Group 1: Travel and Transportation - During the National Day holiday, intercity travel increased significantly, with a 2.8% year-on-year growth compared to 2023 and a 24.0% increase compared to 2019[11] - The average subway passenger volume in 11 cities showed a compound growth of 4.1% compared to the same period in 2019, improving from 2.5% during the May Day holiday[18] - The average congestion index in 100 cities was 1.38, better than 1.33 in 2023 and 1.32 during the May Day holiday[21] Group 2: Consumer Spending - Daily average movie attendance during the holiday reached 0.08 billion, up from 0.03 billion during the Mid-Autumn Festival and 0.07 billion last year[25] - The average ticket price for movies dropped to 40.4 yuan, down from 41.9 yuan last year, indicating a "volume up, price down" trend in movie consumption[25] - Domestic tourism consumption is expected to rebound, with some regions reporting a 14.9% increase in visitor numbers compared to the May Day holiday[27] Group 3: Real Estate Market - New home sales area showed signs of improvement during the holiday, with a compound average growth rate of -13.0% compared to 2019, an improvement from -19.3% before the Politburo meeting[32] - First-tier cities saw a recovery of 12.3 percentage points in new home sales compared to the previous month, indicating a stronger rebound in high-energy cities[34] - The real estate sector's recent policy adjustments have positively influenced consumer risk appetite, contributing to improved sales figures[31]

PMI Performance - The September PMI composite index was 49.8%, up 0.7 percentage points from August's 49.1%[5] - Seasonally adjusted, the September PMI index was 49.6%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points[5] - Small enterprises showed significant improvement, with their PMI rising by 1.1 percentage points to 47.7%[19] Supply and Demand Indicators - Both supply and demand sub-indices improved, with the supply index rising by 0.7 percentage points and the demand index by 0.3 percentage points[21] - The new orders sub-index was at 49.7%, rebounding by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[21] - The production sub-index increased to 50.5%, a substantial rise of 0.7 percentage points[21] Economic Outlook - Industrial production is expected to see a mild recovery, supported by recent counter-cyclical adjustments and policy measures[57] - The GDP growth rate is projected to exceed 1.2%-1.3% in the upcoming quarter, indicating a return to a recovery trajectory[57] - High-frequency data, such as coal consumption for power generation, showed a 6.4% increase compared to the same period in 2019, suggesting improved industrial activity[38] Challenges in the Economy - High-frequency indicators related to infrastructure and real estate remain weak, with new housing sales down 19.4% year-on-year[49] - The container shipping price index dropped significantly, with a 23.6% decrease in September compared to August[54] - The overall economic environment is still affected by external demand uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, posing risks to recovery[8]

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the real estate industry [4] Core Views - The real estate sector has experienced a strong rebound since September 23, 2024, with A-share real estate up 31.2% and Hong Kong real estate up 36.3% [2] - Current valuations for both A-share and Hong Kong real estate are at historically low levels, with A-share PB at 0.78x and Hong Kong PB at 0.49x [2] - Historically, the real estate sector has experienced multiple rounds of outperformance lasting over a year, driven by policy easing and sales recovery [5] - The property management sector has also seen strong performance, with a 43.5% increase since September 23, 2024, and valuations at historically low levels [2] Real Estate Sector Review Market Performance - A-share real estate rose 9.2% on September 30, 2024, ranking 11th among sectors, with a cumulative increase of 31.2% since September 23, 2024, ranking 4th [8] - Hong Kong real estate rose 15.3% on October 4, 2024, ranking 6th among sectors, with a cumulative increase of 36.3% since September 23, 2024, ranking 6th [9] Valuation - As of September 30, 2024, A-share real estate PE TTM is 38.3x, at the 74.8% historical percentile, with a PB of 0.78x, at the 4.0% historical percentile [11] - As of October 4, 