[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务/信息科技服务 证券研究报告 Lin Yang lin.yang@htisec.com Liang Song I.song@htisec.com 金证股份（600446）公司研究报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 金融科技领军，赋能金融行业数字化升级 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 聚焦大证券和大资管双基石战略，23 年净利润大幅提升。2023 年公司实现营 业收入 62.21 亿元，同比下降 3.97%；归母净利润 3.69 亿元，同比增长 37.20%； 扣非归母净利润 2.64 亿元，同比增长 22.61%。分业务来看，金融软件业务收 入 24.55 亿元，同比增长 5.61%；非金融软件业务收入 37.61 亿元，同比下降 9.05%。2020-2023 年公司金融行业收入占比逐步提升，分别占比 30.73%、 32.62%、35.89%、39.47%。净利润大幅提升主要系公司大力发展双基石业务， 毛利率较高的金融软件业务占比提升，且公司在成本费用控制方面取得明显 成效。24Q1 公司实现营业收入 10.89 亿元，同比下降 13 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for China Resources Gas with a target price of HK$37.94, up from the previous target [3][10]. Core Insights - The company has experienced steady growth in gas sales driven by residential and commercial users, with total retail gas sales volume increasing by 5.3% year-on-year to 20.9 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2024 [8][9]. - Revenue for the first half of 2024 reached HK$20.08 billion, a 7.7% increase from the previous year, while operating profit rose by 18.3% to HK$5.56 billion [7][9]. - The integrated energy business has shown comprehensive growth, enhancing revenue and profitability through diversification into kitchen appliances, insurance, and home products [9][10]. Financial Summary - The company reported a net profit of HK$3.46 billion for the first half of 2024, a decrease of 2.5% year-on-year, with gross margin at 18.6% and operating profit margin at 10.7% [7][8]. - For FY24-26, the main operating revenue is adjusted to HK$102.65 billion, HK$108.36 billion, and HK$114.39 billion, with corresponding net profits of HK$5.43 billion, HK$5.70 billion, and HK$5.98 billion [10]

Equity – Asia Research Presentation：储能行业10月月报 October Report on the Energy Storage Industry 吴杰Jie Wu j.wu@htisec.com 陈昊飞Haofei Chen haofei.chen@htisec.com 17 Oct 2024 本研究报告由海通国际分销，海通国际是由海通国际研究有限公司，海通证券印度私人有限公司，海通国际株式会社和海通国际证券集团其他各成员单位的证券 研究团队所组成的全球品牌，海通国际证券集团各成员分别在其许可的司法管辖区内从事证券活动。关于海通国际的分析师证明，重要披露声明和免责声明，请 参阅附录。(Please see appendix for English translation of the disclaimer) 概要： | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Group 1: Policy Overview - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market primarily through support measures rather than strong stimulus[1] - Recent policies include lowering mortgage rates, reducing down payment ratios, and adjusting purchase restrictions[4] - The "white list" of projects eligible for credit will expand, with a target of increasing credit scale to CNY 4 trillion by year-end[5] Group 2: Policy Effects - The effectiveness of the current policies relies on counter-cyclical fiscal measures, which have been marginally increased[7] - Recent data shows a significant improvement in real estate sales, with a 10-day average new home sales area in major cities reaching 226,000 square meters, a reduction in year-on-year decline from -32.4% to -4.5%[13] - First-tier cities have seen new home sales increase by approximately 30% year-on-year, while second-tier cities show slower recovery[14] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - The overall real estate market still faces significant challenges, including high inventory levels and ongoing price pressures[15] - The effectiveness of the policies may not meet expectations, posing risks to the stability of the real estate sector[20] - Historical data suggests that recovery in real estate markets can take 4-8 years, indicating a need for patience in observing policy impacts[17]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Citigroup (C.US) but indicates that revenue and profit exceeded expectations while net interest margin (NIM) fell short of expectations [1][7]. Core Insights - Citigroup's Q3 2024 revenue growth was 0.9% year-over-year, surpassing Bloomberg consensus forecast of -1.6% [2][7]. - Net profit attributable to common stockholders decreased by 8.7% year-over-year, better than the expected decline of 22.9% [2][7]. - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio increased to 13.7%, up by 0.1 percentage points year-over-year, aligning with expectations [4][7]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - Revenue for Q3 2024 was $20.315 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 0.9%, exceeding the estimate of $19.827 billion [6]. - Net interest income decreased by 3.4% year-over-year to $13.362 billion, better than the expected decline of 4.3% [6]. - Non-interest income increased by 10.2% year-over-year to $6.953 