P 2501412 F 国联证券 证券研究报告 宏观经济 | 宏观点评 通胀不改美联储将继续降息的市场预期 美国9月 CPI 数据点评 all and the street with a first TIN NEW NEW YO . 1 10 Kith B 1 20 Frida 123 THE LETT Family 11 CONTREN Harren Ho in 1982 new th - 第 II 電 1878 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 2024年10月12日 研究报告 |报告要点 美国 CPI 通胀继续回落,但是回落不及预期。美国 9 月 CPI 同比从上个月的 2.5%降到 2.4% (预期 2.3%); 9 月核心 CPI 同比增长 3.3%(预期 3.2%)。结构上,9 月商品通缩收窄，环比 增长转正,服务通胀环比持平,同比回落,其中最重要的变化可能是居所通胀环比回到 0.2%, 同比也显著下降。CPI 数据公布后，市场预期到年底总共还有 50 个基点的降息，即 11 月和 12 月分别降息 25个基点。我们认为目前的美国就业和通胀的数据意味着美联储接下来仍大概率 降息,但是否在接下来的２次会 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [6]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance announced a comprehensive policy package aimed at supporting local governments in resolving debt risks and stabilizing the real estate market. This includes increasing debt quotas and utilizing special bonds to alleviate hidden debts, which is expected to benefit urban investment real estate companies [3][6]. - The report highlights three key areas of real estate policy: 1. Special bonds can be used for land reserves, benefiting strong credit real estate companies first. 2. Support for using special bonds to acquire existing homes for affordable housing. 3. Optimizing tax policies to reduce home purchase costs and promote stable market development [3][6]. - The report suggests focusing on first-tier and core second-tier cities, emphasizing companies with sustainable land acquisition capabilities and strong competitive real estate brokerage platforms [3][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Events - On October 12, the Ministry of Finance announced measures to support local governments in addressing hidden debt risks, including a significant increase in debt quotas and the use of special bonds to stabilize the real estate market. This is expected to alleviate financial pressure on urban investment real estate companies and boost market confidence [6]. - The report anticipates that the use of special bonds for land reserves will enhance the ability to manage land supply and reduce liquidity and debt pressures on local governments and real estate companies [6]. - The report also notes that the government plans to support the acquisition of existing homes for affordable housing, which is expected to positively impact the supply-demand structure of the real estate market [6]. - Tax policy adjustments are being researched to promote stable and healthy market development, which could lower costs for homebuyers and support market expectations [6].

Group 1: Policy Environment - Domestic growth pressure is significant, with internal demand investment continuing to decline and external demand facing risks from US tariffs [5][8] - The RMB exchange rate has stabilized and appreciated, opening up domestic monetary policy space as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle [5][8] - The market's profitability effect is weak, with the proportion of individual stocks outperforming indices dropping to historical lows [5][8] Group 2: Policy Interpretation - Multiple departments have launched significant policies, with the Politburo meeting further boosting confidence in economic stability [5][15] - The central bank has introduced both traditional and innovative monetary policy tools, balancing support for the real economy and capital markets [13][15] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has emphasized mergers and acquisitions, along with market capitalization management [13][15] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The introduction of swap facilities is expected to enhance liquidity for non-bank financial institutions without expanding the monetary base [5][20] - Special re-loans are anticipated to increase the buyback efforts of listed companies, particularly those with market capitalization management needs [5][22] - A total of 107 listed companies have been identified as potential candidates for utilizing the special re-loan tool, primarily in the banking, construction, and transportation sectors [5][23]

Policy Environment - Recent central policies have been introduced, including interest rate cuts and reductions in reserve requirements, to stabilize the economy amid significant growth pressures domestically and a global shift towards rate cuts[5] - The manufacturing PMI has remained below the growth line since May, indicating a slow economic recovery, with real estate and infrastructure investment growth continuing to decline[8] - The RMB has stabilized and appreciated against the USD, providing more room for domestic monetary policy adjustments[8] Policy Interpretation - Multiple departments have launched significant policies, with the Politburo meeting emphasizing the urgency of stabilizing the economy[5] - The central bank has introduced structural monetary policy tools specifically targeting the stock market, including a 500 billion CNY swap facility and a 3000 billion CNY special re-loan for stock buybacks[13] - The average reduction in existing mortgage rates is expected to be around 50 basis points, benefiting approximately 50 million households and reducing annual interest expenses by about 150 billion CNY[19] Market Opportunities - A total of 107 listed companies meet the criteria for utilizing the new special re-loan tool, primarily in the banking, construction, and transportation sectors, with dividend yields exceeding 2.25%[23] - The proportion of stocks outperforming the index has dropped to historical lows, indicating weak market sentiment and a need for policy support[10] - The introduction of the new swap facility is expected to enhance liquidity for non-bank financial institutions without expanding the monetary base, thereby stimulating capital market activity[20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.21-3.28 