2024, Hong Kong real estate PB is 0.49x, at the 11.2% historical percentile [12] Historical Performance - The real estate sector has experienced multiple rounds of outperformance since 2008, driven by policy easing and sales recovery [13] - Notable periods include 2008-2009 (212.1% max gain, 95.0% excess return), 2012-2013 (45.8% max gain, 29.0% excess return), and 2014-2015 (274.6% max gain, 137.3% excess return) [14] Property Management Sector Review Market Performance - Hong Kong property management index rose 0.8% on October 4, 2024, with a cumulative increase of 43.5% since September 23, 2024, and a 15.8% excess return over the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [15] Valuation - As of October 4, 2024, Hong Kong property management PE TTM is 9.8x, at the 1.4% historical percentile [16] Historical Performance - The property management sector had independent performance before 2020, but has since moved in line with the real estate sector [17] - The sector experienced a bull market from 2019-2020, with a maximum gain of 258.08% and a maximum excess return of 255.89% over the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index [17] Investment Recommendations - Focus on leading real estate companies with low valuations, particularly those with strong land acquisition capabilities in first-tier and core second-tier cities [19] - Pay attention to real estate brokerage platforms with core competitiveness, benefiting from policy-driven market activity [19] - Consider real estate M&A opportunities encouraged by policy [19] - Focus on leading property management companies with scale advantages and high operational efficiency, as well as those with innovative value-added services and diversified business expansion [20]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|电力设备 出海和内需共振，高质量发展打开成长 空间 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年10月07日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 电力设备行业在市场端呈现海外出口和国内特高压需求共振实现高增，在技术端呈现投资正 在从主网侧逐渐向配网侧加大的趋势，我们认为电力设备具有投资持续增长、业绩优异、供给 格局良好的特点，看好行业景气度持续提升，设备出海、特高压、配电网智能化方向有望充分 受益，实现持续成长。 |分析师及联系人 贺朝晖 梁丰铄 SAC：S0590521100002 SAC：S0590523040002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 20 行业研究|行业专题研究 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The power equipment industry is experiencing high growth driven by overseas exports and domestic ultra-high voltage (UHV) demand. The investment is shifting from the main grid to the distribution network, indicating a positive outlook for sustained growth and excellent performance in the industry [3][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Surge in Overseas Exports of Power Equipment - In the first eight months of 2024, China's total transformer exports reached $3.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%. Among these, the export value of liquid-immersed transformers was $2.45 billion, up 53.5% year-on-year [9][11]. - The demand for liquid-immersed transformers in Europe and North America has seen significant growth, with exports to Europe increasing by 109% and to North America by 76% [14][15]. - Major companies like Hitachi Energy and Siemens Energy have announced expansion plans exceeding $1 billion, indicating a sustained demand for transformers in the overseas market [16][32]. 2. Continued Investment Boom in Ultra-High Voltage (UHV) - The UHV investment is entering a peak period, with significant projects underway. By August 2024, cumulative investment in the power grid reached 333 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [37][41]. - The report anticipates that the high demand for UHV construction will continue into the 15th Five-Year Plan, with an expected need for 28 new UHV direct current lines [41][42]. 3. Acceleration of Smart Distribution Network Transformation - The transition of the distribution network from a unidirectional to a bidirectional interactive system is underway, driven by the increasing share of renewable energy [46][50]. - The report highlights the urgency of establishing a distributed smart grid to accommodate the rising demand for distributed energy sources and new load types [46][50]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three key areas: overseas exports, UHV, and smart distribution network transformation. Key players in transformer and smart meter exports, as well as core UHV equipment manufacturers, are recommended for investment [6][37].

