[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/机械工业 证券研究报告 行业跟踪报告 [Table_InvestInfo] 2024 上半年船舶行业新接订单量同比增 长 43.9%；扬子江船业 2024H1 净利润同比 增加 77.2% [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行业运行：24H1 船舶行业新接订单量同比增长 43.9%。根据中国船舶工业行业 协会公众号数据，2024 年上半年船舶行业完工量达 2502 万载重吨，同比增长 18.4%，新接订单量达 5422 万载重吨,同比增长 43.9%,在手订单量达到 17155 万载重吨，同比增长 38.6%。1-6 月，中国造船完工量、新接订单量、在手订单 量分别占世界市场份额的 55%、74.7%、58.9%。出口方面，上半年我国船舶出 口金额达到 206.7 亿美元。 政策更新：中共中央、国务院发布《关于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意 见》。中共中央、国务院发布《关于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意见》， 提出推广低碳交通运输工具、推动船舶、航空器、非道路移动机械等采用清洁 动力，加快淘汰老旧运输工具，推进零排放货运，加强可持续航空燃料研发应 用， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Ganfeng Lithium, with a target price of RMB 43.94 per share based on a 26x PE for 2024 [14]. Core Insights - Ganfeng Lithium reported a revenue of RMB 32.97 billion for 2023, a decrease of 21.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 4.95 billion, down 75.9% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a revenue of RMB 7.29 billion, down 48.7% year-on-year, with a net loss of RMB 1.06 billion [10][12]. - The company is a global leader in the lithium ecosystem, possessing unique industrialized technologies for lithium extraction from brine, ore, and recycling, and producing over 40 types of lithium compounds and metal lithium products [11][12]. - Ganfeng Lithium's lithium battery business is expanding, covering various battery types and achieving significant production and sales growth in 2023 [13]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, Ganfeng Lithium achieved a revenue of RMB 32.97 billion, down 21.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 4.95 billion, down 75.9% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of RMB 8 per 10 shares [10][12]. - The company produced 104,300 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2023, an increase of 7.3% year-on-year, and sold 101,800 tons of LCE, up 4.6% year-on-year, generating RMB 24.47 billion in lithium business revenue [11][12]. Business Operations - Ganfeng Lithium holds equity in 15 lithium resources, with a total of 48.04 million tons of LCE in equity lithium resources as of the end of 2023. The company is advancing the construction of the Goulamina spodumene mine and Mariana salt lake, expecting production to start in 2024 [12][13]. - The lithium battery business has become a significant performance pillar, with production of power storage batteries reaching 10.6 GWh, up 56.5% year-on-year, and consumer electronic batteries reaching 280 million units, up 71.5% year-on-year [13]. Future Outlook - The forecast for EPS from 2024 to 2026 is RMB 1.69, 2.27, and 2.88 per share, respectively, reflecting the company's competitive advantage and resource reserves [14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the relevant market benchmark by more than 10% [8][20][27]. Core Insights - The Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) sector is experiencing high prosperity, with the company achieving a revenue of CNY 1.37 billion in the first half of 2024, representing a growth of 38.4% year-on-year, driven primarily by increased outpatient volume [17][19]. - The company added 16 new stores in the first half of 2024, significantly accelerating its expansion, particularly in new first-tier cities such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai [18][20]. - Profitability metrics show improvement, with a net profit of CNY 0.11 billion (+15.1%) and an adjusted net profit of CNY 0.15 billion (+45.3%) in the first half of 2024, alongside a gross profit margin of 29.4% [19][20]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been slightly increased to CNY 3.067 billion and CNY 3.882 billion, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.0% and 26.6% [8][20]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to be CNY 0.415 billion for 2024 and CNY 0.539 billion for 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.1% and 30.1% [8][20]. Financial Metrics - The company reported a gross profit margin of 29.4% in the first half of 2024, with a net profit margin of 10.8% [19][20]. - The average customer price increased to CNY 573 (+4.9%), attributed to the company's growth in first-tier cities [17][19]. Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.13 per share, totaling approximately CNY 28.89 million, and has repurchased 2.8 million shares, accounting for 1.1% of total share capital [19][20].