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 58.5%-62.0% [10] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to the effectiveness of the company's globalization strategy, technological innovation, and brand building, with total tire sales increasing by over 30% year-on-year [10][11] - The company is advancing its globalization efforts and optimizing its product structure, which is expected to enhance its international competitiveness and ensure long-term growth [10] Financial Performance - For 2024, the company forecasts revenue of 32.2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 24% [11] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 4.28 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 38% [11] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.30 yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% over three years [10][11] Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully launched several projects, including a factory in Cambodia with an annual production capacity of 12 million semi-steel tires, and is progressing with projects in Mexico and Indonesia [10] - The company maintains a high gross margin due to market expansion and product structure optimization [10][11] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from reduced shipping costs, with significant declines in freight indices observed [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6]. Core Views - The company continues to show strong performance, leading to an upward revision of profit expectations. Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 15.975 billion, 20.242 billion, and 24.586 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.84%, 26.71%, and 21.46% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 3.204 billion, 4.185 billion, and 5.240 billion yuan, with growth rates of 57.10%, 30.61%, and 25.20% respectively, resulting in a three-year CAGR of 36.96% [3][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of 12.4-12.72 billion yuan for the first three quarters, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.50%-47.21%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2.6-2.73 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 57.04%-64.89% [10]. - For Q3 alone, the expected revenue is 4.527-4.847 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 42.32%-52.38%. The net profit is projected to be 869-999 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 58.80%-82.55% [10]. Market Expansion - The company is actively pursuing a national expansion strategy, which is driving terminal sales. The energy drink segment is expected to maintain good growth, with a trend towards younger and more diverse consumer demographics. The company is also enhancing its marketing efforts in areas like esports and street dance [10]. Valuation Metrics - The projected PE ratios for 2024-2026 are 35, 27, and 22 respectively. The company is transitioning from a leader in energy drinks to a broader beverage platform, supported by strong performance in its second growth curve and increased shareholder returns through semi-annual dividends [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the securities industry [6][7]. Core Viewpoints - On October 9, 2024, Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities announced a merger plan, where Guotai Junan will absorb Haitong Securities through a share swap, with a swap ratio of 1:0.62 [6][7]. - The share prices for the swap are set at 13.83 CNY/share for Guotai Junan and 8.57 CNY/share for Haitong Securities, reflecting a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.83x and 0.69x respectively [6][7]. - The merger is expected to significantly enhance the capital strength of the new entity, with combined net assets projected to reach 331.1 billion CNY, surpassing CITIC Securities [6][7]. - Guotai Junan plans to raise up to 10 billion CNY through additional fundraising, which could further bolster the capital of the merged entity [6][7]. - The report emphasizes that the merger will likely improve the competitive position of the new entity in the industry, particularly in derivative business [6][7]. Summary by Sections Merger Details - The merger involves a share swap where each share of Haitong Securities can be exchanged for 0.62 shares of Guotai Junan [6][7]. - The swap prices are based on the average trading prices over the 60 trading days prior to the pricing date [6][7]. Financial Implications - The combined net assets of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities will total 331.1 billion CNY, enhancing their capital strength and regional advantages [6][7]. - Guotai Junan's fundraising plan includes issuing up to 626 million A-shares at a price of 15.97 CNY/share, representing an 8.6% premium over the closing price on September 5, 2024 [6][7]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the merger aligns with regulatory policies encouraging consolidation in the securities industry, which may accelerate structural reforms [6][7]. - The current PB valuation of the securities industry is at historical lows, indicating potential investment opportunities in leading brokerages like Huatai Securities and CITIC Securities [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the securities industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The merger plan between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities is expected to enhance the development of the new entity post-merger [6]. - The exchange ratio for the merger is set at 1:0.62, meaning each share of Haitong Securities can be exchanged for 0.62 shares of Guotai Junan [6][3]. - Guotai Junan plans to raise up to 10 billion yuan through a private placement, which is anticipated to further strengthen the