Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 27.35 per share based on a 2024 PE valuation of 12X [5][17]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit, with a 172.3% rise to USD 150 million in Q3 2024, driven by a 12.5% increase in total revenue to USD 2.06 billion [2][13]. - Manufacturing revenue grew by 23.1% year-on-year, while the gross profit margin (GPM) increased by 0.6 percentage points to 24.1% [2][14]. - The company achieved a 9M return on invested capital (ROIC) and return on assets (ROA) of 10.8% and 6.5%, respectively, marking a 7-year high [2][13]. Financial Performance - Q3 manufacturing capacity utilization reached 95%, the highest in nine quarters, with a 9M GPM at a 7-year high [3][14]. - The average selling price (ASP) for products decreased by 4.9% year-on-year to USD 20.73, but the decline in prices narrowed each quarter [4][15]. - The retail segment saw Baosheng revenue decline by 10.8% to RMB 4 billion, but the gross profit margin improved to 33.5% [5][16]. Revenue Forecast - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be USD 470 million, USD 520 million, and USD 570 million, respectively, reflecting a positive growth outlook [5][17]. - The dividend payout ratio is projected to be around 70% in 2024, leading to an expected dividend yield of 10.0% based on the closing price on November 15 [5][17].

Equity – Asia Research 风渐起，心动到幡动——中国经济和资本市场展望 Winds Rising, Hearts Stirring: Outlook for China's Economy and Capital Markets 吴信坤Xinkun Wu xk.wu@htisec.com 周林泓Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 17 Nov 2024 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券 研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请 参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) 从近期股市的变化谈起 924发动的行情，类似519行情：政策利好，突然放量大涨。 详见《参考99年519——这轮股市行情及经济走出困境的思考-20241006》 2500 2700 2900 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting that coal prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise in the short term due to seasonal demand and favorable fiscal policies [5]. Core Insights - October coal production reached 412 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.6% and a cumulative output of 3.89 billion tons for January-October, reflecting a 1.2% increase year-on-year [2][8]. - Demand for thermal power, crude steel, and cement showed improvements in October, with thermal power output increasing by 1.8% year-on-year [2][8]. - The report highlights that the coal supply has returned to historical peak levels, with limited production increases expected in November and December [2][8]. - The average daily coal consumption in power plants rose significantly to 5.4 million tons, a 1.4% increase year-on-year, indicating a potential peak in demand as temperatures drop [3][9]. - The report notes that while steel prices are declining, the overall hot metal output remains stable, providing some support for demand in the coal sector [4][10]. Summary by Sections Production and Demand - October raw coal output was 412 million tons, with a cumulative output of 3.89 billion tons for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2][8]. - Demand for thermal power, crude steel, and cement showed mixed results, with thermal power increasing by 1.8% year-on-year [2][8]. Price Trends - As of November 15, coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were RMB 837 per ton, with a slight decrease compared to previous weeks [3][9]. - The report anticipates that coal prices may stabilize and rise due to increased demand and limited downside from import price spreads [3][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on coal companies with low valuations and high dividends, such as China Coal Energy and China Shenhua Energy, which are expected to see marginal improvements in operations and dividends [5][11]. - Companies like Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy and Shanxi Coal International are highlighted for their expected performance improvements and growth potential in 2025 [5][11].

Group 1: Global Asset Performance - Major global stock markets declined last week, with the Hang Seng Index leading with a drop of 6.3%[1] - The S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 fell by 2.1% and 2.2%, respectively[1] - COMEX copper and London gold prices decreased by 5.7% and 4.5%[1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year in October, marking a 0.2 percentage point increase from September[16] - Core CPI remained stable at 3.3% year-on-year[16] - U.S. PPI increased by 2.4% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 2.3%[16] Group 3: Retail and Industrial Performance - U.S. retail sales rose by 2.6% year-on-year in October, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[18] - Industrial production showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.0% in October[19] - U.S. industrial capacity utilization fell to 77.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from September[19] Group 4: Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy - As of November 15, the 5-year inflation expectation in the U.S. was 2.39%, down 4 basis points from the previous week[22] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December decreased from 64.6% to 61.9%[22] - The European Central Bank is expected to consider a rate cut in December due to declining inflation trends[36]

Investment Rating - Maintain OUTPERFORM rating with a target price of Rmb8.56 [1][2] - Current price is Rmb8.17 as of November 15, 2024 [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, with revenue reaching Rmb4.903 billion, up 3.74% YoY, and net profit surging 199.96% YoY to Rmb334 million [8] - Gross profit margin improved significantly to 23.74% in Q3 2024, driven by increased delivery of high-value-added products [8] - R&D expenses grew 33.77% in the first three quarters of 2024, far exceeding revenue growth, with R&D expense ratio reaching 3.85% [9] - The company won a Rmb1.34 billion bid for the flexible DC UHV converter valve in Gansu-Zhejiang, accounting for 7.5% of the total UHV equipment bidding [9] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2024E is projected at Rmb24.693 billion, with net profit of Rmb1.181 billion, representing a 33% YoY growth [5] - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 18.2%-18.3% from 2024E to 2026E [5] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 5.4% in 2024E to 7.2% in 2026E [5] - P/E ratio is expected to decline from 47x in 2023A to 24x in 2026E [5] Industry Outlook - The UHV and power transmission equipment sector maintains high prosperity, with total bidding for UHV equipment reaching Rmb17.929 billion by November 2024 [9] - The company is expected to benefit from the industry's growth, with an average of 3-4 DC UHV lines projected to start construction annually during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [9] - Total bidding for power transmission and transformation equipment reached Rmb65.82 billion in the first five batches, up 11.6% YoY [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for the company [2][12]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of Rmb 7.885 billion in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.88%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was Rmb 857 million, a year-on-year increase of 55.13% [6][256]. - The gross profit margin significantly increased to 24.27% in the first three quarters, up 4.29 percentage points year-on-year [6][256]. - The company is a leading supplier of GIS equipment, benefiting from the high-speed construction of the power grid, with power grid investment expected to approach Rmb 600 billion in 2024 [7][259]. - The report forecasts operating revenues for 2024-2026 to be Rmb 13.15 billion, Rmb 15.46 billion, and Rmb 17.99 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of Rmb 1.17 billion, Rmb 1.41 billion, and Rmb 1.67 billion [8][260]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: Rmb 11,077 million for 2023, Rmb 13,146 million for 2024, Rmb 15,462 million for 2025, and Rmb 17,985 million for 2026, with growth rates of 19%, 19%, 18%, and 16% respectively [5][254]. - Net profit is projected to grow significantly, with estimates of Rmb 816 million for 2023, Rmb 1,174 million for 2024, Rmb 1,409 million for 2025, and Rmb 1,666 million for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 285%, 44%, 20%, and 18% respectively [5][254]. - The diluted EPS is expected to increase from Rmb 0.60 in 2023 to Rmb 1.23 in 2026 [5][254].

