Group 1: Consumption Patterns in Asia - The report identifies four consumption paradigms in Asia based on GDP per capita and consumption rates: "Enjoyable Consumption," "Cautious Consumption," "Daring Consumption," and "Stable Consumption" [1][11]. - "Enjoyable Consumption" economies like Hong Kong and Japan have high GDP per capita and consumption rates, with Hong Kong relying on "consumption capacity" and Japan on "consumption willingness" [2][14]. - "Cautious Consumption" regions such as Singapore and South Korea exhibit high GDP but low consumption rates, driven by a tendency to accumulate wealth rather than spend [3][32]. Group 2: Economic Insights and Recommendations - "Daring Consumption" economies like Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam show strong consumer tendencies despite lower GDP per capita, indicating that internal demand is a significant growth driver [3][52]. - "Stable Consumption" regions, including mainland China, have room for improvement in consumption rates, suggesting that targeted measures could stimulate consumer spending [3][11]. - The report recommends learning from "Enjoyable Consumption" models like Japan to develop service consumption systems and from "Daring Consumption" models to establish inclusive income distribution mechanisms [3][11]. Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The report highlights risks such as differences in data collection methods, regional economic structures, and the limitations of the sample used for analysis [3][59]. - External factors like global economic fluctuations and geopolitical changes could impact consumer behavior and trends in these economies [3][59].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the expansion of domestic demand policies and improvements in supply-demand relationships across various industries have led to a stable growth trend in prices, with CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year in October 2025, and core CPI increasing by 1.2% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1][10][11] - Various industries are experiencing price recovery, particularly in coal, photovoltaic, cement, computers, lithium-ion batteries, and integrated circuits, attributed to the recent "anti-involution" policies and ongoing improvements in supply-demand dynamics [1][11][12] - The report anticipates that if the current trends continue into 2026, there could be significant improvements in both CPI and PPI, indicating a positive outlook for inflation and industrial prices [1][11][12] Group 2 - Local governments are actively working to revitalize idle and inefficient state-owned assets, with provinces like Hunan, Hubei, and Anhui implementing reforms to enhance asset management and operational efficiency [2][16][18] - The report notes that since September 2023, the national government has been assisting local governments in resolving hidden debts, which has effectively reduced their overall debt scale and costs, allowing for increased support for investment, consumption, and technological innovation [3][25][26] - By 2026, local governments are expected to focus on both increasing revenue and reducing expenditures, with a strong emphasis on revitalizing idle assets and managing hidden debts effectively [3][26] Group 3 - Investment strategies should focus on regions where significant debt resolution policies or funding have been implemented, particularly in areas like Chongqing, Tianjin, and Guangxi, with a recommended duration of 3-5 years for investments [4][30] - The report suggests that provinces with strong economic fundamentals and effective debt management, such as Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang, should be prioritized for longer-duration investments due to their robust financing capabilities [29][30] - Areas with strong industrial foundations and financial support, particularly cities with significant industrial clusters, are recommended for short-duration investments of 2-3 years to mitigate risks from potential interest rate fluctuations [31][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The market is mainly trading on the decline in interest rate cut expectations despite the reopening of the US federal government. Although short - term US bonds may be pressured by interest rate cut expectations, the long - term interest rate cut path is clear, and the correction window is worth left - hand side layout [2][3] - Different types of assets in the global market show significant structural differentiation, with funds rebalancing between regions and styles [23][24] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic Interest Rate Review 1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Review - US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 6.413 million barrels this week, far exceeding market expectations. The current supply - demand pattern is short - term loose, which is expected to suppress the rebound of oil prices. If demand remains weak, the inventory accumulation trend may continue and put pressure on the December market [10] - ADP's latest weekly employment trend estimate shows that US companies cut an average of 11,250 jobs per week in the four weeks ending October 25, indicating a slowdown in autumn recruitment. The labor market is moving from weak growth to a net loss [10] 1.2 Main Overseas Market Interest Rate Review - **US**: The US federal