证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|非银金融 保险新"国十条"有望推动行业高质量 发展 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月13日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 国务院发布《关于加强监管防范风险推动保险业高质量发展的若干意见》（以下简称为保险新 "国十条"），对我国保险行业未来 5-10 年左右的发展进行系统部署。这是继 2006 年、2014 年之后，国家层面又一次对保险行业发展作出的全面部署，释放了进一步推动我国保险行业 高质量发展的鲜明信号。 |分析师及联系人 刘雨辰 朱丽芳 SAC：S0590522100001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证券研究报告 宏观经济|宏观点评 总统辩论中哈里斯的表现更好 ——美国大选观察（三） 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月13日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 辩论前双方民调接近，全国民调中和关键的摇摆州里哈里斯虽然领先，但不显著。哈里斯的策 略可能是扮演弥合分歧，争取中间选民的角色，开场主动上前去和特朗普握手。哈里斯是第一 次参加总统辩论，在辩论中逻辑表达比较清楚，吐词清晰，和拜登上次的表现形成鲜明对比， 可能对她的选举是个加分项。CNN 的民调数据显示，第二次总统辩论后认为哈里斯赢得了辩论 的人占比 63%。特朗普的主要失分可能在于回避问题。特朗普仍然不承认 2020 年败选。 |分析师及联系人 樊磊 王博群 SAC：S0590521120002 SAC：S0590524010002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 8 宏观经济|宏观点评 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月13日 宏观点评 总统辩论中哈里斯的表现更好 ——美国大选观察（三） 点评摘要 相关报告 1、《出口拐点或晚于此前的预估——对 8 月 外贸数据的思考与未来展望》2024.09.11 2 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|食品饮料 需求疲弱，关注盈利弹性 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月13日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024Q2 需求依旧疲软，收入环比转弱；同时受益于成本端红利，利润表现持续优于收入：2024H1 大众品重点企业实现收入 1635.21 亿元，同比-2.92%，归母净利润为 175.43 亿元，同比 +16.22%；单 2024Q2 大众品重点公司实现收入 753 亿元，同比-8.63%，归母净利润 55.03 亿 元，同比-3.76%。考虑到终端需求的不确定性，企业较难把握收入端变化，部分企业对利润的 诉求提升，净利润目标有抬升态势；同时主要大众品公司重视股东回报，有望通过回购、提升 分红比例等动作进一步提升企业股息率。 |分析师及联系人 刘景瑜 邓洁 SAC：S0590524030005 SAC：S0590524040002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 31 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月13日 食品饮料 需求疲弱，关注盈利弹性 相对大盘走势 -40% -27% -13% 0% ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|电力设备 电新行业 2024H1 财报总结： 业绩阶段性承压，景气度有望好转 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月13日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024H1，电新行业整体归母净利润同比下降 56.10%，在所有 30 个行业中位于第 27 位。根据 子行业归母净利润分析，核电（yoy-4.3%）、电网设备（yoy-18.0%）、储能（yoy-18.7%）、风 电（yoy-21.2%）、锂电（yoy-28.7%）、光伏（yoy-104.1%）均出现同比下滑。我们认为部分原 因来自于上游原材料价格的大幅波动对中游企业库存和下游需求的多重影响。行业内各公司 盈利能力持续分化，各板块格局占优的龙头企业表现出较强 alpha 属性。 |分析师及联系人 贺朝晖 梁丰铄 陈子锐 SAC：S0590521100002 SAC：S0590523040002 SAC：S0590524080006 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 51 重点推荐标的 数据来源：公司公告，iFinD，国联证券研究所预测，股价取 2024 年 09 月 11 日收盘价 ...

