中银国际(新加坡)有限公司 注册编号 199303046Z 新加坡百得利路四号 中国银行大厦四楼(049908) 电话: (65) 6692 6829 / 6534 5587 传真: (65) 6534 3996 / 6532 3371 买入 原评级：买入 市场价格:人民币 33.96 板块评级:强于大市 食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 5 月 24 日 股价表现 | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|-----------| | | | | | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 507.00 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 507.00 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 17,217.80 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 154.39 | | 主要股东 | | | | 合肥华泰集团股份有限公司 | | 42.47 | | 资料来源：公司公告， Wind | ，中银证券 | | 联系人：周源 yuan.zhou_bj@bocichi ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company reported strong profit growth in Q1 2024, with revenue reaching 29.41 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%. The IFRS net profit was 4.12 billion RMB, a significant recovery from a net loss of 0.876 billion RMB in Q1 2023 [4][5] - The company continues to enhance operational efficiency, with an adjusted net profit of 4.39 billion RMB, reflecting a staggering year-on-year growth of 10,348% and an adjusted net profit margin of 14.9% [4][5] - User engagement remains robust, with monthly active users reaching 697 million and daily active users at 394 million, representing year-on-year growth of 6.6% and 5.2% respectively [4][5] - The advertising revenue for Q1 2024 was 16.65 billion RMB, up 27.4% year-on-year, driven by strong growth in short videos, gaming, and educational marketing [4][5] - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 28.2% year-on-year, reaching 288.1 billion RMB, with active buyers increasing by 22.4% to 126 million [4][5] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 128.52 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.27% [6] - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is estimated at 17.12 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 66.65% [6] - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 23.29 in 2023 to 13.85 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [6][5] - The gross profit margin for Q1 2024 reached 54.8%, an increase of 8.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin advertising and e-commerce businesses [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4] - The market price is HKD 119.80, with a sector rating of outperforming the market [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 2024 reached RMB 5.665 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%, while the adjusted net loss narrowed by 57% to RMB 440 million [4] - Advertising revenue grew significantly, with a 31% year-on-year increase to RMB 1.669 billion, driven by enhanced advertising inventory and algorithm efficiency [4] - The company is set to launch a new mobile game, "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World," in June, which is expected to boost revenue [4] - Gross margin improved for seven consecutive quarters, reaching 28.3%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [4] Financial Summary - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately HKD 50.47 billion [3] - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is HKD 466.36 million [3] - The number of shares issued is 421.26 million, with 337.55 million shares in circulation [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 13% for 2024, 15% for 2025, and 14% for 2026 [5] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 579 million in 2024 to a profit of RMB 1.21 billion in 2025 [5] - The company anticipates achieving profitability in Q3 2024 [4] User Engagement Metrics - Daily active users (DAU) and monthly active users (MAU) reached 102 million and 342 million, respectively, with daily usage time averaging 105 minutes [4] - Video views per day increased by 22% year-on-year, reaching 5 billion [4]

中银晨会聚焦-20240524 市场指数 指数名称 收盘价 涨跌% 上证综指 3116.39 (1.33) 深证成指 9541.64 (1.56) 沪深 300 3641.79 (1.16) 中小 100 5888.05 (1.42) 创业板指 1852.07 (1.38) 证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2024 年 5 月 24 日 行业表现（申万一级） 指数名称 涨跌% 指数名称 涨跌% 有色金属 (3.40) 家用电器 (0.33) 社会服务 (3.15) 银行 (0.61) 传媒 (2.78) 国防军工 (0.74) 商贸零售 (2.50) 食品饮料 (1.08) 钢铁 (2.39) 石油石化 (1.13) 资料来源：万得，中银证券 ■重点关注 原材料价格出现不利波动；国际贸易摩擦风险；新技术进展不达预期；新能源政策风险；消纳风险。 2024 年 5 月 24 日 中银晨会聚焦-20240524 2 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|----------------|---------------- ...

重点关注 【宏观经济】一季度国际收支分析报告—国际收支重现双顺差，短期资本流入是亮点 一季度，经常项目顺差同比收窄，服务贸易是第一大贡献项，居民跨境出行需求仍处于恢复过程。虽然货物和服务贸 易顺差同比收窄，但外需是当季经济增速明显好于去年同期的重要原因。 一季度，外汇储备和黄金储备余额增长放缓。本轮增持黄金储备期间，央行避免了追高买入黄金的操作。中国国际储 备资产的多元化配置仍在稳步推进，且较好地把握了市场机会。 【电子】PCB 行业跟踪—下游复苏带动景气回温，成本驱动覆铜板先行 支撑评级的要点 评级面临的主要风险 终端创新应用渗透率提升不及预期。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|----------------|------------------------------|------------------|----------------|-------------------------------| | 中银证券研究部 \n首席经济学家 | | | 电新研究团队 | | | | 徐高 | S ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|-------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 证券研究报告 \n5 月金股组合 股票代码 | —— 晨会聚焦 | \n股票名称 | | 2024 年 5 月 20 日 \n ...

