联邦制药（3933.HK）深度报告 穿越周期的抗生素产业龙头，创新管线迎来兑现拐点 2025 年 07 月 24 日 ➢ 抗生素产业一体化领航者，多业务协同开启增长新周期。联邦制药以抗生素 制剂产品起家，横纵延伸至今已形成涵盖中间体（6APA、G 钾盐等）、原料药 （阿莫西林、氨苄西林等）及制剂（动保、胰岛素、仿制制剂）的三大基础业务 版图。在动保业务产能桎梏解除、胰岛素续约量增覆盖价减冲击、难仿生物类似 物上市放量等多重催化下，我们认为公司基础业务盘的增长韧性有望得到进一步 显现。同时，公司凭借稳定的基础业务现金流，持续为创新转型提供坚实支撑， 业务衔接发力有望推动公司进入新一轮业绩成长周期。 ➢ 创新转型达成阶段性成果，UBT251 成功携手 MNC 破冰创新品种出海。 2025 年 3 月，公司公布旗下创新品种 UBT251（自研 GLP/GIP/GCG 三靶点药 物）成功通过授权形式与全球降糖减重领域龙头诺和诺德达成合作。当前UBT251 已完成国内Ⅰb 期超重/肥胖临床实验，最高剂量组（6mg）取得 12 周内减重 15.1%的亮眼数据。公司当前已启动 UBT251 在国内超重/肥胖的Ⅱ期临床实验， ...

2025年07月23日 证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|交通运输 快递行业 6 月数据解读：顺丰增速继续 领跑，关注"反内卷"后续落地效果 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 证券研究报告 |报告要点 6 月，全国快递业务量完成 168.7 亿件，同比增长 15.8%；快递业务收入完成 1263.2 亿元， 同比增长 9.0%；行业平均单票价格为 7.49 元，同比下降 5.85%。基于"反内卷"政策软约束 下，我们认为行业整体竞争强度预计可控，淡季价格降幅或趋于稳定。当前板块估值已回落至 历史相对低位，安全边际较为充分，建议关注"反内卷"政策号召下的板块投资机会。 |分析师及联系人 李蔚 SAC：S0590522120002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 11 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年07月23日 扫码查看更多 行业事件 6 月，全国快递业务量完成 168.7 亿件，同比增长 15.8%；快递业务收入完成 1263.2 亿元，同比增长 9.0%。 ➢ 业务量：件量增速回落，顺丰延续高增 6 月全国社零总额为 4.23 万亿元，同比增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the SST (Solid State Transformer) solution, highlighting its comprehensive advantages in the data center sector [4][70]. Core Insights - The global AI market is projected to grow from 1,187.9 billion RMB in 2023 to 11,455.4 billion RMB by 2030, with a CAGR exceeding 35% [5][14]. - The SST solution is particularly suitable for microgrid DC power scenarios, enabling direct conversion from grid power to 800V DC supply, addressing various challenges in data center power supply [5][47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-frequency transformers and power electronic devices in the SST solution, recommending key companies in these sectors for investment [5][70]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Status and Challenges - The demand for full DC systems is increasing due to the rising proportion of DC devices in data centers, necessitating a compatible full DC power supply architecture [21]. - Traditional 54V power supply systems are reaching their limits, prompting the need for higher voltage levels, such as the 800V HVDC architecture proposed by leading companies [28]. - The area occupied by power distribution systems is increasing as power density in data centers rises, with projections indicating that power distribution systems may occupy equal space to IT equipment in high-density setups [30] [31]. 2. Advantages of SST Solution - The SST solution offers modularity and high efficiency, with the ability to directly convert high voltage AC to low voltage DC, significantly reducing space requirements and improving energy efficiency [44][63]. - SST technology utilizes advanced semiconductor devices and high-frequency transformers, allowing for active control of power quality and rapid fault detection [55][57]. - The SST solution has already been implemented in benchmark data center projects, demonstrating its potential for widespread adoption in the industry [65]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in high-frequency transformers, power electronic devices, and advanced magnetic materials, as they are expected to benefit from the growth of the SST market [70].

Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: Outperform the market (maintained) [8] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the successful transition of the company from online education to the trendy toy market, with its brand WAKUKU gaining significant popularity, topping various sales charts [5][9] - The strategic acquisition of Letsvan for 235 million RMB has allowed the company to enter the high-growth trendy toy sector, which is expected to complement its existing education business [11][51] - The global IP toy market is projected to reach 525.1 billion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 9% from 2020 to 2024, indicating a robust growth opportunity for the company [11][46] Summary by Sections Transition from Online Education - The company faced challenges in its core online education business, with a revenue decline of 24.6% year-on-year, prompting a strategic shift [10][31] - As of March 31, 2025, the company had 1.45 billion registered users, but the growth momentum was weakening due to rising competition and marketing fatigue [10][28] - The company adopted a "quality over quantity" strategy, focusing on high-value users and improving product offerings, resulting in a 34.4% reduction in marketing expenses [35][36] Entry into Trendy Toys - The company recognized the potential of the trendy toy market, which is characterized by emotional consumption trends among younger consumers [47][48] - The acquisition of Letsvan has positioned the company to leverage its operational capabilities from the education sector in the toy market [52] - WAKUKU's pricing strategy, with products priced between 59-98 RMB, effectively targets entry-level consumers and fills market gaps [55] IP Economy and Opportunities for Traditional Companies - Traditional stationery companies are encouraged to enter the IP economy, utilizing their established supply chains and design capabilities to capture new growth [61] - Companies like Morning Glory and Guangbo have the potential to thrive in the IP derivative market due to their strong brand recognition and existing distribution channels [61][62] - The report suggests that the rapid growth of the trendy toy market presents significant opportunities for companies willing to innovate and adapt [62]

证券研究报告 行业研究|行业专题研究|农林牧渔 如何看待 2025 年 6 月生猪产能数据？ 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年07月23日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 6 月能繁母猪存栏环比小增。据农业农村部数据，6 月份全国 5 月龄以上的中大猪存栏量较上 个月下降 0.8%，预示着 7-8 月份的生猪出栏量将有所减少，有利于猪价稳定和养殖盈利。据 国家统计局数据，二季度末全国能繁母猪存栏量 4043万头，为3900 万头正常保有量的103.7%， 仍然处于产能调控绿色合理区域的上限。农业农村部将重点抓好生猪产能调控、生猪稳产稳 价两方面工作，促进生猪生产稳定发展。重点推荐成本优势明显，出栏兑现度高的优秀养殖企 业。推荐牧原股份、温氏股份等；同时推荐后周期动保及饲料板块，如海大集团等。 |分析师及联系人 王明琦 涂雅晴 SAC：S0590524040003 SAC：S0590524110004 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 9 行业研究|行业专题研究 glzqdatemark2 2025年07月23日 农林牧渔 如何看待 2025 年 6 月生猪产能数据？ 投资建议 ...

电新行业 2025Q2 基金持仓分析 底已现，势待起 2025 年 07 月 22 日 ➢ 电新板块总体持仓占比环比下降。根据基金的披露规则，一季报和三季报 披露前十大重仓股，半年报和年报披露全部持仓，故持仓总市值存在差异，因此 我们主要选取相同的数据口径即前十大重仓股进行趋势分析。从中信一级行业分 类来看，截至 2025Q2 中信电新行业基金持仓比重为 8.39%，环比-0.81Pcts， 同比-0.66Pcts；中信电新行业市值在总市值中的比重为 5.12%，环比-0.17Pcts， 同比+0.01Pcts。 | | 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 简称 | 股价 | | EPS（元） | | | PE（倍） | | 评级 | | | | （元） | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | 286.66 | 11.58 | 15.19 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that public active equity funds are experiencing steady issuance with increasing positions, reaching an average position level of 86% [9][21][18] - The report highlights a significant increase in the allocation towards the communication, biopharmaceutical, banking, non-bank financial, and defense industries, with a continuous increase in the biopharmaceutical sector over two consecutive quarters [10][23] - The electronic industry remains the top sector in terms of weight, while there has been a notable reduction in the food and beverage, automotive, and electric equipment sectors [10][23] Group 2 - Active bond funds have shown a significant recovery in scale, with a 6.2% increase compared to the previous period, and an overall increase in duration, with the average duration of medium to long-term pure bond funds at 4.19 [11][2] - The report notes a preference for government bonds and corporate short-term financing bonds, while the proportion of financial bonds and medium-term notes has decreased [11][2] Group 3 - FOF products have maintained a high issuance pace, with 15 new products launched in the second quarter, resulting in a total scale increase of approximately 9% compared to the first quarter of 2025 [12][13] - The report emphasizes a continued increase in passive bond funds, while the proportion of active equity and QDII funds has decreased [12][14] Group 4 - The report identifies a shift in market style from "valuation repair" to "performance-driven" as more mid-to-high frequency economic data emerges, with a focus on the performance verification of basic fundamentals [47] - The report suggests that dividend assets still offer attractive yields compared to government bond returns, with a positive outlook on the banking sector and public utilities [47]

