Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a steady increase in domestic travel volume and stable pricing, with significant growth in inbound and outbound travel [6][9] - The National Tourism Administration reported that during the National Day holiday, domestic travel reached 765 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% and a 10.2% increase compared to 2019 [9][12] - Total spending by domestic tourists was 700.82 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a 7.9% increase compared to 2019 [9][12] Summary by Sections 1. Travel Overview: Continued Enthusiasm for Travel - Domestic travel data shows a "volume increase and stable prices" trend, with 765 million domestic trips taken during the National Day holiday [12] - Per capita spending has recovered to 97.9% of the 2019 level, indicating a strong recovery in consumer behavior [12][15] 2. Domestic Travel Trends: Downward and Youthful - The trend of destination downscaling continues, with significant growth in bookings from third-tier cities and below, reflecting a shift towards more affordable travel options [21][23] - The main travel demographic is becoming younger, with a notable increase in travel orders from the post-2000 generation [23] 3. Hotel and Restaurant Performance: National Hotel Occupancy Rate Up - National hotel occupancy rates (OCC) increased by 5.1% year-on-year during the National Day holiday, although average daily rates (ADR) saw a decline of approximately 11% [25][27] - Restaurant dining saw a significant increase in consumer spending, with a 33.4% year-on-year growth in average daily consumption during the first five days of the holiday [27] 4. Industry Outlook and Investment Recommendations: Focus on Cyclical Recovery - The report anticipates steady growth in domestic tourism and continued expansion in inbound tourism, driven by policy support and changing consumer behavior [31] - Recommended sectors for investment include human resources, hotels, restaurants, and tourism, with specific companies highlighted for potential growth [31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changan Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - Changan Automobile's wholesale sales in September reached 213,200 units, a year-on-year decline of 9.98% but a month-on-month increase of 13.93%. Cumulatively, from January to September, the company achieved wholesale sales of 1,905,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 1.89% [11] - The company is entering a strong product cycle with a series of new car launches in September, which is expected to support steady sales growth in the future [11] - The performance of Changan's self-owned new energy vehicles remains robust, with September sales of 54,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.65% and a month-on-month increase of 11.55% [11] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market, with self-owned brand overseas sales in September reaching 30,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 58.18% [11] - The report forecasts revenue growth for Changan Automobile from 2024 to 2026, with expected revenues of 179.75 billion, 210.47 billion, and 242.02 billion yuan, corresponding to growth rates of 18.81%, 17.09%, and 14.99% respectively [12] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September, Changan's total wholesale sales were 213,200 units, down 9.98% year-on-year but up 13.93% month-on-month. For the first nine months, total sales reached 1,905,000 units, up 1.89% year-on-year [11] - Self-owned brand sales in September were 172,600 units, down 8.49% year-on-year but up 14.04% month-on-month, with a total of 1,584,500 units sold from January to September, reflecting a 2.28% year-on-year increase [11] New Product Launches - September saw the launch of several new models, including the Avita 07, which achieved 11,673 pre-orders within 20 hours of its launch. This strong product cycle is expected to drive future sales growth [11] New Energy Vehicles - Changan's new energy vehicle sales in September were 54,400 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.65% and a month-on-month increase of 11.55%. From January to September, total new energy vehicle sales reached 447,600 units, up 45.96% year-on-year [11] Overseas Expansion - The company is pushing for overseas expansion, with the Avita 11 officially launched in Thailand in September. Self-owned brand overseas sales reached 30,600 units in September, up 58.18% year-on-year [11] Financial Forecast - The report projects Changan's revenue for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 179.75 billion, 210.47 billion, and 242.02 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 18.81%, 17.09%, and 14.99% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 7.50 billion, 10.60 billion, and 12.61 billion yuan for the same period [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [1] Core Views - The domestic sales of home appliances are accelerating, with a significant increase in retail sales since late August, particularly