每日晨报 银河观点集萃 阳光保险(6963.HK):经营业绩稳中有进,价值工程显现成效 -- 阳光保 险首次覆盖报告。阳光保险:快速成长的综合性民营保险公司 阳光保险成立 于 2007年,是中国第十家登录资本市场的内地保险公司。公司股权分散且呈 现多元化,近年来实现快速成长,保费年化增速超过行业平均,人身险和财产 险均衡发展。公司积极服务国家战略,紧跟行业改革方向,在科技金融、绿色 金融、普惠金融、养老金融、数字金融等领域有着较好的业务布局。公司近期 加入港股通,流通性充裕背景下公司估值有望实现持续修复,首次覆盖给予"推 荐"评级。 交通:顺周期景气复苏,看好内需相关板块 -- 交通运输行业 2025年度策略 报告。2025年展望—机场:国际线及客单价修复为未来主要看点。当前机场板 块对于免税协议重签扣点率下降的悲观情绪基本已被 priced in。未来国际线 客流恢复仍将为机场板块主要看点。同时,一揽子政策驱动下,宏观经济及内 需消费进一步复苏,也为2025年商业板块客单价提升提供了动力。枢纽机场 免税协议修订情况及有税商铺招租进展还需再关注,虽未来免税扣点率大概率 难以回归疫情前高位水平,但确定性预期下, ...

12 河证券|CGS 图25：2021 年生猪医疗防疫费创新高 一規模生猪头均医疗防疫费（元） ■ 两者医疗费差额(元) 散养生猶头均医疗防疫费（元） 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2010 STOZ STOZ LTD7 STOF 2004 2005 2007 2009 I TOZ 2008 stor 2006 2018 2019 -5 资料来源：全国农产品成本收益资料汇编,中国银河证券研究院 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 河证券|CGS | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------------------|----------------|-------|---------------------|------------------------------------------|-------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2700 2500 | | 一总批签发数 ...

算力即国力,算力服务重要性进一步加强 ● ● ● ● ● 建议关注:算力服务商光环新网、润泽科技、奥飞数据,液冷板块英维克、佳 力图、依米康,光通信板块中际旭创、新易盛、天孚通信、德科立、太辰光, 铜互连兆龙互连、博创科技、金信诺等。 风险提示: AI 发展不及预期的风险;全球政治经济形势变动的风险等。 盤: 010-8092-7619 相对沪深 300 表现图 50% 2024-12-30 相关研究 2. 【银河通信】运营商行业 2024 年中报专题：运营 商利润增速稳健，数智化转型全球领先 4. 【银河通信】中期策略报告:AI 为基算力为石, 科技变革浩瀚星辰 www.chinastock.com.cn 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 评级标准 分析师承诺及简介 免费声明 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-------------| | 联系 | | | 中国银河证券股份有限公司 研究院 | 机构请致电: | | 深圳市福田区金田路 3088 号中洲大厦 20 层 | 深广地区: | | 上海浦东 ...

Investment Rating - Maintained as "Recommend" [10][18] Core Views - CR450 EMU prototype released, marking a significant breakthrough in high-speed rail technology [15][24] - Railway industry remains prosperous, with high demand for new EMUs and maintenance expected [16] - Railway locomotive renewal elasticity is expected to gradually release, driven by large-scale equipment updates [25] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 234.26 billion in 2023 to RMB 286.47 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 5.08% to 3.19% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from RMB 11.71 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.12 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 0.50% to 0.07% [5] - Gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 22.27% to 22.62% from 2023 to 2026 [5] - EPS is projected to grow from RMB 0.41 in 2023 to RMB 0.53 in 2026 [5] Industry Analysis - The railway industry is expected to see continued investment, with fixed asset investment exceeding RMB 800 billion in 2024 [16] - High-speed rail mileage is expected to reach 70,000 km by 2035, with an additional 25,000 km to be added from 2024 to 2035 [16] - The demand for EMUs is expected to remain above 200 sets annually, driven by both new construction and maintenance needs [16] Company Performance - The company's product portfolio has been continuously upgraded, with the CR450 EMU prototype being the latest addition [24] - The company is expected to benefit from the replacement of old diesel locomotives with new energy locomotives, with an estimated demand for 2,000 new energy locomotives over the next three years [25] - The company's profitability in the railway equipment business is expected to further improve with the gradual commercial operation of higher-speed CR450 EMUs [24]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [13][30]. Core Insights - Sunshine Insurance is undergoing a structural adjustment in its non-auto insurance premium composition, leading to an improvement in the combined cost ratio (COR) over the years. The company is shifting its focus from guaranteed insurance to health, liability, and cargo insurance [12]. - The investment strategy has seen an increase in the proportion of bond investments, which is expected to enhance the overall investment yield. The net investment yield has stabilized due to a higher allocation in fixed-income and high-dividend assets [12]. - The company is projected to maintain stable growth, with revenue estimates of 90.995 billion, 89.219 billion, and 98.858 billion yuan for 2024-2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.33%, -1.95%, and 10.8% respectively [13]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Sunshine Insurance, established in 2007, is a diversified private insurance group with a mission to provide comprehensive risk protection and financial services throughout the customer lifecycle. It operates through Sunshine Life for life and health insurance and Sunshine Property for property insurance [21][36]. Business Overview - The company has achieved a premium growth rate that exceeds the industry average, with balanced development in both life and property insurance sectors. It actively aligns with national strategies and has a strong presence in various financial sectors, including technology and green finance [28][36]. Financial Performance - The financial projections for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E show total revenues of 78.224 billion, 90.995 billion, 89.219 billion, and 98.858 billion yuan, with net profits of 3.738 billion, 6.636 billion, 6.107 billion, and 7.177 billion yuan respectively [29]. Investment Strategy - The company has increased its bond allocation significantly, which is a strategic response to the reduction of high-quality non-standard assets available for investment. This shift is expected to improve the overall investment returns [12][41]. Distribution Channels - Sunshine Life has adopted a diversified channel strategy, with a significant contribution from the bancassurance channel, which has maintained a strong share of new business value (NBV) despite industry challenges [44][49]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a focus on enhancing the quality of its business and reducing costs associated with liabilities. The ongoing adjustments in its premium structure and investment strategy are anticipated to yield positive results in the coming years [12][13].

