Macro Trends - China's economy is transitioning from a real estate cycle bottoming out to a strategic shift towards high-end manufacturing, with real estate prices stabilizing around 4.53% of GDP, approaching the lower end of the 4%-6% range seen in the US and Japan[12][14]. - The manufacturing sector is accelerating domestic substitution in key areas like automotive and machinery, moving from scale dividends to high-value global value chain competition[2]. Global Expansion - Chinese companies are evolving from merely exporting products to building ecosystems, leveraging channels, capital, and products for comprehensive value and cultural output[3]. - The gaming industry has seen significant success, with 12 Chinese games ranking in the global top 30 revenue list, led by Tencent's "Honor of Kings"[50]. Consumer Behavior - The consumption cycle is shifting from a "total volume era" to a "structural era," focusing on precise segmentation and supply reconstruction, driven by a younger high-net-worth demographic[4]. - Retail and commercial real estate are transitioning from simple sales to a focus on professionalism and experiential offerings, reflecting a K-shaped differentiation in consumer preferences[4]. Asset Management - The global asset management landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, with gold and other assets moving independently from traditional stock-bond frameworks, challenging conventional asset allocation strategies[5]. - The rise of quantitative products and the diversity of ETF funds are significantly impacting active management models, reshaping the funding ecosystem both domestically and internationally[5].

主权与韧性的时代——五十图"马"说 2025 glmszqdatemark 国联民生策略春节特刊 | 五十张精彩纷呈的图表勾勒刚刚过去的 2025 年。 "马"年五十图——主权与韧性的时代 在旧秩序的裂缝中，新的格局正在重塑。我们用五十张图表，记录一个大国从"规 模红利"向"全球话语权"的转变。2025 年，宏观重新主导叙事，全球的底层逻 辑正从"效率至上"转向"主权与韧性"的博弈。 我们见证了房地产在阵痛中的价值筑底，那是旧增长时代的落幕，也是科技、制 造强国接棒的序曲；我们记录了中国企业在风浪中从"走出去"到"扎下去"，实 现从实物贸易向 IP 与生态的跨越；我们剖析了消费代际的 K 型分化，多资产、多 策略、多样性的资管趋势。五十张图表，力求在繁杂的数据噪音中，为您拨开迷 雾，讲述那个坚定的、不断前进的中国故事。 宏观——地产周期的筑底与制造业的升级之路 中国经济正处于地产周期筑底并迈向高端制造的战略转型期。房地产正经历向中 枢回归的价值重塑，价格筑底为长周期消费复苏奠定基石。与此同时，制造业凭 借资本深化与复杂度提升，在汽车、机械等核心赛道加速国产替代并深度嵌入全 球供应链，正由规模红利转向高附加值的 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [2][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that raw material inventory replenishment is nearly complete, with a focus on changes in real estate policies. It notes that steel production and apparent consumption are stabilizing, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in demand [8][32]. - The report anticipates that steel mill profits may continue to recover due to improved margins from raw material cost reductions and potential easing of real estate regulations [8][32]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of January 30, 2026, steel prices have decreased, with rebar priced at 3,240 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY from the previous week. Hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices also saw declines [15][16]. - The total production of major steel products reached 8.23 million tons, with an increase in inventory levels [8][32]. Profitability Analysis - The report estimates weekly gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel to have changed by -17 CNY/ton, +3 CNY/ton, and -19 CNY/ton respectively, indicating fluctuations in profitability [8][32]. Production and Inventory - The total inventory of major steel products rose by 222,100 tons to 8.89 million tons, with a slight decrease in steel mill inventory [8][32]. - Apparent consumption of rebar was estimated at 1.764 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 91,200 tons week-on-week [8][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their market position: 1. Leading companies in the general steel sector: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel 2. Specialty steel sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Fangda Special Steel 3. Pipe manufacturers: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Changbao Co. 4. Raw material companies with clear growth: Dazhong Mining (iron ore + lithium) and Fangda Carbon [8][32].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is at a critical juncture, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,844.96 points, up 2.34% from the previous week[17] - The market environment in early 2026 is similar to early 2025, characterized by weak overseas liquidity and strong AI application catalysts[11] AI Development and Opportunities - Anticipation for AI value reassessment in China is high, with significant developments expected in 2026, including the release of the DeepSeek V4 model in February[5] - Major Chinese tech firms are expected to increase capital expenditures in 2026, enhancing overall model capabilities[5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on platform-based internet companies with synergistic advantages in computing power, model capabilities, and application scenarios, such as Alibaba and Tencent[35] - Highlight AI ecosystem companies with model or application capabilities, including Kuaishou, MINIMAX, and Bilibili[35] Key Application Areas - The most significant AI application currently is in smart driving/automated driving, with companies like Baidu and Xpeng Motors leading the charge[35] - The performance of Alibaba's Qianwen app, which surpassed 100 million monthly active users within two months, indicates strong growth potential in AI applications[5] Risks to Consider - Geopolitical risks may impact overseas revenues and competitiveness, potentially affecting stock prices[37] - Regulatory risks in the internet sector could influence industry performance and individual stocks[37]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is at a critical juncture, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 26,844.96 points, up 2.34% from the previous week[17] - The market is experiencing volatility, with significant movements in large-cap stocks, particularly in the technology sector[17] AI Sector Insights - The AI application sector is expected to catalyze market movements, similar to the "Deepseek moment" seen in early 2025, driven by advancements in large models[5] - Anticipation for the release of DeepSeek V4 in February 2026 is expected to enhance AI capabilities, particularly in coding[14] Investment Recommendations - Focus on platform-based internet