Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies [1]. Core Insights - Amazon's fall sale on October 8-9, 2024, named Amazon Prime Deal Day, was relatively flat in performance due to increasing competition for traffic and the introduction of merchant fees [2][9]. - The fall sale aimed to fill the gap between the summer and Black Friday sales, marking the fourth time Amazon has held such an event in October [3]. - Compared to the summer Prime Day, the scale of the fall sale was smaller, with 2023 Prime Day sales reaching $12.7 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, while 2024 sales reached $14.2 billion, an 11% increase [3][4]. - The estimated GMV contribution from the fall sale is approximately $5 billion, accounting for about 2.3% of the quarterly GMV [4]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - Amazon's fall sale was held to bridge the gap between summer and Black Friday sales, with a focus on exclusive discounts for Prime members across various product categories [3]. - The event covered 19 countries, fewer than the 23 countries during the summer sale [3]. Sales Performance - Historical sales data shows that Amazon's Prime Day sales have seen significant growth since its inception in 2015, but growth has slowed post-2020 due to pandemic and inflation impacts [3]. - The 2023 Prime Big Deal Day saw over 150 million items sold, with a 16% year-over-year sales increase, but did not reach the scale of the summer Prime Day [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that competition from other retailers, such as Walmart and Best Buy, has intensified, impacting Amazon's sales performance [7]. - The introduction of a pitfall fee for merchants participating in promotional events has also reduced their willingness to engage [7]. Financial Projections - As of October 9, 2024, Amazon's market capitalization was $1.92 trillion, with a stock price of $185 [7]. - Revenue growth projections for Amazon from 2023 to 2026 are expected to average 10.7%, with AWS revenue projected to grow at 18.1% [8].

Group 1: Market Performance - In September, the Hang Seng Index rose by 17.5%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 33.5%[1] - The A-share market also saw significant gains, with the CSI 300 Index up by 21.0% and the ChiNext Index up by 37.6%[1] - The top three performing sectors in the Hong Kong market were Consumer Discretionary (30.3%), Healthcare (21.0%), and Information Technology (19.4%) in September[1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The rebound in the Hong Kong stock market was supported by a significant decline in valuations over the past four years, with the Hang Seng Index down 41.3% from its peak on February 21, 2021[2] - The market's strong performance was also driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which improved liquidity conditions for Hong Kong stocks[2] - Strong earnings reports from Hong Kong-listed companies contributed to the market's upward momentum, with a projected profit growth of over 10% for the Hang Seng Index constituents in 2024[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - Domestic policy measures are expected to support further gains in the Hong Kong market, with a series of financial policies announced since September 24 aimed at stabilizing the capital market[25] - The ongoing improvement in overseas liquidity, particularly following the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, is likely to attract foreign capital back to the Hong Kong market[25] - Risks include potential underperformance of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, insufficient domestic policy support, and slower-than-expected economic recovery[29]

Fiscal Policy and Economic Impact - The 2008 stimulus package of 4 trillion yuan is equivalent to at least 12 trillion yuan today, considering GDP and fiscal expenditure growth[2] - Fiscal expenditure is expected to increase by 6 trillion yuan annually in 2025-26, with an additional 4 trillion yuan each year[2] - Fiscal deficit to GDP ratio is projected to remain controllable, with potential reduction to below 4% within 2-3 years[2] Market Expectations and Investment Focus - Market expectations for fiscal expenditure increase are below 3 trillion yuan, with over 5 trillion yuan considered above expectations[2] - Key investment areas include autonomous and controllable core technologies, biomedicine, direct birth subsidies, and direct consumption subsidies[2] Historical Fiscal Data - Fiscal expenditure in 2008 was 62.6 trillion yuan, with a 26% increase from the previous year[3] - In 2020, fiscal expenditure was 245.7 trillion yuan, with a 3% increase from 2019[3] Risk Factors - Risks include slower-than-expected implementation of growth stabilization policies and weaker-than-expected domestic economic recovery[2] - Escalation of overseas uncertainties could also impact economic stability[2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price of RMB 54.39 based on a 21x PE valuation for 2024 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in the lead-acid battery sector, holding over 45% market share in lead-acid power batteries for light electric vehicles. In H1 2024, it achieved revenue of RMB 21.62 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.30%, and a net profit of RMB 1.19 billion, up 9.32% year-on-year [12][14]. - Favorable industry policies are emerging, such as subsidies for electric bicycle trade-ins and relaxed weight limits for lead-acid battery models, positioning the company to benefit as an industry leader [12][14]. - The company is actively upgrading its product offerings and investing in advanced technologies, including new lead-acid and lithium-ion batteries, hydrogen engine systems, and sodium-ion batteries [12][14]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 50.87 billion, RMB 54.42 billion, and RMB 58.45 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.5%, 7.0%, and 7.4% [3][5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are RMB 2.51 billion, RMB 3.09 billion, and RMB 3.47 billion, reflecting growth rates of 9.1%, 23.0%, and 12.3% [3][5]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 17.5% in 2024, improving to 18.4% by 2026 [3][5]. Product and Market Expansion - The company is enhancing its global strategy, with a new assembly plant in Vietnam expected to reach a capacity of 10 million units annually by 2025. In H1 2024, overseas sales revenue increased by 34.57% year-on-year to RMB 129 million [2][14]. - Continuous product innovation includes the launch of high-performance batteries for electric motorcycles and advanced energy storage systems, indicating a strong commitment to technology leadership [12][14].

