[Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM 评级 优于大市 OUTPERFORM 现价 Rmb21.11 目标价 Rmb25.42 HTI ESG 4.4-4.6-5.0 E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) 市值 Rmb19.51bn / US$2.68bn 日交易额 (3 个月均值) US$31.44mn 发行股票数目 924.05mn 自由流通股 (%) 57% 1 年股价最高最低值 Rmb24.00-Rmb14.00 注：现价 Rmb21.11 为 2025 年 02 月 07 日收盘价 资料来源： Factset 1mth 3mth 12mth 绝对值 9.7% 0.5% -1.5% 绝对值（美元） 10.3% -1.2% -2.9% 相对 MSCI China 1.2% 3.0% -30.9% [Table_Profit] Rmb mn Dec-23A Dec-24E Dec-25E Dec-26E Revenue 3,898 3,913 5,902 7,161 Revenue ( ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 7 Feb 2025 泛美白银 Pan American Silver (PAAS US) 白银领域翘楚，综合实力雄厚 The world's premier silver producer with solid fundamentals 吴旖婕 Yijie Wu 王曼琪 Manqi Wang lisa.yj.wu@htisec.com mq.wang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis (Please see [Table_summary] APPENDIX 1 for English summary) Pan American Silver 是一家总部位于加拿大温哥华的白银开采公司，也是全球第四大白银生产商。公司拥有并运营位 于加拿大、墨西哥、秘鲁、巴西、玻利维亚、智利和阿根廷的银矿和金矿，以及尚未投入运营的位于危地马拉的 Escobal 矿。公司业务主要集中于拉丁美洲，其资产包括位于墨西哥的 La Colorada 银矿、Dolores 金矿及 La Colorada Skarn ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for Prada, projecting a target price of 81.87 HKD based on a 25X P/E valuation for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights the revitalization of the brand and anticipates growth in performance, driven by strategic adjustments and strong brand management [2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 1913 in Milan, Prada has undergone significant transformations, including a strategic shift since 2016 that has led to a 113% increase in market value from 2018 to 2024 [3][12]. - The company operates three main brands: Prada, MIU MIU, and Church's, with a focus on leather goods and fashion [12][21]. Industry Position - Prada ranks 8th in revenue among major luxury brands, with a revenue of 4.726 billion euros in 2023, and has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% in revenue and 27.3% in net profit from 2019 to 2023 [18][21]. - The company's P/E ratio is positioned at 21.5x in 2023, which is lower compared to peers like Hermès and LVMH, indicating potential for valuation improvement [18][19]. Operational Review - The company has successfully implemented a comprehensive strategic transformation since 2016, including streamlining direct stores and enhancing e-commerce channels, resulting in a recovery in revenue and profitability [28][36]. - The introduction of Raf Simons as co-creative director in 2020 has revitalized the Prada brand, leading to increased brand visibility and sales performance [40][41]. Brand Performance - MIU MIU has evolved into a strong independent brand, with significant growth in brand heat and market presence, particularly among younger demographics [40][52]. - The report notes that both Prada and MIU MIU have seen substantial increases in online engagement and brand ranking, indicating a successful repositioning in the luxury market [47][48]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Projected revenues for Prada are expected to reach 5.444 billion euros in 2024, with net profits forecasted at 824 million euros, reflecting a growth trajectory in the luxury sector [3][36]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of luxury goods, particularly among high-net-worth individuals, suggesting continued demand despite macroeconomic challenges [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for several companies in the food and beverage sector, including Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, and Eastroc Beverage [1]. Core Insights - In January 2025, four out of eight tracked industries showed positive growth, while four experienced negative growth. The industries with single-digit growth included catering, condiments, frozen foods, and soft drinks, whereas sub-premium and above liquor, dairy products, and beer saw single-digit declines. Mass liquor experienced double-digit declines [4][36]. - Despite the Spring Festival, the