companies with synergistic advantages in computing power, model capabilities, and application scenarios, such as Alibaba and Tencent[35] - Highlight AI ecosystem companies that can leverage model or application capabilities, including Kuaishou, MINIMAX, and Bilibili[35] Performance Metrics - The Hang Seng Index's PE ratio is currently at 11.7X, reflecting a 1.66% increase, while the PB ratio stands at 1.23X, up 1.79%[20] - The AH premium index has decreased to 129.11, down 2.13%[20] Key Risks - Geopolitical risks may impact overseas revenues and competitiveness, potentially affecting stock prices[37] - Regulatory risks in the internet sector could influence industry performance and individual stocks[37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for several key companies in the power equipment and new energy sectors, including Ningde Times, Kodali, and others [5][6]. Core Insights - The power equipment and new energy sector saw a weekly increase of 0.79%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, with the energy storage index showing the highest growth at 1.81% [1]. - The National Energy Administration projects a total electricity consumption of 10,368.2 billion kWh by 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [4][56]. - TCL Zhonghuan's strategic investment in a new energy company aims to enhance vertical integration in the photovoltaic industry, reducing costs and improving efficiency [3][37]. Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles - Hive Energy showcased three core technological breakthroughs at its sixth Battery Day, focusing on semi-solid technology, Dragon Scale 3.0 technology, and ion oscillation fast charging technology, all aimed at enhancing safety and performance [2][13][21]. 2. New Energy Generation - TCL Zhonghuan's acquisition of a new energy company is expected to optimize resources and enhance business synergy, facilitating a shift from low-level competition to value co-creation in the photovoltaic sector [3][37]. 3. Power Equipment and Industrial Control - The National Grid's "14th Five-Year Plan" anticipates a fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, to support the development of a new power system [4][56]. - The report highlights significant growth in electricity consumption across various sectors, with the service industry and residential electricity usage contributing 50% to the overall growth [4][56]. 4. Commercial Aerospace - Trina Solar set a new world record with a 886W per 3.1 m² perovskite/silicon tandem module, reinforcing its leadership in high-efficiency energy technology [5]. 5. Weekly Sector Performance - The energy storage index led the sector with a 1.81% increase, while the nuclear power index experienced the largest decline at 6.39% [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 1.65 to 1.80 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 47.2% to 60.5% [1]. - The company's performance in Q4 2025 is expected to be impacted by asset disposal losses and other external factors, but the overall annual performance is driven by strong growth in the motorcycle and general machinery sectors, as well as continuous optimization of the product structure [1]. - The employee stock ownership plan is expected to enhance the stability of the core team and stimulate creativity and motivation [2]. - The company is expanding its large-displacement motorcycle sales globally, with significant contributions from the "Wuji" brand, particularly in the European market [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 20.16 billion, 23.41 billion, and 27.05 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.77 billion, 2.32 billion, and 2.71 billion yuan respectively [3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 1.67 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 57.6% compared to 2024 [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 0.86 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18 times based on the closing price of 15.10 yuan per share on January 16, 2026 [5]. Sales and Market Expansion - The company anticipates motorcycle sales of 10.8 million units in 2024 and 14.1 million units in 2025, with export sales expected to reach 5.1 million and 9.0 million units respectively [3]. - The "Wuji" brand has shown strong sales growth in Spain and Italy, with year-on-year increases of 80.7% and 96.5% respectively in 2025 [3]. Employee Engagement - The employee stock ownership plan, with a scale of up to 400 million yuan, aims to bind the interests of core personnel and enhance team stability [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, recommending several key companies [2][3]. Core Insights - The supply-demand situation is improving, leading to a potential recovery in profits for the steel industry. The report highlights that production of major steel products has increased, while total inventory has decreased, indicating a positive shift in market dynamics [7][30]. - The report emphasizes that the profitability of steel manufacturers is expected to recover in the short term due to improved supply-demand conditions and stable cost support from raw materials [7][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Steel Market - As of January 16, steel prices have risen, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,320 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other products like high-line and hot-rolled steel also saw price increases [13][14]. 2. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel products reached 8.19 million tons, an increase of 0.62 million tons week-on-week. Total inventory decreased by 11,700 tons to 865,320 tons, indicating a positive trend in inventory management [7][30]. 3. Profitability - The report notes a decline in steel profits, with average margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 13 CNY/ton, 4 CNY/ton, and 18 CNY/ton respectively. However, the overall outlook for profit recovery remains optimistic [7][30]. 4. Key Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - General Steel Leaders: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel - Special Steel Sector: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Fangda Special Steel - Pipe Manufacturers: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Changbao Co. - Raw Material Sector: Dazhong Mining (iron ore + lithium ore), Fangda Carbon [7][30].

