证券研究报告 行 2024年05月26日 业 报 告 前瞻研究 │ 行 业 相对大盘走势 CCER 市场正式重启：政策溯源与机制详解 专 题 研 究  CCER的全称是Chinese Certified Emission Reduction，即国家核证自 愿碳减排量，是指对我国境内可再生能源、林业碳汇、甲烷利用等项 目的温室气体减排效果进行量化核证，并在国家温室气体自愿减排交 易注册登记系统中登记的温室气体减排量。CCER 是一种减排信用， 可用于控排企业履约时清缴抵消实际碳排放量，有利于促进温室气体 减排，助力碳中和战略实现。 作者 分析师：郭荆璞  目前，我国审定公示的 CCER 项目总计 2871 个，其中已备案的项目 执业证书编号：S0590523070003 861 个，已完成签发的项目 254 个。项目类型包括可再生能源利用项 邮箱：jpguo@glsc.com.cn 目、农业项目、碳汇造林项目等，备案和签发量排名前三的项目类型 是风力发电、太阳能发电、猪粪便沼气利用，项目位置以西北、西南 地区最集中，从审定公示到完成减排量签发的平均开发时长为 1.68 年。  CCER 相关政策发展可概括 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The acquisition of a minority stake in New H3C is expected to enhance the parent company's net profit, with the purchase ratio adjusted from 49% to 30% and the payment amount reduced from $3.5 billion to $2.143 billion [3][4] - New H3C holds a leading position in the domestic ICT infrastructure market, ranking first in several categories such as enterprise WLAN and IT unified operation software [2] - The acquisition is anticipated to strengthen market position and improve profitability without diluting equity [4] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 85.433 billion, 93.211 billion, and 100.606 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.51%, 9.10%, and 7.93% respectively [5] - The parent company's net profit is projected to be 2.564 billion, 3.014 billion, and 3.628 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 21.92%, 17.56%, and 20.37% respectively [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.90, 1.05, and 1.27 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a 3-year CAGR of 19.94% [5] Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 27.79 yuan, based on a 31x PE ratio for 2024 [5]

2、 建筑材料行业专题：水泥盈利或近底部位置，重视积极变化 3、 房地产行业专题：开工竣工边际修复，销售投资持续筑底 4、 计算机行业专题：AI大模型成果不断涌现，AGI或将到来 5、 电力设备行业专题：从海外龙头财报看电力设备出口需求持续性 6、 食品饮料行业专题：宏观催化渐起，重视白酒板块估值修复 7、 家用电器行业专题：被低估的更新和政策弹性 8、 通信行业专题：硅光再加速，2024光谷光电展产业更新 9、 电力23及24Q1财报总结：成本改善利润提升，红利资产属性突出 10、轻工制造行业专题：地产存量时代智能家居需求空间几何？ 11、家用电器行业专题：地产政策积极，后周期板块有望迎来拐点 12、光伏设备行业深度：0BB量产节点延长设备行业景气度 13、前瞻研究深度：黄金——遥遥领先的预言 14、券商2024年一季报综述：投资收益拖累行业利润 15、电子行业深度：OLED供需反转，行业或迎来拐点 ➢ 公司深度 1、 H&H国际控股(01112)深度："1+3"战略起步，品牌矩阵渐成 2、 巨化股份(600160)深度：受益制冷剂长景气，氟化工龙头向高端化蜕变 风险提示：报告回顾内容节选自国联证券研究所已 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for XPeng Motors (09868) is to "continue to pay attention" [5]. Core Views - XPeng Motors delivered 22,821 vehicles in Q1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%. Revenue reached 6.55 billion yuan, up 62.3% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.37 billion yuan, narrowing the loss compared to the previous year [1][2]. - The X9 model led the delivery figures, contributing significantly to revenue growth, driven by high-value models and accelerated collaboration with Volkswagen [2]. - Gross margin doubled sequentially to 12.9%, with automotive sales and service margins improving significantly, attributed to economies of scale and high-margin partnerships [3]. - The company is accelerating its global strategy, expanding into markets like Germany, France, Thailand, and Singapore, and deepening its collaboration with Volkswagen [4]. Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 50.6 billion yuan, 98.1 billion yuan, and 109.3 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 65%, 94%, and 11% [5][6]. - The expected net profit for 2024 is a loss of 5.7 billion yuan, improving to a profit of 2.9 billion yuan by 2026 [5][6]. - The company plans to invest 3.5 billion yuan in smart research and development in 2024, aiming to accelerate AI applications [3].

根据证券期货投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任 未经国联证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利 好的各位投资者大家晚上好那个欢迎参加我们本期的呃周六刚获苏联栏目我是国联策略邓雨霖呃那么这期的这个栏目呃其实是延续我们呃上一期啊就是关于那个财报分析的其实是一个专题的第二部分那么在我们这次的财报专题里面的话呢上一期我们是聊了一些关于外需的问题 就主要是我们这次去统计了一下全球所有的商业公司大概一共有五六万家然后我们去拉了一下他的一个三档表的一些状态包括从他的一些CAPEX包括他的现金流收入等等这些维度我们在上一期跟大家交流一下就是我们如何去判断未来哪些外需可能会比较延续我们从海外的情况去看一看那么这是上一期部分的内容那么接着到这期我们把这个焦点聚焦到内需层面 我们这期的话主要是想去寻找一下就是说那么有没有哪些大家 ...

