医美行业报告 医药生物 | 证券研究报告 — 行业深度 2024 年 7 月 4 日 | | | | | |--------------------|----------------|------------------------|------| | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 股价 | 评级 | | 锦波生物 | 832982.BJ | 人民币 150.10 | 买入 | | 华东医药 | 000963.SZ | 人民币 28.10 | 买入 | | 江苏吴中 | 600200.SH | 人民币 9.22 | 买入 | | 资料来源: | Wind ,中银证券 | | | | 以 2024 年 7 | 月 1 | 日当地货币收市价为标准 | | 上游厂商景气度持续,打开"外卷"空间 相关研究报告 《医药生物板块 2023 年年报及 2024 年一季报 总结》20240506 《医药生物行业点评》20240329 《医药生物板块双周报》20240128 | 中银国际证券股份有限公司 | | |----------------------------|----------------| | 具备证券投资咨询业 ...

医药生物 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024 年 7 月 4 日 强于大市 支撑评级的要点 允许进口牛黄试点,成本端压力有望缓解 近日,国家药监局综合司、海关总署办公厅公开征求《关于允许进口牛黄试 点用于中成药生产有关事项的公告(征求意见稿)》意见。我国天然牛黄价 格长期受供应紧缺困扰,价格居高不下。企业为应对成本上涨问题采取策略 性提价措施,但并未减弱牛黄类产品的市场需求。为缓解供需矛盾,国家药 监局与海关总署拟实施天然牛黄进口试点政策。我们预计该政策的实施会在 一定程度上平抑天然牛黄的市场价格,有望为企业缓解成本端压力。 2024 年 7 月 1 日,国家药监局综合司、海关总署办公厅公开征求《关于允许进口 牛黄试点用于中成药生产有关事项的公告(征求意见稿)》意见,公告对来自于 不存在疯牛病疫情禁令国家(地区),且符合我国海关检疫要求和药品质量检验 要求的牛黄,允许其试点用于中成药生产。试点时限为 2 年,试点区域包括北京、 天津、河北、上海、浙江、江西、山东、湖南、广东、四川、福建、广西等 12 个省(区、市)。进口试点政策的实施有望打破供不应求的局面,对价格产生一 定的下行压力,通过外部引入供应源 ...

强大于市 本周楼市成交环比持续改善;北京下调最低首付 比例和房贷利率下限 本周新房成交面积环比增速持续为正,同比降幅小幅扩大;二手房成交面积环比增速 持续为正,同比由正转负;新房库存面积同环比均下降,去化周期环比下降。 核心观点 新房成交面积环比增速持续为正,同比降幅小幅扩大。40 个城市新房成交面积为 456.4 万平方米, 环比上升 61.6%,同比下降 20.6%,同比降幅较上周扩大了 3.1 个百分点。一、二、三四线城市新 房成交面积环比增速分别为 42.5%、40.5%、122.1%,同比增速分别为-18.5%、-23.4%、-17.9%, 一线城市同比由正转负,同比增速较上周下降 20.7 个百分点、二线城市同比降幅扩大 2.2 个百分 点,三四线城市同比降幅收窄了 10.9 个百分点。 二手房成交面积环比增速持续为正,同比由正转负。18 个城市成交面积为195.9 万平方米,环比上升 2.4%,同比下降6.6%,同比由正转负,较上周下降了60.3 个百分点。一、二、三四线城市成交面积环比 增速分别为 6.6%、0.6%、3.3%,同比增速分别为 17.4%、-17.1%、-22.8%,同比增速较 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 5.41 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][3]. Core Insights - The company has secured significant contracts, including an order for smart express cabinets in Central Asia and a procurement project with China Construction Bank for instant card issuing equipment. This indicates a strong position in the smart equipment industry [3]. - The company is expanding its business into new areas such as robotics and automation, leveraging its technological expertise in optics, mechanics, electricity, and software to explore "unmanned" and "less manpower" scenarios [4]. - The overseas market is being further developed, with a notable contract exceeding USD 10 million for smart express cabinets, contributing to 36% of total revenue in 2023, amounting to RMB 800 million [4]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.19 billion in 2023, a decrease of 3.8%, but a significant increase in net profit by 175.1% to RMB 20 million. The gross margin improved to 30.8%, up by 3.1 percentage points [4][16]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are RMB 2.38 billion, RMB 2.67 billion, and RMB 3.06 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 8.8%, 12.0%, and 14.5% [16]. - The projected net profit for 2024 to 2026 is RMB 26 million, RMB 31 million, and RMB 38 million, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.04, RMB 0.05, and RMB 0.06 [16]. - The company’s PE ratios are projected to decrease from 136X in 2023 to 93X in 2026, indicating an improving valuation outlook [4][16].