billion, surpassing the estimate of $6.255 billion [6]. Loan and Deposit Growth - Total deposits grew by 2.9% year-over-year to $1.310 trillion, exceeding the expected growth of 0.9% [3][6]. - Gross loans increased by 3.4% year-over-year to $688.922 billion, slightly below the expected growth of 3.6% [3][6]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 0.31%, down by 2 basis points from the previous quarter, better than the expected 0.37% [4][6]. - Total credit impairment losses amounted to $2.675 billion, slightly above the expected $2.661 billion [4][6]. Return Metrics - Return on Assets (ROA) was 0.52%, down by 0.06 percentage points year-over-year, exceeding the expected 0.46% [4][6]. - Return on Equity (ROE) was 6.2%, down by 0.5 percentage points year-over-year, better than the expected 5.4% [4][6]. - Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) was 7.0%, down by 0.7 percentage points year-over-year, exceeding the expected 5.9% [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for Bank of America (BAC US) [10][12][24]. Core Insights - Bank of America reported Q3 2024 earnings with revenue growth of +0.68% year-over-year, exceeding Bloomberg consensus forecast of +0.24% [2][5]. - Net profit attributable to common stockholders decreased by -12.2% year-over-year, better than the expected -14.7% [2][5]. - The provision for credit losses was $1,542 million in Q3 2024, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.53%, in line with expectations [2][5]. - The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio decreased to 11.80%, slightly below the forecast of 11.91% [2][5]. - Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) decreased to 12.76%, higher than the expected 12.35% [2][5]. - The net interest margin (NIM) was 1.92%, slightly below the forecast of 1.94% [2][5]. - Total loans and deposits grew by 2.5% and 2.4% year-over-year, respectively, both exceeding expectations [2][5]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit - Revenue for Q3 2024 was $25,492 million, beating the estimate of $25,382 million [4]. - Net interest income was $14,114 million, with a year-over-year change of -2.9%, better than the expected -4.3% [4]. - Non-interest income was $11,378 million, with a year-over-year change of +5.5%, exceeding the expected +5.1% [4]. Cost and Efficiency - The cost-to-income ratio increased by 2.1 percentage points to 65.02%, worse than the expected 64.85% [4]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio increased by 1 basis point to 0.53%, in line with expectations [4]. - The total provision for credit losses was $1,542 million, with a year-over-year change of +25.0%, slightly below the expected +25.2% [4]. Capital and Returns - ROE decreased by -1.80 percentage points to 9.44%, better than the expected 9.12% [4]. - ROTCE decreased by -2.71 percentage points to 12.76%, exceeding the expected 12.35% [4]. - The CET1 ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-over-year to 11.80%, below the expected 11.91% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yunnan Yuntianhua [3][4][12] Core Views - The recurring net profit increased by 21.42% year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2024, with total operating revenue of RMB 46.724 billion, down 12.34% year-on-year [2][8] - The company acquired minority shareholding in Phosphate Group, enhancing its control over the subsidiary [10][12] - The profit growth is attributed to rising phosphate fertilizer prices, decreased bulk raw material prices, and improved financial management [8][11] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of RMB 4.345 billion, with a significant increase in Q3 net profit of RMB 1.555 billion, up 55.40% year-on-year [2][8] - The company’s Q3 operating income was RMB 14.731 billion, reflecting a decline of 18.54% year-on-year [8] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be RMB 5.109 billion, RMB 5.253 billion, and RMB 5.323 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 2.79, RMB 2.86, and RMB 2.90 [12][6] Product Performance - Ammonium phosphate production was 3.729 million tonnes with sales of 3.592 million tonnes, generating RMB 12.106 billion in revenue, a 1.43% increase year-on-year [9] - Compound fertilizer production was 1.364 million tonnes with sales of 1.372 million tonnes, resulting in RMB 4.029 billion in revenue, a 15.20% increase year-on-year [9] - Urea production was 2.035 million tonnes with sales of 2.048 million tonnes, leading to RMB 4.339 billion in revenue, a decrease of 1.36% year-on-year [9] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on developing high-value-added inorganic fluoride and fluoropolymers, with established production capacities for iron phosphate and hydrofluoric acid [11][4] - The company plans to enhance its phosphate resource utilization, particularly in Zhenxiong phosphate resources, expecting to gain mining rights in the next two to three years [11][4]