focus of consumer spending has shifted towards optional consumption areas such as travel and entertainment, putting pressure on mandatory consumption sectors like food and beverage [4][36]. Summary by Category Liquor - **Sub-Premium and Above Liquor**: January revenue was 51 billion, down 6.8% year-on-year. Although there was a slight improvement in consumption around the New Year and Spring Festival, the overall demand remains low, leading to continued negative revenue growth [13]. - **Mass and Below Liquor**: Revenue for January was 22 billion, down 21.4% year-on-year, marking 12 consecutive months of negative growth. The focus remains on inventory reduction and cash preservation [15]. Beer - January revenue for the beer industry was 18.3 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year. The demand during the Spring Festival showed improvement compared to the previous year, aided by favorable weather conditions [18]. Condiments - The condiment industry reported January revenue of 46 billion, up 3.4% year-on-year. Demand remained stable during the holiday season, with strong performance in the catering sector [20]. Dairy Products - January revenue for the dairy industry was 45.5 billion, down 2.2% year-on-year. Sales performance was in line with market expectations, with major manufacturers controlling inventory levels [23]. Frozen Foods - The frozen food industry saw January revenue of 14.5 billion, up 3.2% year-on-year. Traditional frozen products faced weak demand, while pre-prepared dishes performed well [25]. Soft Drinks - January revenue for the soft drink industry was 92.5 billion, up 2.4% year-on-year. The performance was relatively flat due to high base effects from the previous year, with notable differences in product categories [28]. Catering - The catering sector reported total revenue of 16.5 billion in January, up 4.6% year-on-year. However, the performance of chain restaurants showed signs of weakness during the holiday period [30].

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on midstream natural gas companies such as Targa Resources, Kinder Morgan, and Williams Corporation due to their strategic positioning and ability to benefit from strong natural gas demand growth [4][17]. Core View - U.S. LNG capacity remained stable in Q4 2024, with no significant changes in project numbers or total capacity compared to Q3 2024, indicating steady market development [14][15]. - Key project timelines have been adjusted, with several projects transitioning from construction to commissioning, enhancing supply predictability and market confidence [14][15]. - The Texas LNG project's Final Investment Decision (FID) has been postponed to 2025, but this delay is expected to have limited impact on near-to-medium-term market supply [14][15]. Summary by Sections LNG Capacity and Projects - In Q4 2024, major LNG projects such as Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 and Corpus Christi Liquefaction Stage 3 have moved to critical operational phases, with timelines for Golden Pass and Rio Grande LNG projects being accelerated [14][15]. - The U.S. state-to-state natural gas pipeline network saw capacity expansions in 2024, with Equitrans Inc. and Gas Transmission Northwest increasing their maximum throughput capacities significantly [2][15]. Pipeline Expansion and Investment - Starting from 2025, new pipeline capital expenditures are projected to reach $90.9 billion, with an aggregate increase in capacity of 97 Bcf/d, reflecting a robust growth trajectory in natural gas infrastructure [3][16]. - The Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) commenced commercial operations in June 2024, serving as a critical connection for shale gas resources to major markets [2][15]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the investment potential in midstream natural gas companies, emphasizing their strategic asset layouts and the benefits from ongoing infrastructure investments [4][17].