Group 1: Real Estate Industry - The real estate industry is expected to enter a new cycle, with a focus on land acquisition and urban renewal as key variables impacting sales and investment [1] - In 2024, the total sales area is projected to be 9.69 billion square meters, a decrease of 13.32% compared to 2023, while the sales amount is expected to drop by 18% to 9.56 trillion yuan [1] - By the end of October 2024, the nationwide unsold housing inventory is estimated at 730 million square meters, with a potential land acquisition scale of 240 million square meters [1] Group 2: Commercial Real Estate - The retail property sector is experiencing a decline in average first-floor rents, while vacancy rates are slowly decreasing, indicating a trend of "trading price for volume" [2] - The second-hand housing market is showing stronger performance compared to new homes, benefiting from tax reduction policies aimed at lowering transaction costs [2] - The property management industry is expected to grow to a scale of 31.5 billion yuan by 2025, with companies expanding through project acquisition and mergers [2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report highlights several companies as potential investment opportunities, including Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Longfor Group, among others [3] - It suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with strong asset bases and recommends attention to top real estate service providers and quality commercial management firms [3] Group 4: Market Trends and Strategies - The report indicates that the market is likely to see a recovery in 2025, driven by supportive policies and a focus on enhancing company quality and governance [7][8] - It emphasizes the importance of mergers and acquisitions in enhancing supply chain security and promoting technological innovation within the industry [8] - The report also discusses the need for improved information disclosure and ESG management to enhance investor relations and protect shareholder rights [8][9] Group 5: Dairy Industry Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to achieve a tight balance between supply and demand by 2025, with prices stabilizing after a prolonged decline [26] - Supply-side factors include a slight reduction in the number of breeding cows and a decrease in imports, while demand is projected to grow modestly [27] - The report suggests that consumer policies aimed at boosting demand will likely support a recovery in prices and consumption in the dairy sector [27] Group 6: Computer Industry - The AI agent sector is anticipated to thrive, driven by advancements in AI capabilities and increased demand for reasoning power [11][72] - The report recommends focusing on companies like iFlytek and Kingsoft Office, which are well-positioned to benefit from the growth in the AI and digital infrastructure markets [11][72] - The overall industry is expected to see valuation increases as demand improves and monetary policy remains accommodative [11][72] Group 7: Telecommunications Industry - The telecommunications sector is experiencing steady growth, with significant increases in both revenue and new infrastructure development, particularly in 5G [76] - The report highlights the importance of emerging business areas such as cloud computing and IoT, which are contributing to revenue growth [76] - Future developments in AI and 6G technology are expected to further enhance the sector's growth potential [76] Group 8: Fixed Income Market - The fixed income market is projected to experience a moderate recovery, with low interest rates likely to persist [78] - The report suggests that the combination of loose monetary policy and fiscal expansion will create opportunities for bond trading [78] - It emphasizes the importance of balancing risk and return in the current low-yield environment [78]

