Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the heavy truck industry, with an expected sales volume of 960,000 units in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6% [17]. Core Insights - The heavy truck market is experiencing a narrowing year-on-year decline in sales, with new energy trucks showing significant growth, particularly in November where sales reached 8,000 units, a 141% increase year-on-year [7][68]. - The penetration rate of natural gas in heavy trucks is increasing, with a notable 22% for semi-trailers and 11% for heavy trucks in November [2]. - The report highlights the importance of the gas-diesel price ratio as a key indicator affecting natural gas heavy truck sales [4]. Summary by Sections Heavy Truck Sales - In November, the total sales of heavy trucks were 68,000 units, showing a year-on-year decline of 4% but a month-on-month increase of 3% [60]. - The cumulative sales of heavy trucks from January to November reached 208,000 units, with a year-on-year decline of 5% [60]. Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - November sales of natural gas heavy trucks were 7,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 54% [62]. - The cumulative sales of natural gas heavy trucks from January to November were 14,800 units, down 54% year-on-year, but showing a month-on-month increase of 3% [78]. Market Share and Key Players - The top ten heavy truck manufacturers accounted for 88% of the cumulative market share in 2024, with China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and FAW Group leading the market [9]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the heavy truck sector, driven by domestic recovery and continuous export growth [19]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks will continue to rise, supported by policies promoting equipment upgrades and the economic advantages of using natural gas [82].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests focusing on parts and components companies in the cellphone and PC supply chain due to favorable market conditions [13][28]. Core Insights - Under government consumption incentives, the continental PC market is expected to grow by 6% in 2025 [6][34]. - Multiple regions have issued consumer electronics subsidy policies, likely boosting domestic shipments. For instance, Jiangsu has expanded household appliance subsidies to include 3C products, and Zhuhai is offering subsidies up to RMB 2000 for certain electronics [7][35]. - The report indicates that the consumer electronics sector has shown resilience, with a 4% year-on-year growth in consumer market shipments due to pre-holiday stocking and government incentives [12][27]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The SW Consumer Electronics index rose by 1.22%, while the SW Electronics index increased by 3.55% during the week of December 16-20, 2024. In contrast, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.14% [1][33]. Government Policies - Various regions, including Jiangsu, Guizhou, and Zhuhai, have introduced consumer electronics subsidy policies, which are expected to enhance domestic shipments of PCs and mobile devices [7][35][28]. Shipment Trends - In Q3 2024, China's PC shipments slightly declined by 1% year-on-year, totaling 11.10 million units. However, consumer market shipments grew by 4% year-on-year, and tablet shipments increased by 5% to 7.70 million units [12][27].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, indicating that the stock's total return over the next 12-18 months is expected to exceed the return of its relevant broad market benchmark [1][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Newmont is a leading global gold company and producer of copper, silver, zinc, and lead, with high-quality mining areas across various regions including Africa, Australia, and North America. The company is recognized for its strong performance in environmental, social, and governance practices [42][45]. - In 2023, Newmont completed the acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited, enhancing its position as the world's largest gold mining company by adding five active mines and two projects to its portfolio [42][45]. - The gold business constitutes 89% of Newmont's sales, while other metals account for 11%. Despite a slight decrease in gold production due to a labor strike, the average realized price of gold increased significantly to $1954 per ounce in 2023, up 9% from the previous year [43][46]. - The report anticipates that gold prices will continue to rise during the current interest rate cut cycle, supported by geopolitical tensions and a complex global situation [44][47]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Newmont is the only gold producer listed in the S&P 500 Index and has a strong reputation for its governance practices. The company has a long history, with significant acquisitions and expansions that have solidified its industry leadership [42][45][49]. Financial Performance - In 2023, Newmont reported revenues of $11.812 billion and a net income of $2.521 billion. The adjusted net income was $1.324 billion, reflecting the company's robust financial health despite production challenges [69]. Production and Pricing - Newmont's equity gold production in 2023 was 5.545 million ounces, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year. The company expects full-year gold production to be around 6.75 million ounces, with unit selling costs and comprehensive maintenance costs aligned with initial guidance [43][46].

Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com [Table_MainInfo] 策略研究 证券研究报告 策略专题报告 [Table_Title] 跟踪转口贸易的两个中观视角 ——25 年策略展望系列 4 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心结论：①18-19 年贸易摩擦后中国部分行业/商品通过绕道东南亚国家来 实现转口，其中家居用品和电池较为典型。②18-19 年贸易摩擦后中国部分 行业与东南亚国家通过上下游分工来避开制裁，例如半导体和汽车零部件。 ③近两年我国对东南亚出口高增并非单纯是转口，更多源于其本身内需强 劲，未来我国中高端制造有望继续受益。 跟踪转口方式 1：借助第三国绕道。通过对比 18-19 年中美贸易摩擦前后， 中国各行业对东南亚和拉美地区出口额的变化，以及美国各行业自东南亚和 拉美地区进口额的变化，我们发现多个行业在东南亚、拉美等地存在转口迹 象，即通过东南亚、拉美等地进行转口，再将产品销往美国。以家居用品、 电池和半导体为典型：中国家居用品行业通过中资企业进驻柬埔寨，在柬埔 寨进行转口贸易；中国电池行业加大在马来西亚投资，通过马来西亚转口； 中国半导体 ...

Trade Friction Impact - The 2018-2019 trade friction led to a significant increase in tariffs, with U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports rising from 3.1% to 19.3%, and Chinese tariffs on U.S. imports rising from 8% to 21.2%[11] - Academic studies estimate that a 1% increase in tariffs could lead to a 1.6% decrease in Chinese exports to the U.S., with overall export declines ranging from 17% to 32%[18] - The burden of tariffs was largely borne by U.S. consumers and importers, as Chinese export prices did not significantly decrease despite the tariff hikes[19] Potential 2025 Tariff Scenarios - If the U.S. imposes a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, the average tariff level could rise by 40.7 percentage points, significantly impacting Chinese exports[23] - Under a neutral scenario, a 40% tariff increase could reduce China's export growth by 3.8 percentage points and GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points[29] - In an extreme scenario, a 60% tariff could drag down China's overall exports by 5.1 percentage points and GDP by more than 1 percentage point[29] Industry-Specific Impacts - Labor-intensive industries such as textiles, apparel, and furniture are more vulnerable to tariff increases due to their high export dependency[34] - Industries like computer and communication equipment, which have high U.S. import dependency, are also at significant risk[34] - Some industries, such as furniture and leather products, may have the ability to shift exports to other markets, mitigating the impact of tariffs[44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, with a target price of RMB 12.19, representing a potential upside of 35% [5][20]. Core Insights - The company is a leading hydropower and new energy developer in the Lancang River Basin, with a controlled installed capacity of 29.20 million kilowatts as of the first half of 2024. It has announced a joint project to enhance its system regulation capabilities [2][17]. - The company has shown resilience in its financial performance, with a slight revenue decline of 0.5% in 2023, but a projected revenue growth of 7.3% in 2024. The net profit is expected to grow steadily over the next few years [3][5]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing market reforms in the electricity sector, which are expected to enhance its pricing power and overall profitability [3][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a subsidiary of Huaneng Group, holding a 50.4% stake, and focuses on hydropower development in the Lancang River Basin. It operates a cascade of hydropower stations with strong regulation capabilities [2][17]. Financial Performance - For 2023, the company reported revenues of RMB 23.50 billion and a net profit of RMB 7.60 billion, with year-over-year growth rates of -0.5% and 6%, respectively. The on-grid electricity price was RMB 0.221 per kWh, reflecting a 4% increase year-over-year [3][18]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of RMB 8.52 billion, RMB 9.53 billion, and RMB 10.11 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.47, RMB 0.53, and RMB 0.56 [5][20]. Growth Prospects - The company is expanding its hydropower capacity through various projects, including the acquisition of Huaneng Sichuan, which adds 2.65 million kilowatts of installed capacity. New projects are expected to contribute significantly to future revenues [4][19]. - The company is also set to benefit from the issuance of tradable green certificates for new hydropower projects, which could enhance its revenue streams [4][19]. Valuation - The report uses a PE valuation method, assigning a multiple of 23x for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 12.19. A PB valuation method suggests a fair price of RMB 12.72, indicating strong growth potential [5][20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the