2025Q2 经营承压 机器人+Robotaxi 进展顺利 2025 年 07 月 27 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：崔琰 分析师：乔木 执业证号：S0100523110002 执业证号：S0100524100002 邮箱：cuiyan@mszq.com 邮箱：qiaomu@mszq.com ➢ 事件: 特斯拉公布 2025Q2 财报： 销量：2025Q2 公司全球交付 38.4 万辆，同比-13.5%，环比+14.1%；其中 Model 3/Y 合计交付 37.4 万辆，同比-11.5%，环比+15.4%。 收入：2025Q2 公司营业总收入为 225.0 亿美元，同比/环比分别为- 11.8%/+16.3%，其中汽车业务收入为 166.6 亿美元，同比/环比分别为- 16.2%/+19.3%。 净利：2025Q2 公司归母净利润为 11.7 亿美元，non-GAAP 净利润为 13.9 亿美元，同比/环比分别为-23.1%/+49.1%。 ➢ 营收同比下滑 盈利环比回升 营收端： 2025Q2 公 司 总 收 入 225.0 亿 美 元 ， 同 比 / 环 比 分 别 为 - 11.8%/+ ...

➢ 旺季已至，基建发力，需求有望超预期提升。此前由于用电需求疲弱，煤价 出现大幅下滑，5 月下旬以来火电发电量同比增速已转正并持续提升，7 月上旬 全国发电量同比增速达 7.89%，火电增速达 4.83%，一方面实体用电需求边际好 转，另一方面伴随气温升高，全国电力负荷屡创历史新高，二十五省电厂日耗加 速攀升。同时非电化工需求同比增速从 5 月初的 10%攀升至当前近 20%，环比 仍保持小幅上行。雅下工程开工释放基建发力信号，我们预期后续或有望持续加 大基建投入，从而利好水泥、钢铁、化工行业，提振动力煤及焦煤需求。我们预 计在旺季和政策利好的共同驱动下，需求有望超预期提升，8 月中旬价格高点有 望突破 750 元/吨，下半年价格中枢有望维持 700 元/吨左右。板块方面，当前 煤价已进入加速上行通道，业绩稳健、高现货比例标的弹性更为充足。 ➢ 投资建议：标的方面，我们推荐以下投资主线：1）业绩稳健、成长型标的， 建议关注晋控煤业、华阳股份。2）高现货比例弹性标的，建议关注潞安环能。 3）产量恢复性增长，建议关注山煤国际。4）行业龙头业绩稳健，建议关注陕西 煤业、中国神华、中煤能源。5）受益核电增长，强α稀缺 ...

2025 年 6 月工业企业利润点评 ➢ 然而全球供应链重构抑制部分工业品需求，易压低上游资源行业利润增速； ➢ 下游消费行业则是由于品牌溢价不足（国产消费品难以通过提价消化关税成 本，如出口型纺织企业）、渠道重构沉没成本（若为规避关税而转移生产基地或重 建供应链，短期推高运营费用）、消费偏好刚性制约（居民可支配收入承压时，非 必需消费首当其冲，如娱乐用品、纺织服装），利润提速空间同样受限。 ➢ 事件：7 月 27 日，据国家统计局，1—6 月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现 利润总额 34365.0 亿元，同比下降 1.8%。 ➢ 6 月工业企业利润"成绩单"之所以重要，不仅在于它对于二季度 A 股盈利 具有一定前瞻性，还在于它进一步展现了关税风波下不同行业的韧性。结合历史 趋势来看，通常月频的工业企业利润增速与季频的 A 股非金融企业利润增长之间 走势相近。4 月以来的关税风波压低了工业企业利润的增速，或指向二季度 A 股 盈利相较于一季度将边际放缓。然而在这背后，也不乏一些行业表现亮眼。 ➢ 关税风波之下，中游行业利润整体更具韧性。若从累计同比的视角来看，1- 6 月上、中、下游增速依次为-15.3%、7. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the electric power equipment and new energy sectors, including CATL, Keda, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [5]. Core Insights - The overall electricity consumption in June 2025 reached 867 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, with significant contributions from various sectors [4][49]. - The domestic photovoltaic (PV) sector saw a substantial increase in new installations, surpassing 200 GW in the first half of 2025, although there was a notable decline in monthly installations in June [3][31]. - The inverter export market showed improvement, with June exports amounting to 6.591 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.15% and a month-on-month increase of 10.32% [3][26]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - NIO's new electric SUV, the L90, has begun pre-sales, featuring advanced design and technology, with a starting price of 279,900 yuan [2][9]. - The vehicle offers two powertrain options, with a maximum power output of 440 kW and a range of up to 605 km [11][13]. Photovoltaics - The inverter export market showed a positive trend, with June exports reaching 6.591 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.15% and a month-on-month increase of 10.32% [3][26]. - In the first half of 2025, domestic PV installations reached 212.21 GW, a year-on-year increase of 107.07%, although June saw a significant drop in new installations [31][31]. Electric Power Equipment and Industrial Control - In June 2025, total electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, driven by increases in all sectors, particularly residential electricity consumption, which grew by 10.8% [4][49]. - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to June 2025 reached 48,418 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [4][49]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Valuations - Key companies such as CATL, Keda, and others are projected to have strong earnings growth, with recommended buy ratings based on their performance metrics [5].