Consumption - Automotive retail remains resilient with a year-on-year growth rate of 42.2% and 60.7% for retail and wholesale respectively, maintaining high levels for the year[16] - Non-durable goods consumption, particularly textiles and apparel, shows volatility with a recent year-on-year decline of 10.1%[16] - Movie attendance and box office revenues have turned negative, with year-on-year growth rates dropping to -26.2% and -19.7% respectively, indicating a decrease in consumer interest[18] Investment - Infrastructure investment is facing challenges, with new corporate medium to long-term loans in October amounting to 170 billion yuan, a decrease of 212.8 billion yuan year-on-year[24] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities show a year-on-year growth decline from 25.6% to 17.0%, with second-hand housing transactions declining faster than new homes[24] Trade - South Korea's exports saw a significant year-on-year drop of 17.8% in early November, indicating weakening external demand[31] - China's port data shows a marginal improvement in the number of ships departing, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1% and 13.2% in tonnage for major ports[31] Production - The steel industry shows marginal improvement with the overall operating rate increasing, while coal consumption in coastal provinces has exceeded seasonal levels, indicating a shift towards higher energy demand[33] - The operating rate for PTA in the petrochemical sector has improved, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.7%[33] Inventory and Prices - Coal inventories at Qinhuangdao Port have risen above seasonal levels, nearing historical highs, while steel inventory reduction has slowed with a year-on-year decline of 12.7%[39] - Food prices continue to decline, with pork prices down 1.2% month-on-month and vegetable prices decreasing by 3.0%, leading to a reduction in year-on-year growth rates for these categories[41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for XPeng [1]. Core Insights - Alibaba's recent increase in XPeng ADS holdings from 6.65 million to 31.31 million shares is interpreted as a conversion of ordinary shares to ADS rather than a significant increase in investment [2][10]. - Alibaba's strategic shift indicates a focus on core businesses by divesting non-core assets, with a notable reduction in its stake in XPeng from 10.2% to below 5% through multiple sell-offs [4][10]. - The divestment aligns with Alibaba's broader strategic adjustments, including organizational restructuring and leadership changes, aimed at optimizing its business structure [4][10]. Summary by Sections Event - On November 14, Alibaba disclosed an increase in its XPeng ADS holdings to 31.31 million as of September 30, up from 6.65 million on June 30 [2][9]. Comments - The market misinterpreted Alibaba's increased ADS as a bullish signal, while it is likely a conversion for easier trading in the U.S. market [3][10]. - Alibaba's relationship with XPeng began in 2018, with significant investments made prior to XPeng's Nasdaq listing in 2020 [4][10]. - Recent sell-offs include 25 million ADS in December 2023 for approximately $391 million and 33 million ADS in March 2024, indicating a trend towards further reductions [4][10]. Strategic Shift - Alibaba's divestment from XPeng is part of a strategy to focus on its core e-commerce and cloud computing businesses, reflecting a broader trend of optimizing its asset portfolio [4][10].

Inflation Overview - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October reached 6.21%, marking a 14-month high and exceeding the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target range of 2%-6%[3] - Food inflation surged to 10.87%, with vegetable inflation skyrocketing to 42.18% due to a low base effect[3][8] - Pulses and their products also saw a significant increase in inflation at 7.43% despite last year's high base[3][8] Monetary Policy Implications - The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has shifted from a hawkish stance to a more neutral position, indicating that rate cuts are unlikely until inflation consistently falls below 4%[3] - Given the recent inflation spike, the likelihood of a rate cut in the upcoming December meeting is low, with potential cuts expected in the first half of 2025[3] Consumer Behavior and Economic Outlook - Urban consumption has shown signs of weakness, while private sector capital expenditure in infrastructure has not kept pace with government spending[3] - The government is taking measures to stabilize vegetable prices, particularly onions, which are a major contributor to food inflation[3][8] Core CPI Analysis - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food prices, was recorded at 3.7% in October, remaining below the 4% threshold for the past year[3]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 15 Nov 2024 中国能源 China (A-share) Energy 国际 AI 工业+能源周报 (11/04-11/10): 英国电池储能收入创纪录，暴风雪 导致美国科罗拉多州 50,000 多户家庭断电 Global AI Industrials & Energy Updates: UK battery storage revenue hits record high, snowstorm leaves over 50,000 homes without power in Colorado 杨斌 Bin Yang 余小龙 Bruce Yu 毛琼佩 Olivia Mao bin.yang@htisec.com bruce.xl.yu@htisec.com olivia.qp.mao@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 核心观点： 中国：1）天然气：本周期中 ...