government reopened, but the market mainly traded on the decline in interest rate cut expectations. FOMC members' hawkish signals and the uncertainty of data after the government's reopening led to a decline in the market's expectation of a December interest rate cut from 67% to 44%. The 10 - year Treasury yield reached 4.14%, and the Nasdaq index fell significantly. In the long run, the interest rate cut path is clear [2][11][12] - **Auction Results**: The 3 - year US note auction was stable and strong; the 10 - year US note auction was slightly weak; the 30 - year US Treasury auction was weak [14] - **Europe and Japan**: Japanese bond short - term yields were basically flat, while medium - and long - term yields increased significantly, and the yield curve steepened. German bond yields rose overall, and the 10 - year German Treasury yield reached 2.7%, the highest since early October [4][22] 2. Other Major Asset Reviews - **Equity**: European and Asian emerging markets were relatively strong. The A - share Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly, the Hang Seng Index rose, the Nasdaq fell, and European stock markets such as the UK, Germany, and France performed well. Emerging markets like India, Vietnam, and South Korea also rose, showing a rebalancing of funds [23] - **Commodity**: Precious metals led the rise, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products rose slightly, while black metals and Bitcoin weakened. Gold and silver rose by 1.9% and 6.8% respectively, and Bitcoin fell by 8.5% [24] - **Foreign Exchange**: The Swiss franc led the rise, and the Japanese yen fell significantly. The US dollar, Hong Kong dollar, and other currencies also showed different trends [25] 3. Market Tracking - The report provides multiple charts, including the rise and fall of global major economies' Treasury bond interest rates, the rise and fall of global major stock indexes, the rise and fall of major commodities, and the rise and fall of global major foreign exchange rates, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [32][35][37][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the motorcycle industry, particularly recommending companies such as Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle [18]. Core Insights - The motorcycle industry is experiencing steady growth in the mid-to-large displacement segment, with a notable increase in exports. The report highlights the robust performance of leading companies in this sector, driven by new model launches and an expanding market [4][18]. - The report indicates that the overall sales of mid-to-large displacement motorcycles are expected to resonate positively in both domestic and international markets, supported by the efforts of key players like Chuanfeng Power and Longxin General [5][18]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In October 2025, the sales of motorcycles above 250cc reached 61,000 units, showing a slight year-on-year decline of 0.2% but a significant month-on-month drop of 29.7%. Cumulatively, from January to October, sales totaled 822,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.7% [3]. - The sales of motorcycles above 125cc in October were 603,000 units, up 1.0% year-on-year but down 19.7% month-on-month, with growth primarily from the 125-150cc and 500-800cc segments [4]. Structural Analysis - The report notes strong growth in the 500cc+ displacement models, with October sales of 13,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.2%. Cumulative sales from January to October reached 161,000 units, up 128.7% year-on-year [5]. - The 250cc to 400cc segment saw a decline in October sales, with 36,000 units sold, down 8.5% year-on-year and 31.5% month-on-month, while the 400cc to 500cc segment experienced a slight decrease of 7.2% year-on-year [5]. Market Dynamics - The top three companies in the 250cc+ segment for October were Chuanfeng Power, Longxin General, and Qianjiang Motorcycle, with a combined market share of 43.7%. Chuanfeng Power maintained a leading position with a market share of 18.8% [6][8]. - Longxin General's sales in October were 11,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 62.7%, while Qianjiang Motorcycle's sales were 4,000 units, down 47.9% year-on-year [8][15]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the mid-to-large displacement motorcycle market, driven by new model launches and an expanding consumer base. The focus will be on enhancing domestic sales and increasing export volumes, particularly for Chuanfeng Power and Longxin General [12][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of new product introductions and brand positioning in capturing market share and driving future sales growth [14][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings, with a target price based on adjusted PE ratios of 21X for 2025, 18X for 2026, and 16X for 2027 [5]. Core Insights - Tencent's overall performance in Q3 2025 exceeded expectations, with a revenue growth of 15% year-on-year and a gross profit increase of 22%, driven primarily by strong growth in gaming and advertising revenues [1][2]. - The company's strategic investments in AI are beginning to yield results, enhancing efficiency across various business scenarios, including targeted advertising and user engagement in gaming [2]. - The report highlights the robust performance of Tencent's value-added