Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the non-ferrous metals sector [6][14]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector is currently undervalued, with the industry index PE-TTM at 19.09 times, which is in the 14.15% percentile since 2008, indicating it is still in a historical low range [10][15]. - Positive policy developments and seasonal demand in the industry are expected to create investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [3][30]. - The report highlights specific companies to watch: for copper, it recommends WISCO Resources, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Jincheng Mining; for aluminum, it suggests China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Yun Aluminum; for tin, it recommends Yunnan Tin Company, Xinyi Silver Tin, and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals [3][14]. Summary by Sections Valuation Analysis - The non-ferrous metals sector is at a historical low valuation, with sub-sector PE-TTM ratios as follows: industrial metals at 16.50, precious metals at 31.38, minor metals at 20.79, energy metals at 17.81, and new metal materials at 31.77, all indicating low percentile rankings since 2008 [10][15]. Fund Holdings - The proportion of public fund holdings in the non-ferrous metals sector has been oscillating upwards since Q4 2019, with a current ratio of 5.74% as of Q2 2024, reflecting a slight increase [11][28]. Macro Economic Factors - Recent macroeconomic policies from the Central Committee emphasize lowering reserve requirements and interest rates, which are expected to stabilize the real estate market and improve demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [12][30]. Price Trends and Forecasts - The average price of copper in Q3 2024 was 75,200 CNY/ton, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, while aluminum averaged 19,700 CNY/ton, up 5.4% year-on-year. The report anticipates further price increases for copper and aluminum in Q4 2024 due to supply constraints and rising demand [13][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report continues to favor investment in the non-ferrous metals sector, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating and recommending specific companies across various sub-sectors [14][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic, wind, and lithium battery sectors are experiencing a rebound in their economic conditions, with potential for a Davis double [4] - The current valuations of the photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors are relatively low, while the wind sector remains stable [4][7] - The overall risk in the industry is being released, indicating a potential upward turning point for profitability [21] Summary by Sections Valuation - Since 2022, the valuations of the photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors have dropped to relatively low levels, while the wind sector has remained stable [7] - As of September 30, 2024, the PE (TTM) ratios for the photovoltaic, wind, and lithium battery sectors are 33.77, 35.24, and 28.78 respectively, with the photovoltaic and lithium sectors at historical percentiles of 52.76% and 28.20% [7] Holdings - In Q2 2024, the fund holding ratio for the new energy sector is 8.28%, down by 0.63 percentage points from the previous quarter, which is at the historical average level since 2020 [9] - The overweight ratio for the new energy sector is 2.39%, also below the historical average since 2020 [9][10] Prices - Major raw material prices are stabilizing, indicating limited further decline and potential support for demand release [11] - Prices for key products like photovoltaic modules and lithium battery cells have significantly decreased from their peaks, with reductions of 65%, 62%, and 51% respectively [11] Profitability - The overall revenue growth in the new energy sector is slowing, with net profit showing a decline since Q3 2023 [21] - In Q2 2024, the TTM revenue for the new energy sector is 37,832.4 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 27.56%, while the net profit is 1,721.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 26.10% [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with advantageous market positions and innovative technologies in the photovoltaic, wind, and lithium sectors [26][28] - Recommended companies include leading photovoltaic firms like LONGi Green Energy and inverter companies like Sungrow Power Supply [26][28]