瑞鹄模具（002997.SZ）系列点评十 25Q2 业绩超预期 机器人业务稳步推进 2025 年 07 月 22 日 ➢ 事件概述：公司披露 2025 年半年度报告，2025H1 营收 16.62 亿元，同比 +48.30%；归母净利润 2.27 亿元，同比+40.33%；扣非归母净利 2.17 亿元，同 比+41.76%。 ➢ 25Q2 业绩超预期 智界销量略承压。1）营收端：2025Q2 营收 9.15 亿元， 同比+48.74%，环比+22.51%。2025Q2 公司大客户奇瑞销量为 640,099 辆， 同比+12.10%，环比+3.24%，带动营收端增长。2025Q2 重点车型智界 R7 与 S7 累计销量为 15,031 辆，环比-52.82%，表现承压，公司营收端逆势增长，主 要系装备业务拉动。2）利润端：2025Q2 公司实现归母净利润 1.30 亿元，同比 +50.78%，环比+32.93%，表现亮眼。公司 2025Q2 毛利率为 26.35%，同环比 分别+1.86pct/+1.35pct，净利率为 16.28%，同环比分别+0.20/+1.40pct，同 环比均提升系产品结构改变影响。3 ...

➢ 强大的货币：人民币稳定币可能是开启国际化的一条新路径。近期数字人民 币的发展也在提速，其中，发展人民币稳定币可能是打破美元霸权、推进人民币 国际化的重要路径。 ➢ 强大的中央银行：以买卖国债为起点，充实工具箱。央行将沉寂许久的国债 买卖纳入政策工具箱，是我国货币政策操作方式的重大变革，更是锻造"强大的 中央银行"的核心能力、央行可以更自主地调控流动性。 ➢ 强大的金融机构："强强联手"是一大捷径。当前头部机构正以"强强融合" 的方式重塑格局。比如国泰君安与海通证券启动合并，成功打造行业新巨头。 "十五五"规划系列报告（四） 从金融强国看"十五五"规划 2025 年 07 月 21 日 ➢ 今年以来资本市场稳定性和韧性的不断增强，离不开"金融强国"建设的加 快推进。从类平准基金的建立到人民币国际化的加速，从公募改革方案的出台到 科创板"1+6"落地……随着"十四五"收官之年以金融之力助推科技创新和产业 创新的深度融合，"十五五"时期"金融强国"的战略高度有望抬升。这不仅是因 为中央金融工作会议已经锚定了加快建设金融强国目标，更是因为从世界大国崛 起的历史来看，"金融强国"是从"制造强国"迈向"科技强国"的必 ...

电力设备及新能源周报 20250720 光伏产业链价格上行，6 月变压器出口总额创新高 2025 年 07 月 20 日 ➢ 本周（20250714-20250718）板块行情 电力设备与新能源板块：本周上涨 0.57%，涨跌幅排名第 15，弱于上证指数。 本周工控自动化涨幅最大，太阳能指数跌幅最大。工控自动化上涨 3.57%，新 能源汽车指数上涨 2.62%，核电指数上涨 1.95%，储能指数上涨 1.34%，锂电 池指数上涨 0.29%，风力发电指数下跌 0.75%，太阳能指数下跌 2.53%。 ➢ 新能源车：2025 年第二季度美国轻型车市场创下年内首次负增长 2025 年第二季度，美国轻型车市场出现了显著的结构变动。由于关税政策的 实施以及市场对价格上涨的预期，消费者提前进行了购车消费，导致需求被提 前透支，6 月销量同比下降 4.2%，至 128.8 万辆，第二季度销量增长 2.3%， 达到 4,207,796 辆，成为本年度首次出现的销量负增长情况。与此同时，美国 本地组装车型在总交付量中的占比从去年同期的 53.4% 上升至 54.8%，这一 数据变化直观反映出市场对本地制造车型的偏好正不断增强 ...