services, particularly in overseas gaming, which saw a 43% year-on-year revenue increase [3]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q3 2025, Tencent's revenue reached 750.2 billion RMB, with Non-IFRS net profit also increasing by 18% year-on-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus estimates [1][5]. Value-Added Services - Revenue from value-added services grew by 16% to 959 billion RMB, with domestic game revenue contributing significantly, particularly from long-standing titles like "Honor of Kings" and "Peacekeeper Elite" [3]. Marketing Services - Marketing services revenue rose by 21% to 362 billion RMB, driven by increased user engagement and improvements in advertising effectiveness due to AI [4]. Financial Technology and Enterprise Services - Financial technology and enterprise services revenue increased by 10% to 582 billion RMB, with notable growth in cloud services and commercial payment activities [5]. Financial Forecast - The report projects revenues of 750.2 billion RMB for 2025, 835.3 billion RMB for 2026, and 915.5 billion RMB for 2027, with corresponding Non-IFRS net profits of 260.3 billion RMB, 300.7 billion RMB, and 335.3 billion RMB respectively [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company shows strong sales performance in October, with fuel motorcycle sales reaching 17,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [1]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in its electric motorcycle segment, with sales of 28,000 units in October, representing a year-on-year increase of 141% [2]. - The four-wheeled beach vehicle exports also performed well, with sales of 19,000 units in October, up 43.3% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Two-Wheeled Vehicles - The company’s 250cc+ motorcycle sales in October reached 11,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.8% [2]. - Cumulative sales from January to October for 250cc+ motorcycles reached 166,000 units, up 35.6% year-on-year, with market share increasing to 20.2% [2]. - The company’s electric motorcycle brand, Jike, saw sales of 253,000 units from January to October, a significant year-on-year increase [2]. Four-Wheeled Vehicles - The company is focusing on the U.S. market, with October sales of four-wheeled beach vehicles reaching 19,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [3]. - Cumulative sales from January to October for four-wheeled vehicles reached 151,000 units, up 9.7% year-on-year [3]. - The company is expected to maintain its leading market share in Europe and continue expanding in the U.S. market [3]. Product Launches - At the 2025 Milan Show, the company unveiled its new flagship ADV motorcycle, featuring a 946cc engine and advanced electronic configurations [4]. - The performance flagship prototype, V4 SR-RR, was also showcased, featuring a 997cc V4 engine with over 210 horsepower [4]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 19.91 billion, 24.51 billion, and 29.50 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 1.86 billion, 2.38 billion, and 2.93 billion yuan [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 12.19, 15.61, and 19.21 yuan for the same years [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The gap between domestic and overseas large models in AI is rapidly narrowing, with domestic AI ecosystems represented by Tencent and Alibaba showing significant development. This suggests a potential turning point for accelerated growth in domestic AI [3][22]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on core targets in domestic computing power and AI agents, highlighting key companies in cloud computing, chip design, and AI applications [3][22]. Summary by Sections Market Review - During the week of November 10-14, the CSI 300 index fell by 1.08%, the SME index decreased by 1.71%, and the ChiNext index dropped by 3.01%. The computer sector (CITIC) saw a decline of 3.72% [30]. Industry News - AMD's CEO predicts that the AI data center market will exceed $1 trillion by 2030, growing from approximately $200 billion currently, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 40% [23]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice to accelerate the construction of pilot platforms in the manufacturing sector, aiming to enhance innovation and technology transfer [24]. Company News - Lingzhi Software plans to acquire 100% of Kaimiride (Suzhou) Information Technology Co., Ltd. through a share issuance and cash payment, with a share price set at 15.31 yuan [27]. - Zhengyuan Wisdom's board approved a share repurchase plan, intending to reduce up to 2,842,000 shares within six months [29]. Weekly Insights - Domestic large models like MiniMax and DeepSeek are now among the top global models, with MiniMax M2 achieving a daily token usage surpassing 50 billion, indicating strong market acceptance [9][12]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape in AI, with Tencent and Alibaba intensifying their efforts in AI applications, suggesting an imminent phase of heightened competition in the domestic AI market [20][22].