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The power industry is undergoing a new growth phase, with continuous increases in electricity consumption boosting power demand. The scarcity of base-load power sources such as hydropower, thermal power, and nuclear power is highlighted, with expected improvements in utilization hours and electricity prices due to ongoing green energy policies and the construction of ultra-high voltage transmission channels [10][19] - Benefiting from electricity market reforms, the revenue mechanism for power operators is expected to shift towards comprehensive revenue, leading to increased cash flow and gradually rising dividend ratios, enhancing long-term investment value [10][19] Summary by Sections 1. Performance Recovery and Asset Scale Expansion - From the beginning of 2024 to September 30, the power sector has seen a price increase of 20.64%. The significant increase in installed capacity has driven revenue growth, with net profit showing a fluctuating growth trend influenced by coal prices [13][15] - As of August 2024, the total installed power capacity reached 3127.6 GW, a year-on-year increase of 13.87% [19] 2. Strong Power Demand and Expected Increase in Dividend Ratios - National electricity consumption maintained a high growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in 2023 and 7.9% from January to August 2024. The highest load growth in the Southern Power Grid was 18%, and in the East China Power Grid, it was 23% [22][24] - The return on equity (ROE) for hydropower and nuclear power was 12.4% and 10.8% respectively in 2023, with increases of 2.3 and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [32] 3. Marginal Catalysis of Electricity Reform Promotes Growth - The core of the electricity reform policy is to promote marketization among various entities, transitioning from planned pricing to competitive bidding, which will rationally allocate power source costs [40][44] - The construction of the spot market is accelerating, with provinces like Guangdong and Shanxi already in formal operation, allowing real-time price signals to reflect supply and demand relationships [46][48] 4. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Quality Assets with Growth and Dividend Attributes - The report suggests focusing on quality assets that exhibit both growth and dividend characteristics, particularly in thermal power, where low coal prices are expected to enhance profitability in 2024 [49] - For renewable energy, the report highlights the potential for improved electricity pricing environments and suggests monitoring companies like Three Gorges Energy and solar energy firms [49][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [6]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from multiple favorable policies and a recovering economy, with both domestic demand and exports contributing to a positive fundamental outlook [9][16]. - The automotive industry is identified as a key driver for economic growth and technological advancement, with significant contributions to employment and consumption [19][25]. - The report highlights the effectiveness of recent policies, particularly the vehicle replacement subsidies, which have led to increased vehicle registrations and a boost in exports [37]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Multiple Favorable Policies and Strong Outlook for the Automotive Sector - Recent policies from the central bank and regulatory bodies are expected to enhance market liquidity and investor confidence, contributing to a rebound in the automotive sector [9][14]. - The automotive industry has shown resilience, with significant increases in vehicle registrations and exports, indicating a recovery in demand [16][17]. The Automotive Industry as a Core Driver of Economic Growth and New Productive Forces - The automotive sector accounted for 4.86 trillion yuan in retail sales in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.2% and comprising 10.3% of total retail sales in China [19]. - Employment in the automotive sector has grown significantly, with the number of employees in major vehicle and battery companies increasing from 425,000 in H1 2020 to 1,093,000 in H1 2024 [22]. Fundamentals: Policy Intensification and Resonance of Domestic Demand and Exports - The report notes that the average subsidy for vehicle replacement has reached approximately 12,200 yuan, with over 1.13 million applications for subsidies submitted as of September 24 [9][37]. - Vehicle registrations in July and August showed positive growth, with July registrations at 1.77 million (up 1.9% year-on-year) and August at 1.94 million (up 3.3% year-on-year) [9][37]. Investment Recommendations: Beneficiaries in Complete Vehicles and New Opportunities in Components - The report recommends investing in passenger vehicle manufacturers such as BYD, Geely, and Li Auto, as well as component manufacturers like Delian Technology and Fuyao Glass [9][37]. - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the commercial vehicle segment, particularly with policies supporting the replacement of old trucks [9][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the home appliance industry [9]. Core Viewpoints - The new round of "trade-in for new" policies initiated by the central government has transitioned from central guidance to local implementation, with over two-thirds of provincial plans expanding product categories beyond the central eight categories [3][10]. - The estimated total sales from the trade-in subsidies for home appliances could reach approximately 32% of the 2023 retail sales if 30% of the central subsidy funds are allocated to seven categories of home appliances and computers [10][11]. - Leading white goods companies are expected to benefit significantly due to their advantages in pricing structure and channel distribution, especially in the mid-to-high-end market segments [12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Elements Worth Noting - The new round of trade-in policies has been significantly enhanced since the beginning of the year, with various provinces launching their plans, often supported by local fiscal measures [16]. - The central government has outlined specific categories and funding sources, with 30 provincial plans already published, many of which include additional product categories such as vacuum cleaners and dishwashers [16][17]. 