研究报告 Research Report 7 Oct 2024 中国 & 中国食品饮料 China (A-share) & China (Overseas) Food & Beverage 政策红利提前兑现，消费值得长期持有 Policy Dividends are Realized in Advance, and Consumption is Worth Holding for the Long Term [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------ ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an **OUTPERFORM** rating to Shanghai Hajime Advanced Material Technology with a target price of **RMB 18.48** [1] Core Views - The company achieved strong growth in the first half of 2024, with revenue reaching **RMB 340 million**, up **18.32% YoY**, and net profit attributable to shareholders at **RMB 78 million**, up **55.20% YoY** [1] - Gross profit margin improved to **35.38%**, up **4.08 percentage points**, and net profit margin reached **22.77%**, up **5.41 percentage points**, driven by efficient project management and cost control [1] - In Q2 2024, revenue was **RMB 182 million**, up **16.73% YoY** and **15.35% QoQ**, with net profit at **RMB 42 million**, up **41.72% YoY** and **18.49% QoQ** [1] - The company announced an equity incentive plan, granting **1.496 million restricted shares**, representing **0.62%** of total share capital, to **57 employees** at a grant price of **RMB 6.88 per share** [2] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are **RMB 161 million**, **RMB 203 million**, and **RMB 250 million**, with EPS of **RMB 0.66**, **RMB 0.84**, and **RMB 1.03**, respectively [2] Financial Performance and Forecasts - Revenue for 2024E is projected at **RMB 804 million**, up **35.9% YoY**, with net profit at **RMB 161 million**, up **55.4% YoY** [3] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at **34.1%** from 2024E to 2026E [3] - ROE is forecasted to increase from **9.0%** in 2023 to **15.3%** in 2026E [3] - Revenue from automotive parts is expected to grow **45.0% YoY** in 2024E, reaching **RMB 604 million**, with a gross margin of **34.99%** [4] - Revenue from precision molds is projected to grow **40.0% YoY** in 2024E, reaching **RMB 68 million**, with a gross margin of **41.27%** [4] Business Overview - The company specializes in the development and application of special engineering plastics, focusing on high-precision plastic parts and molds for industries such as automotive, home appliances, and medical devices [6] - It has obtained **78 patents**, including **4 invention patents**, **72 utility model patents**, and **2 design patents** [6] - The company has passed certifications such as **IATF16949:2016**, **ISO14001:2015**, and **OHSAS18001:2007** [6] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company is valued at **28x PE** for 2024E, with a target price of **RMB 18.48** [2] - Comparable companies in the industry have an average PE of **27x** for 2024E, with an average EPS of **RMB 1.09** [5]

Investment Rating - Investment advice indicates that over the past decade, the current rise in H-share banks is supported by lower trading volumes for China Merchants Bank compared to the period from October 2020 to January 2021, but stronger than in May and August 2017 [9]. Core Insights - The performance of state-owned banks is relatively weaker compared to both 2020 and 2017, with China Merchants Bank's price increase significantly outpacing that of state-owned banks over the past two weeks [9]. - China Merchants Bank's 2024E price-to-book (PB) ratio exceeds 1.0x, while state-owned banks' PB is currently below 0.5x [9]. - Despite China Merchants Bank having a higher return on equity (ROE) compared to state-owned banks, there is no clear outperformance in profit expectations, particularly regarding year-on-year growth in pre-provision operating profit and net profit attributable to shareholders [9]. - If the Hong Kong stock market undergoes a correction in the short term, the extent of China Merchants Bank's pullback may be greater [9]. Summary of Related News - As of now, there is no official progress on the creation of special loans for stock repurchases and share increases [10]. - Pictet Asset Management has stated that it does not hold the 8.32% subscription rights for China Construction Bank H-shares as disclosed by Hong Kong Exchange filings [10].