重点关注 4 月份，美联储紧缩立场重估导致亚洲外汇市场动荡。人民币汇率维稳政策像二十多年前一样，在亚洲地区依然扮演 了"稳定器"角色，避免了竞争性贬值和信心危机传染。 由于 4 月份境内外汇市场出现新的变化，央行再次释放汇率维稳信号。但外汇市场韧性总体好于 2015 年"8.11"汇改初 期，这是本轮人民币汇率承压过程中，政府部门并未重拾资本外汇管制手段的根本原因。 武佳雄 李扬 许怡然 2023 年全行业盈利能力有所承压：2023 年全行业平均毛利率 21.36%，同比下降 0.86 个百分点；净利率 8.58%，同比 下降 2.13 个百分点。新能源汽车板块平均毛利率 20.55%，同比下降 2.33 个百分点，平均净利率为 7.99%，同比下降 4.19 个百分点；新能源发电板块平均毛利率 21.18%，同比提升 0.07 个百分点，净利率 8.97%，同比下降 0.79 个百分 点；电力设备板块平均毛利率 26.68%，同比提升 0.12 个百分点，平均净利率 8.94%，同比下降 0.57 个百分点。 经营现金流整体向好：2023 年全行业经营现金净流入 8,305.61 亿元，同比提升 14.93 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the semiconductor industry, particularly in wafer manufacturing and packaging, with significant improvements in utilization rates for major players like SMIC and Huahong Semiconductor [3][6][7] - The digital chip design sector shows initial signs of recovery, with revenue and net profit growth reported for Q1 2024, while the analog chip sector continues to face challenges [8][9] - Public finance data indicates a continued push towards infrastructure and technology spending, with a notable increase in budget allocations for these areas [2][22] Group 1: Semiconductor Industry - Wafer manufacturing utilization rates have shown a significant recovery, with SMIC at approximately 80.8% and Huahong at 91.7% for Q1 2024, indicating a positive trend in the industry [3][6] - TSMC's revenue for Q1 2024 reached approximately NT$592.6 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17%, driven by high-performance computing [6][7] - The integrated circuit packaging and testing sector also reported revenue growth, with major companies like Changdian Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics showing positive year-on-year changes in both revenue and net profit [7][8] Group 2: Digital and Analog Chip Design - The digital chip design sector reported Q1 2024 revenue of CNY 30.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 32%, while net profit also saw significant growth [8][9] - In contrast, the analog chip design sector continues to struggle, with revenue growth but persistent net losses, indicating a need for further recovery [8][9] - The report suggests a focus on companies like Saintbond and Aiwei Electronics, which are showing signs of improvement in the analog chip market [9][28] Group 3: Public Finance and Economic Indicators - In April, public finance expenditure reached CNY 1,962.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a notable focus on infrastructure and technology sectors [2][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of government support for projects in high-tech and growth-stabilizing areas, which is expected to continue in the coming months [2][22] - Despite the positive trends, the report notes that public finance revenue saw a decline, highlighting challenges in land sales and government debt issuance [4][22]

重点关注 【医药生物】键凯科技—拐点已至，期待未来 我们认为市场对公司发展仍存在一定预期差，公司 2023 年业绩相对承压，使得市场对公司发展产生一定担忧。但我 们认为公司发展将出现拐点，业绩端有望逐渐改善。一方面，业绩负面因素逐渐消除，如 LNP、下游客户权益分成 等问题的影响正在弱化；另一方面，下游客户新产品逐步上市，如 UCB 肌无力产品、国内长效干扰素等，有望带来 新的业绩增量。公司自研 PEG 化产品、医美产品等也可能成为未来公司发展新引擎。聚乙二醇行业壁垒高、空间大， 是颇具发展潜力的赛道。 键凯科技深耕聚乙二醇领域，已形成领先优势。公司致力于医用药用聚乙二醇衍生物产业化，并在聚乙二醇及其活性 衍生物研发、生产、医药领域应用等技术领域处于国内领先地位。公司实施股权激励计划，可以有效提高公司高管、 核心技术及业务人员积极性。2016 年-2022 年公司业绩呈现上升态势；2023 年业绩短期下滑，主要是因为特宝生物销 售提成合同到期、LNP 收入减少以及海外主要药品客户要求的订单交付时间未在 2023 年形成收入。2024 年 Q1 仍受 影响，营业收入同比下降 30.20%。此外公司研发投入逐渐增 ...

图表 月投资分项表现情况 图表 月地产分项表现情况 本周市场整体先抑后扬，4 月社融及地产政策交织影响下，全 A 全周小幅收涨。周初在基础服务涨 价事项推动下，公用事业行业内各子行业迎来普涨，OpenAI 发布 GPT-4o 大模型，传媒、算力等方 向周初亦有表现，周三随着市场对于房地产市场"收储"及杭州、西安等地发文收购商品住房作为公 租房等事项催化下，地产链开启预期交易，直至周五系列重磅地产政策落地，地产链相关行业本周 涨幅居前。 权益短期有小幅兑现需求，但中期上行空间打开，行业轮动或有加速。本周相关地产强力政策虽已 落地，但鉴于当前地产去库压力较高，市场预期尚未显著扭转，权益市场或有小幅兑现需求。本轮 自四月下旬开启的预期交易窗口期，对应"杠"资产已连续三周占优，后续数据验证及政策发布节奏 或使得行业轮动速度有所加快。中期来看，本轮地产政策并非终篇，后续根据经济修复斜率，宏观 政策仍有较大空间，地产链配置不足情况亦或使得相关行业或基于政策节奏展现较大弹性潜力。参 考 2016 年初，供给侧改革政策发布初期，权益市场初期对相关政策力度仍显犹豫，此后随着相关中 观数据的不断被验证，市场底部反转趋势才逐步确立 ...