济 内生动力，推动实现共同发展目标。会议正式批准白俄罗斯加入上海合作 组织，决定由中国接任 2024 至 2025 年度上海合作组织轮值主席国。（万 得） 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 0.88%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 1.06%；焦煤期货 本周上涨 1.41%，铁矿石主力合约本周上涨 4.21%；股份制银行理财预期 收益率与上周继续持平，余额宝 7 天年化收益率与上周持平；十年国债收 益率上行 7BP 至 2.28%，活跃十年国债期货本周下跌 0.22%。 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。本周美联储公布最新一次议 息会议的纪要。纪要显示与会官员们对于高利率应该持续多久仍有分歧， 仍需要等待更多通胀降温的证据。在讨论货币政策展望时，与会者指出 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the food and beverage industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Views - The recent pullback in the food and beverage sector presents an opportunity for strategic positioning [2] - The liquor sector, particularly leading brands, shows strong risk resilience, with current valuations nearing historical lows since 2016, suggesting a favorable entry point [2][4] - The beer segment is expected to see a recovery in demand as cost pressures ease and seasonal consumption increases [4] Market Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 1.7% last week, ranking 23rd among all sectors [2][9] - Within sub-sectors, meat products and health products performed relatively better, with declines of 0.1% and 0.3% respectively, while soft drinks and beer saw larger declines of 3.0% and 4.8% [2][11] - As of July 5, the price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the liquor sector was 19.6X, and for the food and beverage sector, it was 19.7X [2][11] Industry Data - The price of fresh milk in China was 3.27 yuan/kg as of June 28, down 0.6% week-on-week and down 13.3% year-on-year [3][30] - The national average price for live pigs was 9.41 yuan/kg as of July 5, up 5.6% week-on-week and up 31.2% year-on-year [3][33] - The price of various duck products was reported as 9.2 yuan/kg for duck necks, 8.8 yuan/kg for duck wings, and 24.4 yuan/kg for duck feet [3][33] Key Insights - Moutai has paused the supply of its 1935 product to stabilize prices and enhance channel value [4] - The T5 summit for beer highlighted a consensus on premiumization and a strong outlook for cost improvements, suggesting a positive trend for the beer industry [4] - Recommended stocks include Shanxi Fenjiu, Wuliangye, Qingdao Beer, Qiaqia Food, Luzhou Laojiao, Guizhou Moutai, and Yili [4]

澜起科技 电子 | 证券研究报告 — 业绩评论 2024 年 7 月 8 日 688008.SH 买入 原评级:买入 市场价格:人民币 57.31 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (29%) (23%) (16%) (10%) (4%) 3% Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24 澜起科技 上证综指 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (0.5) 10.1 26.6 (8.6) 相对上证综指 (0.1) 13.8 30.5 (0.1) | | |-----------| | 1,141.46 | | 1,141.46 | | 65,417.14 | | 981.20 | | | | 6.15 | | | 以 2024 年 7 月 5 日收市价为标准 | | |---------------------------| | 相关研究报告 | | 《澜起科技》20240426 | | 《澜起科技》20240403 | | 《澜起科技》20231113 | | 中银国际证券股份有限公司 | ...

强于大市 交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 8 日 交通运输行业周报 中远海能 24H1 经营性业绩同比提升,上半年国 际旅客量恢复超八成 航运方面,中远海能公布 2024H1 半年度业绩预告,公司经营性业绩同比提 升。航空方面,上半年民航旅客运输量约 3.5 亿人次,国际旅客量恢复超八 成。快递物流方面,中国物流业景气指数连续 4 个月扩张,业务活动预期指数 连续 5 个月在高景气区间。 核心观点: ①中远海能公布 2024H1 半年度业绩预告,公司经营性业绩同比提升。 7 月 6 日,中远海能发布 2024H1 业绩预告,预计 2024H1 实现归母净利 润约为 25.50 亿元,同比下降约 9.1%,其中 2024Q2 公司实现归母净利 润约为 13.14 亿元,环比增加 6.3%。公司 2024H1 实现扣非归母净利润 约为 25.50 亿元,同比增长约 5.4%。2024 年 1-6 月份,国际油运市场运 价水平体现出供需基本面向好的趋势。根据波罗的海交易所数据,2024 年 1-6 月,全球超大型油轮(VLCC)中东-中国航线(TD3C)平均日 收益(TCE)为 41 ...

