量化周报 沪深 300 站稳 4000 点 2025 年 07 月 20 日 ➢ 择时观点：沪深 300 站稳 4000 点。当下流动性还未确认上行，分歧度保 持下行，景气度继续上行，三维择时框架继续满仓。从技术形态来看，沪深 300 已突破 4000 点关键阻力线，并且站稳水平线，原先的阻力线转换为支撑线，因 此市场的回撤空间相对较小。当下距离下一阻力线仍有空间，当下流动性景气度 都较好，继续保持乐观。 ➢ 指数监测：金融科技大幅流入。近 1 周 ETF 产品申购流入增速快的有：金融 科技、500 等权、中证软件、香港证券、800 银行等。近 1 周国证粮食、科创生 物、富时中国国企开放共赢、中证 A 股、恒生医疗保健份额流出最多。 ➢ 资金共振：推荐医药，非银行金融，通信与交通运输。我们监控两融与大单 资金的共振情绪，选择两类资金都看好的行业。两融资金流上周在计算机中净流 入最多，净流入 38.1 亿元；大单资金上周在汽车中净流入最多，净流入 7.8 亿 元。根据融资融券净流入与主动大单资金的净流入情况，本周推荐医药，非银行 金融，通信与交通运输。 ➢ 因子跟踪：成长因子表现亮眼。从时间上看，成长因子表现 ...

交通运输行业 2025 年 6 月快递数据点评 顺丰控股件量维持高增，件量和份额同比分别+31.8%和 0.1pct 2025 年 07 月 20 日 ➢ 事件：2025 年 7 月 18 日，各快递公司公告 2025 年 6 月快递服务主要经营指标。 ➢ 行业数据：国家邮政局公布 2025 年 6 月快递行业运行情况，6 月份快递业务量与 业务收入分别完成 168.7 亿件和 1263.2 亿元，分别同比增长 15.8%和 9.0%，2025 年 1-6 月，快递业务收入累计完成 7187.8 亿元，同比增长 10.1%，快递业务量累计完成 956.4 亿件，同比增长 19.3%。 ➢ 公司 2025 年 6 月月度数据：顺丰/申通/韵达/圆通，1）快递业务收入分别为 199.62、 43.41、41.49、55.27 亿元，收入同比增速分别为+14.2%、+10.1%、+2.8%、+11.4%。 2）业务量分别为 14.60、21.84、21.73、26.27 亿件，件量同比增速分别+31.8%、+11.1%、 +7.4%、+19.3%，份额分别为 8.7%、12.9%、12.9%、15.6%，份额环比分 ...

➢ 短期来看，我们认为跨境支付场景有望成为稳定币落地应用的重要场景，稳 定币有望助力提升跨境支付效率、降低跨境支付成本，跨境支付相关金融科技标 的有望持续受益，建议重点关注连连数字。 ➢ 长期来看，稳定币有望推动虚拟资产交易和 RWA（Real World Asset，现 实世界资产代币化）、STO（Security Token Offering，证券代币化），稳定币 有望助力传统金融资产进行"链上"交易，中资券商加速布局，例如国泰君安国 际升级虚拟资产交易牌照、广发证券（香港）已全面接入 HashKey Chain 作为 核心链上发行网络，并发行首个每日可申赎代币化证券"GF Token"，头部券商 和交易所标的有望更为受益稳定币发展，建议重点关注香港交易所、中信证券、 华泰证券、国泰海通和中国银河等标的。 中国香港《稳定币条例》生效在即，重视头部券商及跨境支付 2025 年 07 月 20 日 ➢ 中国香港《稳定币条例》即将于 8 月 1 日正式生效，"沙盒试验"不断推 进，技术架构、合规性及实际应用场景有望不断完善，有望推动中国香港稳定币 相关产业发展，同时美国国会众议院于 7 月 17 日以 308 ...

