Fiscal Policy Overview - In 2024, the fiscal policy focused on debt reduction while also showing effectiveness in expanding domestic demand through various tools[3] - The central government's debt issuance scale is expected to moderately increase in 2025, with a budget deficit rate projected to rise to around 3.5%-4%[3][60] - Special bonds are anticipated to expand from 3.9 trillion yuan in 2024 to approximately 4.5 trillion yuan in 2025[3][60] Consumption and Investment Support - The "old-for-new" policy is likely to continue and expand in 2025, with a target to increase the recycling of scrapped vehicles by 50% and household appliances by 15% compared to 2023[4][29] - The government plans to allocate around 1.5 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" subsidy, which could boost retail sales growth by 0.45-0.6 percentage points[61] - Equipment updates in key sectors are expected to see increased investment, with a projected growth of over 25% in industrial equipment investment by 2027[62] Infrastructure and Risk Management - The issuance of special bonds is likely to continue, with over 1 trillion yuan expected to support "two new" and "two heavy" projects[3][60] - The focus on "two heavy" construction projects will include significant infrastructure investments in areas such as food security and energy security[56] - Additional special bonds may be issued to inject capital into banks, ensuring financial stability and supporting real estate and vulnerable groups[63]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation industry, but it suggests focusing on specific companies within the aviation and express delivery sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these areas [6][66]. Core Insights - The transportation index decreased by 0.1% from December 9 to December 13, 2024, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.4%. Notable subsector performances included bus (+6.4%), express delivery (+1.4%), and warehousing logistics (+0.1%) [3][35]. - The 2024 Digital Transportation Conference highlighted the integration of new technologies in transportation, aiming to enhance productivity and stimulate industry momentum [50][55]. - The shipping sector is experiencing fluctuations, with the SCFI index rising by 5.7% while the BDI index fell by 9.9% during the same period [64][40]. Weekly Market Review - The transportation index from December 9 to December 13, 2024, showed a decline of 0.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.4%. The performance of various subsectors included: - Bus: +6.4% - Express Delivery: +1.4% - Warehousing Logistics: +0.1% - Air Transport: +0.1% - Highway: 0.0% - Shipping: -0.3% - Cross-border Logistics: -0.4% - Port: -1.0% - Railway Transport: -1.2% - Road Freight: -1.7% [3][35]. Shipping Observations - As of December 13, 2024, the SCFI index was at 2384.4, up 5.7% from the previous week, while the BDI was at 1051, down 9.9% [64][41]. - The oil transport sector is expected to see a rise in profit margins due to tight supply-demand conditions, with limited new supply expected [68]. Recent Highlights - The 2024 Digital Transportation Conference focused on the integration of digital technologies in transportation, aiming to enhance productivity and industry momentum [50][55]. - Significant developments in shipping infrastructure were noted, including the completion of nearly half of the lock construction at the Pinglu Canal [65][54]. Investment Strategy - In the aviation sector, there is an expectation of increased demand for international travel in 2024, driven by improved international relations and visa policies. The report suggests focusing on companies like Spring Airlines, Hainan Airlines Holding, and Juneyao Airlines [66][69]. - For express delivery, the report notes a decline in average selling prices for major companies, indicating a need for strategic adjustments [67]. - The highway sector is highlighted for its defensive attributes and investment value, particularly in the context of a weak economic recovery [69].

[Table_MainInfo] Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观专题报告 2024-12-17 生产稳定，需求偏弱 ——2024 年 11 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 总体来看，11 月生产端相对稳定，但需求端略有波折。11 月内需出现一些 扰动，其中消费受促销季和消费补贴前置分流的影响，同比增速有所回落， 制造业和基建投资则受政策接续空档期的影响也小幅边际走弱。不过政策支 撑较强的板块，如地产投资、地产链的消费、汽车生产等仍表现亮眼，地产 对经济的拖累有所减弱，高端制造仍是经济的主要支撑。我们认为，新一轮 增量政策在四季度逐步落地见效，在其支撑下，全年完成经济目标的难度不 大，明年或可期待更大力度的政策落地。 风险提示：外需超预期回落，稳增长政策效果不及预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 宏观研究—宏观专题报告 2 日 录 | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the company, indicating strong growth potential in the precision machining sector, particularly in linear motion components [2]. Core Insights - The company, Best, has established itself as a hidden champion in precision machining, focusing on high-quality components and intelligent equipment, with a strategic layout across three industrial tiers [5][7]. - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1.343 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.42%, with automotive parts contributing 1.203 billion yuan, a 19.5% increase [5]. - The report highlights the company's robust growth trajectory, with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.52% in revenue and 10.66% in net profit margin from 2018 to 2023 [22][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Best was founded in 1997 and has focused on the research, production, and sales of precision components and intelligent equipment, expanding into high-end aerospace manufacturing and industrial automation [5][6]. 2. Three-Tier Industrial Strategy - The company’s business is divided into three main segments: 1. Existing precision components and intelligent equipment [7]. 2. New energy vehicle components, focusing on lightweight structural parts and high-value precision components [13]. 3. Linear motion components, targeting high-precision ball and roller screw pairs and guides [17][18]. 3. Financial Performance - The company maintains a high profitability level, with gross margins above 30% and net margins around 20%, benefiting from strong precision machining capabilities [27][33]. - The financial expenses have decreased, with a financial expense ratio dropping from 0.41% in 2023 to -0.47% in Q1-Q3 2024, attributed to the redemption of convertible bonds [27]. 4. Customer Base and Market Position - The company has established long-term relationships with major clients in the automotive sector, with the top five customers accounting for 78.81% of revenue in 2023 [40]. - Best is actively expanding its international presence, including investments in Thailand to enhance production capacity and competitiveness [68]. 5. Growth in New Energy Vehicle Components - The new energy vehicle segment has seen rapid revenue growth, with a 64.7% year-on-year increase in 2023, supported by the establishment of a new factory in Anhui [13][76]. 6. Linear Motion Components Market - The report emphasizes the broad application of linear motion components, with a focus on domestic substitution opportunities as the market evolves [4][88]. - The global market for ball screws is projected to reach 13.6 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 6.1% expected until 2030 [88].

