Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the banking industry but discusses the capital replenishment measures for large state-owned commercial banks, indicating a cautious approach to maintaining capital adequacy [2][3]. Core Insights - The issuance of special treasury bonds is aimed at supporting the replenishment of Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital for large state-owned commercial banks, enhancing their risk resilience and credit issuance capacity to better serve the real economy [11]. - As of Q2 2024, the CET1 ratios of the six major banks are as follows: China Construction Bank 14.01%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China 13.84%, Bank of China 12.03%, Agricultural Bank of China 11.13%, Bank of Communications 10.30%, and Postal Savings Bank of China 9.28% [3][12]. - The current CET1 ratios of ICBC and CCB are deemed sufficient to support potential growth, with the capital replenishment viewed as a precautionary measure [3][12]. - If profit growth is zero over the next three years and risk-weighted assets grow by 15%, the CET1 ratio could drop to around 8% in three years, highlighting the importance of maintaining adequate capital levels [3][12]. - The report notes a potential dilution effect on existing shareholders due to the capital injection, but a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1 would reflect shareholder recognition of the banks' value [3][12]. Summary by Sections Event - On October 12, 2024, it was announced that special treasury bonds would be issued to support the replenishment of CET1 capital for large state-owned commercial banks [11]. Commentary - The report emphasizes the need for precautionary measures in a conservative scenario, with current CET1 ratios indicating a stable position for the major banks [3][12]. - The commentary also discusses the implications of capital replenishment on shareholder value and the overall health of the banking sector [3][12].

[Table_MainInfo] Amber Zhou amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com 宏观研究 证券研究报告 宏观快报点评 2024-10-15 出口为何回落？ ——2024 年 9 月外贸数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 根据海关总署统计，美元计价下，2024 年 9 月我国出口总额同比为 2.4%（8 月为 8.7%）；进口总额同比为 0.3%（8 月为 0.5%）。9 月贸易顺差收窄为 817.1 亿美元。 出口回落：重要经济体景气下滑以及欧盟出口大幅下滑是主要因素。9 月出 口同比增速为 2.4%，较 8 月回落 6.3 个百分点，且季调环比也明显转负。从 国家和地区来看，东盟和俄罗斯贡献较大，而对欧盟、日本、韩国以及英国 等出口均是拖累。 从产品来看，机电产品是主要贡献，劳动密集型产品是主要拖累。此外，从 量价拆分来看，出口数量增速为正的商品数量继续减少，出口价格仍是拖累。 进口继续放缓。9 月我国进口总额同比增速为 0.3%，较 8 月继续下行。从国 家和地区来看，东盟、美国和韩国表现不错，不过这一定程度上与去年低基 数有关。从产品来看，集成电路和大豆表现不 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO US) [1] Core Views - Southern Copper Corporation is recognized as a global copper giant with excellent cost control and significant resource reserves, aiming to increase copper production to 1.3 million tons per year over the next decade with an investment exceeding $15 billion [3][22] - The company reported a net profit of $2.425 billion in 2023, with a 1.8% year-on-year increase in copper production [3] - The target price is set at $155.10, based on a 30x PE valuation for 2025 EPS of $5.17 [24] Company Overview - Southern Copper Corporation is one of the largest integrated copper producers globally, with significant operations in Mexico and Peru, and a copper metal reserve of 44.97 million tons, the largest in the world [3][4] - The company’s revenue from copper products accounted for 76% of total revenue in 2023, with molybdenum products contributing 13% [4] Financial Performance - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a net sales figure of $3.1183 billion, a 35.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of $950.2 million, up 73.6% from the previous year [6][22] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2024 reached $1.797 billion, reflecting a 61.1% increase [6] Production and Cost Advantages - The company’s cash cost of copper production, excluding by-product credits, was $4,453 per ton in 2022, which dropped to $1,720 per ton when considering by-product revenues [8] - In 2023, copper production reached 911,014 tons, with a 1.8% increase from 2022, driven by growth in Peru [10] Future Projects - Key projects include Tia Maria, expected to start operations in 2027, and Michiquillay, projected to produce 225,000 tons of copper annually starting in 2032 [22] - The company plans to invest over $15 billion in expanding and upgrading existing projects and developing new copper resources over the next decade [22] Industry Outlook - The copper industry faces supply uncertainties due to geopolitical issues and environmental concerns, while demand remains strong, particularly from the renewable energy sector [23]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state the investment rating for Shandong Jianbang New Materials (603285 CH) Core Views - The company is a leader in environmentally friendly additives for polymer materials, focusing on the R&D, production, and sales of these products, which are used as stabilizers, catalysts, plasticizers, and coupling agents in various applications such as PVC plastics and coatings [1][14] - The company has a strong market position with a product system centered around THEIC, titanate, DBM, SBM, and acetylacetonate, which are important substitutes for traditional non-environmentally