Industry Overview - Japanese companies hold approximately 52% of the global semiconductor materials market, with North America and Europe holding around 15% each [4] - Japan dominates 14 out of 19 key semiconductor materials, including silicon wafers, photoresists, CMP materials, and epoxy molding compounds [4] - Japanese firms hold significant market shares in key materials: 56% for 300mm wafers, 87% for ArF photoresists, and 100% for EUV photoresists [5] Photoresist Market - Photoresists are critical materials for pattern transfer in semiconductor manufacturing, with different types used for various technology nodes [8] - Japanese companies dominate 90% of the global photoresist market, with JSR, TOK, Shin-Etsu, and Sumitomo Chemical leading the sector [10] - The global photoresist market is expected to grow from $2.64 billion in 2022 to $4.5 billion by 2030, with a 6.9% CAGR [15] - Inorganic photoresists, particularly those containing hafnium-zirconium nanoparticles, are emerging as a potential solution for sub-10nm nodes [12][13] Key Companies - Photoresist - Tokyo Ohka Kogyo (TOK) holds 23.1% of the global photoresist market, with strong positions in KrF (33.7%) and g/i-line (18.6%) photoresists [18] - TOK's revenue is expected to grow 19.2% to ¥193.4 billion in FY2024, with operating profit projected to increase 29% to ¥29.3 billion [18] - The company is expanding production capacity, with new facilities planned in Japan and South Korea to meet growing demand [26] Silicon Wafer Market - Silicon wafers are essential for 95% of semiconductor devices and 90% of ICs, with three main types: polished, epitaxial, and SOI wafers [29] - Japanese companies Shin-Etsu and SUMCO hold the top two positions in the global silicon wafer market, with 28% and 22.9% market share respectively [32] - The global silicon wafer market is projected to grow from $12.2 billion in 2023 to $17.5 billion by 2032, with a 4.1% CAGR [34] Key Companies - Silicon Wafers - Shin-Etsu Chemical holds 28% of the global silicon wafer market, with 60% of its electronic materials revenue coming from silicon wafers [36][41] - The company's silicon wafer business focuses on 300mm wafers, with 60% used for memory and 40% for logic applications [41] - Shin-Etsu also leads in EUV photoresists with 35% market share and ArF photomask blanks with 60% market share [41] Epoxy Molding Compounds (EMC) Market - EMC is used in over 95% of microelectronic devices, providing protection and insulation for semiconductor chips [47] - The global EMC market is expected to grow from $7.4 billion in 2021 to $9.9 billion by 2027, driven by EV and data center demand [53] - Japanese and US companies dominate the high-end EMC market, while Chinese manufacturers mainly serve domestic demand for traditional packaging [51] Key Companies - EMC - Sumitomo Bakelite holds approximately 40% of the global EMC market, with semiconductor materials contributing 29% of revenue but 52% of operating profit [55][57] - The company plans to expand production capacity in China and Taiwan to meet growing demand, targeting ¥112 billion in semiconductor materials revenue by 2026 [59][60] - Sumitomo Bakelite is focusing on advanced materials for 5G, automotive, and power module applications, with a goal to increase operating margin to 20.5% by 2026 [59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for WuXi XDC Cayman (2268 HK) with a target price of HKD 33.45, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 18.56 [3][7]. Core Insights - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth in H1 2024, with operating revenue reaching RMB 1.665 billion (+67.6%), a gross profit margin of 32.1% (+9.0 percentage points), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 489 million (+175.5%) [4][20]. - The revenue growth is attributed to an increase in the total number of projects, more projects entering later development stages, and enhanced production capacity to meet rising customer demand for CRDMO services [5][21]. - The order backlog as of H1 2024 was USD 842 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 105.0%, indicating robust demand and effective capacity expansion plans [5][21]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are RMB 3.434 billion, RMB 4.831 billion, and RMB 6.382 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 62%, 41%, and 32% respectively [7][22]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 828 million, RMB 1.147 billion, and RMB 1.554 billion for the same period, with growth rates of 192%, 39%, and 35% respectively [7][22]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to be RMB 922 million, RMB 1.250 billion, and RMB 1.680 billion, with growth rates of 124%, 36%, and 34% [7][22]. Market Position and Client Base - The company has established partnerships with 13 of the top 20 pharmaceutical companies globally, contributing to 28.9% of its revenue in H1 2024 [5][21]. - The number of drug discovery projects reached 538, with 111 new projects added in H1 2024, showcasing the company's expanding project pipeline [5][21]. Capacity Expansion - The company is on track to enhance its production capacity, with new facilities expected to begin operations in late 2024 and early 2026 [5][21]. - The workforce has increased to 1,496 employees, a year-on-year growth of 72.2%, supporting the company's expansion efforts [5][21].