capital position of the merged entity [6]. - The combined net assets of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities are projected to reach 331.1 billion yuan, surpassing Citic Securities [6]. - The report emphasizes that the merger will likely enhance the competitive strength of the new entity in various business areas, particularly in derivatives [6]. Summary by Sections Merger Details - On October 9, 2024, Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities announced the merger plan, with the exchange prices for A-shares set at 13.83 yuan and 8.57 yuan respectively [6]. - The merger is structured to provide cash options for dissenting shareholders, with cash compensation for Haitong shareholders set at 9.28 yuan for A-shares and 4.16 Hong Kong dollars for H-shares [6]. Financial Implications - The report notes that the price-to-book (PB) ratios for Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities are 0.83x and 0.69x respectively, indicating a favorable valuation for the merger [6]. - The planned fundraising of up to 10 billion yuan is based on a share price of 15.97 yuan, which represents an 8.6% premium over the closing price on September 5, 2024 [6]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the regulatory environment is conducive to mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, which may accelerate structural reforms [6]. - It highlights that the current PB valuations in the securities industry are at historical lows, making it an opportune time to invest in leading brokerages like Huatai Securities and Citic Securities [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][10]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in new contract growth, with a total of 52.8 billion yuan in new contracts signed from Q1 to Q3 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 1%. In Q3 alone, new contracts amounted to 15.7 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-over-year growth of 35% [10]. - As of the end of Q3 2024, the company's uncompleted contract amount reached 62.1 billion yuan, which is a year-over-year decrease of 1% but a 5% increase compared to the end of Q2 2024, equating to 1.4 times the expected revenue for the entire year of 2023 [10]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 50.5 billion yuan, 56.4 billion yuan, and 63.8 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 10%, 12%, and 13% [10]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company reported strong growth in new contracts, particularly in Q3 2024, with domestic engineering contracts showing a year-over-year increase of 309% [10]. - The operational and maintenance segment continued to perform well, with a year-over-year growth of 36% in new contracts for Q1-Q3 2024 [10]. - The company’s business structure has been positively adjusted over recent years, leading to improved performance in the operational and maintenance sectors [10]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for the company's revenue and net profit for 2024-2026 indicates a steady growth trajectory, with net profit expected to reach 3.3 billion yuan, 3.7 billion yuan, and 4.3 billion yuan for the respective years, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 13%, 14%, and 14% [10]. - The company’s financial metrics show a projected EBITDA of 6.165 billion yuan in 2024, with a corresponding year-over-year growth rate of 36.92% [11]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the global cement industry, with a balanced business model across operational, equipment, and engineering services [10]. - The ongoing digitalization and green initiatives are expected to enhance the company's competitiveness and optimize its business model [10].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism reported that during the National Day holiday, domestic travel reached 765 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, and a 10.2% increase compared to the same period in 2019. Total spending by domestic tourists was 700.82 billion yuan, up 6.3% year-on-year and 7.9% compared to 2019 [3][12][21] - Domestic travel shows resilience with per capita spending recovering to 97.9% of 2019 levels, indicating a strong recovery trend [12][21] - The inbound tourism market continues to grow significantly, with 13.098 million people entering and exiting the country during the holiday, a daily average increase of 25.8% year-on-year [20][21] Summary by Sections 1. Travel Market Overview - Domestic travel enthusiasm continues, with a total of 765 million trips during the National Day holiday, reflecting a recovery rate of 110.2% compared to 2019 [12][15] - Per capita spending during the holiday reached 97.9% of 2019 levels, indicating a positive trend in consumer behavior [12][15] 2. Domestic Travel Trends - The trend of destination "downward" continues, with traditional scenic spots and lesser-known counties gaining popularity. For instance, popular scenic spots like Emei Mountain and Huangshan saw visitor numbers increase by 19% and 12% respectively [21][22] - The younger demographic is becoming a significant part of the travel market, with those born after 2000 accounting for nearly 20% of travel orders during the holiday [23] 3. Hotel and Dining Sector - National hotel occupancy (OCC) increased by 5.1% year-on-year during the holiday, although average daily rates (ADR) saw a decline of about 11% [25][27] - Dining consumption during the holiday increased by 33.4% compared to the previous year, with notable growth in evening dining [27] 4. Industry Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on cyclical sectors such as hospitality, dining, and tourism, with specific recommendations for companies like Beijing Human Resources, Jin Jiang Hotels, and China Duty Free [31]