Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is optimistic [1] Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached a new high in March, with Xiaomi's first car launch attracting attention [6][35] - The lithium market shows signs of recovery with production expected to improve, while cobalt prices are supported by strong holding sentiment [5][11] - The demand for new energy vehicles is anticipated to gradually recover in Q2 2024, driven by a new round of price competition [6][25] Summary by Sections 01 New Energy Industry Trend Commentary - The lithium supply is recovering as weather improves, while demand remains cautious due to high prices [5] - The new energy vehicle market saw significant growth in March, primarily due to a price war that boosted penetration rates [6] 02 Industry Dynamics & Data Tracking - **Energy Metals**: Lithium prices are supported by recent auction prices from Australian mines, while cobalt prices are stable due to strong holding sentiment [5][11] - **Battery and Materials**: The retail sales of new energy vehicles in March are expected to reach approximately 750,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 37.1% [5][25] - **New Energy Vehicles**: The market share of new energy vehicles reached 30.1% in February, with significant year-on-year declines in production and sales [25][30] - **Photovoltaic/Wind Power**: The domestic installation and export data for photovoltaic components showed positive trends, indicating a potential industry bottom [7] - **Energy Storage/Grid**: The domestic energy storage installation is expected to exceed expectations in 2024, with various technologies gaining traction [8] - **Electric Power**: The 2024 energy work guidance suggests a target of 250 GW of new power generation capacity, focusing on renewable energy integration [9] Appendix - **Industry Index Performance**: The performance of various industry indices shows fluctuations, with energy metals experiencing a decline [73][75] - **Market Review**: The energy metals and battery sectors have seen varied performance, with some segments under pressure while others show resilience [75][79]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The report discusses the potential for lithium prices to be overly pessimistic, suggesting that the bottom for lithium prices may not be as low as previously thought [1][12] - It highlights that the cost support for lithium carbonate has shifted downwards, with a focus on the cost structures of various mining companies [6][9] - The report emphasizes the long-term trend of rising mining costs due to declining ore grades and the transition from open-pit to underground mining [9][10] Summary by Sections Section 1: Lithium Price Outlook - The report indicates that the cost support for lithium carbonate has historically been around 80,000 RMB, but this is expected to decrease in Q4 2023 [6] - Australian mining companies are projected to see a continued decline in cash costs, with specific companies showing significant reductions in AISC (All-In Sustaining Cost) from Q3 to Q4 2023 [7][8] Section 2: Market Dynamics - Concerns about lithium prices dropping too low stem from historical patterns observed in the 2019-2020 cycle, where prices fell significantly while production continued [12][33] - The report categorizes Australian mining companies into two groups based on their operational strategies during downturns, affecting their production decisions [12][33] Section 3: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The report notes that supply-demand mismatches are inherent in the industry, driven by different release times of production capacities [40] - It points out that global lithium mining companies have begun to reduce capital expenditures in response to falling lithium prices, indicating a shift in investment strategies [42][44] Section 4: Future Investment Trends - The report predicts that lithium mining companies will significantly slow down their investment pace over the next two years due to the rapid decline in lithium prices [44][48] - It also highlights that the quality of capital expenditures in overseas companies may not be high, with some companies relying heavily on outsourcing for production increases [48][50]

