宏观动态报告 出口仍有韧性,进口持续回落 -11 月进出口数据解读 ● ● 12月10日海关总署公布11月份进出口数据:11月份我国出口商品 3123 亿 美元,同比增速为 6.7%(前值 12.7%),两年复合增速 3.7%(前值 2.6%)。 进口 2149 亿美元,增速-3.9%(前值-2.3%）。贸易顺差 974.4 亿美元(前值 957.2 亿美元）。 11 月份出口增速维持较高增长,受益于抢出口效应以及外需边际回暖等 因素支撑,但也受到高基数效应拖累:一是贸易商预期关税效用引发提前进 货潮。一方面受特朗普关税政策的影响,部分货主选择提前进货以规避潜在的 关税风险;另一方面,明年1月15日是美东码头劳资谈判截止日期,目前来 看二次罢工的风险在上升。11月份 CCFI 美东航线环比上涨5.3%,一定程度 反映了货商抢出口以及对美东码头二次罢工的风险担忧;二是外需景气度边 际回暖。11月全球 PMI 指数小幅回升至 50%(前值 49.4%),其中美韩、印 俄墨等经济体 PMI 均有不同程度的改善。外需景气度边际回暖,一定程度上 也带动我国 11月 PMI 出口新订单指数回升至 48.1%,高于五年季节 ...

Strategy Performance - The low-price enhancement strategy, low-price large-cap enhancement strategy, and improved dual-low strategy achieved returns of 2.3%, 1.7%, and 3.2% respectively during the last period (11.26-12.9), compared to a benchmark of 2.7%[2] - Year-to-date, these strategies have recorded returns of 8.5%, 8.6%, and 15.1%, outperforming the benchmark of 6.6% by 2-9%[2] - The improved dual-low strategy has shown a significant advantage with a return of 15.1% year-to-date, compared to the benchmark's 6.6%[3] Market Trends - The equity market rebounded with the Wind All A index rising by 4.05% and the China Securities convertible bond index increasing by 2.68% during the last period[2] - The dual-low style outperformed with a return of 3.25%, while the low-price enhancement and low-price large-cap strategies slightly underperformed the benchmark[2] Portfolio Adjustments - Recent adjustments in the low-price enhancement strategy included adding Huaitong Convertible Bond and Yongdong Convertible Bond, while removing inactive stocks like Xingrui Convertible Bond and high-priced bonds[3] - The low-price large-cap enhancement strategy saw new additions of Keli Convertible Bond, Zhongyin Convertible Bond, and Jiemai Convertible Bond, while removing less favorable options[3] Risk Considerations - The report highlights risks including historical data not replicating, potential over-adjustment in the convertible bond market, and the performance of underlying stocks not meeting expectations[4]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Maintain Recommendation" [5] Core Insights - The steel price has shown a slight rebound, with domestic steel market prices increasing and iron ore import prices also rising. The average price of rebar is 3,475.4 CNY/ton, up 1.15% from last week [2][53] - A significant reduction in steel inventory has been observed, with rebar social inventory down 15.62% year-on-year [2][82] - The steel and real estate industries have announced a cooperation statement to promote low-carbon steel applications, indicating a shift towards low-carbon steel in the market [3][41] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector index increased by 5.61% this week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.33% [2][32] - All three sub-sectors of steel (plate, pipe, and special steel) experienced gains, with plate up 7.28%, pipe up 5.04%, and special steel up 3.18% [2][34] Price Analysis - Domestic steel prices have slightly increased, with rebar averaging 3,475.4 CNY/ton, line pipe at 3,735.0 CNY/ton, and hot-rolled plate at 3,630.2 CNY/ton [2][53] - Iron ore import prices also saw a rise, with the Platts iron ore price index averaging 105.6 USD/ton, up 1.61% from last week [2][69] Supply and Inventory Trends - The average operating rate of blast furnaces is at 81.45%, showing a slight decrease [2][75] - Significant destocking in the steel market was noted, with various steel products showing year-on-year inventory reductions [2][82] Profitability Analysis - The profitability of various steel products has improved, with rebar margins increasing by 53 CNY/ton to approximately -18 CNY/ton [2][95] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the ordinary steel sector that are expected to benefit from favorable policy expectations and improving fundamentals in the special steel sector [3][120]