friendly stabilizers like lead salts [1][14] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity and product range to create new revenue and profit growth points [11][16] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the fine chemical industry, focusing on environmentally friendly additives for polymer materials [1][14] - The product system includes key products such as THEIC, titanate, DBM, SBM, and acetylacetonate, which are essential for various applications [1][14] Financial Performance - The company's operating income for 2021-2023 was RMB 1,044 million, RMB 754 million, and RMB 674 million, with net profits of RMB 329 million, RMB 243 million, and RMB 190 million respectively [1][4][14] - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved an operating income of RMB 363 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.70%, while net profit decreased by 2.18% to RMB 96 million [1][14] Product Sales Breakdown - In 2023, THEIC products generated sales of RMB 341 million, accounting for 50.52% of total revenue, while sales of titanate products were RMB 159 million (23.63% of revenue), DBM/SBM products contributed RMB 82 million (12.24%), and acetylacetonate products accounted for RMB 62 million (9.18%) [2][15] - The sales of DBM/SBM products increased by 28.13% year-on-year, while acetylacetonate products saw a growth of 21.57% [2][15] Capacity Expansion - The company plans to invest RMB 1.048 billion in a new production base for environmental protection additives, which will include various products with a total annual capacity of 300,000 tons [11][16] - Additional investments include RMB 212 million for a DBM production line expansion and RMB 160 million for a high-purity acetylacetonate project [11][16] Market Opportunities - The demand for polymer materials and additives is increasing due to urbanization, consumption upgrades in construction materials, and the growth of the automotive market [3][12][17] - The rapid development of the new energy vehicle market is significantly boosting the demand for lithium batteries, which in turn stimulates the upstream materials industry [3][12][17] - Government policies are promoting the development of environmentally friendly additives, creating opportunities for the company to replace traditional toxic additives [3][12][17]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Eaglerise Electric & Electronic with an **OUTPERFORM** rating, setting a target price of RMB 24.33, compared to the current price of RMB 18.99 [2] - The HTI ESG score for the company is 4.3-4.3-4.0, indicating strong environmental, social, and governance practices [2] Core Investment Thesis - Eaglerise has been deeply cultivating the new energy industry for 25 years, with its overseas layout opening significant growth opportunities [5] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 3.63 billion in 2023 to RMB 6.93 billion in 2026, with net profit increasing from RMB 209 million to RMB 576 million over the same period [4] - The company's energy products, particularly photovoltaic step-up transformers and magnetic components, are benefiting from the high growth in the global new energy sector [7] Revenue and Profit Growth - Revenue growth is projected at 29% in 2023, 26% in 2024, 24% in 2025, and 21% in 2026, driven by strong demand in the new energy sector [4] - Net profit growth is expected to be 9% in 2023, 70% in 2024, 32% in 2025, and 22% in 2026, reflecting improving margins and operational efficiency [4] - The company's gross profit margin (GPM) is forecasted to increase from 22.3% in 2023 to 23.7% in 2024, before stabilizing around 22.9% by 2026 [4] Overseas Expansion - Eaglerise has been expanding its overseas presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 27% of total revenue in 2023 [10] - The company has established production bases in Malaysia, Thailand, the US, and Mexico, with further growth expected in overseas markets starting from 2024 [10] New Energy Products - The company's main new energy products include photovoltaic step-up transformers and magnetic components, which are expected to benefit from the global photovoltaic market growth [7] - Global photovoltaic installed capacity is projected to reach 430GW in 2024, with China's new installed capacity expected to exceed 220GW, driven by strong demand [21] Energy Storage and Charging Pile Business - Eaglerise is expanding into energy storage and charging pile businesses, targeting industrial and commercial energy storage and large-scale energy storage power stations [8] - The global energy storage market is expected to grow significantly, with new installed capacity reaching 64.62GW in 2024 under conservative estimates and 75.71GW under optimistic scenarios [8] Lighting Industry - The company's lighting products, including LED drivers and lighting fixtures, are benefiting from the global shift towards energy-efficient lighting solutions [26] - The LED lighting market in China is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.4% from 2022 to 2028, reaching RMB 460 billion by 2028 [27] Valuation and Financial Projections - Based on the DCF model, the target price for Eaglerise is set at RMB 24.33, with a projected revenue of RMB 45.9 billion in 2024, RMB 57.1 billion in 2025, and RMB 69.3 billion