Economic Overview - In Q1 2024, the current account surplus narrowed by 49% year-on-year to $39.2 billion, the lowest since Q2 2020, accounting for 0.9% of GDP[7] - The service trade deficit contributed 54% to the decline in the current account surplus, increasing by 49% year-on-year to $61.2 billion, the highest since Q4 2019[7] - The goods trade surplus decreased by 4% year-on-year to $121.3 billion, marking a new low since 2021[2] Investment and Capital Flows - The primary income deficit accounted for a 27% reduction in the current account surplus, growing by 73% year-on-year to $24.3 billion[2] - Foreign direct investment, securities investment, and other investments all recorded net inflows for the first time since 2022, with other investments turning from a net outflow of $18.7 billion to a net inflow of $19.4 billion[15] - The annualized return on foreign investments fell to a record low of 2.2%, while the return on foreign investments remained stable at 5.6%[2] Trade and Export Performance - The total goods and services trade surplus decreased by 30% year-on-year to $60.1 billion, the lowest since 2021, despite a 13.0% year-on-year increase in goods export volume[2] - China's export market share rose to 13.6%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a stable position in global supply chains[2] Financial Resilience - The increase in reserve assets was significant, with a rise of $43.4 billion in Q1 2024, the second-highest since the "8.11" exchange rate reform[11] - The private sector's net foreign liabilities decreased to $507.6 billion, down $33.9 billion from the end of 2023, with a reduction in the ratio to annualized nominal GDP from 3.0% to 2.8%[18] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected overseas financial risks, central bank policy adjustments, and domestic economic recovery not meeting expectations[23]

Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector showed a positive increase of 1.74%, while the home appliances sector declined by 1.79% [1] - The banking sector increased by 1.60%, whereas the machinery equipment sector decreased by 1.55% [1] - The overall composite index rose by 1.45%, with the electronics sector down by 1.46% [1] - The computer sector saw a modest increase of 0.68%, while the automotive sector fell by 1.40% [1] - The steel sector increased by 0.66%, and the non-ferrous metals sector decreased by 1.36% [1] Key Focus Areas - The report highlights a selection of stocks for July, including China Petroleum (601857.SH) and Bilibili (9626.HK) among others [2] - The chemical pharmaceutical raw material manufacturing PPI index has been stabilizing at a low level since its peak in 2022, indicating a bottoming out trend [3][11] - Prices of various pharmaceutical raw materials have shown fluctuations, with antibiotics remaining at high price levels while other categories like steroids and non-steroidal drugs have seen minor fluctuations [3][11] Price Trends in Raw Materials - Antibiotic prices, particularly for penicillin, have experienced a significant price increase from 290 RMB/kg in April 2024 to 365 RMB/kg in May 2024, marking a rise of 25.86% [4] - The price of dexamethasone phosphate has also increased from 8,000 RMB/kg in September 2023 to 9,750 RMB/kg in October 2023, reflecting a 21.88% increase [4] - Vitamin B1 prices have shown a stable growth trend, rising from 116.50 RMB/kg in January 2023 to 185 RMB/kg in June 2024, a total increase of 58.80% [12] Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the competitive landscape of raw materials, suggesting potential price rebounds for certain products like VD3 and steroids in the next 2-3 quarters due to low inventory levels among downstream customers [4] - The overall market for raw materials is expected to stabilize, with some products potentially experiencing a rise in both volume and price due to China's competitive advantages in production scale and cost [4]