Industry Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry maintains a "Recommended" rating [5] Core Views - The report focuses on the competitive landscape of the packaged water industry, drawing insights from Japan's market experience [2] - Long-term growth potential for China's packaged water industry is driven by factors such as smaller household sizes, increased outdoor activities, and heightened consumer awareness of water safety [3] - Short-term competition in the packaged water sector is expected to ease, with mainstream product prices continuing to rise in Q4 2024 [3] Japan's Packaged Water Market Analysis Market Size and Growth Drivers - Japan's packaged water market grew at a CAGR of 9.2% from 1993 to 2023, driven by health awareness, water safety concerns, and policy changes allowing RTD beverage packaging [2] - The market size reached 421.2 billion yen in 2023, with a CAGR of 8.6% over 30 years, significantly outpacing Japan's GDP growth [16] - Packaged water's share of the soft drink market increased from 1.3% in 1993 to 9.5% in 2023, making it the third-largest category after coffee and tea beverages [16] Price Trends - The average price of packaged water in Japan declined slightly, with a CAGR of -0.5% from 1993 to 2023, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and industry-specific factors [30] - Price fluctuations were observed in three periods: 1993-1997, 2005-2010, and 2018, with the latter seeing a 10.9% year-on-year decline [50] Competitive Landscape - Market concentration increased, with top players like Suntory and Coca-Cola benefiting from scale and distribution advantages [41] - Suntory maintained its market leadership by focusing on its main brand, Tennensui, while other players like Kirin and Asahi experienced market share declines due to brand transitions [44] - The industry experienced two major price wars (2005-2010 and 2018), with leading companies showing stronger resilience [50] Domestic Implications for China - China's packaged water industry has significant long-term growth potential, with leading brands expected to maintain their market positions despite short-term competitive pressures [59] - Short-term competition is easing, with mainstream product prices rebounding in Q4 2024, and further improvements expected after the 2025 Spring Festival [59] Cost Trends - Packaging material costs declined in November 2024, with PET, cardboard, glass, and film prices down by 10.4%, 5.3%, 30.1%, and 3.2% year-on-year, respectively [3] - Raw material costs for mass-market products also decreased, with sugar, flour, quail eggs, and soybean prices down by 12.5%, 2.9%, 5.2%, and 19.3%, respectively [3] - However, palm oil and pork prices increased by 40.6% and 15.2% year-on-year [3] Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 2.4% in November 2024, ranking 8th among 31 sub-sectors [4] - Non-alcoholic beverage sub-sectors, including baked goods, snacks, and pre-processed foods, saw the highest monthly gains at 8.1%, 6.3%, and 3.3%, respectively [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with strong cyclical recovery potential, favorable valuations, and competitive advantages, such as B-end condiments and catering supply chains, with key companies including Haitian Flavoring, Anjoy Foods, and Baoli Foods [95] - C-end sectors with resilient performance and clear long-term industry logic, such as snacks and beverages, are also recommended, with key companies including Dongpeng Beverage, Three Squirrels, and Huaren Beverage [95] - Sectors showing marginal improvement in Q3 earnings and potential for long-term industry cycle reversal, such as dairy, are also worth attention, with key companies including Yili and New Hope Dairy [95]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Maintain Recommendation" [5] Core Insights - The steel price has shown a slight rebound, with domestic steel market prices increasing and iron ore import prices also rising. The average price of rebar is 3,475.4 CNY/ton, up 1.15% from last week [2][53] - A significant reduction in steel inventory has been observed, with rebar social inventory down 15.62% year-on-year [2][82] - The steel and real estate industries have announced a cooperation statement to promote low-carbon steel applications, indicating a shift towards low-carbon steel in the market [3][41] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector index increased by 5.61% this week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 2.33% [2][32] - All three sub-sectors of steel (plate, pipe, and special steel) experienced gains, with plate up 7.28%, pipe up 5.04%, and special steel up 3.18% [2][34] Price Analysis - Domestic steel prices have slightly increased, with rebar averaging 3,475.4 CNY/ton, line pipe at 3,735.0 CNY/ton, and hot-rolled plate at 3,630.2 CNY/ton [2][53] - Iron ore import prices also saw a rise, with the Platts iron ore price index averaging 105.6 USD/ton, up 1.61% from last week [2][69] Supply and Inventory Trends - The average operating rate of blast furnaces is 81.45%, showing a slight decrease [2][75] - Significant destocking in the steel market was noted, with various steel products showing year-on-year inventory reductions [2][82] Profitability Analysis - The profitability of various steel products has improved, with rebar margins increasing by 53 CNY/ton to approximately -18 CNY/ton [2][95] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the ordinary steel sector that may benefit from favorable policies and improving fundamentals in the special steel sector [3][120]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for bank stock performance relative to the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be upgraded, supporting bank credit growth. Although bank interest margins (NIM) will face pressure, the optimization of funding costs is anticipated to provide support [5]. - The meeting on December 9 highlighted the implementation of more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, which are expected to improve the banking operating environment [3][4]. - The potential increase in local government special bond quotas is projected to be around 4.5 trillion yuan, with an estimated 1.26 trillion yuan in incremental credit being leveraged [3]. - The monetary policy is shifting towards a more accommodative stance, with expectations of interest rate cuts in 2025, which may impact bank interest margins negatively but will be countered by measures such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and adjustments in deposit rates [4]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Policy - The central government plans to enhance fiscal and monetary policies, focusing on boosting consumption and investment efficiency to expand domestic demand [3]. - The anticipated issuance of long-term special bonds aims to support new infrastructure and consumption initiatives [3]. Banking Sector Outlook - The banking sector is expected to benefit from improved asset quality and risk expectations due to the government's focus on preventing systemic risks and stabilizing the real estate market [4]. - The report notes that the sales decline of major real estate companies has narrowed, indicating potential stabilization in the sector [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific banks for investment, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Changshu Bank (601128) [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector [4][6]. Core Views - The banking sector outperformed the market, with a 2.35% increase compared to a 1.44% rise in the CSI 300 index during the week [2][25]. - The new M1 statistical criteria, effective from January 2025, will enhance the adaptability of monetary supply to economic development, reflecting consumer activity more accurately [3][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monetary policy in stabilizing growth and supporting high-quality development amid ongoing economic challenges [4][22]. Summary by Sections Latest Research Insights - The M1 statistical criteria will include personal demand deposits and non-bank payment institution reserves, improving the reflection of social purchasing power [3][17]. - The adjustment in M1 is expected to lead to a more stable growth trend, with a projected M1 scale of 105.06 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year change of -2.33% [3][18]. Weekly Market Performance - The banking sector saw a 2.35% increase, with notable performances from major banks such as CITIC Bank (+6.92%) and Chongqing Bank (+5.64%) [2][25]. - The banking sector's price-to-book (PB) ratio stands at 0.66, with a dividend yield of 4.97%, indicating strong income potential [2][39]. Valuation of the Sector and Listed Companies - The banking sector's PB ratio is significantly lower than the overall A-share market, indicating a discount of 39.72% [39]. - The report lists individual banks with their respective performance metrics, highlighting the profitability and valuation trends [46][55]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the optimization of monetary supply statistics will better align with the real economy, benefiting short-term credit issuance [4][54]. - Recommended stocks include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Changshu Bank (601128) [4][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the communication industry, indicating an expected performance exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation as a key driver for economic growth, aiming to establish a modern industrial system