Industries Resilient Across Kondratiev Cycles - Social basic needs, consumer goods, and capital goods leaders are more likely to survive Kondratiev cycles, with energy, utilities, and food & beverage sectors showing long-term stability[2] - In the US, Japan, and Germany, social basic needs sectors account for 30%, 30%, and 29% respectively of companies founded before 1920, while consumer goods sectors account for 25%, 25%, and 29%[6] - Capital goods sectors in the US, Japan, and Germany account for 18%, 28%, and 14% respectively of companies founded before 1920[6] Key Factors for Longevity - Demand rigidity, technological accumulation, and industry monopolies are the fundamental reasons for industries to survive Kondratiev cycles[2] - Energy and food & beverage sectors exhibit demand rigidity, while utilities combine demand rigidity with industry monopolies[2] - Healthcare combines demand rigidity with technological accumulation, and capital goods sectors rely on technological barriers and industry monopolies[2] Market Performance of Kondratiev Cycle Survivors - Companies that survive Kondratiev cycles show significant excess returns, with the US and UK excelling in IT and consumer discretionary sectors, Japan in communication services, and Germany in consumer sectors[2] - The Kondratiev cycle portfolio in the US shows an annualized return of 12% with a 7% excess return, while Japan's portfolio shows an 8% annualized return with a 5% excess return[47] - The UK's Kondratiev cycle portfolio has a 9% annualized return with a 7% excess return, while Germany's portfolio shows a 4% annualized return with a 1% excess return[48] Sector Stability and Changes - In the US, real estate, diversified financials, technology (software & services, semiconductors), and pharmaceuticals have seen significant increases in market share since 1990, while capital goods and raw materials have declined the most[20] - In Japan, the financial sector has grown since 2000, while the industrial sector has declined significantly[23] - In the UK, the financial sector has further expanded, while the industrial and telecom services sectors have declined[27] - In Germany, capital goods, retail, and healthcare have grown, while raw materials and transportation have declined[29]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业深度研究|有色金属 锂资源系列报告一：2024Q2 澳洲锂矿 产量回升，后续新矿山有望贡献增量 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月12日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 本报告详细分析澳洲各大矿山 2024Q2 生产经营情况，结合当前碳酸锂供需形势，及各大公司 最新生产经营指引，对新一轮锂资源投资作出投资建议。上一轮锂周期中，锂资源股票先于锂 价见底。我们认为当前锂价已经跌破部分高成本供应商现金成本，即使锂价尚未触底，整体向 下空间也十分有限。低价格背景下，会逐步淘汰高成本产能。在上游产能出清以后，锂价有望 获得反弹。在新一轮周期中，自身资源有保障，且产量逐年有增量的标的更具弹性。 |分析师及联系人 王琪 周志璐 SAC：S0590524080003 SAC：S0590524060001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 28 行业研究|行业深度研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月12日 有色金属 锂资源系列报告一：2024Q2 澳洲锂矿产量回 升，后续新矿山有望贡献增量 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大 ...

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The focus of policies in the first half of 2024 will shift towards enhancing the intelligence of distribution networks and the collaborative capabilities of source-network-load-storage systems. The State Grid's total investment in the power grid for 2024 is expected to exceed 600 billion yuan, an increase of 71.1 billion yuan compared to 2023, primarily directed towards UHV AC/DC project construction and digital upgrades of the power grid [9][10]. - The transformation of distribution networks towards intelligence is driven by the insufficient carrying capacity due to the large-scale integration of distributed renewable energy and electric vehicles. Intelligent distribution networks can enhance supply reliability and operational efficiency through real-time monitoring and control [9][17]. - The core of distribution network upgrades is to improve the integration capacity of distributed energy sources. As of June 2024, the installed capacity of wind and solar energy in China reached 467 GW and 714 GW, respectively, accounting for 15.2% and 23.2% of the total installed capacity [9][35]. - Both policy and investment are increasingly leaning towards the intelligence of distribution networks, with a notable shift in 2024 towards establishing a new dispatching and operational mechanism for distribution networks [9][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Definition and Importance of Intelligent Distribution Networks - Intelligent distribution networks are defined as the optimization and control of power systems through digital technologies, enabling real-time monitoring and management across generation, transmission, and distribution [14][16]. - The transition from a "passive + unidirectional" to an "active + bidirectional" distribution network is essential to accommodate the increasing share of distributed energy sources [17][22]. 2. Policy Guidance and Urgency of Demand - The Chinese government has been actively promoting the construction and transformation of distribution networks since 2015, focusing on meeting basic electricity needs, energy conservation, and intelligent interconnectivity [25][27]. - The rapid increase in distributed energy sources necessitates urgent upgrades to the distribution network to ensure reliable integration and consumption [35][48]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in intelligent equipment technology, such as Guodian NARI, Haixing Electric, and Sungrow Power Supply, which are expected to benefit from the accelerated investment in intelligent distribution networks [9][10].

