Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for JD com Inc with a target price of HKD 195 per share, implying a 28% upside [9][89] Core Views - JD com reported strong 3Q24 results with revenue of RMB 260 4 billion, up 5 1% YoY, and Non GAAP net profit of RMB 13 2 billion, up 23 9% YoY [2][4] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 17 3%, up 1 7 percentage points YoY, driven by supply chain optimization and operational efficiency [4][8] - JD com's 3P ecosystem showed significant improvement, with third party merchant users growing over 20% YoY and order volume increasing over 30% YoY [4][18] Financial Performance - 3Q24 revenue breakdown: Direct sales revenue was RMB 204 6 billion, with household appliances and 3C up 2 7% YoY, and fast moving consumer goods up 8 0% YoY [5][19] - Service revenue grew 6 5% YoY to RMB 55 8 billion, with platform and advertising revenue up 6 3% YoY and logistics and other services up 6 5% YoY [5][20] - The company's Non GAAP net profit margin improved to 5 1%, up 0 8 percentage points YoY [8] Share Repurchase - JD com repurchased 31 0 million Class A shares totaling USD 390 million between June 30 and September 30, 2024, representing 1 1% of outstanding shares [3][17] - A new share repurchase program was adopted in September 2024, allowing the company to repurchase up to USD 5 billion worth of shares over the next 36 months [3][17] Business Segments - JD Retail's operating profit margin remained stable at 5 2% YoY, while JD Logistics' operating profit margin improved significantly to 4 7%, up 4 0 percentage points YoY [8] - The company's core categories, including 3C and household appliances, showed improved YoY growth, while supermarket and apparel categories achieved double digit growth [4][18] Valuation and Forecast - The report estimates JD com's 2024 2026 Non GAAP net profit at RMB 45 1 billion, RMB 46 6 billion, and RMB 50 4 billion, respectively [9][20] - A sum of the parts valuation approach was used, assigning a 14x PE multiple to the retail business for 2025 and valuing subsidiaries based on their latest post investment valuations [9][20] - The target price of HKD 195 per share implies a 2025E market capitalization of HKD 620 1 billion [9]

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/纺织与服装 证券研究报告 行业周报 Xiaorui Hu amber.xr.hu@htisec.com [Table_InvestInfo] 多地接力家纺国补政策，Dick's Sporting Goods 上调全年业绩指引 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 多地接力家纺国补政策，京东国补范围涵盖母婴服饰用品。本周多地接力家纺 产品焕新国家补贴政策，11 月 25 日，江苏省南京市宣布新增家纺类产品参与家 装家居改造补贴活动，按照产品成交价的 15%给予补贴，每户不超过 30000 元； 11 月 26 日，吉林省辽源市启动家装家居产品换新补贴活动，产品范围包含家纺 用品，按照产品成交价的 15%给予补贴，每类产品补贴不超过 2000 元，每位消 费者不超过 15000 元。近期，湖州、南通等多地查处羽绒服、羽绒被"以次充好" 情况。当前羽绒价格持续高位运行，我们认为在政府补贴覆盖面逐步扩大、市 场进一步规范之下，具备品牌与规模优势的优质家纺、羽绒服龙头企业有望受 益。此外，本周京东平台国家补贴品类已拓宽至婴童睡袋、婴童连体衣、月子 服等服饰产品，英氏婴童 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 23.86 per share and a reasonable market capitalization of RMB 213 billion [4][16][24]. Core Insights - The company is reallocating RMB 150 million from its convertible bond funds to the "High-end Casting Base Project," terminating the "NEV Construction Project" and "Smart Factory Phase II Project" [2][21]. - The acquisition of 65.15% of "Good Luck Machinery" and 51% of "Anxin Forks" is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness and revenue, reducing related transactions and optimizing governance [3][22][23]. - The high-end casting project aims for an annual production capacity of 200,000 tons, supporting the company's growth during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans [3][22]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 178.50 billion, RMB 201.84 billion, and RMB 226.25 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.17%, 13.08%, and 12.09% [4][19]. - Net profit is expected to reach RMB 14.17 billion, RMB 16.62 billion, and RMB 19.32 billion for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 10.85%, 17.33%, and 16.21% [4][19]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve to 22.3% by 2024, maintaining this level through 2026 [5][19]. Business Segmentation - The forklift and parts business is expected to generate revenues of RMB 176.52 billion, RMB 199.47 billion, and RMB 223.41 billion from 2024 to 2026, with a stable gross margin of 22% [13][15]. - Other business segments are anticipated to grow at a rate of 20% annually, maintaining a gross margin of 45% [14][15]. Market Trends - The forklift industry is expected to maintain a growth trend, with domestic sales projected to show resilience despite external pressures, while exports are anticipated to grow significantly [8][10]. - The shift towards automation in manufacturing is expected to drive demand for forklifts, particularly in the context of smart logistics and warehousing [12][10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the company [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company specializes in fluorine-containing fine chemicals and has established a complete product chain for chlorotoluene and trifluoromethylbenzene series products, positioning itself as a high-tech enterprise and a national specialized "small giant" [1][5]. - The company has successfully developed a complete process synthesis chain using toluene as the starting raw material, achieving self-sufficiency in key intermediates and ensuring large-scale production [2][6]. - The overall market demand in the first half of 2024 was weaker compared to the same period in 2023, with sales of trifluoromethylbenzene series products decreasing by 14.34% year-on-year, while chlorotoluene series products saw an increase in sales by 18.15% [2][7]. - New production capacities are being released progressively, with several projects nearing completion, including an annual output of 22,200 tons of fluorine-containing new materials and new functional chemicals [3][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on the field of fluorine-containing fine chemicals and has developed a complete product chain for chlorotoluene and trifluoromethylbenzene series products [1][5]. Production and Cost Efficiency - The company has innovatively adopted continuous production processes, which have replaced traditional batch production methods, leading to reduced costs per unit of product [2][6]. Market Demand and Sales Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company sold 17,210.19 tons of trifluoromethylbenzene series products, a decrease of 14.34% year-on-year, while chlorotoluene series products sold 17,035.88 tons, an increase of 18.15% [2][7]. Capacity Expansion - The company has completed several fundraising projects, including the construction of workshops that will significantly increase production capacity for various chemical products [3][8].

Investment Rating - Maintain OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of USD 25.20 [1] - Current price is USD 20.01 as of November 29, 2024 [1] - Market capitalization stands at USD 6.25 billion [1] Core Views - The company has passed its trough, and the positive guidance reflects management's confidence [1] - Domestic revenue for the Miniso brand grew by 6% YoY, reaching RMB 2.44 billion [1] - Overseas revenue surged by 40% YoY to RMB 1.81 billion, with 183 net new stores added QoQ [1] - The company expects Q4 revenue growth of 25%-30%, driven by strong performance in both domestic and international markets [1] Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached RMB 4.52 billion, up 19% YoY [1] - Adjusted net profit was RMB 686 million, a 7% YoY increase, with an adjusted net profit margin of 15.2% [1] - Gross profit margin hit a record high of 44.9%, up 3.1 percentage points YoY [1] - Sales and distribution expense ratio increased to 22%, primarily due to higher costs associated with directly operated stores [1] Domestic Operations - Domestic revenue grew by 9% YoY to RMB 2.71 billion [1] - The company added 135 net new stores in Q3, bringing the total to 4,250 stores in China [1] - O2O business grew nearly 80% YoY, contributing 7%-8% of domestic revenue [1] - TOPTOY, the company's sub-brand, achieved a 50% YoY revenue growth and has been profitable for four consecutive quarters [1] International Expansion - Overseas revenue grew by 40% YoY, with 183 net new stores added in Q3 [1] - The company raised its 2024 store opening guidance to 650-700 stores, up from the previous 550-650 [1] - North American operations have stabilized, with cost structure optimization underway [1] - Local sourcing in the US has reached 30%, with further room for improvement [1] Valuation and Forecast - Revenue for 2024-26 is projected to be RMB 17.2/21.6/25.6 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 2.80/3.53/4.23 billion [1] - The company is valued at 20x 2024 PE, with a target price of USD 25.2 [1] - Q4 revenue is expected to grow by 29% YoY to RMB 4.94 billion, with adjusted net profit of RMB 880 million [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on O2O, IP-driven products, and precise marketing to boost same-store sales [1] - A new store matrix strategy, including MINISO Land and flagship stores, has been introduced to cater to different customer segments [1] - The acquisition of a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Superstores