in air conditioning [6][10] - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies, including the promotion of trade-in programs and easing of real estate regulations, which are expected to boost demand [6][8] - The performance of leading companies such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances is expected to remain strong, supported by robust export orders and solid financial performance [6][10] Summary by Sections October Investment Views - The report emphasizes the potential for a "double boost" in the home appliance sector due to increased domestic demand and favorable macroeconomic conditions [6] - Recommendations include Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, and Hisense Home Appliances for their strong market positions and growth prospects [6] September Market Review - The home appliance index increased by 21.91% in September, outperforming the broader market indices [10] - The report notes a recovery in consumer demand driven by government incentives and improved economic conditions [10] Key Data Tracking - Air conditioning retail sales showed significant improvement, with online sales up by 105% year-on-year in late September [41] - The report tracks the performance of major brands, indicating a mixed performance in domestic and international sales, with some brands gaining market share [41] Investment Recommendations & Core Report - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong brand recognition and innovative product offerings, particularly in the air conditioning and small appliance segments [6] - It highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and consumer sentiment as key drivers of future performance in the home appliance sector [6][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the chemical industry [1]. Core Insights - The overall valuation of the chemical industry remains low, with basic chemicals and petroleum and petrochemicals having PE-TTM at the 44% and 17% valuation percentiles, respectively [2]. - Within basic chemicals, several sub-sectors have PE-TTM below the 15% percentile, including carbon black at 14%, soda ash at 10%, polyester at 10%, compound fertilizers at 6%, and tires at 1% [2]. - Sub-sectors with PE-TTM between 16%-40% include inorganic salts at 36%, coatings and inks at 35%, membrane materials at 28%, and civil explosives at 24% [2]. - In the petroleum and petrochemical sector, oil and gas extraction has the lowest PE-TTM valuation percentile at 8%, while oil product trading and oilfield services are in the 16%-40% range at 26% and 19%, respectively [2]. Summary by Relevant Categories Basic Chemicals - PE-TTM for carbon black is at 14%, soda ash at 10%, polyester at 10%, compound fertilizers at 6%, and tires at 1% [2]. - Inorganic salts have a PE-TTM of 36%, coatings and inks at 35%, membrane materials at 28%, and civil explosives at 24% [2]. Petroleum and Petrochemicals - Oil and gas extraction has a PE-TTM valuation percentile of 8% [2]. - Oil product trading and oilfield services have PE-TTM at 26% and 19%, respectively, both within the 16%-40% range [2].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the refrigerant industry, particularly focusing on leading companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Jinshi Resources [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant impact of the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment on the refrigerant industry, highlighting the global shift towards phasing out high GWP refrigerants. China plays a crucial role in the global supply chain, holding over 74% of the global HFCs production quota [5][8]. - The domestic market for third-generation refrigerants is expected to maintain a favorable outlook, with a projected supply gap for R22 and R32 in 2024, while R134a is anticipated to have a relatively abundant supply [5][9]. - The report indicates that the "old-for-new" policy in the air conditioning and automotive sectors is expected to boost short-term demand for HFCs, with long-term growth prospects remaining strong in emerging markets [5][9]. Summary by Sections Global Refrigerant Industry Development and Supply Dynamics - The refrigerant industry has evolved significantly over the past century, transitioning from CFCs to more environmentally friendly alternatives due to international regulations [13][16]. - The Montreal Protocol has been pivotal in controlling substances that deplete the ozone layer, leading to the gradual phase-out of CFCs and HCFCs [13][16]. China's Role in Refrigerant Supply - China is actively reducing HCFCs and managing HFCs quotas, with a production capacity that significantly influences global supply dynamics [5][8]. - The report forecasts a supply gap for R22 of approximately 12,600 tons and a notable shortage for R32 in 2024, while R134a is expected to be in surplus [5][9]. International Developments - Developed economies like the US, EU, and Japan are implementing stricter regulations to phase out HFCs, which may lead to increased demand for imports from China [5][9]. - The