2. Quantifying the Impact of the Trade-in Program - As of late September, the trade-in program has shown promising results, with retail monitoring indicating double-digit growth in sales and customer traffic, particularly in the mid-to-high-end segments [10][11]. - The average sales price for subsidized products is estimated to be over 4,000 yuan, reflecting a significant increase compared to the average market price for major appliances [10][11]. 3. Insights on Pricing Structure and Market Dynamics - The current subsidy structure favors high-efficiency products, with the average subsidy reaching approximately 18.5% to 19.5%, closely aligned with policy limits [11][12]. - The leading brands in the white goods sector dominate the high-end price segments, with significant market shares in offline channels, indicating a trend towards increased market concentration [12][13].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the industry [4] Core Viewpoints - High-energy-consuming computing clusters are driving AI model training from single data center (DC) to multi-DC collaborative training, with long-distance asynchronous collaborative training becoming mainstream [2] - Meta and Google have already started multi-DC distributed training, with Google's Gemini 1 Ultra being a notable example [2] - OpenAI and Microsoft plan to interconnect their large-scale campuses nationwide for extensive distributed training [2] - Multi-DC collaborative training poses challenges to network infrastructure, particularly in terms of packet loss sensitivity and load balancing [6] - 400G ZR coherent technology is expected to replace traditional WDM systems, with demand for ZR optical modules likely to grow [6] - The AI computing power demand is spreading to DCI scenarios, potentially driving rapid growth in the DCI market [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Multi-DC Collaborative Training - Meta and Google are actively deploying multi-DC distributed training, with Google's Gemini 1 Ultra being a key example [6] - Google has two major multi-DC regions in Ohio and Iowa/Nebraska, with plans to expand capacity significantly [9] - OpenAI and Microsoft are planning nationwide distributed training by interconnecting their large-scale campuses [10] Challenges in Distributed Training - AI training is entering the era of 100,000-card clusters, posing challenges for cross-DC collaborative training [11] - Key challenges include high sensitivity to packet loss, load balancing issues due to elephant flows, and extreme traffic bursts reaching thousands of Tbps [11] - Current 10km cross-building parallel training can achieve less than 5% efficiency loss, but future 100km and 1000km training will require advanced DCI networks and other technologies to keep losses below 10% [11] DCI Interconnection Solutions and Market Analysis - 400G ZR coherent optical technology is expected to replace traditional WDM systems in DCI, offering a more streamlined solution [14] - LightCounting predicts growth in 400G ZR and ZR+ optical modules from 2024 to 2028, with 400G ZR priced at $3,230 in 2023 and 800G ZR at $4,800 in 2024 [17] - DCI scenarios will choose different products based on communication distance, with DWDM+ZR modules preferred for cross-campus connections [15] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the DCI industry chain and 400G/800G ZR suppliers, including domestic OTN manufacturers like ZTE, FiberHome, and Accelink [21] - Companies with 400G/800G ZR product layouts, such as Eoptolink, InnoLight, and HG Tech, are also highlighted for attention [21] - The report suggests prioritizing overseas DCI markets in the short term, with a long-term focus on domestic DCI development [18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is maintained at "Buy" [7] Core Views - BYD's September sales report shows a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales, reaching 418,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 45.6% and a month-on-month growth of 12.6% [11] - The sales of pure electric vehicles reached 165,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1% and a month-on-month growth of 11.1%, while plug-in hybrid sales surged to 253,000 units, marking an 86.2% year-on-year increase and a 13.6% month-on-month increase [11] - The company's overseas sales reached 33,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.7% and a month-on-month growth of 5.0% [11] - The launch of the fifth-generation DM technology has enhanced product