研究报告Research Report 22 May 2024 金盘科技 JINPAN TECHNOLOGY (688676 CH) 2024Q1 盈利能力保持稳定，海外营收占比快速提升 Fianancial performance maintain stable in Q1 2024, oversea’s revenue porporation grew quickly [观Ta点bl聚e_焦yem Ieniv1e]s tment Focus [ Tab维le_持Inf优o] 于大市Maintain OUTPERFORM (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 2024Q1 扣非归母净利润增速 36.6%，营收及归净利润增速有望在 评级 优于大市OUTPERFORM 二季度修复。2024Q1公司实现营收13.05亿元，同比增长0.60%； 现价 Rmb57.22 目标价 Rmb67.51 实现归母净利润0.95亿元，同比增长8.57%；实现扣非净利润1.01 亿元，同比增长36.63%；毛利率方面，2024 Q1公司综合毛利率为 HTI ESG 4.8-4.3 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/钢铁 证券研究报告 行业跟踪报告 [ Table_InvestInfo] 2024Q1 钢铁板块亏损 [Table_Summary] 投资要点：  2024Q1收入降幅大于成本降幅，毛利率降低。钢铁上市公司收入随钢价下跌而 下降。2023Q4上市钢企合计收入5098亿元，环比2023Q3下降0.77%；2024Q1 收入 4836亿元，环比 2023Q4下降 5.14%；2024Q1 上市钢企合计成本 4633亿 元，环比2023Q4降低4.24%。收入降幅大于成本降幅，毛利率下降；  2024Q1钢铁板块归母净利合计环降104%。2024Q1成本降幅小于收入降幅，毛 利率下降。2023Q4 归母净利润合计为 52.06 亿元，环比下降 47.29%。2024Q1 上市钢企合计归母净利润为-2.20亿元，环比下降 104%。其中宝钢股份 2023Q4 和2024Q1归母净利润分别为35.94亿元和19.26亿元，环比也是下降；  2024Q2钢铁板块利润环比好转。如果采用当日的钢价、矿价、焦煤价格来核算 利润，会发现2024Q1吨钢毛利比较弱。但钢企往往有半个 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Li Auto [3][6][18] Core Views - Li Auto's Q1 2024 revenue was Rmb25.63 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 36.4% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 38.6%. Vehicle sales revenue was Rmb24.25 billion, up 32.3% year-on-year and down 39.9% quarter-on-quarter. Vehicle deliveries reached 80,400 units, exceeding the company's revised guidance [17][18] - The company expects Q2 2024 vehicle deliveries to be between 105,000 and 110,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.3% to 27.1%, with total revenue projected at Rmb29.9 billion to Rmb31.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% to 9.4% [17][18] - Li Auto has postponed the release of its pure electric SUV model from the second half of 2024 to the first half of 2025, focusing on enhancing the sales of its range-extended vehicles [17][18] Financial Summary - For Q1 2024, Li Auto's non-GAAP net profit was Rmb1.3 billion, down 9.7% year-on-year and down 72.2% quarter-on-quarter. The operating loss was Rmb580 million, with an operating margin of -2.3% [17][18] - The forecast for 2024-2026 EPS is Rmb6.04, Rmb8.03, and Rmb11.60, with a target price adjustment to HK$149.80, reflecting a 27% decrease from the previous target price [17][18] - The company reported cash reserves of Rmb98.89 billion at the end of Q1 2024, with operating cash flow of Rmb3.3 billion and free cash flow of -Rmb5.1 billion [17][18] Market Position - The new model Li L6 has received over 20,000 orders within 12 days of its launch, indicating strong market demand. The L6 is positioned competitively in the Rmb200,000-300,000 hybrid SUV market, with limited direct competition [17][18]

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/商业贸易 证券研究报告 行业周报 [ Table_InvestInfo] 4 月社零 3.6 万亿增 2.3%， 可选消费品承压 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 【核心观点】 4月份，社零总额3.6万亿元增2.3%，我们测算三年CAGR为2.5%；除汽车以外的 消费品零售额3.2万亿元增3.2%。限额以上消费品零售1.4万亿增0.9%。 我们测算了各品类的4M2021-4M2024的单月3-year CAGR，限额以上品类看，必选 品增速优于可选：①粮油食品、饮料、烟酒、日用品：3-year CAGR整体优于可选 品类。②可选品类3-year CAGR中，金银珠宝>家电>服装>化妆品。 1. 4月社零3.6万亿增2.3%，可选消费品类多同比下降 2024年1-4月社零总额15.6万亿元，同比增长4.1%；其中除汽车外的消费品零售 额14.1万亿元，同比增长4.3%，限额以上消费品零售额5.9万亿元，同比增4.2%。 