医药生物 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024 年 7 月 2 日 强于大市 | 中银国际证券股份有限公司 | | |----------------------------|----------------| | 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 | | | 医药生物 | | | 证券分析师:刘恩阳 | | | enyang.liu@bocichina.com | | | 证券投资咨询业务证书编号: | S1300523090004 | 部分产品价格企稳,关注后续价格走势 化学药品原料药制造 PPI 指数自 2022 年高点后持续下滑,至 2024 年中期稳定在 较低水平,呈现底部企稳态势。抗生素类、甾体类、非甾体类、兽药类、维生素 类价格各有波动。其中,抗生素类产品价格处于高位区间,甾体类和非甾体类波 动幅度较小,兽药类波动下行,维生素类经历剧烈波动后趋于稳定。特色原料药 如沙坦类呈现低位波动,我们预计他汀类未来增长可能性不大。整体而言,原材 料行业部分产品目前价格企稳,板块估值处于相对低位,叠加去库存逐步缓解、 原研药专利即将集中到期因素等影响,板块业绩有望复苏,建议继续关注后续价 格边际变化和新品种放量情 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the communication industry as "Outperform" relative to the market [1]. Core Insights - The communication sector has shown slight adjustments but is viewed positively for future development. The overall performance of the communication sector was average during the 26th week of 2024, with the communication operations segment increasing by 4.99%, while terminal equipment, communication support services, and communication transmission equipment experienced declines of 4.29%, 3.51%, and 2.82% respectively [1][11][12]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Operators - The report highlights the performance of various operators, noting that the communication operations segment saw a rise of 4.99% during the specified week, while other sub-segments faced declines [11][13]. 2.2 5G - The report discusses the ongoing advancements in 5G technology, including the launch of new initiatives and partnerships aimed at enhancing the 5G ecosystem [26][32]. 2.3 Optical Communication - The optical communication segment faced a decline of 3.76% during the week, indicating challenges within this sub-sector [13]. 2.4 Internet of Things (IoT) - The report mentions the IoT sector's performance but does not provide specific numerical data for this segment [7]. 2.5 IDC - The IDC segment's performance is not detailed in the report, indicating a lack of significant movement or news during the specified period [7]. 3. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on specific stocks within the communication sector, including satellite internet companies (Creative Information, Shanghai Hantong, and Huali Chuantong), optical modules (Zhongji Xuchuang, New Yisheng, and Huagong Technology), and 5G companies (Canqin Technology and Shuo Beid) [1].

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食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024 年 7 月 2 日 强于大市 食品饮料行业周报 茅台批价企稳,龙头酒企股东大会定调良性发展 上周食品饮料板块涨跌幅-1.7%,在各板块中排名第 11。酒企出台稳价措施,茅台批 价回稳,上周整箱及散飞批价基本稳定至 2500、2200 元以上。上周五粮液及泸州老 窖召开股东大会,龙头酒企均展现出较强的战略定力,客观看待行业周期,坚持稳健、 良性发展。在行业调整期龙头酒企具备一定的防御能力。当前,食品饮料行业估值已 为 2016 年以来最底部位置,建议关注底部布局机会。 市场回顾 上周食品饮料板块涨跌幅-1.7%,在各板块中排名第 11。食品饮料子板块中,乳 品、啤酒涨跌幅排名靠前,分别为-0.3%、-1.0%,零食、其他酒类涨跌幅排名靠 后,分别为-3.9%、-6.3%。截至 6 月 28 日,白酒板块估值(PE-TTM)为 20.0X, 食品加工板块估值(PE-TTM)为 17.6X。 行业数据 根据今日酒价、百荣酒价及同花顺数据,6.21-6.28 整箱飞天批价 2437-2572 元, 散瓶飞天批价 2120-2295 元。普五批价 930 元,国窖 1 ...