is progressing as expected, with the deal set to close in Q1 2025 [3]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ASEAN region is the fifth largest retail market globally, with a retail scale of $648.2 billion in 2023, growing at a CAGR of 3.8% from 2015 to 2023, surpassing the global average of 3.3% [18][19] - The e-commerce retail scale in ASEAN reached $124 billion in 2023, ranking sixth globally, with a remarkable CAGR of 40% from 2015 to 2023, significantly higher than the global average of 16% [18][19] - The e-commerce penetration rate in ASEAN increased by 15 percentage points from 2018 to 2023, indicating substantial growth potential [25][29] Summary by Sections 1. Overview: Rapid Growth of E-commerce Channels - ASEAN's retail market is the fifth largest globally, with a retail scale of $648.2 billion in 2023, accounting for 4% of the global total [18] - The e-commerce retail scale in ASEAN is $124 billion, representing 3% of the global total, with a CAGR of 40% from 2015 to 2023 [18][19] - The major six countries in ASEAN account for 97% of the total retail scale, with Indonesia being the largest contributor [19][20] 2. E-commerce Competitive Factors: Supply Chain as a Core Barrier - The e-commerce scale in the major six ASEAN countries grew from $12.5 billion in 2016 to $38.4 billion in 2019, with a CAGR of 45.37% [34] - Shopee maintains the largest market share in the major six ASEAN countries, with a 32% market share in 2023 [44] - The competition in e-commerce is driven by supply chain capabilities, which are essential for increasing market share [34][44] 3. Major Platform Analysis - Shopee's total revenue in 2023 was $13.1 billion, with e-commerce accounting for 70% of this revenue [4] - Lazada's market share decreased from 19% in 2018 to 15% in 2023, despite maintaining positive order growth [4] - TikTok Shop achieved a remarkable CAGR of 203% from 2021 to 2023, reaching a business scale of $5.2 billion in the major six ASEAN countries [4][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2] Core Viewpoints - NVIDIA unveiled the GB200 NVL4 superchip and H200 NVL at the 2024 USA Supercomputing Conference (SC24) [10] - The GB200 NVL4 superchip integrates four Blackwell GPUs and two Grace CPUs, offering up to 2x performance for scientific computing, training, and inference, with availability expected in late 2025 [10][19] - The H200 NVL, based on Hopper architecture, is designed for low-power, air-cooled data centers, offering 1.5x memory and 1.2x bandwidth increase over H100 NVL, enabling large language model fine-tuning in hours and a 1.7x inference performance boost [11][20] - NVIDIA is collaborating with Foxconn to scale production in the USA, Mexico, and Taiwan, leveraging the NVIDIA Omniverse platform to accelerate factory setup and reduce costs, with Foxconn expecting significant cost savings and over 30% power reduction annually at its Mexico plant [12][21] - The report recommends continued monitoring of the AI server industry chain as the Blackwell series ramps up [12][22] Industry Insights - The GB200 NVL4 superchip is expected to significantly enhance performance for AI and scientific computing applications, with a focus on training and inference [10][19] - The H200 NVL is tailored for data centers with flexible configurations, particularly those using air cooling, which accounts for about 70% of enterprise racks [11][20] - Foxconn's use of NVIDIA Omniverse for virtual integration and testing is expected to optimize production efficiency and reduce costs, particularly in its Mexico facility [12][21]

Group 1: China Energy Market Updates - The LNG import price in China increased to $15.59 per million British thermal units, up 12.97% from the previous week, while the market price rose to 4,481 yuan per million British thermal units, an increase of 2.54% [16][19]. - In October, China's total electricity consumption reached 774.2 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [16]. - In October, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 20.89 GW, representing a 50% year-on-year increase [16]. - Wind power installations from January to October 2024 reached 45.8 GW, a nearly 23% increase year-on-year [16]. - The total investment in the power grid is expected to approach 600 billion yuan for the year, marking a record high [16]. Group 2: U.S. Energy Market Updates - U.S. natural gas futures prices surged significantly, with natural gas inventories declining week-on-week [2]. - CEG has called for new regulations to directly connect customers with power plants [2]. - A subsidiary of