交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年5月28日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 前五月中美航班量同比大幅增长，安能物流 24Q1业绩表现亮眼 航运方面，集装箱运输市场延续向好行情，多数远洋航线运价涨幅明显。航空方 面，端午节中美航班量同比增长85%，国内航线机票预订量超137万。快递物流方 面，安能物流24Q1净利润同比大幅增长173.9%，毛利率创下历史最好水平。  核心观点： ①集装箱运输市场延续向好行情，多数远洋航线运价涨幅明显。4月份中国海关 出口额同比上升 1.50%，进口额同比上升 8.40%，3 月份美国出口额同比上升 0.55%，进口额同比上升 2.06%。2024年 5月24日， SCFI报收2703.43点，周 环比+7.25%，同比+174.90%；CCFI 报收 1389.16 点，周环比+5.89%，同比 +45.32%，分航线看，美东航线、欧洲航线、地中海航线、东南亚航线周环比 +6.97%/+9.43%/+4.72%/+0.37%，同比+31.91%/+72.64%/+52.78%/+29.75%。4 月 份全球集装箱船队总运力 28851万 TEU，船舶数为 62 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the company's stock price will outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next 6-12 months [19]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 661.15 million RMB in 2023, an increase of 8.0% year-on-year, but incurred a net loss of 0.6 million RMB, marking a shift from profit to loss [25][26]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 189.92 million RMB, a significant increase of 55.3% year-on-year, although it still reported a net loss of 0.1 million RMB [25][26]. - The company has a strong position in the mid-to-high-end electronic fabric market, with a notable increase in production capacity by approximately 40% in H1 2023 [25]. - Recent price increases in electronic fabrics are expected to provide upward momentum, supported by stable costs and recovering demand in the consumer electronics sector [6][25]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company’s total revenue for 2023 was 661.15 million RMB, with a net profit margin of -0.6 million RMB, resulting in an EPS of -0.07 RMB [12][25]. - In Q4 2023, the company reported a revenue of 1.6 billion RMB, with a net loss of 0.2 million RMB [26]. - The Q1 2024 results showed a revenue of 1.9 billion RMB, with a net loss of 0.1 million RMB, indicating a year-on-year decline of 114.1% in net profit [25][26]. Production and Sales Performance - In Q4 2023, the company produced 84.95 million meters of electronic fabric, a year-on-year increase of 162.5%, with sales volume reaching 40.49 million meters, up 16.8% [32]. - For Q1 2024, production was 46.57 million meters, a 38.3% increase, and sales volume was 48.45 million meters, up 69.3% [32]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is one of the few manufacturers capable of mass-producing ultra-thin fabrics, establishing a strong competitive moat through long-term partnerships with major copper-clad laminate manufacturers [25]. - The report highlights that if consumer electronics demand continues to recover, there is potential for further price increases in electronic fabrics [6][25].

Core Insights - The market is currently in a bullish window for the second quarter, with expectations for a shift from a "barbell" strategy to a more diversified approach [14][32][34] - Following the implementation of new policies, there has been a noticeable increase in buyer enthusiasm, particularly in 30 major cities, although the overall trend remains to be observed [31][32] - The recent meeting chaired by the General Secretary has provided support for market expectations, indicating a potential turning point for economic policies [32][34] Market Overview - The market experienced a brief rally followed by a pullback, driven by the realization of policy expectations [31][34] - The real estate sector has seen a recovery of approximately 21% since late April, primarily due to expectations of policy easing [31] - The energy sector, particularly coal, has shown strong performance due to stable coal prices and summer demand forecasts [34] Industry Rotation - The acceleration of industry rotation has been observed, with significant movements in the electric power and new energy sectors following supportive government discussions [34] - The coal industry has led gains this week, while real estate and light industry sectors have lagged behind [34][35] - The AI industry is expected to benefit from the recent price reductions in major models, which could enhance commercial applications and drive demand for computational power [39][44] Key Data Points - NVIDIA reported a revenue of $26.044 billion for Q1 2024, a 262% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations [37][39] - The recent price cuts by major AI model providers have significantly reduced costs, potentially boosting the adoption of AI applications [44]