in 2026 [8] - The company's ROE is expected to improve from 8.6% in 2023 to 15.1% in 2026, reflecting stronger profitability and operational efficiency [4] Product Portfolio and Strategy - Eaglerise operates under a "2+X" strategy, focusing on energy products and lighting products, while also expanding into new areas such as energy storage, charging piles, and automotive power supplies [11] - The company's product portfolio includes photovoltaic transformers, industrial control transformers, and LED lighting products, with a strong focus on innovation and market expansion [12]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the coal industry, recommending a focus on coking coal opportunities and stable thermal coal sectors [4][5]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Finance is set to introduce new policies aimed at boosting coal demand, which includes measures to stabilize growth and mitigate risks [5]. - Post-holiday, coal prices at Qinhuangdao port slightly decreased to RMB 852/ton, reflecting a 1.7% decline from pre-holiday levels, while daily coal consumption in 25 provinces increased by 4.7% year-on-year [3][5]. - The report anticipates that despite short-term fluctuations, coal prices are likely to remain high due to improving economic expectations and recovering non-electric demand [3][5]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy Impact - The Ministry of Finance plans to implement targeted policies to stabilize growth, including resolving local government debt and supporting key groups [5]. - Major banks are adjusting personal mortgage rates, which may further stimulate coal demand [5]. Coal Price Trends - As of October 11, coal prices at Qinhuangdao port were RMB 852/ton, down 1.7% from the previous period, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.1% [3][5]. - Daily coal consumption in 25 provinces averaged 5.16 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [3][5]. Coking Coal Market - Coking coal prices have seen two rounds of increases post-holiday, with a cumulative rise of RMB 250/ton, indicating strong demand supported by macroeconomic policies [3][5]. - The operating rate of coking plants is at 73.1%, with daily iron production at 2.33 million tons, suggesting robust demand for coking coal [3][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on coking coal opportunities, highlighting companies such as Huaibei Mining Holdings and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining [4][5]. - It also emphasizes the stability of the thermal coal sector, recommending companies like China Coal Energy and China Shenhua Energy [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kunlun Energy (135 HK) with a target price of 8.11 HKD/share [6][9] Core Views - Kunlun Energy achieved a comprehensive improvement in revenue and profit in H1 2024, driven by growth in natural gas sales volume and continuous optimization of sales structure [2][6] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 45% in 2025, reflecting confidence in its financial stability and growth prospects [2][6] Financial Performance - Revenue in H1 2024 reached 92.922 billion yuan, a 10.5% YoY increase, with pre-tax profit growing 6.74% YoY to 7.249 billion yuan [2][6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 2.6% YoY to 3.305 billion yuan, and the company announced its first mid-term dividend of 16.41 yuan per share [2][6] Natural Gas Business - Natural gas sales volume in H1 2024 grew 10.6% YoY to 264.38 billion cubic meters, with retail gas volume increasing 10.3% YoY to 163.02 billion cubic meters [2][7] - Industrial and commercial gas sales accounted for a larger share of retail gas sales, increasing by 4.6 percentage points YoY, driven by growth in "three new" industrial users (new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic products) [2][7] - The company added 449,000 new users, bringing the total to 16.053 million, further solidifying its leading position in the terminal market [2][7] LPG and LNG Business - LPG business achieved a 32.6% YoY increase in pre-tax profit to 561 million yuan, despite a 0.4% YoY decline in sales volume, due to operational efficiency improvements [8] - LNG processing and storage business saw a 22.9% YoY increase in pre-tax profit to 1.648 billion yuan, with LNG gasification and loading volume growing 5.9% YoY to 77.70 billion cubic meters [8] - The average load rate of LNG plants increased by 19.5 percentage points YoY to 58.4%, with self-produced and sold volume growing 11.5% YoY [8] Exploration and Production Business - Exploration and production business faced pressure, with revenue declining 85.5% YoY to 88 million yuan due to the expiration of exploration contracts for Liaohe and Peru oilfields [8] - Crude oil sales decreased by 16.5% YoY to 4.04 million barrels, although the average crude oil price increased by 2.15 USD/barrel to 67.77 USD/barrel [8] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts Kunlun Energy's main business revenue for FY24-26 at 189.98/202.59/215.16 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to the parent company at 5.666/6.077/6.497 billion yuan [9] - The target price is set at 8.11 HKD/share, reflecting the company's stable operations and continuous optimization of its sales structure [9]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the rail transit equipment industry, recommending to focus on companies like CRRC Corporation, China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation, and Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. due to high demand for EMU procurement and maintenance, along with equipment updates and the phase-out of old diesel locomotives [4]. Core Insights - National railway fixed asset investment grew by 10.