Investment Rating - The report rates the lithium mining industry as "Positive" [3] Core Insights - The report summarizes insights from quarterly earnings calls of 13 overseas lithium companies, focusing on their views regarding global prices, supply, demand, and inventory [4] - Companies agree that current prices are at a low point, but there are differing opinions on when a rebound may occur [4] - There is a strong consensus among companies that demand remains robust, while inventory is primarily concentrated in downstream battery sectors [4] Price Analysis - SQM (17% market share) believes that prices will stabilize in the short term and be optimistic in the second half of the year [6] - ALB (16% market share) states that current prices are below marginal cash costs, which could lead to structural shortages in the future [7] - ALTM (4.3% market share) asserts that prices must rise to meet future demand, as current prices are not sustainable [8] Supply Dynamics - SQM indicates that new supply may be delayed due to longer-than-expected commissioning times and that weaker competitors may be affected by current prices [10] - ALB mentions that current lithium prices do not incentivize new greenfield projects, leading to production cuts and project delays [10] - Pilbara (8% market share) is prepared to endure lower prices to rationalize the market [10] Demand Forecast - SQM forecasts a 20% growth in global lithium demand in 2024, with a projected increase of 600,000 tons LCE by 2033 [12] - ALB anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15-20% from 2024 to 2030, with a demand of 1.3 million tons LCE in 2024 [12] - Sayona (1.6% market share) expects a significant increase in battery metal demand to drive the clean energy transition [12] Inventory Insights - ALB reports a gradual decline in industry inventory since early 2023, with battery manufacturers holding higher inventory levels [14] - ALTM notes that extended downtime during the Lunar New Year will help reduce battery-level inventory [14] Additional Observations - The report highlights that in a market with over 20% annual demand growth, total costs are more critical than cash costs [15] - The lithium carbonate market is described as immature, with a need for products not priced by the Chinese market [16] - Companies express concerns about the complexity of supply chains and the need for more secondary or tertiary battery manufacturers to exit the market [21]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 小米 SU7 上市点评：小米汽车破圈， [ 汽Tab 车le_I nvest] 评级： 看好 突围 20 万元纯电市场 日期： 2024.04.01 事件描述 [分Ta析bl师e_ A张ut鹏ho r] 登记编码：S0950523070001 2023年3月28日晚，小米汽车首款车型SU7正式上市，共三款配置，定价 ： 18373169614 21.59万元、24.59万元、29.99万元；上市 27分钟订单突破 50000 台，部 ： zhangpeng1@wkzq.com.cn 分用户提前手动锁单，订单有效性预期稳定。 联系人 顾思捷 事件点评 ： 18862755264 ： gusj@wkzq.com.cn 小米 SU7定位中大型纯电轿车，定价略超预期，车型配置具备亮点。小米SU7 轴距3000mm，比Model 3空间大，与极氪001、小鹏P7、智界S7 相当， 联系人 张娜威 比燃油车宝马3系、奔驰 C级略大，21.59万元的起步价低于其他中大型车。 ： 18551983137 车型亮点方面：（1）外观符合大多数消费者审美。SU7提供9种车身颜色 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] Figur e和英伟达 GTC的背后有什么技 [ 机Tab 械le_I 设nve 备st] 评级： 看好 术新动向？ 日期： 2024.03.22 事件描述 [分Ta析bl师e_ A祁ut岩ho r] 登记编码：S0950523090001 2024年3月1日，Figure官宣与OpenAI、微软达成合作。2024年 3月 13 ： 021-61102527 日，Figure发布视频展示了与OpenAI合作后的进展。 ： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 2024年 3月 19日，英伟达举行 GTC2024。本次 GTC 上，NVIDIA 发布了 [行Ta业bl表e_现Pic Quote] 2024/3/21 自己的人形机器人方案。 4% -3% 事件点评 -9% -16% Figure 是谁？Figure 2022 年成立，希望通过通用的人形机器人创造一个更 -22% 好的未来。Figure的成员来自波士顿动力、特斯拉、谷歌 DeepMind等公司。 -29% 2023/3 2023/6 2023/9 2023/12 Figure 这次视频的亮点是什 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业点评 [Table_Main] 硬质合 金及刀具行业点评：中短期钨精 [ 有Tab 色le_I 金nve 属st] 评级： 看好 矿供应紧张，叠加下游旺盛需求，硬质 日期： 2024.03.22 合金企业提价氛围渐浓 [分Ta析bl师e_ A王ut小ho芃r] 登记编码：S0950523050002 事件描述 ： 13401186193 ： wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 九江金鹭3月14日发布调价函，将自2024年 3月 20 日起对部分硬质合金 分析师 祁岩 类产品的销售价格进行适当调整。与此同时，天工硬质合金于3月 15 日发布 登记编码：S0950523090001 调价函，将自2024年 3月 25日起对公司硬质合金产品进行整体上调。 ： 13661240951 事件点评 ： qiyan1@wkzq.com.cn 钨矿价格走高带动仲钨酸铵和碳化钨粉价格抬升，四因素共振导致中短期钨 联系人 何能锋 矿供应紧张。根据 SMM 数据显示，2024年 3月19日黑钨精矿（≥65%） ： 021-61102510 均价125750元/吨，较2023年年底每吨涨价 325 ...

The research analyst is primarily responsible for the content of this report, in w hole or in part. The analyst has the Securities Investment Advisory Certification granted by the Securities Association of China. Besides, the analyst independently and objectively issues this report holding a diligent attitude. We hereby declare that (1) all the data used herein is gathered from legitimate sources; (2) the research is based on analyst's professional understanding, and accurately reflects his/her views; (3) t ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 [Table_Main] 电子行 业半月报：英伟达 GTC 2024, 全新 [ 电Tab 子le_I nvest] 评级： 看好 Blackwell 平台震撼亮相 日期： 2024.03.20 报告要点 [分Ta析bl师e_ A王ut少ho南r] 登记编码：S0950521040001 3月上板块走势回顾：2024年 3月上（3月 1日-3月 15日），大盘指数中， ： 0755-23375522 上证综指上涨1.31%，深证成指上涨3.03%，创业板指上涨4.26%，沪深300 ： wangshaonan@wkzq.com.cn 上涨1.53%。截至 2024年 3月 15日，申万电子指数为3443.91，较3月1 联系人 金凯笛 日上涨3.94%，行业涨跌幅在所有一级行业中排序9/31。申万电子各子行业 ： 021-61102509 中，元件板块上涨 8.10%，其他电子板块上涨 7.97%，消费电子板块上涨 ： jinkaidi@wkzq.com.cn 7.73%，光学光电子板块上涨 4.79%，半导体板块上涨 1.18%，电子化学品 板块上涨 0.83%。2024年 3月 ...

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