军工行业 2025 年二季度公募基金持仓分析 ➢ 持仓分析 主动型基金连续 10 个季度减配军工后，2Q25 首度增配。2Q25：1）主动 型基金超配/低配民生军工幅度为-0.003ppt，环比增加 0.20ppt，继连续 10 个 季度环比减少后首度增加，变化幅度行业排名 13/30。2）军工主题基金规模环 比增加 24.58%至 398 亿元，恢复至 4Q23 时以上的水平。具体看，军工主题基 金重仓 84 支股票，代表公司有菲利华（8 家）、中航沈飞（7 家）、航天电器/中 航高科/国睿科技（5 家）。前十支重仓股票市值合计占主题基金资产净值比例平 均为 56.24%，占比环比减少 0.29ppt。3）主动型基金持仓前十五大股票市值占 其持仓总市值 66.85%，环比减少 2.10ppt，集中度继续降低。 主机厂市值占比提升；主动型基金加仓兵器和航空等板块。2Q25，主动型 基金持仓市值占比：1）企业属性角度：国企（中央+地方）市值占比超过 70%， 保持行业内的主导地位，也是机构配置的重点方向。2）产业链环节角度：上游 占比最高，达到 38%；总装次之，为 37%，总装占比显著提升（1Q25 占比 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the sector [6]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for industrial metals driven by domestic policies aimed at reducing competition and boosting infrastructure investment, alongside U.S. fiscal expansion and ongoing interest rate cuts [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are expected to see price increases due to supply disruptions and strong demand from the new energy sector [3]. - Precious metals are favored due to heightened demand for gold as a safe haven amid global trade tensions and ongoing central bank purchases [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that industrial metal prices are rising due to domestic "anti-involution" policies and infrastructure investment, with copper prices experiencing short-term fluctuations due to trade changes [2]. - Key statistics include a weekly increase in aluminum prices by 1.22% and copper prices by 1.07%, while zinc prices rose by 2.65% [11]. - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rebounding significantly due to supply concerns from regions like Jiangxi and Qinghai, with expectations for continued price increases [3]. - Cobalt prices are also anticipated to rise due to raw material shortages and increased demand as the market recovers from a low trading volume [3]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Zangge Mining [3]. Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for gold driven by global trade uncertainties and central bank purchases, predicting a long-term upward trend in gold prices [4]. - Gold prices have shown a weekly increase of 0.68%, while silver prices rose by 2.13% [11]. - Recommended companies include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank sector, particularly in insurance and securities, suggesting a "Recommended" rating for key companies in these sectors [3][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights a reduction in the preset interest rates for life insurance products, with ordinary life insurance at 2.0%, participating insurance at 1.75%, and universal insurance at 1.0%. This adjustment is expected to optimize the liability structure of insurance companies and promote a shift towards non-guaranteed income products [1][3]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on stabilizing the capital market and enhancing market vitality through reforms, which is anticipated to boost investor confidence and market performance [2][3]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of recent monetary policies, including interest rate cuts, which are expected to enhance market sentiment and support the valuation recovery of quality listed companies [3][41]. Summary by Sections Market Review - Major indices showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.67% and the Shenzhen Component Index up by 2.33% during the week [7]. - The non-bank financial sector saw a mixed performance, with the securities index rising by 4.82% [7][8]. Securities Sector - The report notes that the total trading volume in the A-share market reached 10.66 trillion yuan, with a daily average trading volume of 1.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a 14.20% increase week-on-week [16]. - The IPO underwriting scale for the year reached 560.64 billion yuan, while refinancing underwriting amounted to 8050.88 billion yuan [16][18]. Insurance Sector - The report indicates that the life insurance premium growth rate for major companies like China Life and Ping An Life has shown positive trends, with significant increases in premium income [24][25]. - The adjustment of preset interest rates is expected to lower the liability costs for insurance companies, enhancing their financial stability [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key insurance companies such as China Pacific Insurance, Sunshine Insurance, and Ping An Insurance, as well as leading securities firms like CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities [41][42]. - It also highlights potential benefits for non-bank institutions from the implementation of stablecoin regulations and cross-border payment innovations [3][41].