Core Insights - Meta's advertising business showed strong performance, with Q4 2024 revenue reaching $48.385 billion, a 21% year-over-year increase, and net profit of $20.838 billion, up 49% [3] - Microsoft's cloud computing segment experienced a slowdown, with Q2 revenue of $69.632 billion, a 12% year-over-year growth, but below market expectations [4] - Both companies are increasing capital expenditures (Capex) to support AI development, with Meta planning to raise Capex to $60-65 billion [3][4] Meta Analysis - Meta's advertising revenue was $46.783 billion, accounting for 97% of total revenue, while its Reality Labs segment incurred an operating loss of $4.967 billion [3] - The growth in Meta's advertising business is attributed to the application of AI technology, enhancing ad effectiveness and user engagement [3][8] - Meta's Q1 2025 revenue guidance is between $39.5 billion and $41.8 billion, reflecting an 8% to 15% year-over-year growth [3] Microsoft Analysis - Microsoft's Intelligent Cloud segment, including Azure, generated $25.54 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase, but fell short of market expectations [4] - Azure's revenue growth slowed to 31%, down from 33% in the previous quarter [4] - Microsoft continues to invest heavily in AI, with an additional $750 million investment in OpenAI, bringing total investments close to $14 billion [4] Capital Expenditure Insights - The report suggests that increased efficiency in AI will lead to greater returns on investment, potentially driving higher Capex rather than reducing it [5][9] - Capex decisions are influenced more by payment capabilities than by cost or set goals, indicating a competitive landscape [5][9] - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to accommodate various large models, leading to increased demand for AI Data Cloud Services [5][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sinofert Holdings is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook based on expected profit growth and strategic initiatives. Core Insights - The profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is expected to be between RMB 1.01 billion and RMB 1.11 billion, with a solid growth forecast when excluding certain impairments [2][4] - The company is steadily promoting its "Bio+" strategy, focusing on technological innovation and enhancing operational management, which has led to increased production and sales of bio-fertilizers [2][5] - The growth in the company's operating results is attributed to the successful implementation of the "Bio+" strategy and improvements in supply chain management [4][6] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The expected profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is projected to be between RMB 1.01 billion and RMB 1.11 billion, with a potential adjusted profit range of RMB 1.18 billion to RMB 1.28 billion, indicating robust growth compared to RMB 1.149 billion in 2023 [2][4] - The company's growth business revenue for 2022, 2023, and the first half of 2024 were RMB 7.441 billion, RMB 7.845 billion, and RMB 5.555 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.43% and 5.25% [5][6] Strategic Initiatives - The "Bio+" strategy aims to position the company as a leader in bio-fertilizer and soil health innovation, supported by a strong research platform and new product development [5][6] - The company has launched new products such as Lanlin, Yaxin, and Kodafon, contributing to high-speed business growth [5][6] Research and Development - In the first half of 2024, the company tackled nine key technologies and completed trial production of four key products, achieving a transformation volume of 886,000 tonnes [6][7] - The company is enhancing its R&D capabilities and has established a team led by three chief scientists to focus on biotechnology and soil health [6][7] Synergistic Collaborations - As a subsidiary of Syngenta Group, the company benefits from collaborative projects that enhance product competitiveness, including the establishment of a Plant Protection and Nutrition Centre [7] - The company achieved synergistic revenue of RMB 240 million from plant protection in the first half of 2024, with a three-year compound growth rate of 21% [7]

Investment Focus - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised the policy rate from 0.25% to 0.5% on January 24, marking the third rate hike since the end of negative interest rates in March last year, bringing the rate back to a 30-year high [3][18] - The new rate will take effect from January 27, 2025, and is the highest level since September 1995 [3][18] - The BOJ significantly increased its inflation forecast for the fiscal year 2025, raising the core CPI prediction by 0.5% to 2.4% [3][4] Economic Growth and Inflation Forecast - The actual GDP growth and core CPI forecasts for Japan are as follows: - FY 2024: GDP growth at 0.5%, core CPI at 2.7% - FY 2025: GDP growth at 1.1%, core CPI at 2.4% - FY 2026: GDP growth at 1.0%, core CPI at 2.0% [4] Market Reactions - The rate hike was in line with market expectations, with over 90% of the market anticipating the increase prior to the announcement [6] - Following the announcement, the Japanese stock market experienced slight fluctuations, but the overall sentiment remained stable [6][10] Future Rate Hikes - There is a high probability of another rate hike of 0.25% in the summer of 2025, as the BOJ believes that Japan still faces upward pressure on import prices [8][10] - The BOJ's current policy rate is still below the neutral rate, indicating potential for further increases if economic conditions align with expectations [8] Consumer Spending and Wage Growth - Real wages in Japan showed a year-on-year increase of 0.5% in November, marking the first positive growth in four months, which supports consumer spending recovery [9] - The BOJ noted that wage increases are becoming a common consensus in Japanese society, which is expected to bolster consumer spending [9] Stock Market Impact - The BOJ's rate hike is seen as a positive signal for the Japanese stock market, particularly for domestic demand-related sectors, as it enhances confidence in Japan's economic recovery from deflation [10] - The report anticipates increased capital investment by Japanese companies, which could improve future profitability [10]

