智能控制器产业链催化不断,龙头优先受益 ● ● ● | --- | --- | |----------|-------| | | | | 通信行业 | | | 推荐 | | | 分析师 | | zhaoliangbi_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522030003 网: hongye_yj @chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130523060002 相关研究 www.chinastock.com.cn 行业点评 · 通信行业 投资建议:培育新质生产力背景下,新兴产业与传统产业的结合令新业态持续 涌现,硬件层面离不开智能控制器的支撑。我们认为智能控制器产业链上下游 催化不断,且长期受益于智能化、联网化、个性化发展趋势,行业增长动能强 劲,规模经济与范围经济升级下市场集中度有望抬升。建议关注:业绩高增在 手订单充裕+客户拓展顺利的家电智能控制器龙头和而泰、"四电一网"技术 储备雄厚+海外充分布局的智能控制器综合解决方案提供商拓邦股份、产品推 陈出新+估值处于低位的智能控制器"小而美"优质标的振邦智能等。 2 行业点评 · 通信行业 2024年12月 ...

Industry Overview - The steel sector index fell by 1.11% this week, with sub-sectors such as plates, pipes, and special steel declining by 0.15%, 2.38%, and 2.43% respectively [63][93] - Year-to-date, the plates sector has risen by 10.16%, while special steel and pipes sectors have fallen by 3.60% and 7.88% respectively [63][93] - Among steel sector stocks, 22.22% rose, 4.44% remained unchanged, and 73.33% declined this week [63][110] Key Events - The "Accelerating AI Empowerment in the Steel Industry" seminar was held, emphasizing the integration of AI with steel production to enhance efficiency and quality [53][84] - Henan Steel Group's Anyang base successfully produced high-end 9Ni and 7Ni steel, marking a significant step in the transformation and upgrading of the special steel industry [37][115] - Shandong Iron and Steel Group signed a cooperation agreement with Tai'an City to promote green and intelligent mining construction [114][55] Market Analysis - Domestic steel prices weakened this week, with rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, and large and medium-sized sections declining by 0.33%, 0.53%, 0.92%, and 1.22% respectively [91][88] - Iron ore import prices fell by 3.53% to $101.5/ton, while domestic iron ore prices dropped by 1.70% to 716.6 yuan/ton [45][88] - Steel inventories decreased significantly, with rebar, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil inventories down by 1.60%, 1.26%, and 0.50% respectively [88][117] Company Performance - Fangda Special Steel was awarded the 2024 "ESG Pioneer Award" for its sustainable development efforts and social responsibility initiatives [56][90] - Xiangtan Iron and Steel, in collaboration with Huawei, explored new paradigms for intelligent steel production, developing over 100 innovative application scenarios [89][95] - Key steel companies such as Baosteel, Angang, and Shougang announced upcoming shareholder meetings to discuss various operational and financial matters [130][150] Investment Recommendations - Policy support is expected to boost market confidence, with leading companies in the ordinary steel sector likely to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics [138][64] - The demand for mid-to-high-end special steel is anticipated to grow rapidly, driven by the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing sector [138][64]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry [11]. Core Viewpoints - The outlook for the raw milk cycle in 2025 suggests a potential balance between supply and demand, with prices expected to stabilize and recover from previous declines [6][50]. - The raw milk industry has experienced a prolonged downward price cycle since August 2021, with prices dropping approximately 30% from their peak [30]. - Supply-side factors include a reduction in cow inventory and improved milk yield, while demand is projected to grow modestly due to policy support and economic recovery [7][62]. Supply Summary - Supply is expected to decrease by 2.9% year-on-year in 2025, driven by a slight reduction in the number of breeding cows and a decline in imports [50]. - The domestic production of raw milk is characterized by a slow reduction in cow numbers and continuous improvement in yield, leading to a gradual supply contraction [36][38]. - Factors contributing to supply reduction include slowed ranch construction, collaboration between large farms and dairy companies, and rising raw material prices that may accelerate the exit of smaller farms [38][55]. Demand Summary - Demand is anticipated to grow by 2.3% year-on-year in 2025, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption and a gradual economic recovery [50][62]. - The demand for liquid milk is expected to increase by 2.0%, while dry dairy products may see a growth of 3.0% [50]. - The theoretical demand space for dairy products remains significant, with policies promoting consumption likely to enhance demand [7][62]. Market Tracking - The food and beverage sector experienced a slight decline of 0.4% from December 1 to December 25, 2024, ranking 12th among 31 sub-industries [7]. - In December 2024, the prices of core raw materials showed a mixed trend, with fresh milk prices at 3.11 yuan per kilogram, down 15.3% year-on-year [9][22]. - The report highlights that the packaging materials market has seen a release of cost benefits, with prices for PET bottles down 11.5% year-on-year [9][64]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with resilient consumer demand and clear long-term industry logic, such as snacks and beverages, with key companies including Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [9]. - It also recommends monitoring dairy products, particularly companies like Yili and New Dairy, which may benefit from marginal improvements and potential industry cycle reversals [9]. - Additionally, sectors with cyclical recovery potential and favorable competitive landscapes, such as B-end condiments and food supply chains, are highlighted for investment [9].