4 月广义财政支出仍不及预期 经济数据：1-4 月，全国一般公共预算收入 80926 亿元，同比下降 2.7%。 个人所得税 5007 亿元，同比下降 7%。证券交易印花税 339 亿元，同比下 降 52.7%（万得） 要闻：国家主席习近平主持召开企业和专家座谈会强调，紧扣推进中国式 现代化主题，进一步全面深化改革。要坚决破除妨碍推进中国式现代化的 思想观念和体制机制弊端，着力破解深层次体制机制障碍和结构性矛盾， 不断为中国式现代化注入强劲动力、提供有力制度保障。（万得） 资产配置建议 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------|-------|--------------------------------------|----------| | 宏观经济 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 一个月内 | = | 关注两会后配套政策发布 | 不变 | | 三个月内 | = | 关注超长期特别国债对地方项目的支持 | 不变 | | 一年内 | - | 欧美流动性趋势变动和全球局势 | 不变 | | 大类资产 | | 本期观点 | 观点变化 | | 股票 | + | 以万亿国 ...

食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年5月28日 强于大市 食品饮料行业周报 口子窖自我加压，改革效果持续体现 上周食品饮料板块涨跌幅-2.7%，在各板块中排名第9。口子窖制定了较高的2024年 度收入目标。我们认为，口子窖先天资源禀赋较好，自我加压，改革效果持续体现， 业绩有望提速。 市场回顾  上周食品饮料板块涨跌幅-2.7%，在各板块中排名第9。食品饮料子板块中，乳品、 肉制品涨跌幅排名靠前，分别为+1.8%、-0.7%，调味发酵品、零食涨跌幅排名靠 后，分别为-4.6%、-5.2%。截至5月24日，白酒板块估值（PE-TTM）为23.3X， 食品饮料板块估值（PE-TTM）为23.3X。 行业数据  根据今日酒价、百荣酒价及同花顺数据，5.17-5.24整箱飞天批价2750-2768元， 散瓶飞天批价2508-2547元。普五批价940元，国窖1573批价为875元。  截至5月24日，全国生猪出栏价为8.42元/斤，环周+7.7%，同比+13.9%。全国 猪粮比价为6.67，环周+0.22pct，同比+1.38pct。鸭脖、鸭锁骨、鸭掌价格分别为 9.9元/千克、8.8元/千克、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company's revenue in Q1 2024 decreased by 4% year-on-year, primarily due to exchange rate impacts, while operating profit margin improved slightly [4] - The company plans to strengthen its hot marketing model to attract high ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) customers [4] - The forecast for non-GAAP net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is $437 million, $482 million, and $511 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 5.2, 4.8, and 4.5 [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 net revenue was $396 million, down 4% year-on-year, while operating profit was $99.74 million, up 3.4% year-on-year [4][6] - Non-GAAP gross margin for Q1 2024 was 78.5%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company had cash and cash equivalents totaling $3.3 billion as of March 31, 2024 [4] Revenue Breakdown - Advertising revenue in Q1 2024 was $339 million, down 5% year-on-year, while value-added service revenue was $56.55 million, down 3% [4][6] - The company aims to focus on IP hotspots and customer hotspots to enhance its advertising business competitiveness [4] Future Outlook - The company expects advertising revenue growth to accelerate in the second half of 2024, driven by events like the Summer Olympics and summer entertainment hotspots [4] - The overall cost and expense levels are expected to remain stable year-on-year [4]

行业表现（申万一级） 指数名称 涨跌% 指数名称 涨跌% 电子 2.14 建筑材料 (0.65) 煤炭 2.05 房地产 (0.12) 交通运输 1.70 综合 (0.07) 有色金属 1.69 食品饮料 0.03 家用电器 1.44 农林牧渔 0.21 资料来源：万得，中银证券 5 月金股组合 股票代码 股票名称 002352.SZ 顺丰控股 600309.SH 万华化学 688019.SH 安集科技 300274.SZ 阳光电源 688085.SH 三友医疗 000524.SZ 岭南控股 002916.SZ 深南电路 ■重点关注 重点关注 国家统计局网站 5 月 27 日信息显示，1-4 月，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 20946.9 亿元，同比增长 4.3%，增 速与一季度持平；4 月规模以上工业企业利润同比上涨 4.0%，增幅较 3 月改善 7.5 个百分点。 营业收入、成本方面，2024 年 1-4 月工业企业营业收入同比增长 2.6%，较一季度改善 0.3 个百分点，每百元资产实现 的营业收入为 74.4 元，较一季度上升 0.9 元。2024 年 1-4 月工业企业营业成本同比增长 2.8 ...