Industry Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive outlook for the real estate-linked appliance sector, with low valuations providing a strong safety margin and potential for valuation and performance recovery [1][3] Core Views - Central policies, including interest rate cuts and demand stimulation, are expected to benefit leading real estate-linked appliance companies [1][3] - The kitchen appliance sector's valuation is low, with strong safety margins, and long-term growth is anticipated as real estate recovers [1][3] - Leading companies in the household appliance sector maintain high dividend yields, with average dividend yields at the 80% quantile [2][3] Company Analysis Traditional Kitchen Appliances - Hangzhou Robam Appliances, Opple Lighting, Vatti, and Vanward Electric have market capitalization rankings of 15%/17%/43%/58% and PE-TTM valuations of 12.18x/14.36x/12.86x/14.28x [1][3] Integrated Stoves - Marssenger, Zhejiang Meida Industrial, Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co Ltd, and SANFER have market capitalization rankings of 11%/5%/6%/11% and PE valuations of 18.09x/9.03x/15.12x/9.18x [1][3] High Dividend Yield Companies - Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances Inc of Zhuhai, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Home Appliances Group, and Zhejiang Supor have dividend yields of 4.7%/6.1%/3.4%/3.7%/4.2%, at 82%/37%/92%/74%/85% quantiles [2][3] - Minimum dividend yields for these companies were 1.6%/4.5%/1.2%/1.2%/1.6%, with potential increases of 191%/36%/186%/199%/157% [2][3] - Median dividend yields were 3.2%/6.4%/2.3%/2.9%/2.2%, with potential increases of 45%/-5%/48%/25%/88% [2][3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on high dividend, stable growth, low valuation appliance leaders like Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances Inc of Zhuhai, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances Group [2][3] - Consider growth companies expanding globally, such as Beijing Roborock Tech and TCL Electronics Holdings [2][3] - Real estate-linked leaders like Hangzhou Robam Appliances, Vatti, Opple Lighting, and flexible integrated stove leaders like Marssenger, Zhejiang Meida Industrial, and Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co Ltd are also recommended [2][3]

Macroeconomic Overview - Real wages in Japan continued to grow for the second consecutive month, with a 0.4% year-on-year increase in July, driven by spring wage negotiations and summer bonuses [2][4] - The consumer confidence index slightly decreased to 36.7 in August, with improvements in the willingness to purchase durable goods, while overall living conditions remained stable [2][4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% year-on-year in August, with core CPI increasing by 2.8% and the Core Consumer Price Index (CCPI) up by 2.0% [4][6] Industry Performance - Despite high base effects, consumer discretionary spending showed strong growth, with retail and dining benefiting from an additional holiday in August [6][16] - The demand for emergency food surged due to recent earthquakes and typhoons, impacting store operating days but still resulting in strong same-store sales growth for listed companies [6][7] - The retail sales of food and beverages in July were approximately 4,167 billion yen, showing a slight decline of 0.1% year-on-year, while convenience store sales showed mixed results [7][10] Consumer Discretionary Sector - Major restaurant chains reported significant same-store sales growth in August, with companies like Sally's and Skylark achieving year-on-year increases of 22.3% and 13.4% respectively [16][18] - The average spending on dining out for households increased by 7.3% year-on-year in July, indicating a recovery in consumer spending on dining experiences [16][18] - The duty-free sales from January to July exceeded the total for the entire year of 2013, highlighting a strong rebound in tourism-related spending [6][16] Consumer Staples Sector - The retail sales of essential goods, particularly emergency food items, saw a notable increase due to heightened demand from natural disasters [7][10] - The same-store sales for major retailers like Aeon and PPIH showed positive growth, with Aeon reporting a 5.8% increase in August [7][10] - The average spending on essential food items remained stable, with slight year-on-year increases in categories such as rice and beverages [10][12] Clothing and Apparel - The average spending on clothing for households decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in July, while same-store sales for major apparel brands like Uniqlo and ABC-MART showed strong growth [16][20] - Department stores reported a 5.5% increase in sales year-on-year in July, with luxury goods driving significant sales growth [20][21] - The performance of specialty stores like Muji and Nitori also improved, with same-store sales increasing by 12.8% and 7.8% respectively [20][21]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Tesla, but it discusses the potential for significant advancements and market impact from the upcoming Robotaxi launch, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future performance [2][3]. Core Insights - Tesla is set to unveil its new autonomous taxi, Robotaxi, on October 10, 2024, which is expected to showcase advancements in autonomous driving and robotics