核心观点 ● 本周公告:本周北交所企业的重要公告覆盖业务进展、对外投资、项目延期、 垂大资产重组、实控人变更等方向。众诚科技、美邦科技、志晟信息、国航远 洋公告了新的业务进展;科润智控、中设咨询公布了对外投资;沪江材料、新 威凌、丰安股份、三祥科技公告了项目延期;润农节水公告了实控人变更;旭 杰科技公告了重大资产重组等。 北交所周报 北证 50 指数周涨跌幅为-5.38%。本周,北证 50 涨跌幅为-5.38%。北交 所 262 家上市公司中,有 29家公司周涨幅为正,新股方正阀门(+357.83%) 涨幅领先,其次是威博液压(+25.27%)、雷神科技(+21.99%)等,跌幅最 大的是太湖雪(-21.68%)。从行业来看,本周北交所多数行业下跌,仅国防 军工(+1.5%)、机械设备(+0.1%) 行业涨幅周涨幅为正,而纺织服饰(- 18.3%)、环保(-14.8%)和建筑材料行业(-13.8%) 跌幅较大。 ● 投资策略:北交所交投活跃度保持在较高水平,市场关注度保持高位。叠加 北交所新股发行稳步推进,我们认为北交所板块具备投资价值。对于 2025年 投资策略,我们推荐三个主要方向:1)聚焦北交所新质生产 ...

Group 1: Market Management Policies - The market value management policy emphasizes ten key points for focus[2] - The policy encourages diversified holding companies to highlight specialized development characteristics and explore spin-off listings[3] - Central enterprises are urged to enhance strategic restructuring and professional integration to focus on core business areas[3] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - Historical mergers in the U.S. show that innovation drives acquisition waves, with China currently experiencing a similar trend[4] - The policy aims to guide listed companies to focus on key links in the industrial chain and enhance supply chain resilience[54] - Mergers and acquisitions should prioritize technological innovation and strategic emerging industries[73] Group 3: Corporate Governance and Investor Relations - The policy stresses the importance of improving corporate governance and protecting shareholder rights[54] - It encourages listed companies to enhance investor relations management and actively seek investor feedback on profit distribution plans[56] - The focus is on increasing cash dividend ratios to ensure stability and predictability in returns for investors[56] Group 4: Compliance and Risk Management - The policy mandates strict compliance with regulations to prevent market manipulation and insider trading[20] - There is a strong emphasis on establishing a sound market value management system and maintaining legal compliance[47] - Risks include potential economic recovery falling short of expectations and misinterpretation of policies[100]

图 23: 图 25: 图 27: 年度（2024.1.1-2024年12 月底）北斗导航、智能控制器和光模块等等相关子板块表现较好 . 表 4： 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 证券|CGS 免费声明 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------|-------------| | 联系 | | | 中国银河证券股份有限公司 研究院 | 机构请致电: | | 深圳市福田区金田路 3088 号中洲大厦 20 层 | 深广地区: | | 上海浦东新区富城路 99 号震旦大厦 31 层 | 上海地区: | | 北京市丰台区西营街8号院1号楼青海金融大厦 | 北京地区: | | 公司网址:www.chinastock.com.cn | | 23 24.69% 25.51% 688080.SH -28.62% 603660.SH 600050.SH 301205.SZ 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明。 表3:5G 规模化应用部署持续推进 中国联通改革 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Fosun International [2][21]. Core Views - Fosun International focuses on optimizing its core business and asset structure, which has led to improved valuation potential. The company has achieved steady revenue growth driven by its four main business segments: Health, Happiness, Wealth, and Intelligent Manufacturing [1][4][21]. - The company plans to reduce its interest-bearing debt to 60 billion RMB and gradually increase its dividend payout ratio, reflecting a commitment to shareholder value [4][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Fosun International has developed into a global family consumption industry group over 30 years, with a diversified presence across more than 35 countries [8][29]. - The company operates in four main segments: Health, Happiness, Wealth, and Intelligent Manufacturing, with a strong emphasis on innovation [8][34]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, Fosun International reported revenue of 97.838 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and an operating profit of 3.47 billion RMB, up 3.0% [1][21]. - The overseas revenue reached 45.87 billion RMB, accounting for 47% of total revenue, reflecting a 2 percentage point increase year-on-year [1]. Business Segments - **Health Segment**: Fosun Pharma is the core of the health segment, contributing significantly to revenue. The pharmaceutical business focuses on innovative drugs, with a notable increase in revenue from this area [15][40]. - **Happiness Segment**: This segment includes consumer brands and tourism, with stable performance driven by brands like Yuyuan and Club Med [19][42]. - **Wealth Segment**: The insurance business provides a stable funding source, with a successful turnaround in profitability [51][66]. - **Intelligent Manufacturing Segment**: This segment has shown significant growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 37.4% since its establishment [34][73]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The report forecasts net profits of 1.8 billion RMB, 2.8 billion RMB, and 3.6 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 21X, 14X, and 11X [21][22]. - The current market valuation is considered reasonable, with potential for further growth as the company strengthens its global and innovative strategies [21].