Equity – Asia Research [Table_Title] Morning Meeting Summary | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------------------------------|-------------------------|-------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | ASML; \n09 Oct 2024 | 软通动力 / | 经纬恒润 | / 赛意信息 | / 恩华药业 / 百龙创园 ; 中电控股 / 神州信息 / 肇民科 ...

Group 1: European Tour Insights - The European tour lasted 11-12 days, covering 22 companies across various sectors in Germany, France, and the UK, including major consumer brands like L'Oréal, AccorHotels, and Diageo [1][5] - The tour provided valuable insights into the operational strategies and market positions of leading companies in the consumer sector, highlighting the importance of product innovation and market adaptability [2][5] Group 2: Company Performance and Outlook - L'Oréal is identified as a strong investment target due to its solid fundamentals, with a competitive edge stemming from its product innovation and superior product mix, maintaining growth above industry averages [2][3] - AccorHotels and InterContinental Hotels have set RevPAR growth targets of 4-5% and 7-9% respectively, indicating robust market positioning without downward revisions in growth expectations [2][3] - Diageo's revenue distribution shows 50% from the US and 25-30% from Europe, with a new normal growth rate of around 3% expected as inventory clearance phases out [2][3] Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Trends - UK long-term funds are showing a more positive allocation towards Chinese premium consumer stocks than previously anticipated, driven by low valuations and improving dividend yields [3][6] - Investor interest in various consumer sub-sectors ranks beer, sports, and wine as top priorities, with a notable shift towards travel-related investments prior to the recent market rally [3][6] - The overall sentiment among UK investors is more optimistic compared to Asian investors, particularly regarding H-share stocks over A-share stocks [3][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a target price of RMB 55.93, indicating a potential upside of 52% from the current valuation [11]. Core Insights - The company has seen significant revenue growth, with 2024H1 revenue reaching RMB 12.53 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.98%. However, net profit attributable to shareholders was negative at RMB -154 million, down 176.17% year-on-year [2][14]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion and has established new subsidiaries in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, enhancing its global service delivery capabilities [3][5]. - The company has successfully completed the acquisition of Tongfang Computer and Tongfang International, which are expected to enhance its product offerings and market position [5][14]. - The report highlights the company's advancements in AI capabilities and its commitment to developing AIPC products, showcasing new AI products at the 2024 World AI Conference [6][14]. - The company has achieved full-stack coverage of the HarmonyOS ecosystem, with significant investments in software development and successful commercial applications across various industries [7][14]. Financial Summary - For 2024E, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of RMB 31.07 billion, a significant increase of 76.7% compared to 2023. The net profit is expected to be RMB 655 million, with an EPS of RMB 0.69 [4][13]. - The report provides a detailed breakdown of revenue by business segments, indicating that digital technology services and computing products are key contributors to overall revenue [12][13]. - The company's gross profit margin is projected to decline to 13.8% in 2024E, down from 19.3% in 2023, reflecting increased competition and rising costs [4][13].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for premium consumer names in China, with UK long-term funds showing more aggressive allocation than market expectations [3][6]. Core Insights - The European tour involved visits to 22 companies across various sectors, including consumer, automotive, industrial, and healthcare, yielding valuable insights [1][5]. - L'Oréal is highlighted as a solid investment target due to its strong fundamentals and market position in the beauty sector, with a focus on product innovation and pricing strategies [2]. - AccorHotels and InterContinental Hotels maintain growth targets for revenue per available room (RevPAR) of 4-5% and 7-9% respectively, indicating resilience in the hospitality sector [2]. - Diageo's revenue distribution shows 50% from the US and 25-30% from Europe, with a new normal growth rate of around 3% expected [2]. - SAP is recognized for its robust growth driven by cloud services, contributing approximately 50% to its revenue with a growth rate of about 25% [2]. - UK long-term investors are increasingly optimistic about the A/H stock market, driven by low valuations and improving dividend yields [3][6]. Summary by Sections European Tour Insights - The tour covered Germany, France, and the UK, visiting cities like