分渠道，1-4 月网上零售额 4.4 万亿，名义同比增长 11.5%，其中实物商品网上零 售额3.7万亿，同比增长11.1%，占比社零总额2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for MINISO Group with a target price of USD 31.90, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of USD 24.15 [2][4]. Core Insights - MINISO's revenue for Q1 reached RMB 3.72 billion, representing a 26% year-over-year increase. The gross profit margin hit a record high of 43.4%, up 4.1 percentage points year-over-year [8]. - The company has shown robust growth in both domestic and overseas markets, with domestic revenue at RMB 2.5 billion (up 16% YoY) and overseas revenue at RMB 1.22 billion (up 53% YoY) [8]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 was RMB 617 million, a 28% increase YoY, with an adjusted net profit margin of 16.6% [8]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 17.6 billion, RMB 22.0 billion, and RMB 26.8 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profits of RMB 2.88 billion, RMB 3.67 billion, and RMB 4.53 billion [4][8]. - The company plans to open 80-100 new stores in the U.S. in 2024, indicating a strong expansion strategy [8]. - The gross profit margin is expected to continue improving due to increased overseas direct sales and optimization of product mix [8]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that MINISO's TOPTOY segment has reached a turning point, with revenue growth of 55% YoY and profitability achieved for two consecutive quarters [8]. - The company is focusing on product innovation and enhancing its instant retail business to sustain same-store sales performance [8]. - MINISO's valuation has been adjusted to a 25x price-to-earnings ratio for 2024, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory [4].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/公用事业 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024年05月20日 [ Table_InvestInfo] 困局一周，电力 6 月大概率向好 [Table_Summary] 投资要点：  地产大涨，电力调整，建议关注业绩持续性。本周电力板块下跌，华能国际-4.9%， 华电国际-4.7%，上证指数-0.2%，万科A+19%，地产板块在政策不断激励下大涨， 煤炭、电力、医药、电新等行业都有调整，我们认为，火电公司调整已超一个 月，下周仍有调整可能：一来煤炭仍在补库，虽然压力已经很小（库存已经很 高），但在需求入夏将改善的趋势下，短期煤价仍可能稳固，二来地产政策或 许还有继续加码的空间，地产板块带动地产链的修复，降低确定收益行业的性 价比，但我们仍认为未来两周或是电力行业的底部，电力板块具备投资价值。  港股龙源电力明显上涨，估值便宜+绿电预期修复。3月欧洲新能源PPA价格改 善（3月欧洲可再生能源 PPA均价为47.4欧元/兆瓦时，环比上涨 9.8%）+跨区 调峰改善新能源消纳，或带动新能源公司反弹，本周龙源电力 H 股继续上涨， 但 A 股新能源估值相对较高，改善较小，我们 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Jianghan New Materials (603281 CH) [11][22]. Core Views - The company is a leading enterprise in functional silanes, with sales volume maintaining rapid growth in Q1 2024, supported by expansion and integration strategies for long-term growth [1]. - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a net profit of Rmb1.45 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.2% [3][11]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 was Rmb22.77 billion, with a year-on-year decline of 31.23%, primarily due to a significant drop in product prices [11][22]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of Rmb25.35 billion, Rmb33.12 billion, Rmb22.77 billion, and Rmb5.87 billion for the years 2021 to Q1 2024, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 86.02%, 30.62%, -31.23%, and 0.98% [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was Rmb6.84 billion, Rmb10.40 billion, Rmb6.55 billion, and Rmb1.54 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 120.43%, 52.16%, -37.05%, and -0.06% [7]. - The company’s gross margin for 2023 was 37.55%, a decrease of 5.14 percentage points year-on-year [11]. Business Segments - The functional silane business is expected to maintain a stable gross margin, projected at 39.42% from 2024 to 2026 [5]. - The company has ongoing projects to expand its functional silane capacity by 60,000 tons per year and intermediate products by 30,000 tons per year, with a green circular industrial park project expected to start production in 2025 [13][22]. Market Position - The company’s market strategy includes enhancing domestic sales, optimizing product structure, and developing new customers, resulting in a significant increase in domestic sales volume [11][13]. - The company has successfully onboarded 169 new customers, including 24 overseas clients, to expand its market reach [11].