and achieve high-quality completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][4]. - The communication sector is experiencing steady growth, with significant advancements in new infrastructure, particularly in 5G network construction, which has seen a total of 4.141 million 5G base stations as of October 2024, marking a net increase of 764,000 from the previous year [4]. - The report emphasizes the development of 5G applications, including smart robots and connected vehicles, which are expected to enhance the telecommunications revenue growth, with IoT business revenue increasing by 13.2% year-on-year [4][5]. - The future outlook suggests that by the end of 2027, the number of 5G base stations per 10,000 people will reach 38, with a personal user penetration rate exceeding 85% and IoT terminal connections surpassing 100 million [5]. Summary by Sections New Infrastructure Development - The report notes that as of October 2024, mobile internet users reached 1.574 billion, with cumulative mobile internet traffic hitting 2,766 billion GB, reflecting a 12.3% increase [4]. Emerging Business Development - Telecommunications operators are making significant strides in emerging fields such as quantum technology and satellite services, which are expected to optimize the industrial chain and enhance the technological ecosystem [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the 5G+ industry chain's scalable development, recommending high-quality targets in sectors such as telecommunications operators (China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom), optical communication leaders (ZTE, NewEase, Tianfu Communication), and quantum communication leaders (Guangdong Quantum) [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for leading companies in the building materials sector, including North New Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, and Huaxin Cement, among others [4][11]. Core Insights - The building materials industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in demand, with the construction materials industrial prosperity index stabilizing at 102.4 points in November, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.1 points and a year-on-year increase of 0.5 points [4][35]. - Cement prices continue to rise, supported by seasonal demand and supply constraints, with a notable increase in the northern regions entering the winter production adjustment phase [4][39]. - The implementation of new capacity replacement regulations for cement and glass industries is expected to accelerate supply optimization and enhance industry structure [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The building materials industry plays a crucial role in supporting various sectors, including infrastructure, defense, and emerging industries, with China leading in the production of multiple building materials [19][20]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes green, low-carbon, and intelligent manufacturing as future development directions for the industry [21][22]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Cement prices are on the rise, with northern regions entering a winter production adjustment phase, leading to a significant reduction in supply [39][42]. - The demand for fiberglass remains stable, with slight price increases observed in November due to production adjustments and inventory management [75][76]. 3. Market Performance - The retail sector for construction and decoration materials showed signs of improvement, with a month-on-month increase of 4.9% in October, despite a year-on-year decline [4][72]. - The overall market for building materials is expected to face challenges in 2024, with weak demand and low prices anticipated [29][34]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with product quality and brand advantages, such as North New Building Materials and Huaxin Cement, as they are likely to benefit from policy support and market recovery [4][11].

行业月报 · 传媒互联网行业 "谷子经济"高景气，IP 布局进行时 11 月行业月报 核心观点 ● 11 月票房企稳,关注后续供给拐点。根据灯塔专业版数据,全国11月票房 18.77 亿元(含服务费),同比增长 11.4%,环比下降 48.1%。需求端, 11 月放映场次 1125.7万场,同比增长 29.2%,环比下降 7.6%;上座率 3.5%, 同比下降 10.3%,环比下降 42.6%;观影人次 0.48亿,同比增长 14.3%, 环比下降 46.7%。11月上映影片数 59部,影片数同环比分别增长 20.4%、 68.6%。目前已有 34部重点影片预计于 12月上映,关注后续重点影片的定档 和上线情况。 ● 游戏市场连续增长,营销大盘阶段调整:2024年10月,国内游戏市场实际 销售收入 290.83亿元,环比下跌 4.10%,同比增长 14.40%,增长趋势较为平 稳,市场规模连续 3个月保持同比增长。2024年前十一个月版号发放数量为 1184款,较去年同期的873款增长超 36%。随着年中新游产品陆续释放业绩, 预计游戏市场增长趋势有望保持。根据 CTR 发布的《2024年1-9月广告市场 投 ...