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" and recommends a "Buy" [1]. Core Insights - The report analyzes five bull markets in the Shanghai Composite Index since 2005, highlighting that significant policy measures often mark the beginning of these bull markets. The five bull markets are characterized by varying durations and percentage increases in the index, with the first bull market seeing a 502% increase over 27 months [2]. - The construction materials and building sectors have generally outperformed the index during these bull markets, with notable excess returns in specific periods, particularly in the first three bull markets [2]. - Recent domestic policy measures are expected to significantly improve economic growth momentum, with monetary policy easing and supportive measures for the real estate sector being key drivers [2]. - The report suggests that the construction materials and building sectors are poised for improvement, with attractive valuations and potential for growth, particularly in segments like renovation materials and cement [2]. Summary by Sections Overview of the Five Bull Markets - The report outlines the five bull markets from 2005 onwards, detailing their duration, percentage increases, and key driving factors such as monetary policy and domestic demand [2][12][24]. Performance of Construction Materials and Building Sectors - In the first bull market (2005-2007), construction materials and buildings outperformed the index by 215% and 97%, respectively. The second bull market (2008-2009) saw excess returns of 94% for construction materials, while buildings lagged slightly [18][24]. - The third bull market (2014-2015) had construction materials and buildings outperforming the index by 22% and 127%, respectively, driven by high demand in the real estate sector [18][24]. - The fourth bull market (2016-2018) showed construction materials outperforming by 22%, while buildings slightly underperformed by 1% [23][24]. - In the fifth bull market (2019-2021), construction materials outperformed the index by 55%, while buildings underperformed by 60%, attributed to high demand in the real estate sector and declining infrastructure investment [23][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for improvement in the construction materials and building sectors, suggesting that investors focus on segments with positive demand trends, particularly renovation materials and leading cement companies [2][24]. - It also highlights the importance of monitoring the recovery in real estate demand and the performance of non-real estate related sectors such as fiberglass and refractory materials [2][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the automotive sector [6][9]. Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is expected to benefit from multiple favorable policies and a recovering economy, leading to improved fundamentals and low valuations [9][16]. - The sector is positioned as a key driver for economic growth and technological competition, with significant contributions to employment and consumption [19][25]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Multiple Benefits and Strong Outlook for the Automotive Sector - Recent policies from the central bank and regulatory bodies are expected to enhance market sentiment and investor confidence, contributing to a rebound in capital markets [9][14]. - The automotive sector is experiencing a dual boost from both domestic demand and exports, with valuations at a five-year low [9][16]. Automotive as a Core Industry for Economic Development and New Productivity - The automotive industry plays a crucial role in driving consumption and economic recovery, accounting for 10.3% of China's total retail sales in 2023, with a retail value of 4.86 trillion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [19][22]. - Employment in the automotive sector has significantly increased, with the workforce growing from 425,000 in 2020 to 1,093,000 in 2024 [22]. Fundamentals: Policy Intensification and Resonance of Domestic Demand and Exports - The implementation of vehicle replacement subsidies has led to a notable increase in vehicle registrations, with August 2024 seeing 193.7 million new registrations, a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [9][37]. - Exports of passenger vehicles reached 3.174 million units from January to August 2024, marking a 29.4% increase year-on-year [9][16]. Investment Recommendations: Beneficiaries in Complete Vehicles and New Components - Recommended companies in the passenger vehicle segment include BYD, Geely, Li Auto, and Xpeng, with a focus on electric vehicle manufacturers [9][37]. - The report highlights a new growth phase for automotive components, suggesting investments in companies like Delian Technology and Fuyao Glass [9][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The high energy consumption of computing clusters will drive AI model training from single data center (DC) training to multi-DC collaborative training, with long-distance asynchronous collaborative training becoming mainstream. Major companies like Meta and Google have already initiated multi-DC distributed training, with Google's Gemini 1 Ultra being a notable example. OpenAI and Microsoft plan to interconnect their large-scale campuses for extensive distributed training across the country. This shift presents challenges for network infrastructure, leading to a significant expected growth in the demand for DCI (Data Center Interconnect) solutions and 400G/800G ZR optical modules [2][6][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Multi-DC Collaborative Training and Network Challenges - Major tech giants are actively investing in multi-DC distributed training, with Google establishing two primary multi-DC regions in Ohio and Iowa/Nebraska, and planning to expand its capacity significantly by 2026 [9][10]. - Distributed training introduces challenges such as high sensitivity to packet loss, which can drastically reduce training efficiency, and the potential for uneven load distribution in networks due to large data flows [11][12]. - Future models are expected to reach over 100T in scale, with bandwidth requirements projected to grow significantly, necessitating the development of long-distance ultra-broad DCI networks [13]. 