Company Overview - Norsyn Crop Technology is a leading domestic pesticide formulation company with a wide range of products, including insecticides, fungicides, and herbicides [2] - The company was founded in June 2006 and listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in August 2022 [2] - As of December 31, 2023, the company and its subsidiaries have obtained a total of 305 pesticide registration documents registered domestically and abroad [2] - The company has a designed production capacity of 3,000 tonnes of insecticide, 2,500 tonnes of fungicide, and 1,450 tonnes of herbicide as of December 31, 2023 [2] Financial Performance - From 2021 to 2024Q1, the company achieved operating revenues of 544 million yuan, 634 million yuan, 606 million yuan, and 149 million yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 13.48%, 16.46%, a decline of 4.44%, and a decline of 6.78%, respectively [2] - The company achieved recurring net profit of 77.3138 million yuan, 79.941 million yuan, 47.9235 million yuan, and 15.0839 million yuan from 2021 to 2024Q1, with year-on-year growth of 10.47%, 3.40%, a decline of 40.24%, and a decline of 9.56%, respectively [2] R&D and Innovation - The company has strengthened its innovative R&D and developed innovative compounds, with R&D expense rates of 3.25%, 4.70%, 6.55%, and 7.15% from 2021 to 2024Q1 [14] - The company successfully applied the innovative compound sterenol to the field of pesticide preparations, which has a virus inhibition function and has been used to develop new products for diseases such as rice black streaked dwarf disease and tobacco mosaic virus disease [14] - The company has Baoying (phenypeptaline acid) products, a new type of plant growth regulator that promotes flowering and improves fruit quality and yield in fruit trees such as apples and citrus [14] Market Expansion and Strategy - The company actively expands upstream raw materials to enhance market competitiveness, with its subsidiary Shaanxi Yijian Yizhi Bioengineering constructing a green pesticide and intermediates R&D base with a total investment of about 450 million yuan [3] - The company adopts a "distribution-based, supplemented by direct sales" sales model, with distribution accounting for over 90% of sales [15] - The company is expanding its international business, with overseas revenue accounting for only 0.91% as of the end of 2023, and holds certificates registered in Myanmar and Vietnam [15] Industry Trends - The pesticide preparation industry is characterized by "small and scattered" enterprises, with stricter regulations and intensified market competition prompting industry consolidation and mergers and acquisitions [3] - Future industry investment opportunities will focus on upstream expansion to obtain bargaining power for raw materials or horizontal mergers and acquisitions to achieve larger market shares [3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the forklift industry, recommending to focus on Anhui Heli and Hangcha Group due to their competitive advantages and market positioning [5]. Core Insights - Forklift sales in April 2024 increased by 23.9% year-on-year, with total sales reaching 123,900 units. Cumulative sales from January to April amounted to 440,000 units, reflecting a 14.4% year-on-year growth. Domestic sales outperformed international sales, with 85,072 units sold domestically (up 30.4% YoY) and 38,804 units exported (up 11.7% YoY) [1][15]. - Domestic forklift manufacturers maintained a high market share, with domestic brands accounting for 94.74% of sales in March 2024. Electric forklifts represented 70.38% of total sales, marking a 9.30 percentage point increase from the previous month [1][15]. - The manufacturing sector's recovery is indicated by PMIs remaining in the expansion zone, with March and April 2024 PMIs at 50.8% and 50.4%, respectively. This suggests a continued recovery in production and market demand [1][16]. Summary by Sections Forklift Sales Data - In April 2024, forklift sales reached 123,900 units, a 23.9% increase YoY. Cumulative sales for the first four months were 440,000 units, up 14.4% YoY. Domestic sales were 85,072 units (30.4% YoY increase), while exports were 38,804 units (11.7% YoY increase) [1][15]. - Domestic brands dominated the market with a 94.74% share in March 2024, and electric forklifts accounted for 70.38% of total sales, reflecting a significant shift towards electrification [1][15]. Macro Economic Indicators - The manufacturing sector shows signs of recovery, with PMIs for March and April 2024 at 50.8% and 50.4%, indicating expansion. The production index for April was 52.9%, suggesting increased manufacturing activity [1][16]. - Profits for large-scale industrial enterprises in Q1 2024 grew by 4.3% YoY, marking a positive turnaround from a decline in the previous year [1][16]. Policy Impact - The Chinese government has initiated equipment upgrade policies aimed at promoting modernization in key industries, which is expected to boost demand for forklifts and related equipment [2][16]. Local governments have also introduced similar initiatives to encourage equipment renewal across various sectors [2][16].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/纺织与服装 证券研究报告 行业周报 2024年05月19日 [Table_InvestInfo] 4 月中国社零整体稳定、美国服装零售增 投资评级 优于大市 维持 长加速，On Running 24Q1 营收高增 市场表现 [Table_Summary] [Table_QuoteInfo] 投资要点：  中国 4 月社零数据整体稳定，穿类网上零售与体育娱乐用品高增。4 月份，中 国社会消费品零售总额同比+2.3%，增速较3月（+3.1%）继续放缓。社零放缓 一方面受到汽车类、建筑及装潢材料类、文化办公用品类等拖累，另一方面受 到假日错月因素影响。综合来看社零数据呈稳步复苏态势。4月份，中国服装鞋 帽、针、纺织品类零售额同比-2.0%，增速较3月（+3.8%）转负，我们分析主 要由去年同期基数（+32.4%）较高引起。1-4 月，中国实物商品网上零售额同 资料来源：HTI 比+11.1%，增速较1-3月（+11.6%）放缓。其中穿类商品网上零售额同比+10.5%， 增速较1-3月（+12.1%）继续放缓，但仍维持双位数增速、体现增长韧性。此 相关研究 外，4月体育、 ...