核聚变系列（02） 瀚海聚能点亮仪式开启，FRC 路线持续推进 2025 年 07 月 20 日 ➢ 事件：7 月 18 日，瀚海聚能（成都）科技有限公司 HHMAX-901 主机建设 完成暨等离子体点亮仪式在公司聚变装置基地成功举行，中国首台商业化直线型 场反位形聚变装置成功实现等离子体点亮，标志着我国在可控核聚变商业化探索 上，尤其是直线型场反位形技术路线的商业化应用上，取得了重大突破。"人造太 阳"点亮人类未来，人类迎来能源自由的梦想正在成为现实。 ➢ FRC 技术路线是核聚变反应的一种。聚变的路线主要分为两类：磁约束、惯 性约束。磁约束是当前较为主流的路线，主要有托卡马克（环形磁场）、场反位形 （Field-Reversed Configuration, FRC）、仿星器（复杂外线圈磁场）。随着相关 科学技术的快速进步，系统结构简单、造价及运行成本低的 FRC 备受关注，被称 为核聚变领域有望首先实现商业化的技术路线。FRC 的原理是通过反向电流产生 闭合的极向磁场（无中心螺线管），形成类似磁岛的封闭结构，从而形成自组织的 反向磁场。 ➢ FRC 技术路线代表性的是美国的 Helion 公司。美国的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the automotive and automotive parts industry, highlighting key companies such as Geely, BYD, Li Auto, and Xpeng as core investment opportunities [4][8]. Core Insights - The upcoming Tesla earnings call and the World Artificial Intelligence Conference are expected to catalyze advancements in robotics and the automotive sector, with significant developments anticipated from Tesla [2][9]. - The report emphasizes the positive impact of new vehicle launches on the passenger car market, driven by government policies aimed at reducing competition and enhancing quality [3][10]. - The report suggests a shift in competition from price wars to value-based competition, which is expected to improve the overall market structure [3][10]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data - In the second week of July 2025, passenger car sales reached 370,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.0% but a month-on-month decrease of 8.7%. New energy vehicle sales were 207,000 units, up 11.7% year-on-year and down 4.0% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of 55.8% [1][36]. Market Performance - The automotive sector outperformed the market, with a 3.41% increase in A-share automotive stocks from July 14 to July 18, ranking third among sub-industries [1][25]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality domestic brands that are accelerating in smart technology and globalization, specifically naming Geely, BYD, Li Auto, Xiaomi, and Xpeng [4][11]. - For automotive parts, it highlights companies involved in smart driving and new energy vehicle supply chains, such as Berteli, Horizon Robotics, and Top Group [4][12]. Passenger Car Market - The report notes that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's policies to combat "involution" in the automotive industry will alleviate cash flow pressures on parts suppliers and enhance industry collaboration [3][10]. - Upcoming vehicle launches, including models from Li Auto and Geely, are expected to improve market fundamentals [3][10]. Robotics Sector - The report highlights the acceleration of leading players entering the robotics market, with Tesla's advancements in humanoid robots expected to significantly impact the sector [14][15]. Motorcycle Market - The report indicates a strong performance in the motorcycle segment, particularly in the mid-to-large displacement category, with sales showing significant year-on-year growth [17][18]. Heavy Truck Market - The heavy truck market is projected to recover due to expanded government subsidies for replacing older vehicles, with a notable increase in sales observed in June 2025 [19][20]. Tire Industry - The tire industry is experiencing growth driven by high demand and improved manufacturing capabilities, with leading companies expected to benefit from global expansion [21][22].

⚫ 市场回顾 本周（7.14-7.18）沪深 300 指数上涨 1.09%，中小板指数上涨 2.26%，创业板 指数上涨 3.17%，计算机（中信）板块上涨 2.32%。板块个股涨幅前五名分别为： 熙菱信息、淳中科技、信息发展、鼎捷数智、拓尔思；跌幅前五名分别为：大智 慧、金证股份、京北方、信雅达、长亮科技。 ⚫ 行业要闻 ⚫ 公司动态 ➢ 首都在线：7 月 15 日消息，公司股东赵永志先生通过集中竞价及大宗交易 方式减持了公司股份 5,200,000 股，占公司总股本的 1.0360%，赵永志先生本 次减持计划已全部实施完成。 ➢ 广联达：7 月 15 日消息，公司通过股票回购专用证券账户以集中竞价交易 方式实施回购股份，累计回购公司股份数量 8,732,100 股，约占公司目前总股本 的 0.53%，最高成交价为 14.20 元/股，最低成交价为 13.23 元/股，成交总金额 为 121,956,165.8 元（不含交易费用）。 计算机周报 20250720 国产 AI 算力潜力被低估 2025 年 07 月 20 日 ➢ 中科信息：7 月 16 日消息，公司目前已完成工商变更登记手续，并取得了 成都市 ...