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Bilibili-W (9626.HK) [4] Core Insights - Bilibili's Q3 2025 results exceeded expectations, with revenue of 7.69 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 5%, and adjusted net profit of 790 million RMB, up 233% year-over-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus by 22% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from its strategy of "self-developed quality products and global distribution," with a focus on improving profitability and operational efficiency [4] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 revenue: 76.9 billion RMB, gross profit: 28.2 billion RMB, adjusted operating profit: 6.9 billion RMB, adjusted net profit: 7.9 billion RMB [1] - Q3 2025 advertising revenue: 25.7 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 23%, accounting for 33% of total revenue [3] - Q3 2025 value-added services revenue: 30.2 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 7% [3] - Forecasted revenues for 2025-2027 are 29.9 billion RMB, 32.7 billion RMB, and 35.9 billion RMB, respectively [5] User Metrics - Q3 2025 daily active users (DAU): 117 million, year-over-year increase of 9%; monthly active users (MAU): 376 million, year-over-year increase of 8% [1] - The number of creators earning revenue reached nearly 2.5 million, with average income per creator increasing by 22% year-over-year [1] Game Development Insights - Mobile game revenue in Q3 2025 was 15.1 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 17% due to high base effects from the previous year [2] - Upcoming game releases include "Three Kingdoms: Hundred Generals Card" expected in Q1 2026 [2] Advertising and Marketing Trends - The advertising budget is expected to continue increasing, with significant growth in AI and education sector advertising [3] - During the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, the number of new customers increased by over 100% year-over-year [3]

Group 1 - The report suggests that in the absence of strong expectations for short-term interest rate cuts, both long-term government bond yields and short-term deposit rates are unlikely to decline significantly. The market currently does not anticipate easing of short-term funds or a reduction in LPR [1][8][37] - It is recommended to focus on two strategies for portfolio construction: 1. Opt for slightly lower duration for defensive positioning, waiting for a rate adjustment of around 5 basis points before considering extending duration; 2. Maintain a market-neutral or slightly longer duration stance, with risk exposure suggested to be placed in active bonds where spreads can compress, such as government bonds and ultra-long government bonds [1][8][40] Group 2 - For bond selection, the report emphasizes prioritizing long-term interest rate bonds, particularly focusing on 250215. If there is a higher frequency demand for duration adjustment, 25T6 should be considered. For higher yield bonds like 25T5 and 25T3, attention should gradually decrease as spreads compress further [2][10][12] - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes that the spread between 3-5 year credit bonds and government bonds is already low, indicating limited room for further compression. It is suggested to focus on mid-term government bonds for short-term capital gains, while mid to long-term credit bonds may offer better value for long-term holding [3][13] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current overall IRR level of government bond futures is slightly higher than the funding rate, with most futures contracts being relatively expensive compared to cash bonds. The strategy of focusing on the compression of spreads between government bonds and government-backed bonds is recommended [4][14] - The report highlights that the bond market has maintained a volatile trend, with government bonds showing stronger performance. Despite weak financial and economic data in October, interest rates have not significantly declined, and the market sentiment towards bonds remains cautious [15][20]

- The report constructs an ETF hotspot trend strategy based on the highest and lowest price trends of ETFs, selecting those with both highest and lowest prices in an upward trend. Further, it constructs a support-resistance factor based on the relative steepness of the regression coefficients of the highest and lowest prices over the past 20 days, and selects the top 10 ETFs with the highest turnover rate in the past 5 days/20 days to construct a risk parity portfolio[27][30] - The report tracks the performance of various style factors, noting that the value factor recorded a positive return of 2.36%, the leverage factor recorded a positive return of 1.08%, and the volatility factor slightly rebounded with a return of 0.19%[41][42] - The report evaluates the performance of different alpha factors, highlighting that the quick ratio factor had the best performance with a weekly excess return of 1.32%, followed by the debt-asset ratio factor with a weekly excess return of 1.21%, and the earnings variability over 5 years factor with a weekly excess return of 1.04%[44][46][47] - The ETF hotspot trend strategy recorded a cumulative excess return over the CSI 300 index since the beginning of the year[28][29] - The value factor achieved a weekly return of 2.36%, the leverage factor achieved a weekly return of 1.08%, and the volatility factor achieved a weekly return of 0.19%[41][42] - The quick ratio factor achieved a weekly excess return of 1.32%, the debt-asset ratio factor achieved a weekly excess return of 1.21%, and the earnings variability over 5 years factor achieved a weekly excess return of 1.04%[44][46][47]