Canadian Solar invested approximately $712 million to build a battery factory in Kentucky [2]. - The U.S. IRS and Treasury released final guidelines clarifying that direct payment incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act apply to jointly owned clean energy projects [2]. - Massachusetts' legislature passed a clean energy bill allocating $200 million for offshore wind investment [2]. Group 3: European Energy Market Updates - European natural gas futures prices continued to rise, with inventories decreasing week-on-week [2]. - The average spot price of thermal coal at three major international ports decreased, while electricity market prices in Europe showed a downward trend [2]. - Romania launched a €150 million subsidy program for energy storage systems [2]. - The Dutch parliament approved a gradual phase-out of net metering policy starting in 2027 [2]. - Siemens Gamesa successfully installed the last SG 14-222 DD wind turbine at the Moray West project in Scotland, which has a capacity of 882 MW [2]. Group 4: Indian Energy Market Updates - Following bribery allegations against Gautam Adani, S&P Global adjusted the outlook for Adani Power and Adani Ports to "negative" [3]. - India plans to impose anti-dumping duties on large-sized photovoltaic glass from China and Vietnam [3]. - In the first nine months of 2024, India added 16.4 GW of solar capacity, a 167% increase compared to the same period in 2023 [3]. - Hyundai Motor India partnered with FPEL to build a wind and solar power plant in Tamil Nadu with a total capacity of 118 MW [3]. Group 5: Southeast Asia and Other Regions - Vietnam's largest LNG series development project has been signed and initiated [4]. - The Philippines' Department of Energy announced the construction of the country's largest single-site solar and battery storage facility [4]. - Southeast Asia's largest integrated solar and storage EPC project has been signed [4].

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report indicates that the cross-year market rally often occurs due to the performance vacuum at year-end and the significant meeting windows, with the timing and magnitude of the rally varying greatly [2][3] - The conditions for initiating a cross-year rally include improvements in the fundamental economy, liquidity easing, and policy catalysts, with the strength of the rally depending on the robustness of these driving factors and the prior market environment [4][5] - Currently, attention should be focused on incremental policy developments and fundamental trends, with technology manufacturing and mid-to-high-end manufacturing sectors expected to be the mid-term market leaders [5][22] Group 2 - Historically, cross-year rallies have been observed, but the timing and magnitude differ significantly. The rally is influenced by the performance in the last quarter of the previous year, with weak performance leading to earlier rallies and strong performance resulting in later rallies [3][16] - The report highlights that macroeconomic improvements are crucial for the cross-year rally, as high-frequency macro data often guides A-share performance during the performance vacuum period [4][16] - Liquidity easing is also a direct driver of the cross-year rally, with the central bank typically increasing monetary supply to stabilize market liquidity at year-end [19][21] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring incremental policy and fundamental trends for market upgrades, suggesting that the upcoming economic work conference and political bureau meeting will provide insights into future economic policies [29][30] - The technology manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from dual support from policies and technological advancements, with significant growth anticipated in areas such as digital infrastructure and AI applications [34][35] - Mid-to-high-end manufacturing is projected to maintain a favorable outlook due to strong supply and resilient external demand, with specific attention on sectors like automotive and home appliances [36][37]

宏观周报 2024 年 12 月 1 日 宏观研究 证券研究报告 [Table_MainInfo] [Table_AuthorInfo] 美欧 12 月或降息 ——海外经济政策跟踪 [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。上周（2024.11.22-2024.11.29），全球大类资产价格中， 主要经济体股市涨跌互现。上证综指领涨 1.8%，标普 500 和恒生指数分别 上涨 1.1%、1.0%，日经 225 指数下跌 0.2%；COMEX 铜上涨 1.4%，伦敦金现 和 IPE 布油期货价格分别下跌 2.4%和 3.1%；10 年期美债收益率较前一周回 落 23BP 至 4.18%，国内 10Y 国债期货价格上涨 0.15%；美元指数较前一周下 跌 1.6%，报收 105.8，日元升值，美元兑日元收 149.8，人民币小幅升值， 美元兑人民币汇率收 7.2。 经济：美国方面：10 月，美国个人可支配收入和消费支出同比均有所回升， PCE 和核心 PCE 价格指数同比有所反弹。房地产市场方面，10 月新房销售大 幅回落，9 月美国标普/CS 房价指数同比持续回落。生产方面，10 月美国耐 用品新订单 ...