A 股下行风险有限，红利资产仍为底仓重要选择。本周央行宣布将于近期面向部分公开市场业务一级交易商开展国债 借入操作，金融机构资产荒背景下，短期长债波动空间受限或一定程度带来权益市场类固收资产的投资机会，这有望 为红利资产带来短期的增量资金。A 股市场内部来看，5 月下旬以来，市场进入了地产政策兑现后的数据验证及观察 期阶段。当前 A 股已基本磨平了 4 月末以来地产政策预期带来的上行幅度，往后看，下半年随着地产政策效用显现以 及财政发力节奏加快，基本面有望逐步兑现弱复苏的趋势。当前 A 股下行空间有限，但短期增量资金匮乏，市场上行 动力略显不足。三中全会临近，市场大概率维持窄幅震荡格局但或存在政策预期的阶段性发酵。结构上，红利资产仍 是底仓重要选择。 以报告发布日后公司股价/行业指数涨跌幅相对同期相关市场指数的涨跌幅的表现为基准： 本报告发布的特定客户包括：1）基金、保险、QFII、QDII等能够充分理解证券研究报告， 具备专业信息处理能力的中银国际证券股份有限公司的机构客户；2）中银国际证券股份 有限公司的证券投资顾问服务团队，其可参考使用本报告。中银国际证券股份有限公司的 证券投资顾问服务团队可能以本报告 ...

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 8 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20240707 国际油价上涨,涤纶长丝价格上涨 7 月份建议关注:1、关注 MDI、涤纶长丝、制冷剂、化肥等产品价格变化及中报业绩兑现;2、 大基金三期、下游扩产等多因素催化,关注部分半导体、OLED 等电子材料公司;3、油价中高 位,关注大型能源央企及相关油服公司在新时代背景下的改革改善与经营业绩提升;4、地产及 节能降碳政策影响下,相关产业链产品的预期变化及后续景气度改善。 行业动态 本周(7.1-7.7)均价跟踪的 101 个化工品种中,共有 29 个品种价格上涨,42 个品种价格下 跌,30 个品种价格稳定。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是硫酸(浙江巨化 98%)、维生素 E、炭 黑(黑猫 N330)、甲乙酮(华东)、WTI 原油;而周均价跌幅居前的品种分别是三氯乙烯 (华东)、NYMEX 天然气、PTMEG(华东)、TDI(华东)、苯胺(华东)。 本周(7.1-7.7)国际油价上涨,WTI 原油收于 83.37 美元/桶,收盘价周涨幅 2.31%;布伦特 原油收于 86.86 美元/桶,收盘价周涨幅 0.53 ...

2024 年 7 月 7 日 策略周报 5 2024年7月7日 策略周报 图表 11. 本周全 A 相对回报相对上周有所回升 图表 12. 市场成交活跃度相对上周有所回落 0 20 100 50 80 交易相对活跃度(TTM) 0 20 100 50 80 全A相对回报(TTM) 上周 本周 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------|--------------|------------------------------------------------------------|--------------| | 图表 15. 一周主题红黑榜， ST 联网相关主题跌幅较大 | | 板块、免税店、维生素相关主题领跑，次新股、无线充电、卫星互 | | | 最热主题 | 周涨跌幅 (%) | 最凉主题 | 周涨跌幅 (%) | | ST 板块 | 4.94 | 近端次新股 | (7.90) | | 免税店 | 3.65 | 无线充电 | (6.27) | | 维生素 | 3.32 | 卫星 ...