Group 1: Industrial Profit Trends - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 66,674.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% (previous value: -4.3%) [1] - In November, the profit decreased by 7.3% year-on-year (previous value: -10%) [1] - The operating revenue for the same period was 12.348 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.8% (previous value: 1.9%) [1] Group 2: Accounts Receivable and Cash Flow - As of the end of November, accounts receivable for industrial enterprises amounted to 26.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year (previous value: 7.8%) [2] - The average accounts receivable collection period increased to 66.7 days, up by 4.2 days year-on-year [2] - The prolonged collection period negatively impacts cash flow and increases uncertainty for enterprises [2] Group 3: Sector Performance - In November, the general equipment and railway transportation equipment sectors saw profit growth of 26.5% and 12.8%, respectively, with general equipment turning from negative to positive growth [2] - The profit growth rates for the optoelectronic device manufacturing and aerospace-related equipment manufacturing sectors were 41.1% and 14.3%, respectively [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector's profit growth slowed from 61.1% to 11.8% [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The current upward trend in production and revenue indicates a potential recovery in demand driven by policy support, but price competition remains a concern [4] - The improvement in profit data is lagging, as it takes time for policies to translate into demand and economic expectations [4] - The focus on expanding domestic demand in upcoming policy meetings is crucial for reversing negative profit trends and fostering a positive cycle of sales and inventory management [4]

ˋˋ 䌑駉砯勨鉿╃䌑䍳瞬汻䫟⼴ 䌑 劓 傽 駉砯勨鉿╃ 䲀蠩 缰䭦駬绣 l 駉砯勨升㑊㜩漽⪢䌑鉿╃㎈뀎 䌑 ⮵ 蔸 ♁ 駉 砯 勨 䭰 俚 鳷 鰯 屽 广 ⼯ ⻓ 둛䒧䙎溸杅掾㎈뀎鉿╃俠✅╃缥鉿 ╃ ⯼ ┩ 㳌 䍳 觝 侅 㙨 ꅌ ⻎ 嬠 侊 ㄌ 䓛 嬏 ⬥ ⯈巷⻎嬠㝕䋀㙨ꪍ ⛰鉿╃⯼┩㳌䍳嬱⯈椚⻎嬠┬怑ն 劓潜侓瞬ꓨ牴⮃⺬ 升㑊ꁹ匡㝕䋀䒧䒧䋀䍳㝕◟屽广 㐃 劓╚僆⮃⻓둛掾䌔缰䭦괭 衄ն⮕ 㲳 升 㑊 匡 澚 䌑 ⮵ 蔸 ♁ ꓭ 鄌 IT 銩 ⻓ ┞ 돇 缙 㸾 巹 䋀 ꁒ ⯒ .%⪼ 姍儱⼏駉砯.%յⶖ泈 IT.%յ㎼ꮑ IT.%ն l 2025 䌑升㑊劔労ꁹ匡⮕㲳+⮕嬏盛䨪缰偅⮄ꂛ┞婢䲀ⶬ⛓⡽╚ 厀ն⛘ 갫耘臅⥈䐷⼅ꮴ䛉⽟劻┞䴗㲳侓瞬⮃⺬㎼⫐鯴䉕䭦缩㶄卄 䝠⬔┬鯯侓侓瞬䭦 缩Ⲏ焺12 劓╚㝠缋嵴䈰✑⚷駖僻燛䳀⮃◗♨璇䪫⮱ 假 䑜 뀖 假 鯵 气 分 ⲇ 㺥 䐮 駦 ⻓ ♣ 分 ╃ ✅ 笡溸潨吙ն䧰♰駌╬駉砯勨鉿 ╃㝕ꌄ⮕⚕╃ G 盛侅⪝ⷑ嬠鿲둛续姍儱ꂀ䌑匡佻䭦⡺ⲇ䍳劅㝕溸䲃类 㐌 ⽶ 侓 䍠 ⡺ ⲏ 낊 ꯟ 罏 闌 劔 ⲙ ◟ ╬ 俚 㲼 㕈 䐮 瞏 㕈 熝 駦 类 䳀 危 ⩪ 鎒 鰑 ꓭ 佻 䭦 劔 労 ...