根据证券期货投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任 未经国联证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制、刊载、转载、转发、引用本次会议内容否则,由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利 大家下午好我是国联时评的刘瑾瑜欢迎大家参加我们的这个国联时评的周周谈我们之后每周五的下午都会利用接近下班的这个时间点给大家汇报一下我们最新的一个观点或者是近一周的就是板块的一个热点的情况那今天我给大家带来的主题是怎么去看待大众品板块的这个量价的一个情况其实主要是因为就是最近康舒服底价这个事引发的一个讨论啊 所以我们今天大概主要分成两个部分吧就是我这边主要汇报一下大众品的量价那最后五分钟的时间让我们的纪雷给大家详细汇报一下就是最近的这个康师傅提价这个事儿那首先大众品量价这边就是我先说结论吧就是从23年到现在大众品这边确实是 没有价格逻辑好一点的是有料没价那不好一点的就是可能量这边其实也是有比较大的一个压力那我们 ...

证券研究报告 公 2024年05月24日 司 报 告 小鹏汽车-W(09868) │ 行 业： 汽车/乘用车 港 投资评级： 股 2024 年第一季度点评： 当前价格： 31.80港元 - 公 大众合作贡献收入，利润率水平显著提升 目标价格： 司 事件： 季 基本数据 报 2024年5月21日，小鹏汽车公布第一季度财务数据。2024年第一季度， 点 总股本/流通股本(百万股) 1,889.48/1,889.48 评 小鹏汽车共交付2.2万辆，同比增长19.7%。2024年一季度实现营收65.5 流通市值(百万港元) 60,085.51 亿元，同比提升62.3%，净利润为-13.7亿元，亏损同比缩窄。 每股净资产(元) 20.51 ➢ X9引领交付数据，大众贡献收入增长亮眼 资产负债率(%) 56.04 2024年第一季度，小鹏汽车共交付新车21821台，同比增长19.7%。X9贡 一年内最高/最低(港元) 96.30/25.70 献主要车型的销量。X9/G6/G9/P7（含P7i）分别交付0.79/0.50/0.36/0.42 万辆，高价值量车型带动营收的快速提升，2024年一季度实现营收65.5亿 股价相对 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the leading human resources service company, Beijing Human Resources [5]. Core Insights - The human resources service sector is currently attractive due to low valuations after a period of adjustment from high expectations and valuations [1][9]. - Recruitment demand is showing a year-on-year recovery trend, with significant increases in the number of new recruitment companies and job postings compared to previous years [2][13]. - The overseas human resources service market is expected to grow significantly as Chinese companies continue to expand internationally, with a projected increase in overseas employees [3][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Human Resources Services: Recruitment Demand Recovery - The sector's stock prices have adjusted to reflect lower valuations after high expectations for macroeconomic recovery [1][9]. - As of May 19, 2024, the number of new recruitment companies reached 44,584, representing 171% of the levels seen in 2023 [2][13]. - Average annual salary for recruitment stands at 148,200 RMB, which is 99% of the level in 2023 [2][13]. 2. Company Comparison: Resilience of Two State-Owned Enterprises - Beijing Human Resources and Foreign Service Holdings derive stable revenue from outsourcing and traditional payroll services, showing strong operational resilience [4][22]. - The revenue contribution from outsourcing for Beijing Human Resources and Foreign Service Holdings is 83% and 77%, respectively, with significant growth rates [22][25]. - Beijing Human Resources has a competitive advantage with major clients like Huawei, which contributes significantly to its overseas business growth potential [4][33]. 3. Investment Recommendations: Focus on High-Dividend Leaders - Beijing Human Resources is highlighted for its strong management attributes in outsourcing, making it more resilient and stable in performance [5][35]. - The company is committed to returning at least 50% of its distributable profits to shareholders, primarily through cash dividends [5][35].

经济证券期货投资者适当性管理办法本次电话会议仅服务于国联证券研究所白名单客户本次会议在任何情形下都不构成对会议参加者的投资建议相关人员应自主作出投资决策并自行承担投资风险国联证券不对任何人因使用会议内容而引致的任何损失承担任何责任 为经国联证券事先书面许可任何机构或个人不得以任何形式复制刊载转载转发引用本次会议内容否则由此造成的一切后果及法律责任由该机构或个人承担本公司保留追究其法律责任的权利好谢谢大家晚上好我是国联科技团队通信组的张静本周因为微软还有国内的很多 互联网大厂的大模型啊做了一些产品和商务策略什么的更新然后昨天晚上呢英伟达又发了业绩报但今天我们看整个通信关东西的核心标的呢没有一定层面的回调所以我们在今天这个节点啊去记得响应上关切然后由我和我们传媒组的俞沪老师给大家分享一下以上两个板块的内容首先是我们有请我们的传媒组俞沪老师针对近期 美国还有国内散布性产生的一些动作来给大家做一些分析 那各位谢谢张老师那各位投资者朋友晚上好那我是国联传媒互联网研究员玉虎那欢迎大家来到我们今晚的电话会那今天我给大家带来一个这个很A点主要是说最近微软就是发布了一系列产品以及他的以及服务以及国内呢这些大模型一方面技术能力在 ...

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The central bank has introduced four support measures, including a 300 billion yuan special loan for affordable housing[1] - The minimum down payment ratio for first-time homebuyers has been reduced from 20% to 15%, and for second homes from 30% to 25%[30] - The lower limit on personal housing loan interest rates has been removed, allowing for market-driven rates[11] Group 2: Real Estate Management - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MHURD) will focus on four areas to ensure housing delivery, including tackling unfinished housing projects and preventing risks of incomplete projects[46] - Local governments are encouraged to purchase unsold inventory for affordable housing, adhering to a "demand-based" principle[28] - The Ministry of Natural Resources is preparing policies to address idle land and promote the utilization of existing land resources[12] Group 3: Financial Support Mechanisms - The Financial Supervision Administration will continue to support financing for ongoing construction projects and ensure their completion[15] - A notification will be released to enhance the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, ensuring reasonable financing needs are met[34] - Local governments are supported in reclaiming idle land at reasonable prices for affordable housing development[44]