Munich, Paris, and London, and included meetings with major companies across multiple sectors [1][5]. - The focus was on identifying undervalued consumer investment opportunities in the A/H market [3][6]. Consumer Sector Highlights - L'Oréal, AccorHotels, and InterContinental Hotels are identified as high-quality assets with strong growth potential [2]. - The report ranks investor interest in consumer sub-sectors, with beer, sports, and wine being the most favored [3][6]. Investor Sentiment - UK long-term funds are showing a more positive stance towards Chinese consumer stocks compared to Asian investors, with a preference for H-shares over A-shares [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company with a target price of RMB 118.38 for the next six months, based on a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 2.5 times for 2024 [4][10]. Core Insights - The company has achieved steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of RMB 2.03 billion in H1 2024, representing a 19% year-over-year increase. However, it recorded a net loss of RMB 333 million, compared to a loss of RMB 89 million in the same period last year [10]. - Significant investments in research and development (R&D) have been made, with R&D expenses amounting to RMB 656 million, RMB 968 million, and RMB 537 million in 2022, 2023, and H1 2024 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 44%, 48%, and 26% [10]. - The revenue growth is primarily driven by advancements in intelligent driving, new energy, chassis control, and self-developed software, with a focus on meeting the customized needs of various automakers [10]. - The company has developed a comprehensive product ecosystem for intelligent connected vehicles, including V2X vehicle-road collaboration products and a full-stack self-developed strategy [10]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are RMB 5.68 billion, RMB 6.87 billion, and RMB 8.25 billion respectively, with expected net profits of RMB -183 million, RMB 63 million, and RMB 189 million [4][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB -1.52, RMB 0.53, and RMB 1.58 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][10]. - The company’s revenue growth rates for electronic products, R&D services, and high-level intelligent driving solutions are expected to be 18%/17%/16%, 30%/29%/28%, and 100%/90%/80% respectively from 2024 to 2026 [4][10]. Business Segmentation - The company’s revenue from electronic products is projected to grow from RMB 3.42 billion in 2023 to RMB 4.03 billion in 2024, with a gross margin of 20% [5]. - Revenue from R&D services and solutions is expected to increase from RMB 1.23 billion in 2023 to RMB 1.60 billion in 2024, maintaining a gross margin of 42% [5]. - The high-level intelligent driving solutions segment is anticipated to see substantial growth, with revenue expected to rise from RMB 12.15 million in 2023 to RMB 24.29 million in 2024, achieving a gross margin of 10% [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating for CLP Holdings [3][31]. Core Views - CLP Holdings is a century-old energy operator rooted in Hong Kong, with diversified operations across the Asia Pacific region [5]. - The company has shown significant profit recovery in 2023, with a net profit of HK$6.655 billion, reflecting a 620.2% year-on-year increase [7][10]. - The company aims to achieve a net-zero power generation target by 2050, aligning with Hong Kong's climate action goals [18]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - CLP Holdings is one of the largest private power companies in the Asia Pacific, with operations in Hong Kong, mainland China, Australia, India, Taiwan, and Thailand [5]. - The company operates a diverse generation portfolio, including coal, gas, nuclear, wind, hydro, and solar power [5]. 2. Financial Performance - Revenue has fluctuated from HK$85.689 billion in 2019 to HK$97.169 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of approximately 0.4% [7]. - The company’s operating profit before fair value changes was HK$101.27 billion in 2023, with Hong Kong contributing 76% [10]. - The company maintained a stable dividend policy, with a dividend yield of 4.81% in 2023 [14]. 3. Market Position - CLP Holdings is one of the two major electricity suppliers in Hong Kong, providing power to over 2.79 million customers [5]. - The company’s operations are regulated under a scheme that guarantees a return on investment, ensuring stable revenue streams [20]. 4. Renewable Energy Transition - The company is committed to expanding its renewable energy portfolio, with significant growth potential in mainland China, Australia, and India [26]. - CLP Holdings plans to phase out fossil fuel assets and increase renewable energy capacity, aiming for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 2030 [29]. 5. Future Outlook - The report forecasts revenues of HK$902.66 billion, HK$938.67 billion, and HK$985.31 billion for 2024-2026, with net profits projected at HK$69.41 billion, HK$73.38 billion, and HK$75.63 billion respectively [31].