- The "Competitive Advantage Portfolio" utilizes a competitive barrier analysis framework to categorize industries into four types: "Barrier Shield," "Highly Competitive," "Steady Progress," and "Seeking Breakthrough." The strategy focuses on identifying "sole leading" companies in "Barrier Shield" industries and "cooperative win-win" companies in industries without clear leaders. For non-"Barrier Shield" industries, it targets "efficient operation" companies that perform well even in competitive environments[11][12] - The "Margin of Safety Portfolio" emphasizes the internal factors of a company, focusing on creating entry barriers to ensure unique market positions and sustainable profitability. It calculates the intrinsic value of a company based on its profitability, selecting the top 50 stocks with the highest margin of safety from a pool of stocks with comprehensive competitive advantages. The portfolio is adjusted on May 1, September 1, and November 1 each year[17][19] - The "Dividend Low Volatility Adjusted Portfolio" aims to avoid the "high dividend trap" by considering the sustainability of company earnings and long-term value. It uses dividend yield predictions and negative screening to exclude stocks with extreme price performance or abnormal debt ratios[23] - The "AEG Valuation Potential Portfolio" uses the AEG_EP factor to select the top 100 stocks, then narrows it down to the top 50 stocks with high dividend reinvestment ratios. This strategy invests in companies whose growth potential is not yet fully recognized by the market. The AEG model calculates abnormal earnings growth as follows: $$ \begin{array}{c} A E G=Y_{t}-N_{t}=(E_{t}+r*D P S_{t-1})-(1+r)*E_{t-1} \\ \frac{V_{0}}{E_{1}}=\frac{1}{r}+\frac{1}{r}*\frac{\left(\frac{A E G_{2}}{1+r}+\frac{A E G_{3}}{(1+r)^{2}}+\frac{A E G_{4}}{(1+r)^{3}}+\cdots\right)}{E_{1}} \end{array} $$ where \(E_1\) is the first period's earnings and \(V_0\) is the current market value[28][29][31] - The "Cash Cow Portfolio" uses the CFOR analysis system to evaluate a company's profitability and cash generation efficiency. It focuses on the stability of free cash profit ratio, operating asset return rate, net profit margin, and total asset turnover rate, selecting high-quality stocks from the CSI 800 index[34][35][36] - The "Distressed Reversal Portfolio" captures short-term valuation fluctuations by utilizing inventory cycles to depict company reversals, considering accelerated recovery and undervaluation. It constructs a top 50 portfolio based on valuation improvement[41][43] Model Backtest Results - Competitive Advantage Portfolio: Annualized return since 2019 is 19.84%, Sharpe ratio 0.93, IR 0.09, maximum drawdown -19.32%, Calmar ratio 1.03[16] - Margin of Safety Portfolio: Annualized return since 2019 is 23.16%, Sharpe ratio 1.15, IR 0.16, maximum drawdown -16.89%, Calmar ratio 1.37[21] - Dividend Low Volatility Adjusted Portfolio: Annualized return since 2019 is 16.87%, Sharpe ratio 1.00, IR 0.17, maximum drawdown -21.61%, Calmar ratio 0.78[24] - AEG Valuation Potential Portfolio: Annualized return since 2019 is 25.36%, Sharpe ratio 1.16, IR 0.15, maximum drawdown -24.02%, Calmar ratio 1.06[33] - CSI 800 Cash Cow Portfolio: Annualized return since 2019 is 13.42%, Sharpe ratio 0.67, IR 0.09, maximum drawdown -19.80%, Calmar ratio 0.68[39] - Distressed Reversal Portfolio: Annualized return since 2019 is 24.53%, Sharpe ratio 0.99, IR 0.15, maximum drawdown -33.73%, Calmar ratio 0.73[43]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to return to a growth trajectory driven by its data center business and the recovery of the energy storage market in Europe and emerging markets [6][7] - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 600 million to 660 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 52.21% to 67.43% [6] - The data center and energy storage segments are seeing continuous increases in orders and shipments, contributing to the company's growth [6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 5,173 million, 7,025 million, and 9,155 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 24.4%, 35.8%, and 30.3% [6][7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 623 million, 1,002 million, and 1,358 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 57.9%, 60.9%, and 35.6% [6][7] - Earnings per share are expected to be 1.07, 1.72, and 2.33 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][7] Business Segments - The data center business has established a comprehensive product system, including integrated power modules and high-performance cooling solutions, and has formed deep partnerships with major internet companies [6] - The energy storage business is positioned for rapid growth in 2025, supported by a complete layout of technology, products, and global channels [6]