2. DCI Interconnection Solutions and Market Analysis - The report highlights that 400G ZR coherent optical technology is likely to replace traditional WDM systems in DCI applications due to its simplicity and efficiency [14]. - Predictions indicate that the market for 400G LR optical modules will continue to grow from 2024 to 2028, with significant price points established for 400G ZR and 800G ZR modules [17][18]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests prioritizing overseas DCI investments while maintaining a long-term outlook on domestic DCI developments. Key domestic manufacturers to watch include ZTE, FiberHome, and companies with 400G/800G ZR product lines such as Dekol and Zhongji Xuchuang [21].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The power industry is undergoing a new growth phase, with continuous increases in electricity consumption boosting power demand. The scarcity of base-load power sources such as hydropower, thermal power, and nuclear power is highlighted, with expected utilization hours being secured. Policies promoting green energy and the construction of ultra-high voltage transmission channels are expected to improve renewable energy consumption and electricity prices. Benefiting from electricity market reforms, the revenue mechanism for power operators is expected to shift towards comprehensive revenue, with increasing cash flow and dividend ratios, enhancing long-term investment value [10][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Recovery and Asset Scale Enhancement - From the beginning of 2024 to September 30, the power sector has seen a price increase of 20.64%. The significant increase in power generation capacity has driven revenue growth, with net profit showing a fluctuating growth trend influenced by coal prices. The installed capacity of power sources in China reached 2919.7 GW in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 13.87%, and reached 3127.6 GW by August 2024 [10][19][22]. 2. Strong Power Demand and Expected Increase in Dividend Ratios - National electricity consumption maintained a high growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in 2023 and 7.9% from January to August 2024. The highest load growth in the Southern Power Grid was 18%, and in the East China Power Grid, it was 23%. The return on equity (ROE) for hydropower and nuclear power was 12.4% and 10.8%, respectively, in 2023, with increases of 2.3 and 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [22][24][26]. 3. Marginal Catalysis of Electricity Reform Promotes Growth - The core of the electricity reform policy is to promote marketization among various entities, transitioning from planned electricity prices to competitive bidding. The focus will shift from electricity prices to comprehensive revenue from different power sources. The construction of the spot market is accelerating, with provinces like Guangdong and Shanxi already in operation, reflecting real-time supply and demand relationships [37][40][44]. 4. Investment Recommendations: Focus on Quality Assets with Growth and Dividend Attributes - The continuous increase in electricity consumption and power demand indicates growth potential. The report suggests focusing on quality assets with both growth and dividend attributes, including companies like Huaneng International, Anhui Energy, and Zhejiang Energy in thermal power, and Three Gorges Energy and solar companies in renewable energy. For hydropower and nuclear power, companies like China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power are recommended due to their stable profitability and cash flow [49][50].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The upcoming launch of Tesla's Robotaxi is expected to accelerate the development of the Robotaxi industry, with significant technological advancements and potential for new growth opportunities for Tesla [10][11] - The Robotaxi is anticipated to become a mainstream transportation option, potentially generating trillions of dollars in value and enhancing Tesla's position in the autonomous driving sector [22][23] Summary by Sections 1. Tesla Robotaxi Launch and Its Impact - Tesla is set to officially launch the Robotaxi on October 10, 2024, featuring advanced technologies such as FSD V13 and wireless charging [10][15] - The FSD V13 is expected to significantly enhance the average takeover mileage by up to six times, facilitating the practical implementation of Robotaxi [20] - The launch of Robotaxi is viewed as a critical component of Tesla's growth strategy, with the potential to improve FSD user payment rates and overall business performance [23] 2. Current Commercialization Progress of Robotaxi - The commercialization of Robotaxi is progressing steadily, with technological advancements and cost optimizations driving its adoption [11][25] - By 2026, the cost per kilometer for Robotaxi is projected to be comparable to traditional taxi services, paving the way for widespread deployment [25] - In China, companies like Baidu's Apollo and others are leading the charge in Robotaxi commercialization, with significant operational milestones achieved [37] 3. Investment Opportunities in the Robotaxi Industry Chain - The Robotaxi industry encompasses a complete value chain, including upstream technology, midstream manufacturing, and downstream operations [40][41] - Key investment opportunities are identified in core component suppliers, vehicle manufacturers, and companies involved in Robotaxi operations [45][46] - The integration of vehicle-road-cloud systems is expected to enhance the operational efficiency and safety of Robotaxi services, creating further investment potential [44][47]