Group 1 - The global ESG policy landscape is steadily advancing in 2024, with international cooperation and regional differentiation coexisting. The ISSB has released guidelines for sustainable risk and opportunity disclosures, enhancing corporate sustainability reporting standards [6][17][19] - The EU continues to lead in global ESG governance, with the implementation of the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) and the European Sustainability Reporting Standards (ESRS), imposing stricter ESG disclosure requirements on companies [20][19][19] - In the US, ESG development faces significant challenges due to political divisions, with new climate disclosure regulations encountering obstacles at both federal and state levels [8][10][17] Group 2 - China's ESG policy framework has made significant progress, with a multi-level deployment structure involving central and local governments, financial regulatory bodies, and various ministries. The focus is on implementing the dual carbon strategy and promoting green financial services [6][17][49] - The 2024 ESG policy documents emphasize the importance of low-carbon transformation in the real economy and the establishment of a green financial service system, with specific targets set for 2030 and 2035 [49][49][49] - The number of ESG public funds in China has surpassed one trillion yuan for the first time, indicating a growing domestic focus on ESG investments [10][17][10] Group 3 - The global ESG market is projected to exceed $40 trillion by 2030, highlighting the long-term potential for ESG investments despite short-term political challenges in the US [10][10][10] - The carbon market has become a crucial tool for addressing climate change, with mechanisms in China, the EU, the US, and the UK maturing and demonstrating compatibility with policies and financial innovations [10][10][10] - The establishment of a comprehensive ESG information disclosure system in China is underway, with regulatory bodies enhancing the quality and comparability of corporate ESG reports [10][10][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the home appliance industry, indicating that the expected performance is within a range of -5% to 10% relative to the benchmark index [15]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry is experiencing a recovery in profitability due to stabilizing domestic and international demand, with significant improvements in sales driven by government policies and market dynamics [37][49]. - The export of home appliances has shown strong growth, with a cumulative export of 4.099 billion units from January to November 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.3% [20][22]. - The "old-for-new" policy has significantly stimulated market demand, leading to a notable increase in retail sales, which reached 120 billion yuan in November 2024, up 22.2% year-on-year [31][75]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Demand - The real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization, with a 10.77% year-on-year increase in transaction volumes in November 2024 across 30 major cities, marking the first positive growth this year [20][44]. - The "old-for-new" policy and promotional activities have led to a significant improvement in domestic sales, with retail sales of home appliances consistently growing over 20% for three consecutive months [31][75]. 2. Export Dynamics - Home appliance exports have maintained a strong upward trend, with a cumulative export value of 91.72 billion USD from January to November 2024, reflecting a 14.1% year-on-year increase [20][22]. - The export growth is supported by recovering global demand and proactive inventory building by overseas merchants [20][22]. 3. Profitability and Valuation - The industry is currently valued below historical averages, indicating potential long-term investment value [27][93]. - The report highlights that the annualized ROE for the industry is projected at 16.62%, remaining stable compared to 2023, driven by the "old-for-new" policy and improved export shares [86]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: 1. White goods leaders benefiting from domestic and international sales improvements, recommending Midea Group and Haier Smart Home [32]. 2. Kitchen appliance leaders expected to benefit from market optimization and real estate recovery, recommending Robam Appliances [32]. 3. Cleaning appliance companies actively expanding channels and launching new products, recommending Roborock Technology [32].