研究报告 Research Report 23 Aug 2024 日本可选消费 & 必需消费 Japan Discretionary & Staples HTI 日本消费行业 7 月跟踪报告：实际工资重回正增长，多数子行业迎来高基数 Real wages saw the first increase in 27 months, most sub-industries faced with tough comps in Q3 [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_Info] 宏观：二季度内需拉动 GDP 增长，7 月以来日元强劲升值。7 月日 本消费者信心指数上升至 36.7，CCCPI 同比上升 1.9%。6 月日本实 际工资指数同比上升 1.1%，是时隔 27 个月以来首次正增长。6 月 两人以上家庭平均消费支出实际增速为-1.4%，连续第二个月下 滑。二季度实际 GDP 环比增长 0.8%，其中个人消费在连续四个季 度负增长后首次环比增长 1%，内需对经济增长的贡献为 0.9 个百分 点。7 月底日本央行宣布加息 15 个基点，日元汇率强劲反弹。 行业：多 ...

研究报告 Research Report 23 Aug 2024 华鲁恒升 Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Chemical (600426 CH) 24 年上半年扣非归母净利润同比增长 32.14%，看好新项目投产的成长空间 Recurring net ptofit up 32.14% YOY in 2024H1; Positive with growth potential of new projects [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------| | [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 | Maintain OUTPERFORM | | 评级 | 优于大市 OUTPERFORM | | 现价 | Rmb21.93 | | 目标价 | Rmb36.89 | | HTI ESG | 2.4-3.0-4.5 | | E-S-G: 0- ...

[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 22 Aug 2024 中国能源 China (Overseas) Energy 国际能源与 ESG 周报 (8/12-8/18): 中国配电网假设迎来新机遇，美国 7 月风光发电量 超过煤电 Global Energy and ESG Updates: China's distribution grid assuming new opportunities, wind and solar power generation in the United States surpassing coal power generation in July 杨斌 Bin Yang 余小龙 Bruce Yu 毛琼佩 Olivia Mao bin.yang@htisec.com bruce.xl.yu@htisec.com olivia.qp.mao@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 热点速评 Flash Analysis [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary ...

研究报告 Research Report 22 Aug 2024 兴发集团 Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group (600141 CH) 2024H1 扣非后净利润同比增长 37.45%，重点项目有序推进 Recurring net profit up 37.45%; key projects are progressing in an orderly manner. [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------|---------------------| | [Table_Info] 维持优于大市 Maintain OUTPERFORM | | | 评级 | 优于大市 OUTPERFORM | | 现价 | Rmb17.95 | | 目标价 | Rmb25.05 | | HTI ESG | 4.0-5.0-5.0 | E-S-G: 0-5, (Please refer to the Appendix for ESG comments) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Yunnan Yuntianhua [3][6][11] Core Views - In the first half of 2024, the recurring net profit increased by 8.23% year-on-year, driven by higher production and sales volumes, lower raw material costs, effective expense control, and improved investment income from associated companies [2][8][11] - The company achieved total operating income of 31.993 billion yuan in 2024H1, a year-on-year decrease of 9.16%, with a net profit of 2.841 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.10% [8][11] - The gross sales margin for the first half of 2024 was 16.61%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points year-on-year, while the net sales margin was 10.71%, up by 1.25 percentage points [8][11] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 73.05 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.668 billion yuan, and an EPS of 2.54 yuan [4][7] - The company’s gross profit margin is expected to be 14.7% in 2024, with a return on equity (ROE) of 21.5% [4][7] - The target price is set at 27.94 yuan, based on a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11 times for 2024 [4][11] Business Segment Analysis - Ammonium phosphate segment: Production of 2.4846 million tonnes, sales of 2.3778 million tonnes, and operating income of 8.171 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 36.34% [4][9] - Composite fertilizer segment: Production of 974,300 tonnes, sales of 987,900 tonnes, and operating income of 2.948 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.45% [4][9] - Urea segment: Production of 1.3484 million tonnes, sales of 1.4246 million tonnes, and operating income of 3.100 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 26.60% [4][9] Strategic Positioning - The company leverages its own phosphorus resources to create a product matrix that includes phosphorus ore, chemical fertilizers, and fine phosphorus chemicals [10] - It has developed high value-added products such as inorganic fluorides and fluoropolymers, utilizing by-products from its phosphorus production [10]