钢铁周报 20250720 稳增长方案即将出台，钢铁产能有望优化 2025 年 07 月 20 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格上涨。截至 7 月 18 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材质螺 纹价格为 3270 元/吨，较上周升 30 元/吨。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3430 元/吨， 较上周升 20 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3380 元/吨，较上周升 30 元/吨。冷轧 1.0mm 价格为 3730 元/吨，较上周升 50 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3360 元 /吨，较上周升 30 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格稳中有升，进口矿市 场价格上涨，废钢价格上涨。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润震荡。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化-19 元/吨，-7 元/吨和+7 元/吨。短流程方面，本 周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化+11 元/吨。 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 7 月 18 日，五大钢材产量下降，总库存环比下降。产量 方面，本周五大钢材品种产量 868 万吨，环比降 4.53 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量 周环比减 4.45 万吨，板材产量周环比降 0.08 万吨，螺纹 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stable performance and growth potential [3][12]. Core Insights - National electricity load has reached new highs, with peak season demand expected to drive coal prices upward. The report anticipates that by mid-August, prices may exceed 750 RMB/ton, with a price center around 700 RMB/ton for the second half of the year [2][7]. - Coal supply is decreasing significantly, with June 2025 coal imports down by 11.1% year-on-year, and domestic coal production showing mixed results. The overall capacity utilization rate in the coal mining sector has dropped to 69.3%, the lowest since Q1 2020 [2][21][38]. - The demand side shows a positive trend, with thermal power generation growth turning positive since late May, and electricity consumption reaching record levels due to rising temperatures [2][7][33]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include: 1. Huayang Co., Ltd. for stable performance and year-on-year production growth 2. Jinko Coal Industry for high net cash growth potential 3. Industry leaders like Shaanxi Coal and China Shenhua for stable earnings 4. Shanmei International for recovery in production 5. Xinji Energy for coal-electricity integrated growth 6. CGN Mining for benefiting from nuclear power growth [3][12]. Market Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the coal sector has seen a weekly decline of 0.7%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [13][15]. - Yunnan Coal Energy has shown the highest weekly increase at 4.11%, while Dayou Energy has experienced the largest decline at 10.33% [18][19]. Industry Dynamics - The report notes that coal prices are on an upward trend, with significant increases in both port and production prices. For instance, Qinhuangdao port's Q5500 coal price reached 634 RMB/ton, a weekly increase of 10 RMB/ton [8][10]. - The report highlights the structural tightness in coal supply, with power plants' coal inventories dropping below levels seen in 2023 and 2024 [2][7].

➢ 美国原油库存下降，汽油库存上升。截至 7 月 11 日，1）原油：美国战略原 油储备 40270 万桶，周环比-30 万桶；商业原油库存 42216 万桶，周环比-386 万 桶 。 2 ） 成 品 油 ： 车 用 汽 油 / 航空煤油 / 馏 分 燃 料 油 库 存 分 别 为 23287/4481/10697 万桶，周环比+340/+57/+417 万桶。 ➢ 投资建议：我们推荐以下两条主线：1）油价有底，石油企业业绩确定性高， 叠加高分红特点，估值有望提升，建议关注抗风险能力强且资源量优势强的中国 石油、产量持续增长且桶油成本低的中国海油、高分红一体化公司中国石化；2） 国内鼓励油气增储上产，建议关注产量处于成长期的中曼石油、新天然气。 石化周报 OPEC+按计划增产，消费旺季影响下油价维持震荡 2025 年 07 月 19 日 ➢ OPEC+按计划增产，消费旺季影响下油价维持震荡。据 OPEC 最新数据， 25 年 6 月 DOC 产量环比增长 45.8 万桶/日，略高于其 41.1 万桶/日的增产计 划，其中，沙特阿拉伯、阿联酋、哈萨克斯坦增产幅度最大，分别提产了 17.3、 8.3、5.1 万 ...

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The expectation is that U.S. inflation will rebound in Q3 2025, while the economy continues to weaken[2] - The Federal Reserve's difficulty in lowering interest rates is increasing despite economic downturns[3] - The dollar index is projected to break 100 in Q2 and Q3 2025, with gold identified as a key asset below $3000 per ounce[3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve's independence has been historically challenged, particularly during the World War II and Korean War periods, leading to inflation pressures[4] - The 1951 Treasury-Fed Accord marked a significant shift, establishing the Fed's independence in monetary policy[5] - Recent attempts by President Trump to influence the Fed's independence echo past governmental pressures, raising concerns about potential market impacts[7][12] Group 3: Historical Context - The Fed's establishment in 1913 did not prevent bank failures during the Great Depression, with one-third of banks closing by 1933[4] - The Fed's role evolved post-World War II, initially supporting government financing through low interest rates, which later contributed to inflation exceeding 20%[8][17] - The appointment of William McChesney Martin as Fed Chairman in 1951 was pivotal in asserting the Fed's independence against governmental pressures[10] Group 4: Risks and Implications - If the Fed loses its independence, the U.S. could face severe market repercussions, including stock, bond, and currency declines[12] - The potential for uncontrolled inflation could arise from aggressive monetary policy changes, leading to significant asset volatility[14]