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the oil and chemical industry, recommending a focus on growth-oriented stocks such as Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Guoen Co., Ltd. [2] Core Insights - The report anticipates that Brent crude oil prices will stabilize in the range of $70-80 per barrel, with industry profitability primarily dependent on supply and demand improvements rather than cost factors [2] - The oil and chemical industry is a crucial pillar of the national economy, with 531 listed companies accounting for 9.9% of all A-shares [6][30] - The industry is experiencing structural opportunities despite facing overcapacity pressures, with ongoing construction projects and potential improvements in terminal consumption due to policy stimuli [2][5] Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Overview - The oil and chemical industry is vital to the national economy, with a total market capitalization of 8.64 trillion yuan, representing 8.6% of all A-shares [30] - The average market capitalization of companies in this sector is 398 million yuan, influenced by major players like Sinopec [9] Section 2: Economic Performance - China's economy is running steadily, with energy consumption expected to grow gradually [33] - Oil prices significantly impact industry profitability, with expectations for stable price levels in the near term [49] Section 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report highlights that China's apparent natural gas consumption grew by 9.4% year-on-year, with imports also increasing [24] - The oil supply-demand situation remains tight, with external dependence on oil reaching 73.1% [35] Section 4: Financial Analysis - The report notes that the oil and chemical industry is entering a mature phase, with increasing competition and structural overcapacity [76] - The industry is expected to face challenges in profitability due to weak pricing power and rising costs [37] Section 5: Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on growth-oriented companies within the sector, suggesting a strategic allocation towards firms with strong growth attributes [2][76] - The investment strategy emphasizes the importance of monitoring OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical developments [56]

Group 1: A-Share Market Strategy for 2025 - The report emphasizes structural investment opportunities in the A-share market, focusing on sectors with stronger certainty in the medium to long term, particularly in technology innovation driven by AI and self-controllable logic [1][29] - The consumer sector is highlighted as a key investment area, driven by policies promoting service consumption and the implementation of "two new" policies [1][29] - The report expresses optimism about state-owned enterprises (SOEs) due to ongoing reforms, emphasizing their stable profitability, low valuations, and high dividend yields [1][29] Group 2: Agricultural Investment Strategy for 2025 - Investment opportunities in agriculture are centered around the livestock industry, with specific focus on pig farming, chicken farming, pet food, and animal health products [2][19] - The report notes that refined management in pig farming can enhance profit elasticity, while chicken farming is expected to benefit from demand recovery [2][19] - The pet food sector is identified as a high-growth area, with domestic brands gaining market share and benefiting from e-commerce growth [2][35] Group 3: Public Utilities and Environmental Protection Strategy for 2025 - The report discusses the supply-demand pricing logic in the electricity market, predicting profitability for thermal power companies in regions with high demand and coal price adjustments [3][61] - It highlights the potential for mergers and acquisitions in the public utility sector, particularly among state-owned enterprises, to enhance asset quality and operational efficiency [3][45] - The report suggests focusing on hydropower and nuclear power sectors, which are expected to provide strong dividend yields [3][45] Group 4: Light Industry Strategy for 2025 - The light industry is projected to recover from the bottom, with expectations of policy support boosting demand in home furnishings, paper, and packaging sectors [2][25] - The report indicates that leading companies in the light industry are expanding their export capabilities and benefiting from cost advantages due to overseas production [2][26] - It emphasizes the resilience of leading companies in the packaging sector, which are expected to gain market share amid a recovering demand environment [2][25] Group 5: Building Materials Strategy for 2025 - The report anticipates a recovery in building materials demand driven by ongoing real estate policy support and infrastructure investment [39][55] - It highlights the importance of supply-side adjustments, with expectations of price increases in cement and glass fiber sectors due to improved supply-demand dynamics [39][55] - Recommendations include focusing on leading companies in the building materials sector that are well-positioned to benefit from these trends [39][55]

增值税立法简评 ● 二是"视同销售"范围缩窄,或将降低跨地区经营企业的税务成本。《增值税 法》中视同销售仅保留了四项,现行制度中的"代销"、"移送"等视同销售 项均被移除。我们认为这将部分降低企业的税款资金占用成本,尤其是对于电 商和零售类企业而言具有一定利好因素。所谓"视同销售"，是指某些行为虽 然形式上不是销售,但根据现行规定,需要按照销售行为计算和缴纳相关税 费。例如过去大部分电商企业在代销产品时,虽然没有实际购买商品,但因为 "视同销售",在商品完成实际销售前,电商企业便需要提前向商品生产所在 地税务机构缴纳增值税,并形成待抵扣的进项税额,待商品实际销售后再进行 抵扣。过去这种操作一则使得企业税务处理较为复杂;二则代销行为本身可能 并未产生实际销售收入,而对企业造成税款资金占用,增加企业税务成本;三 则在留抵退税时或许还会涉及区域间的税收转移问题,因为销售前的税收是 在商品生产地缴纳,而退税义务一般由商品销售企业所在地负责。 ● 四是企业贷款和服务业或将允许进行增值税抵扣。《增值税法》第二十二条中 在不得进行进项抵扣的情形中并未包含"贷款服务",这或意味着如果没有其 他补充条款,企业贷款和融资利息的增 ...