Market Trends and Interest Rate Analysis - US Treasury yields experienced significant volatility in 2024, with long-term yields rising over 80BP from January to April, then falling over 140BP from April to September, and rising again over 80BP from September to November[9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated between 3.6% and 4.8% throughout 2024, with notable peaks in April and November[10] - US Treasury volatility index remained elevated throughout 2024, particularly during economic uncertainty periods, reaching levels comparable to past crises like the 2008 financial crisis[11][12] Interest Rate Decomposition - Long-term US Treasury yield movements were primarily driven by real interest rates, contributing approximately 70% of the nominal yield changes[14][15] - Inflation expectations played a secondary role in yield fluctuations, with 10-year inflation expectations ranging between 2.0% and 2.35% throughout 2024[16][23] - Term premium contributed significantly to yield movements, particularly during periods of economic policy uncertainty, with real term premium increasing by nearly 40BP from September to November[28][29] Economic and Policy Factors - US economic indicators showed mixed signals, with strong Q1 performance (PMI above 50) followed by weakening in Q2-Q3 (PMI below 48)[19][20] - Federal Reserve policy shifts significantly impacted yields, with a 50BP rate cut in September and market expectations of 2 rate cuts in 2025[21][49] - Trump's election prospects and potential policy changes contributed to increased inflation expectations and term premium volatility in late 2024[22][36] Market Expectations and Projections - Market expectations for Fed rate cuts fluctuated dramatically, with 100BP cut probability dropping from 100% in October to 50% by November[33][34] - ARDL model projections suggest 10-year Treasury yields in 2025 could range between 3.5%-4.5% in neutral scenarios, with potential for 4.5%-5.5% in pessimistic scenarios[50] - US household financial health remains strong, with net worth reaching $163.8 trillion in Q2 2024 and mortgage payments at 5.9% of disposable income, similar to pre-pandemic levels[41][42]

[Table_MainInfo] Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观快报点评 2024-12-17 中央财政发力，收入继续改善 ——2024 年 11 月财政数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 一般公共预算收入增速回升。2024 年 1-11 月，一般公共预算收入同比下 降 0.6%，完成全年预算的 91.6%。其中，11 月份，一般公共预算收入当 月同比增速 11%，相比 10 月增速 5.5%明显回升。究其原因，经济阶段性 改善使得税收收入回升，非税收收入高位运行对财政收入也有所支撑。 一般公共预算支出增速边际回落，但进度平稳。2024 年 1-11 月，一般公 共预算支出同比增长 2.8%。其中，11 月当月增速 3.8%，相比 10 月增速 10.4%明显回落。值得关注的是，中央层面支出增速大幅回升；地方层面 增速虽然有所回落。此外，2024 年前 11 个月，一般公共预算支出进度较 为平稳。从分项看，一方面，财政对基建项目的支持增强。其中，农林 水支出维持较高增速，交通运输、城乡社区支出增速仍然保持正增长。 另一方面 ...