technology [2][3]. - The Robotaxi, tentatively named "Cybercab," is anticipated to rely entirely on Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, potentially eliminating traditional driving controls and enhancing interior space efficiency [3][5]. - The Cybercab is projected to feature a next-generation AI5 platform with computing power of 3000-5000 TOPS, significantly surpassing the current HW4 platform [3][5]. - The operating cost of the Cybercab is estimated at $0.18 per mile, which is substantially lower than traditional taxi services, positioning Tesla to challenge the dominance of Uber and Lyft in the ride-sharing market [3][5]. - The report highlights the potential for Tesla's business model to shift from hardware sales to software services, which could lead to higher profit margins [3][5]. - The launch of the Cybercab is seen as a pivotal moment for the commercialization of autonomous driving technology, with 2025 expected to be a key year for global Robotaxi commercialization [3][5]. Summary by Sections Event Overview - Tesla will host the "We, Robot" event to unveil the Robotaxi, marking a significant moment in the company's history since the Model 3 launch [2][4]. Technological Advancements - The Cybercab is expected to introduce revolutionary design changes and a new profit model focused on software services, with mass production anticipated in the first half of 2025 [3][5]. Market Impact - The introduction of the Cybercab is likely to disrupt the ride-sharing industry, allowing Tesla to expand its market reach through a platform that enables vehicle owners to share their idle Tesla cars [3][5]. - The report suggests that Tesla's entry into the ride-sharing market could lead to significant transformations, whether through competition or collaboration with existing players like Uber [3][5]. Competitive Landscape - Tesla faces challenges from competitors such as Waymo and Cruise, which are also advancing in the autonomous vehicle space [3][5]. - The report notes that 2025 may become a landmark year for Robotaxi commercialization, with various domestic players also vying for market share [3][5]. Broader Technological Vision - The "We, Robot" event may also reveal updates on other key product lines, such as the Optimus humanoid robot, emphasizing Tesla's commitment to AI and robotics innovation [3][5].

Consumption Trends - During the National Day holiday, tourism consumption in Guangdong, Liaoning, and Sichuan provinces saw significant growth, with tourist numbers increasing by 6.3% in Guangdong and 19.8% in Liaoning, leading to a tourism revenue increase of 21.6%[9][10] - Movie consumption was relatively flat, with average daily box office revenue declining by 12.8% compared to the previous year, despite the first day surpassing last year's figures[9][10] - The average ticket price for movies dropped to 40.4 yuan, the lowest since 2021, contributing to the decline in box office revenue[9][10] Real Estate Market - New real estate policies implemented at the end of September led to a significant improvement in property sales, with average daily new home sales in 30 major cities increasing by 67.7% year-on-year[19][20] - The sales area of second-hand homes also saw a substantial increase, with the average sales area during the week being nearly 13 times that of the same period last year[19][20] Economic Indicators - The production synchronization index for September was reported at 4.81%, slightly down from 4.97% in August, indicating a marginal slowdown in production growth[24] - The export synchronization index improved to 7.16% in September from 6.71% in August, suggesting a positive trend in export activities[24] Price Movements - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 2.0% decrease in pork prices, while vegetable prices increased by 0.2%, leading to a year-on-year growth of 28.1%[41] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 5.6%, with significant increases in energy and building materials prices, including an 8.4% rise in crude oil prices[41] Market Risks - Potential risks include a sharper-than-expected decline in external demand and insufficient growth-stabilizing policies[44]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Trends - The Middle East situation continues to escalate, impacting global markets[8] - The EU has approved a proposal to impose tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, with rates up to 35.3%[9] - Japan's new Prime Minister, Kishida, emphasizes combating deflation as a key economic priority[9] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank are signaling dovish monetary policies, with potential rate cuts on the horizon[10] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations have decreased, with a current forecast of a 50 basis point cut by year-end[10][15] - Colombia's central bank has reduced rates by 50 basis points to 10.25%[10] Group 3: Asset Performance - International oil prices surged by 7.9% due to geopolitical tensions, closing at $78 per barrel[11] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 10.2%, marking its highest level since February 2022[11] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield increased by 23 basis points to 3.98%, while the dollar index strengthened by 2.1% to 102.5[11] Group 4: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. added 254,000 jobs in