相关研究报告 《中银量化大类资产周报》20240526 《商品市场或已纳入经济回升预期》20240526 《策略周报》20240526 资料来源：Wind，中银证券 资料来源：Wind，中银证券 此外，当前海内外经济回升预期升温，国际大宗商品价格整体上行，有望对国内采矿业盈利形成提 振。但需注意的是，4 月地产链需求尚未明显改善，若采矿业出厂价格延续强势，或再度对原材料 加工业盈利形成挤压，需求端释放是"保盈利"的重要环节。 行业投资评级： 设备制造业、高技术制造业盈利贡献延续回升 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2020-112021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092021-112022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-012023-032023-052023-072023-092023-112024-012024-03 应收账款平均回收期(右轴) 应收账款:同比(左轴) 天 图表 9. 应收账款同比增速和周转天数 图表 10. 产成品存货同比增速和周转天数 ...

宏观要闻回顾 重点关注 【宏观经济】宏观和大类资产配置周报—4 月广义财政支出仍不及预期 陈琦 朱启兵 经济数据：1-4 月，全国一般公共预算收入 80926 亿元，同比下降 2.7%。个人所得税 5007 亿元，同比下降 7%。证券 交易印花税 339 亿元，同比下降 52.7%（万得） 要闻：国家主席习近平主持召开企业和专家座谈会强调，紧扣推进中国式现代化主题，进一步全面深化改革。要坚决 破除妨碍推进中国式现代化的思想观念和体制机制弊端，着力破解深层次体制机制障碍和结构性矛盾，不断为中国式 现代化注入强劲动力、提供有力制度保障。（万得） 本周沪深 300 指数下跌 2.08%，沪深 300 股指期货下跌 1.6%；焦煤期货本周上涨 4.4%，铁矿石主力合约本周上涨 2.71%； 股份制银行理财预期收益率与上周继续持平，余额宝 7 天年化收益率下跌 4BP 至 1.56%；十年国债收益率上行 1BP 至 2.31%，活跃十年国债期货本周上涨 0.12%。 大类资产配置顺序：股票>大宗>债券>货币。本周 5 月美联储 FOMC 会议纪要公布，尽管美联储 5 月利率决议相对温 和，但 FOMC 会议纪要相对偏鹰 ...

银行 | 证券研究报告 — 行业点评 2024年5月27日 强于大市 银行股外资持股跟踪 外资持股银行平稳 上周外资持股银行比例较前周持平，截至周五持股市值比例 1.69%。42 家 银行中，上周外资增持前十分别为：宁波、常熟、张家港、瑞丰、平安、厦 门、浦发、苏农、杭州、渝农；上周外资减持前十分别为：苏州、江阴、青 岛、上海、紫金、青农、浙商、长沙、无锡、光大。  外资交易银行品种方向转变 上周，外资持股银行比例持平前周五，截至周五持股市值比例 1.69%。外资交易行业分化，在 30 个申万行业中，银行持股比例变化 幅度从高到低排名第 15，较上周下降 11名。上周 42家银行中增持前 十分别为：宁波、常熟、张家港、瑞丰、平安、厦门、浦发、苏农、 杭州、渝农。  外资微幅减持大行 上周 6 家国有行中，邮储银行获增持 0.02pct，四大行减持均未超过 0.01pct，上周外资持股交通银行转向减持0.01pct。  平安、浦发连续获外资较大幅度增持 上周 9家股份行中 4家被增持，平安银行上周获增 0.21pct，增持幅度 扩大，浦发银行获外资继续增持 0.17pct，华夏、兴业分别获增 0.06pc ...