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业深度研究|电力设备 配电网系列报告一：如何看当前智能电 网发展阶段？ 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月12日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年上半年，政策开始聚焦提高配网智能化以及源网荷储协同能力。根据国网公告，2024 年国网全年电网投资将超过 6000 亿元，较 2023 年新增 711 亿元，新增投资主要用于特高压 交直流工程建设、电网数字化智能化升级等。我们认为未来智能化、柔性化或将成为配网侧的 发展重点。本篇对已发布的电网智能化政策和电网智能化关键环节做了详尽梳理，以便于研 判未来电网智能化会在哪些环节重点发力。 |分析师及联系人 贺朝晖 SAC：S0590521100002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 38 行业研究|行业深度研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月12日 电力设备 配电网系列报告一：如何看当前智能电网发 展阶段？ 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -40% -27% -13% 0% 2023/9 2024/1 2024/5 2024/9 电力设备 沪深3 ...

Core Viewpoints - The Japanese stock market's "passive" rise is primarily driven by yen depreciation attracting foreign capital inflows [1] - Secondary factors include the "Japan Premium" policy encouraging companies to increase buybacks and dividends, and weak recovery in China leading to capital inflows into Japan [1] - The outlook suggests a volatile market with domestic demand-driven consumer sectors performing well [1] Profit and Valuation Analysis - The Japanese stock market experienced a "passive" Davis Double in Q2 2023, with both earnings and valuation contributing to index growth [5] - Long-term analysis shows earnings have been the primary driver of Japan's bull market, with valuation centers also rising [6] - Corporate profits and domestic demand have improved due to easing imported inflation [7] Corporate Sector Analysis - Yen depreciation and falling import prices benefit corporate profits, especially for companies with higher overseas revenue (average over 40%) [8][9] - Japanese corporate revenue growth has been positively correlated with yen depreciation from 2017 to 2022 [9] - Corporate confidence is recovering, with increased capital expenditure plans [14][15] Consumer Sector Analysis - Wage growth has exceeded expectations, supporting domestic demand recovery [16] - Despite nominal wage increases, real wages remain constrained by high inflation [16] - Personal consumption expenditure has become the main driver of Japan's real GDP [22] Valuation Drivers - Yen depreciation is the main factor behind valuation increases, with a long-term negative correlation between yen exchange rates and stock market valuations [23] - Foreign investors hold over 30% of Japanese market value, playing a significant role in the market [23] - BPS growth expectations have increased, driving price-to-book ratio improvements [25] Policy Factors - The "Japan Premium" policy has prompted companies to increase buybacks and dividend payouts to improve capital return rates [29][31] - Tokyo Stock Exchange's policies aim to enhance corporate capital efficiency and valuation [29] Global Capital Flows - Global active funds show an inverse relationship in their allocations between China and Japan [32] - As yen depreciates, global funds have increased their allocation to Japanese stocks [23]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业点评研究|汽车 中汽协 8 月销量点评： 8 月销量环比提升，补贴政策效果显著 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2024年09月11日 。 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2024 年 9 月 10 日，中汽协发布 8 月汽车行业销量数据，8 月乘用车销量 218.1 万辆，同比下 滑 4.0%，环比提升 9.4%。截至 8 月 31 日，以旧换新补贴申请量已突破 80 万份，自 7 月底补 贴金额加码后平均单日新增超 1 万份。除以旧换新补贴外，各地方政府陆续出台置换政策， 根据购车价格、动力类型等因素给予相应补贴，并且多地置换政策无报废国三及以下排放车 辆的前置条件，适用群体更广泛，置换政策有望进一步助推终端需求提升。 |分析师及联系人 高登 陈斯竹 唐嘉俊 SAC：S0590523110004 SAC：S0590523100009 SAC：S0590524080004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 4 行业研究|行业点评研究 glzqdatemark2 2024年09月11日 汽车 中汽协 8 月销量点评： 8 月销量环比提升，补贴政策效果显著 投 ...