autonomous driving industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - As of November 2024, the total users for Li Auto, Huawei, and NIO reached 105,000, 33,000, and 63,000 respectively, with monthly increases of 5,000, 3,000, and 2,000 users [2] - The cumulative autonomous driving mileage for Li Auto is 2.8 billion kilometers, leading among new force brands [2] - Li Auto's advanced driving features have positively impacted the sales of its high-end models, with the 2024 AD MAX model showing a significant increase in sales proportion compared to the 2023 model [7] Summary by Sections User and Mileage Data - As of November 2024, Li Auto's total autonomous driving mileage reached 2.76 billion kilometers, with 1.1 billion kilometers added in November, accounting for 73% of the total mileage [7] - Huawei's autonomous driving mileage reached 1.6 billion kilometers in November, while NIO's total mileage was 1.74 billion kilometers [10][13] Advanced Driving Features - Li Auto's end-to-end + VLM dual system architecture was fully pushed on October 23, 2024, enhancing the sales of high-end models [7] - NIO's total autonomous driving mileage includes 1.48 billion kilometers of navigation-assisted driving, with a user base of 630,000 as of November 2024 [13] Market Penetration - The penetration rate for One Box reached 39.4% in October 2024, with a cumulative penetration rate of 35.0% from January to October [19] - The penetration rate for intelligent driving domain controllers was 14.0% in October 2024, with a market share of 32.1% for leading domestic companies [23] Key Models - The Hongmeng Zhixing R7 extended version is set to launch on December 19, 2024, featuring a 1.5T engine and a CLTC range of 1570 km [31] - The Great Wall Motors' new Blue Mountain intelligent driving version was announced with nationwide NOA capabilities and a price range of 299,800 to 326,800 yuan [34] - The Xiaopeng P7+ was launched on November 7, 2024, with record pre-orders of 31,500 units and advanced AI vision capabilities [35]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for Broadcom, particularly in the custom ASIC and Ethernet solutions sectors, indicating potential growth opportunities [4][13]. Core Insights - Broadcom's Q4 2024 revenue reached $14.05 billion, a year-over-year increase of 51.20%, with a GAAP net profit of $4.32 billion, reflecting a 22.70% increase year-over-year [2][9]. - The company achieved record annual revenue of $51.57 billion for FY2024, up 44% year-over-year, driven by significant growth in AI and infrastructure software segments [9][11]. - AI revenue surged to $12.20 billion, marking a 220% increase year-over-year, primarily due to the demand for AI XPU and Ethernet products [9][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2024 saw infrastructure software revenue of $5.82 billion, up 196% year-over-year, with a gross profit margin of 91% [10]. - Semiconductor solutions revenue was $8.23 billion, a 12% increase year-over-year, with AI revenue contributing $3.70 billion, up 150% year-over-year [10][11]. - The networking segment reported $4.50 billion in revenue, a 45% increase year-over-year, with AI networking revenue comprising 76% of this, reflecting a 158% growth [10][12]. Future Guidance - For FY25Q1, Broadcom expects total revenue of $14.60 billion, with semiconductor solutions revenue projected at $8.10 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase [11]. - AI revenue is anticipated to grow 65% year-over-year to $3.80 billion, while infrastructure software revenue is expected to reach $6.50 billion, up 41% year-over-year [11]. Market Opportunities - The demand for custom AI chips is robust, with three hyperscale customers planning to deploy 1 million XPU clusters each by 2027, potentially expanding the serviceable market to $60-90 billion [12][13]. - Investment recommendations include focusing on companies involved in ASICs, Ethernet switches, high-speed copper cables, and cooling solutions, indicating a broad range of potential investment opportunities in the sector [4][13].