强于大市 电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 7 日 电力设备与新能源行业 7月 第 1 周周报 多家新势力 6 月交付量创新高 光伏方面,硅料库存开始提升,价格预计短期磨底,产能出清价格信号已明 确,具体出清时间点仍未明确。主产业链产能出清仍在进行时,建议优先配 置行业格局较优、成本优势较为明显的行业细分环节。风电方面,海风项目 建设有序推进,国外海风有望逐步放量,带动出海需求,建议优先配置受益 于海风、海外逻辑的塔筒桩基与海缆环节,以及存在渗透率提升逻辑的国产 化与新技术环节。新能源车方面,多家新势力 6 月交付量创历史新高,随着 新能源汽车消费进入旺季,产品力进一步加强,全年销量有望保持高景气。 电池环节盈利确定性较高,中游材料多数环节价格企稳,随着落后产能逐步 出清,各环节盈利有望回归合理。新技术方面固态电池产业化加速,有望在 25 年迎来放量,在相关领域有布局的材料和设备企业有望受益。建议优先布 局格局较优的电芯环节,海外客户放量以及一体化布局较优的部分中游材料 环节。电力设备领域,国内持续推动电力体制改革,《国家能源局关于做好 新能源消纳工作 保障新能源高质量发展的通知 ...

Employment Data - In June, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 206,000, slightly above the expected increase of 190,000, but down from a revised 218,000 in May[7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, up from 4.0% in the previous month, marking the highest level since January 2022[7] - Labor force participation rate increased to 62.6%, compared to 62.5% in May[7] Sector Performance - Education and health services added 82,000 jobs, while government employment rebounded to 70,000, indicating strong support from public sector jobs[7] - The construction sector saw an increase of 27,000 jobs, while manufacturing and retail sectors lost 8,000 and 8,500 jobs respectively[10] - Professional and business services decreased by 17,000 jobs, highlighting structural changes in the labor market[10] Wage and Inflation Indicators - Average hourly earnings rose to $35.00, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 3.9%[7] - The data suggests that inflation has not been fully contained, as indicated by the rising average hourly wage[7] Market Implications - Following the employment data release, expectations for interest rate cuts in 2024 increased, with a probability of 83.8% for a cut in September[7] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 7 basis points immediately after the data release but closed lower at 4.289%[7]

Key Insights - The Chinese medical beauty industry is still in its growth phase, with a projected annual growth rate of 15% from 2023 to 2027, while injection-based and phototherapy markets are expected to grow at 20%-30% during the same period [1] - The market penetration of medical beauty in China is lower than in overseas markets, indicating significant growth potential [1][12] - The upstream manufacturers in the medical beauty industry are experiencing strong performance and profitability, with stable gross margins and no significant pressure on product prices [12] Medical Beauty Industry - The medical beauty sector is characterized by various growth opportunities across different segments, with emerging fields showing potential for "external competition" [1] - Hyaluronic acid injection products are expected to see rapid growth as they are commonly used as lead-in projects by downstream institutions [1] - The high-end market for hyaluronic acid in China has been dominated by imported products, but domestic manufacturers are gradually gaining market share through product upgrades and differentiation [1] - The regenerative medical beauty market is still developing, with limited approved products and significant growth potential [1] - The collagen injection market presents a blue ocean opportunity, with recombinant collagen products being scarce and having clear advantages over animal-derived products [1] Natural Cow Bile Market - The price of natural cow bile has been rising significantly due to supply shortages, with prices increasing from 340,000 CNY/kg in January 2019 to 1,200,000 CNY/kg in November 2023, representing a cumulative increase of 252.94% and 300.00% in key markets [3][4] - Companies are implementing strategic price increases to cope with rising costs, with notable price adjustments for products like Pian Zai Huang and An Gong Niu Huang Wan [4] - The market demand for cow bile products remains strong, with An Gong Niu Huang Wan's retail market size growing from 1.23 billion CNY in 2017 to 4.26 billion CNY in 2022, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 37.05% [4]