Economic Overview - In September, the overall economic and financing activities remained at a low level, continuing the trend from previous months, with "government bonds + bills" being the main contributors to financing structure[1] - A new round of growth-stabilizing policies was announced on September 24, including a 20 basis point cut in reverse repo rates and reductions in existing mortgage rates[1] Financing Expectations - The series of cost-reduction and credit-expansion policies are expected to lead to a marginal recovery in financing data in Q4, particularly supported by government bond financing[1] - The short-term recovery in the real estate market may alleviate the pressure on household financing, contributing positively to overall financing conditions[1] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include the possibility that policy measures may not meet expectations and uncertainties surrounding the real estate market[1]

Policy Developments - The State Council issued the "Work Plan for Accelerating the Construction of a Dual Control System for Carbon Emissions," marking a significant step towards China's "dual carbon" goals[1] - Key targets include enhancing carbon emission statistics and monitoring capabilities by 2025, implementing a dual control system during the 14th Five-Year Plan, and establishing a comprehensive evaluation system for carbon neutrality post-peak[11] ESG Market Overview - The total net asset value of ESG funds in China reached CNY 469.2 billion in Q3 2024, showing a slight decrease of 0.5% from Q2 2024[24] - New ESG fund issuance totaled 21 funds in Q3 2024, with a total issuance scale of CNY 27.8 billion, reflecting historical median levels[24] Carbon Market Dynamics - In Q3 2024, the national carbon market's trading volume reached 17.188 million tons, a 27.7% increase from Q2 2024, with an average closing price of CNY 91.5 per ton, down 3.9% from the previous quarter[16] - Guangdong led in trading activity with a total carbon quota transaction volume of 1.93 million tons, while Beijing had the highest average transaction price at CNY 107.0 per ton[16] International ESG Trends - The U.S. carbon price continued to rise, while Canadian prices fell, and European prices slightly decreased, with the EU carbon market's futures trading volume at 2.23 billion tons, down 8.4% from Q2 2024[19] - The introduction of the EU's Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) aims to enhance corporate transparency and sustainability practices across various sectors[15]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the banking industry but discusses the potential positive impact of new loan products on market sentiment and valuations [4][7]. Core Insights - The introduction of loan products aimed at supporting share buybacks and strategic investments by listed companies and major shareholders is expected to enhance overall capital market valuations and positively influence market sentiment [4][6]. - Commercial banks are likely to prioritize risk control while complying with regulatory requirements, focusing on borrowers' financial conditions such as debt-to-asset ratios and cash flow [4][7]. - Companies that may receive credit first are likely to be those that are constituents of major stock indices or existing high-quality credit customers of the banks [4][7]. Summary by Sections Events - A state-owned super large bank has issued a draft proposal for loan products targeting share buybacks and strategic investments, aimed at listed companies and major shareholders holding over 5% of shares. The loans will have terms of 1-3 years with an interest rate of no less than 2.25% [3][6]. - The internal regulations for these loan products are expected to be released by the end of the month, with several companies already expressing interest [3][6]. Comments - The addition of new funds for share buybacks is anticipated to raise the overall valuation level of the capital market and positively influence market sentiment [4][7]. - Risk control will remain a primary consideration for commercial banks, which will assess borrowers based on their financial health and existing credit relationships [4][7].