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the machine tool industry, anticipating recovery driven by government support for equipment updates and domestic machine tool exports [9]. Core Insights - From January to November 2024, metal cutting machine tool production increased by 8.1% year-on-year to 610,000 units, with November production reaching 60,000 units, up 10.5% year-on-year [2][29]. - Machine tool imports in November 2024 totaled USD 492 million, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.89% but a year-on-year decrease of 4.84% [2][29]. - In Japan, domestic machine tool orders rose by 5.0% year-on-year to JPY 34.3 billion, while foreign orders increased by 2.2% year-on-year to JPY 85 billion in November 2024 [2][30]. Industry Data Summary - The machine tool industry revenue from January to October 2024 was RMB 838.7 billion, down 5.9% year-on-year, with metal cutting tools growing by 7.7% and metal forming tools by 8.9% [4][32]. - New orders for metal processing tools increased by 3.2% year-on-year, and the backlog of orders grew by 1.5% [4][32]. - In November 2024, major Japanese machine tool companies saw a 16.4% year-on-year increase in orders, indicating a recovery in demand, although small and medium enterprises remain cautious [4][33]. Policy Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is planning new measures to stabilize industrial growth, focusing on equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors, including initiatives for large-scale equipment updates and promoting smart new energy vehicles [3][31]. - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for proactive fiscal and accommodative monetary policies to foster technological innovation and risk prevention [3][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic machine tool exports and applications in emerging fields such as robotics and 3C, highlighting key companies in various segments of the machine tool industry [9][34].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Outperform" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to see rapid growth in RF power supply products for the semiconductor sector starting in 2025E [2][4]. - The company has established itself as a leader in industrial power supply, focusing on power electronics technology applications across various industries, including power control supplies and special power supplies [2][4][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has over 20 years of innovation, successfully developing several industry-first products, including the first fully digital single crystal furnace heating DC power supply in China and the first 36-pair multi-crystal silicon reduction furnace power supply globally [2][4][21]. - The company has a strong brand presence in the domestic power control and special industrial power supply equipment market [2][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 1.28 billion yuan in 2022 and 1.77 billion yuan in 2023, with year-on-year growth rates of 94.34% and 37.99%, respectively [47]. - The projected revenues for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 2.22 billion yuan, 2.61 billion yuan, and 2.91 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 25.56%, 17.35%, and 11.84% [4][47]. - The net profit for 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is expected to be 550 million yuan, 670 million yuan, and 806 million yuan, with growth rates of 27.45%, 21.82%, and 20.36% [4][47]. Market Dynamics - The company’s orders for the first three quarters of 2024 were approximately 1.4 billion yuan, showing a decline primarily due to a significant drop in the photovoltaic sector, which saw orders decrease by over 50% year-on-year [3][32]. - Orders from the semiconductor electronic materials sector increased by over 10% year-on-year, amounting to 328 million yuan [3][32]. - The company aims to expand its overseas market for photovoltaic power supplies and increase sales in semiconductor electronic materials and new energy charging pile businesses [3][32]. Growth Opportunities - The partnership with leading semiconductor equipment companies is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution process for RF power supplies [4][37]. - The company is focusing on expanding its sales scale in semiconductor electronic materials, which is anticipated to grow rapidly [4][50]. Product Segmentation - The company’s revenue from the photovoltaic sector was 974 million yuan in 2023, maintaining a market share of over 70% in the domestic market [27][43]. - The revenue from the semiconductor electronic materials sector has been increasing, with a significant growth rate of 69.35% in 2023 [47][50]. - The company has developed a series of electric vehicle charging equipment, achieving recognition in the industry for quality and innovation [25][29].