report highlights the ongoing need for HFCs in developed markets, with a significant portion of China's HFCs products being exported [5][9]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to focus on leading companies in the fluorochemical industry that demonstrate strong performance in supply chain integration, infrastructure development, and technological advancements [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector [3][6]. Core Insights - The recent policy measures aim to stabilize economic growth while maintaining bank interest margins. In the short term, these policies are expected to reduce the net interest margin (NIM) of listed banks by approximately 9.87 basis points (BP) in 2025. However, if these policies lead to an accelerated economic recovery, banks may benefit from improved macroeconomic conditions and asset quality, potentially restoring valuations [3][10][21]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures and Economic Stability - The recent policy package includes lowering existing mortgage rates and adjusting the minimum down payment ratios to stabilize the economy and support banks [9][10]. - The central bank has also reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market [9][10]. Impact on Net Interest Margin - The reduction in existing mortgage rates is expected to lower the NIM of listed banks by 6.32 BP in 2025, with a potential further reduction of 7.46 BP if the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is cut by 20 BP [6][12][18]. - The report anticipates that the adjustment of mortgage rates will stabilize the mortgage loan scale, which is crucial for banks' asset quality [17]. Dividend Yield and Investment Outlook - The current dividend yield for banking stocks is 4.88%, which remains attractive compared to other asset classes, indicating a favorable investment opportunity in the banking sector [3][10]. - Overall, the report expresses a positive outlook for the banking industry, suggesting that the impact of the recent policies is neutral in the long term, with potential benefits from economic recovery [3][10].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the refrigerant industry, particularly focusing on leading companies such as Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., Haohua Technology, and Jinshi Resources [12]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant impact of the Montreal Protocol and its Kigali Amendment on the refrigerant industry, highlighting the global shift towards phasing out high GWP refrigerants. China plays a crucial role in the global supply chain, holding over 74% of the global HFCs production quota [11][14]. - The domestic market for third-generation refrigerants is expected to maintain a favorable outlook, with a projected supply gap for R22 and R32 in 2024, while R134a supply is anticipated to be relatively abundant [11][15]. - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to boost short-term demand for HFCs, with long-term growth prospects driven by increasing refrigerant needs in emerging markets [12][15]. Summary by Sections Global Refrigerant Industry Development and Supply Dynamics - The report outlines the historical development of refrigerants, noting the transition from CFCs to HCFCs and now to HFCs, driven by environmental regulations [19][22]. - It details the global supply capabilities of HFCs in 2024, with China, the US, and the EU being the major contributors [11][14]. China's HCFCs and HFCs Management - China's efforts in phasing out HCFCs and managing HFC quotas are highlighted, with specific projections for supply gaps in R22 and R32 for 2024 [11][15]. - The report notes that the 2025 quota plan has been established, indicating a structured approach to managing refrigerant supply [11]. International Developments - The report discusses the stricter regulations being implemented in developed economies, including the US and EU, regarding the phase-out of HFCs [12][15]. - It also mentions the current status of refrigerant supply in India and the Middle East, indicating a global trend towards stricter controls [11][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the fluorochemical industry that demonstrate strong performance in supply chain integration, infrastructure development, and technological advancements [12][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the banking sector [3][6]. Core Insights - The recent policy measures aim to stabilize economic growth while maintaining bank interest margins. In the short term, these policies are expected to reduce the net interest margin (NIM) of listed banks by approximately 9.87 basis points (BP) in 2025. However, if these policies lead to an accelerated economic recovery, banks may benefit from improved macroeconomic conditions and asset quality, potentially restoring valuations [3][10][21]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures and Economic Stability - The recent policy package includes lowering existing mortgage rates and adjusting the minimum down payment ratio