Key Points - The report indicates a net inflow of 26.1 billion Yuan last week, an increase from the previous week's inflow of 21.7 billion Yuan [3][5]. - The report highlights that the financing balance increased by 2.08 billion Yuan, up from 1.95 billion Yuan the previous week [5]. - The issuance of equity funds reached 4.6 billion Yuan last week, compared to 2.8 billion Yuan the week before [5]. - The net inflow of ETFs was 16.7 billion Yuan, rising from 12.2 billion Yuan in the previous week [5]. - The estimated net inflow from northbound capital was a negative 1.2 billion Yuan, down from a positive 4.8 billion Yuan the previous week [5][15]. - The report notes that the IPO financing scale was 1.9 billion Yuan last week, an increase from 1.1 billion Yuan the previous week [28]. - The net reduction of industrial capital was 3 billion Yuan, significantly lower than the previous week's reduction of 7.8 billion Yuan [31]. - Trading fees amounted to 9.8 billion Yuan last week, compared to 8.7 billion Yuan the week before [34]. Market Sentiment Indicators - The weekly turnover rate was 649%, placing it in the 90th percentile historically since 2005, while the previous week was at 576% in the 88th percentile [6][41]. - The proportion of financing transactions was 9.37%, which is in the 69th percentile historically since 2013 [6][41]. - The risk premium rate was 3.51, in the 18th percentile historically since 2005, compared to 3.33 in the previous week [6][41]. - The stock-bond yield ratio was 1.45, in the 0th percentile historically since 2005 [6][41]. Fund Positioning - The stock fund's position was 86.5%, a slight decrease from 86.8% the previous week [50]. - The mixed fund's position was 65.5%, down from 66.0% the previous week [50]. - The equity-mixed fund's position was 80.6%, a decrease from 81.1% the previous week [50].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [2][8]. Core Insights - The National Medical Security Work Conference held on December 14, 2024, outlined key tasks for 2025, focusing on optimizing medical insurance payment mechanisms and enhancing strategic purchasing for innovative drugs [2][3][4]. - Key tasks for 2025 include strengthening fund management to ensure safety, improving multi-level medical security, empowering public health, optimizing payment mechanisms, enhancing strategic purchasing, reforming drug pricing, strengthening fund supervision, and optimizing management services [3][4][5][8]. Summary by Sections - **Industry News**: The conference summarized 2024's work and planned for 2025, emphasizing the importance of fund management and multi-level medical security [2][8]. - **Key Tasks**: 1. Strengthen fund management to prevent deficits and ensure safety [3]. 2. Improve multi-level medical security to meet diverse needs and support commercial health insurance [3]. 3. Empower public health by establishing a long-term care insurance system and expanding maternity insurance coverage [3]. 4. Optimize payment mechanisms and explore synchronized settlement with commercial insurance [4]. 5. Enhance strategic purchasing to include more innovative drugs in the National Reimbursement Drug List [4]. 6. Reform drug pricing and establish a price index [5]. 7. Strengthen fund supervision using big data for compliance [5]. 8. Optimize management services to improve cross-province settlement [5][8].

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/医药与健康护理 证券研究报告 行业信息点评 Wenbin He wenbin.he@htisec.com Wenxin Yu wenxin Yu wenxin.yu@htisec.com 2025 年医保重点工作：优化医保支付机 制，强化医保战略购买，研究探索形成 药品丙类目录 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行业新闻：2024 年 12 月 14 日，全国医疗保障工作会议在北京召开，总结 2024 年医保工作，部署 2025 年工作。 2025 年医保重点工作包括以下八个方面： 一是加强医保基金运行管理，坚决守住医保基金安全底线。坚持以收定支、收 支平衡、略有结余，严格基金全流程管理，确保基金应收尽收、应付尽付、账 实相符，坚决防范医保基金当期赤字。 二是健全多层次医疗保障体系，满足群众多元化医疗保障需求。构建以全国统 一的医保信息平台和医保大数据为支撑的医保基础设施及核心服务能力，完善 基本医保三重保障制度梯次减负功能，积极支持商业健康保险与基本医保差异 化发展，推进慈善等其他保障力量发展。 三是顺应人民群众新期待，持续赋能群众健康。加快建立中国特色 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "OUTPERFORM" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 64.35 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.589 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 106 million, up 10.60% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 22.01% [2][16]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 631 million, a 60.90% increase year-on-year and a 27.36% increase quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same quarter was RMB 41 million, up 40.67% year-on-year [2][16]. - The company focuses on the design, development, and manufacturing of connection system products, which are widely used in various sectors including data communication, new energy vehicles, and industrial control [3][18]. Financial Performance - The company’s R&D expenses for the first three quarters of 2024 were RMB 111 million, a 29.91% increase year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 7.00% [3][17]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is RMB 185 million, RMB 241 million, and RMB 291 million, with corresponding EPS of RMB 1.17, RMB 1.52, and RMB 1.84 [4][19]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in the AI sector, particularly in high-speed cable solutions, which positions it favorably in the market [4][19]. Business Segmentation - The company’s product offerings include connectors, cable assemblies, and system modules, which are essential for various applications such as AI data centers and high-speed transmission solutions [3][18]. - The revenue forecast for the company's segments shows significant growth potential, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, which is expected to grow at a rate of 50% in 2024 [9].