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with 1210 km of new high-speed rail constructed. By Q3 2024, total investment reached RMB 561.2 billion, with September alone seeing RMB 83.7 billion, marking an 8.84% increase year-on-year [2][17]. - During the National Day Golden Week, railway passenger and cargo transport reached record highs, with 177 million passengers transported and cargo transport hitting 115 million tons, a 2.3% increase year-on-year [2][17]. - The National Railway Administration has mandated the phase-out of old diesel locomotives by the end of 2027 in key areas, promoting the adoption of new energy railway equipment [18]. Summary by Sections Fixed Asset Investment & New Mileage - In the first three quarters, national railway fixed asset investment increased by 10.3% year-on-year, totaling RMB 561.2 billion. New railway lines added up to 1820 km, including 1210 km of high-speed rail, contributing to a total railway mileage exceeding 160,000 km [2][17]. Passenger and Cargo Demand - The National Day Golden Week saw record transport figures, with 1.77 million passengers transported daily and cargo transport reaching 115 million tons, reflecting a 2.3% year-on-year growth [2][17]. Industry Policy - The National Railway Administration's new regulation requires the complete phase-out of old diesel locomotives by 2027 in key areas, with a broader goal of phasing them out nationwide by 2035, thereby encouraging the use of new energy railway equipment [18]. Key Companies - CRRC Corporation launched a new 20MW floating wind turbine, expanding its product offerings in the renewable energy sector [19]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation secured six major rail transit projects worth approximately RMB 2.9 billion, representing 7.84% of its 2023 audited revenue [19]. - Zhuzhou CRRC Times Electric Co., Ltd. had subsidiaries recognized as national specialized and sophisticated "Little Giant" enterprises, enhancing their market competitiveness [19].

Core Insights - The report highlights a rebound in steel prices in India and China, with domestic hot-rolled coil prices in India rising to ₹48,600 per ton, an increase of ₹1,600 per ton from the previous week [2] - The report emphasizes strong domestic steel demand in India, driven by positive trends in key sectors such as real estate, infrastructure, and automotive [2] - The report notes that the price trends dominated by China are a critical monitoring direction for the Indian steel industry [2] Steel Prices - Domestic hot-rolled coil prices in India are reported at ₹48,600 per ton, up by ₹1,600 per ton week-on-week, while rebar prices in Mumbai increased to ₹52,400 per ton, up by ₹1,900 per ton [2] - The domestic raw material costs have risen by 2% week-on-week, with iron ore prices increasing by 6% [2] Price Differentials - The domestic price differential has increased by $10 per ton week-on-week, with hot-rolled coil prices leading the charge with a 3% increase [2] Related Reports - The report references related analyses, including a preview of India's steel sector for Q2 FY25 and weekly updates on ferrous prices [1] Company Performance - Tata Steel's domestic production for Q2 FY25 is reported at 5.27 million tons, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [9] - The report provides insights into the market capitalization and performance metrics of key companies in the sector, such as Tata Steel and JSW Steel, indicating varying performance across different time frames [37] International Context - The report discusses the significant improvement in China's hot-rolled coil price differential, which increased by $46 per ton week-on-week, driven by a 14% rise in hot-rolled coil prices [3] - It also highlights the global steel price trends, with Indian offshore prices at $560 per ton, while Chinese offshore prices are at $510 per ton, reflecting a 6% decrease [3] Strategic Developments - The report mentions a memorandum of understanding between the Steel Authority of India and BHP to explore low-emission steel production strategies, indicating a shift towards sustainable practices in the industry [7] - It notes the increasing protectionist measures in various countries, including India considering raising steel import tariffs from 7.5% to 12% [8]

[Table_Title] 研究报告 2024 年 10 月 12 日 印度黑色金属 印度钢铁——2025 财年第二季度前瞻 Saras Singh Saras.singh@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis （本报告为 2024 年 10 月 10 日发布的英文报告的翻译版，以原稿为准） 我们预计所调研钢铁公司的总销售量同比持平（环比增长 2%），而变现金额预计环比下降约 2,800 卢比 / 吨（同比下 降约 4,500 卢比 / 吨）。热轧卷板广泛基准价格季度环比下降了 6%，而螺纹钢则下降了 10%。在原材料成本方面，焦 煤和铁矿石价格分别下跌了 21%和 3%，对公司的价差改善有利，但由于第一季度使用了高成本的原材料存货，部分效 益将在 2025 财年第二季度实现。我们的模型表明热轧卷板现货价差正在改善 我们预计塔塔钢铁 / 京德勒西南钢铁 / 金达尔钢铁与电力 / 印度钢铁管理局的销量同比增长 7% / 下滑 1% / 增长 5% / 下 滑 14%，而变现金额预计环比下降 2,500 卢比 / 吨至 3,000 卢比 / 吨。我们预计塔塔钢 ...