for housing loans. The average reduction in mortgage rates is expected to be around 50 BP [9][10]. - A reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5 percentage points is anticipated to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity to the financial market [9][10]. - The central bank has also lowered the policy interest rate by 20 BP, which is expected to lead to a similar decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [18][21]. Impact on Net Interest Margin - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates is projected to lower the NIM of listed banks by 6.32 BP in 2025. This is due to the significant volume of early repayments and the disparity between existing and new mortgage rates [12][15]. - A 20 BP reduction in the LPR is expected to further decrease the NIM by 7.46 BP in 2025, with the overall impact on the asset side being a reduction of 0.81 BP in asset yield [18][20]. - The report indicates that the NIM for state-owned banks will be more adversely affected compared to joint-stock banks [20]. Dividend Yield and Investment Outlook - The current dividend yield for banking stocks is reported at 4.88%, which remains attractive compared to other asset classes. This suggests that despite the anticipated pressure on NIM, the banking sector still offers a favorable investment opportunity [3][10]. - Overall, the report expresses a positive outlook for the banking sector's future development, maintaining the "Outperform" rating [3][10].

证券研究报告 非金融公司|公司深度|科沃斯（603486） 回首来时路，砥砺再前行 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月08日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 本篇报告通过复盘科沃斯近年来发展历程，聚焦行业发展趋势以及公司产品迭代情况，通过 复盘，我们认为科沃斯当前或已迎来经营向上拐点，蓄势待发。收入端，公司两大自主品牌科 沃斯、添可品牌外销收入快速增长，有望强化公司成长性，内销端 2024 年以来公司加快布局 扫地机新品，内销份额有望逐步企稳；盈利端，扫地机价格总体稳健，洗地机虽价格下探，但 公司低成本新品占比持续提高，叠加费用投放优化，盈利端改善或更为确定。综上，我们认为 科沃斯业绩拐点在即，建议积极关注。 |分析师及联系人 管泉森 孙珊 莫云皓 SAC：S0590523100007 SAC：S0590523110003 SAC：S0590523120001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 38 非金融公司|公司深度 glzqdatemark2 2024年10月08日 科沃斯(603486) 回首来时路，砥砺再前行 | --- | --- | --- | |----- ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant revaluation opportunity for Chinese assets, particularly Hong Kong stocks, which have emerged as the best-performing market globally year-to-date [2][5]. - The combination of the "9·24 policy package" and a positive tone from the September Politburo meeting has shifted the policy direction, creating a favorable environment for Chinese assets [2][5]. - With the Federal Reserve entering a rate-cutting cycle and internal policy space opening up, both the numerator and denominator of Hong Kong stock valuations are expected to benefit, leading to potential further increases in stock prices [2][5]. Market Review - Following the "9·24 policy package," Chinese assets experienced a broad rally, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 13.0% and 20.2% respectively in the week of September 27, marking historical highs [5]. - During the holiday period, Hong Kong stocks continued to lead globally, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index gaining 10.2% and 17.4% in a single week [5]. - The report notes strong performance in sectors such as diversified finance, insurance, semiconductors, retail, media, and real estate, which saw the highest gains [5][10]. Catalysts - The report identifies the initiation of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle on September 18 as a key external catalyst that has positively influenced market sentiment [5]. - The September 24 announcement of various monetary policy measures, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, has significantly boosted market confidence [5][15]. - The Politburo's discussion on economic issues and commitment to enhancing counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal adjustments further solidified market optimism [5][15]. Market Outlook - Despite a substantial rebound over two weeks, Hong Kong stocks remain undervalued, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index trading at PE percentiles of 68.3% and 32.9%, respectively, indicating room for further appreciation [5][16]. - The report suggests that foreign capital is likely to be a significant source of incremental funds for the market, as evidenced by a notable increase in average daily trading volume reaching 378.1 billion HKD, a historical high [5][17]. - The focus on performance-driven investments indicates that sectors with healthy earnings fundamentals, such as information technology and consumer discretionary, are expected to outperform [5][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report advocates for a performance-oriented investment strategy, emphasizing the importance of earnings capability as a key differentiator in the market [5]. - Specific attention is drawn to leading internet companies like Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Meituan, which are anticipated to attract foreign investment and perform well under the influence of new capital inflows [5][10].