competitiveness, with new models achieving significant sales shortly after their release [11] - High-end brand sales and overseas expansion are expected to drive long-term performance improvements, with high-end brand sales growing by 37.4% year-on-year and overseas sales increasing by 104.7% year-on-year [11][12] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In September, BYD achieved a record monthly sales of 418,000 new energy vehicles, with significant growth in both year-on-year and month-on-month comparisons [11] - The breakdown of sales includes 165,000 pure electric vehicles and 253,000 plug-in hybrids, showcasing strong demand across different segments [11] Product Development - The introduction of DM5.0 technology has improved vehicle efficiency and extended range, contributing to the strong sales performance of new models [11] - The pricing strategy for new models has been adjusted to enhance competitiveness, with price increases for certain models leading to higher average selling prices [11] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for BYD from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 813.1 billion, 952.98 billion, and 1,162.64 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 35.0%, 17.2%, and 22.0% [12] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 38.94 billion, 50.58 billion, and 63.31 billion yuan, with growth rates of 29.6%, 29.9%, and 25.2% [12] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 13.4, 17.4, and 21.8 yuan, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.2% over three years [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - The photovoltaic, wind, and lithium battery sectors are experiencing a rebound in their economic conditions, with potential for a Davis double effect as demand improves and profitability rises [2][4] - The current valuations for the photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors are relatively low, while the wind sector remains stable [7][11] - The overall risk in the industry is being released, indicating a potential upward turning point for profitability [21] Summary by Sections Valuation - Since 2022, the valuations of the photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors have significantly declined, with the PE ratios as of September 30, 2024, being 33.77 for photovoltaic, 35.24 for wind, and 28.78 for lithium [7][8] Holdings - As of Q2 2024, the fund holding ratio for the new energy sector is 8.28%, which is below the historical average since 2020, indicating a decrease in the overweight ratio [9][10] Prices - Major raw material prices are stabilizing, with significant declines observed in the prices of photovoltaic components, wind turbines, and lithium battery cells since their peaks [11][15] Profitability - The overall revenue for the new energy sector is growing, but the net profit has been declining since Q3 2023, with a TTM net profit of 1721.8 billion yuan as of Q2 2024, down 26.10% year-on-year [21][23] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with competitive advantages and innovative technologies in the photovoltaic, wind, and lithium battery sectors, including companies like LONGi Green Energy and CATL [26][28]

Labor Market Trends - The US unemployment rate fell from 4.22% in August to 4.05% in September, showing resilience in the labor market[2][5] - Non-farm payrolls added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly exceeding expectations, with private sector employment increasing by 222,300[2][6] - The job vacancy-to-unemployment ratio was 1.13 in August, below pre-pandemic levels, with job vacancies rising to over 8 million[2][8] Wage and Inflation Dynamics - Average hourly earnings in September grew by 3.97% year-over-year, slightly above expectations, while monthly growth slowed to 0.37%[34] - Wage growth outpaced inflation in 9 out of 13 private sectors, with leisure and hospitality leading at a 31.7% increase since pre-pandemic[39][40] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates in 2024, but the pace may slow due to stronger-than-expected labor market data[2][8] - Market expectations for a 50-basis-point rate cut in November dropped to less than 1% after the September jobs report[61][67] Job Market Structural Changes - The Beveridge Curve has shifted post-pandemic, with recent data suggesting a return to pre-pandemic levels, indicating potential future unemployment rate increases as job vacancies decline[48][51] - Labor force participation remained unchanged at 62.7% in September, still 0.6 percentage points below pre-pandemic highs[14][16]

国防军工周报(10.1-10.6)： 再次重申增配军工 的底层逻辑 国联证券国防军工研究团队 2024年10月6日 证券研究报告 报告评级：强于大市丨维持 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 第一部分 1、基本面底部反转且业绩逐季改善的胜率越来越高 2、增量资金边际决定军工涨跌且具备较大增持空间 第二部分 第三部分 3、坚定看好军工在牛市中的估值弹性和比较优势 目 录 可欠 1、基本面底部反转且业绩逐季改善的胜率 越来越高 军委政治局延安会议顺利召开，两任国防部长被开除党籍军籍，移交司法 ◥ 中央军委政治工作会议于2024年6月17日至19日在陕西延安召开，习近平出席会议并发表重大讲话。 ◥ 节点意义较大，或意味着装备建设再出发。类比10年前的古田会议，本次延安会议也是在强军事业关键当口召开的、具有里程碑意义的重要会议，核心是引领人民军队 新征程上再出发、政治建军开新篇。中共中央政治局委员、中央军委副主席张又侠、何卫东，中央军委委员刘振立、苗华、张升民出席会议。军委机关各部委、军委各 直属机构、军委联指中心、各战区、各军兵种、军委各直属单位、武警部队主要负责同志等参加会议。 ◥ 强调重大节点不变，装备建设的长周期逻 ...