西部矿业（601168.SH）2025 年中报点评 主要矿产品产量稳中有升，业绩稳健增长 2025 年 07 月 27 日 ➢ 事件：公司发布 2025 年中报，2025 年 H1 公司营收 316.19 亿元，同比 +26.59%，归母净利 18.69 亿元，同比+15.35%；扣非归母净利 18.34 亿元， 同比+9.42%。其中，2025Q2 公司营收 150.78 亿元，同比+7.67%，环比-8.85%； 季度归母净利 10.62 亿元，同比+20.13%，环比+31.41%；季度扣非归母净利 10.53 亿元，同比+9.61%，环比+34.78%。 ➢ 主要矿产品产量稳中有升，驱动公司业绩增长。①矿山铜：2025H1 矿产铜 产量 9.18 万吨，同比增加 7.65%，计划完成率 114%。其中玉龙铜矿产量 8.34 万吨，获各琦铜矿产量 0.69 万吨。单季度来看，公司 Q2 铜产量 4.77 万吨，环 比增长 8.1%。上半年玉龙铜矿回收率提升明显，一车间铜、钼回收率分别提升 4.08、5.36 个百分点，二车间铜、钼回收率提升 3.9、15.99 个百分点。②其他 矿山板块：2025H1 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|社会服务 2025Q2 商社板块基金持仓分析：新消 费热度高，化妆品、医美持仓增加 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年07月27日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2025Q2 社会服务、商贸零售、美容护理基金重仓持股比例分别环比-0.15pct、-0.76pct、 +0.08pct 至 1.11%、1.87%、0.54%（若剔除阿里巴巴和美团，社会服务、商贸零售基金重仓持 股比例分别环比-0.075pct、+0.001pct 至 0.61%、0.61%）。行业间对比来看，二季度社会服 务、商贸零售、美容护理基金配置比例排名分别为第 21、17、25。 |分析师及联系人 邓文慧 郭家玮 SAC：S0590522060001 SAC：S0590525030001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 14 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年07月27日 社会服务 2025Q2 商社板块基金持仓分析：新消费热度 高，化妆品、医美持仓增加 投资建议： 强于大市（维持） 上次建议： 强于大市 相对大盘走势 -30% -10% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [3]. Core Insights - The demand for special steel is expected to rise due to the commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station project, with an estimated special steel demand of approximately 4-6 million tons, significantly exceeding similar hydropower projects [3][7]. - Steel prices have increased, with notable weekly price rises across various steel products, indicating a strengthening market [1][10]. - The profitability of steel manufacturers is recovering, with significant increases in gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel [1][2]. Price Trends - As of July 25, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,450 CNY/ton, up 180 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel prices also saw increases of 170 CNY/ton [1][10]. - The report highlights a 5.5% weekly increase in rebar prices and a 4.6% increase in cold-rolled prices, reflecting a positive price trend in the steel market [11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel products decreased to 8.67 million tons, with a slight weekly decline of 1.22 million tons, while total inventory also saw a decrease [2]. - Rebar production increased by 2.9 million tons to 2.1196 million tons, indicating a positive trend in production for this specific category [2]. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates that the gross profit margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel have increased by 46 CNY/ton, 45 CNY/ton, and 79 CNY/ton respectively, showcasing a recovery in profitability for steel manufacturers [1][2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the general steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector, among others [3].