Macro Environment - Real wages rose by 0.5% year-on-year in November, with total cash payrolls increasing by 3.9% year-on-year [2][7] - The Consumer Confidence Index for December was 36.2, a decrease of 0.2 from the previous month [2][9] - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, the highest level since 2008 [2][9] - December CPI increased by 3.6% year-on-year, up from 2.9% previously, with core CPI rising by 2.5% for the full year of 2024 [2][9] Industry Overview - The year-end holidays significantly boosted consumer demand, with increased travel and spending from both domestic and foreign tourists [3][16] - In the staples sector, Pan Pacific International Holdings led with strong unit price growth, while the soft drink sector experienced an overall decline in sales due to price increases [3][84] - In discretionary spending, dining and apparel expenditures continued to rise, with Sukiya and Uniqlo showing the highest same-store sales growth in December [3][84] Staples Companies - In December, same-store sales for PPIH, AEON, and 711 Japan were up by 5.8%, 2.6%, and 1.3% year-on-year respectively [4][85] - Drugstore sales for Matsukiyo Cocokara and Welcia both increased by 6.1% year-on-year [4][85] - The soft drink sector saw a decline in sales volumes, with major brands like Suntory, Kirin, and Asahi reporting a 4% drop [4][85] Discretionary Companies - December same-store sales for restaurants such as Sukiya and Saizeriya increased by 16.7% and 16.4% year-on-year respectively [5][86] - Apparel sales also saw significant growth, with Uniqlo reporting a 15.3% increase in same-store sales [5][86] - Duty-free sales in December rose by 31.3% year-on-year, with the number of customers increasing by 36.6% [5][86] Equity Market - Most consumer sub-sectors saw gains in December, with textiles and apparel leading at 3.5% and 2.8% respectively [6][87] - In the staples sector, home goods and personal care products rose by 1.7% and 1.5% respectively, while beer sales fell by 0.9% [6][87] - Retail and food & beverage ETFs experienced net inflows of $29.67 million and $10.34 million respectively [6][87] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with optimistic profit improvement prospects, including ASICS, benefiting from improved pricing and product mix [88] - Pan Pacific International Holdings continues to show strong same-store sales growth [88] - Fast Retailing Group is experiencing rapid growth in international business alongside strong local sales [88]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive investment rating, indicating a strong expected growth in net profit for the company in 2024 [1]. Core Insights - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company is projected to increase by 152.58% to 199.94% year-on-year, with an expected range of RMB 800 million to RMB 950 million [2][4]. - The company aims to enhance its technological innovation and integrated industrial chain advantages, providing competitive new material solutions to global customers [2][4]. - The modified plastics and special engineering plastics sectors have shown stable growth in sales and gross profit across various industries, including automotive and consumer electronics [2][4]. - The green petrochemical sector is improving its operational quality through better integration with the modified plastics sector, leading to enhanced production efficiency [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The expected net profit for 2024 is between RMB 800 million and RMB 950 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 152.58% to 199.94%. The net profit after non-recurring items is projected to be between RMB 771 million and RMB 921 million, reflecting a growth of 288.43% to 364.00% [2][4]. Business Strategy - The company is focusing on technological innovation and enhancing its integrated industrial chain to improve competitiveness and market share [2][4]. - Efforts are being made to optimize product structure and improve production capacity utilization in the green petrochemical sector [2][4]. Market Position - The company has established itself as a leader in the special engineering plastics field, with a diverse product range including PA10T, PA9T, PA6T, LCP, and PPSU [2][6]. - The company is expanding its overseas operations, with significant growth in sales volume from its international bases, achieving a 28.55% increase in finished product sales in the first half of 2024 [2][7]. Product Development - The company has developed new materials suitable for robotics, including continuous carbon fiber reinforced composites and special engineering plastics [2][6]. - A new production facility for PPSU/PES synthetic resin has been successfully tested, and the LCP synthetic resin project is on track for production in Q4 2024 [2][6].