September, significantly above the market expectation of 150,000[13] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.2%[13] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI remained at 47.2, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 54.9, indicating a divergence in economic sectors[13][15] Group 5: European Economic Conditions - Eurozone inflation has eased to below 2% for the first time since June 2021, with HICP growth at 1.8%[19] - The unemployment rate in the EU remains low at 5.9%, with the Eurozone at 6.4%[19] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the Eurozone showed a year-on-year decline of 2.3%[19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for several key companies in the food and beverage sector, including Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Kweichow Moutai, among others [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that policy dividends are being realized ahead of schedule, making consumption stocks worth holding for the long term. It suggests that the risks associated with investing in consumer stocks have significantly decreased, and the sector is expected to benefit from a recovery in essential consumption [2][3][4]. - The report highlights that while the recovery in essential consumption is lagging behind overall economic recovery, the nature of essential consumption means that even if performance is poor, it is more likely to manifest as a slowdown in growth rather than a significant decline [2][3]. - The report notes that the dividend yields of essential consumer goods companies are becoming increasingly attractive, with the potential for further increases in dividend rates, especially in the context of global central banks generally lowering interest rates [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Revenue Forecast - In September, the revenue for the high-end and above liquor industry reached 52.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. The cumulative revenue from January to September was 321.4 billion yuan, up 12.9% year-on-year [4]. - The revenue for the mass-market liquor segment in September was 14.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.4%, with a cumulative revenue of 165.7 billion yuan, down 3.4% year-on-year [4]. - The beer industry reported a revenue of 16.1 billion yuan in September, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, with a cumulative revenue of 147.3 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year [4]. Price Tracking - The report provides insights into the wholesale prices of major liquor brands, indicating fluctuations in prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with significant year-to-date declines noted [14][15][20]. - The report also tracks the prices of various food and beverage products, highlighting the competitive landscape and pricing strategies of leading companies in the sector [14][15]. Consumer Demand and Market Trends - The report indicates that consumer demand remains weak, with expectations for improvement around the National Day holiday. It notes that the Mid-Autumn Festival did not significantly boost consumption as anticipated [3][4]. - The report suggests that while some sectors are experiencing growth, others, particularly mass-market liquor and dairy products, are facing challenges, with ongoing price competition and inventory management issues [4][9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on sectors with short policy transmission and high marginal improvement, particularly in consumer sectors benefiting from government-issued vouchers [3][8]. Core Insights - Multiple regions are issuing consumer vouchers to stimulate consumption, with significant allocations in Shanghai, Sichuan, and Heilongjiang [7][8]. - Historical data indicates that consumer vouchers have effectively leveraged consumption, with notable examples from Shanghai and Anhui demonstrating high redemption rates and substantial consumption stimulation [7][8]. Summary by Sections Consumer Voucher Initiatives - Shanghai plans to issue RMB 500 million in vouchers, with RMB 360 million allocated for dining and RMB 90 million for accommodation [6][7]. - Sichuan is set to allocate over RMB 400 million for 2024 vouchers, focusing on home furnishings and local products [6][7]. - Heilongjiang will distribute RMB 54.30 million for a month-long promotion targeting autos, appliances, and dining [6][7]. Historical Effectiveness of Vouchers - In 2022, Shanghai's vouchers achieved a leverage ratio of 3.67 and a redemption rate of 97% [7][8]. - Anhui's 2023 vouchers worth RMB 1.87 billion stimulated over RMB 36 billion in consumption [7][8]. - Jiangsu's RMB 200 million in subsidies led to a RMB 2.72 billion increase in appliance sales [7][8]. Sector Recommendations - Dining and hotels are expected to benefit significantly from the voucher leverage, with a focus on high-quality service providers [3][8]. - Internet e-commerce, particularly Meituan-W and Alibaba Group, is recommended due to strong fundamentals and cyclical recovery potential [3][8]. - The beauty and care sector is highlighted for its resilience and potential for growth, with a focus on high cost-performance brands [3][8]. - Offline retail is advised to focus on regional leaders and valuable assets, with specific recommendations for companies like Chongqing Department Store and Wangfujing Group [3][8].