每日晨报 智 H 虎 银河观点集萃 ● 宏观:十万亿,怎么看——人大常委会快评。权益市场方面,我们认为本轮化 债方案及后续增量财政政策补齐了一揽子政策中最重要的一块拼图,显著降低 了宏观层面不确定性。一方面,本轮化债方案规模大且注重实效,体现了财政 的"主动作为",这种态度转变尤其重要。另一方面,明年增量财政政策规模 依然可期,包括提升赤字、扩大专项债规模、加大超长期特别国债支持两新的 力度等,这对于经济回升向上具有积极作用。更重要的是,本轮政策由中央层 面统一部署,是系统性、前瞻性应对经济结构转型的解决方案,底层逻辑重构 将带来权益市场的向上力量。 ● 宏观:美国的关税,汇率的两面。短期维度:非美货币面临冲击,冲击来自与 美元利差扩大和僧绪面,但后续调整幅度可能小于市场预期。人民币可能在 7.1-7.3 的区间保持较大弹性的波动。中期维度:即便加征关税落地,对人民 币冲击将弱于2018年。汇率对货币政策与经济可能的影响。汇率拥有两面, 一方面,基本稳定的汇率是实现币值稳定的关键。另一方面,汇率是国际收支 平衡的调节器,货币走弱有助于产出缺口收窄。 ● 策略:人大常委会后如何看市场?A股市场配置机会:(1)地 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [4]. Core Insights - The agriculture sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with the Agricultural, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery index rising by 6.04% from November 4 to November 8, compared to a 5.50% increase in the CSI 300 [1][10]. - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is experiencing increased losses from external piglet purchases, while self-breeding and self-raising profits remain relatively stable [2][3]. - The report suggests a favorable supply-demand balance in the pig farming sector, recommending investments in leading companies such as Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, Tian Kang Biological, and Shennong Group [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Pig Farming - As of November 8, the price of live pigs was 16.64 CNY/kg, down 4.04% week-on-week, while the price of 15kg piglets increased by 6.76% to 35.05 CNY/kg [2][14]. - The profit for self-breeding pigs was reported at 263.75 CNY per head, a decrease of 7.19% week-on-week, while losses for externally purchased piglets increased significantly [2][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of winter temperatures on disease outbreaks in the coming months [2]. 2. Chicken Farming - The chicken farming sector's price-to-book ratio (PB) was 1.87 as of November 8, reflecting a 6.25% increase week-on-week [21]. - The average price of broiler chickens was stable at 3.82 CNY per jin, while the price of chicken seedlings rose by 1.21% to 4.17 CNY per chick [21]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with cost advantages in the yellow feather chicken segment, such as Lihua Stock, due to expected price increases [2][3]. 3. Feed Industry - The report notes that corn prices were 2233 CNY/ton, down 0.40% week-on-week, while soybean meal prices increased by 3.59% to 3175 CNY/ton [3][41]. - The feed sector is advised to focus on companies with strong supply chain management and research capabilities, such as Haida Group [3][41]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on several key companies across different segments: Wens Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, Tian Kang Biological, Shennong Group in pig farming; Lihua Stock in yellow feather chicken farming; and Haida Group in the feed business [3][4]. - The overall valuation of the agriculture sector is considered to be at a historically low level, presenting potential investment opportunities [3][4].

Core Insights - The North Exchange 50 Index experienced a weekly increase of 21.53%, with 248 out of 256 listed companies showing positive growth, led by Yintu Network (+126.35%) and Zhisheng Information (+117.24%) [1][11] - All sectors on the North Exchange saw gains, with the defense and military industry leading at +51.1%, followed by food and beverage (+40.7%) and computer industry (+35.3%) [1][11] - The overall trading activity on the North Exchange remains high, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 49.83 billion yuan and a total weekly trading volume of 249.13 billion yuan, marking a 10.31% increase from the previous week [1][7] Market Performance - The North Exchange's overall price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is around 43.5 times, surpassing the ChiNext board for the first time, with the ChiNext at 38.7 times and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board at 48.7 times [2][21] - The media industry has the highest average P/E ratio at 2339.4 times, followed by light industry manufacturing (233.7 times) and basic chemicals (199.0 times) [2][21] - The trading volume and amount on the North Exchange have shown a fluctuating upward trend since 2022, with weekly trading totals stabilizing above 50 billion yuan since November 2023 [10][21] Investment Strategy - The North Exchange is recommended for investment due to its high trading activity and ongoing new stock issuance. Key investment directions for Q4 2024 include focusing on high-growth companies with strong R&D investment, state-owned enterprises with high return on equity, companies benefiting from capacity release and mergers, and those with high dividend yields [3][24]

Group 1 - The overall GDP of 31 provinces reached 94.3 trillion yuan, with Guangdong and Jiangsu exceeding 9 trillion yuan each, maintaining their positions in the top ten provinces [4][12][34] - The economic growth rate across provinces has narrowed, with a range of 1.8% to 6.2%, indicating a reduction in inter-provincial disparities, although the Northeast region remains under pressure [4][20][32] - Most provinces face pressure to meet annual economic growth targets, with 24 out of 31 provinces showing actual GDP growth below their targets, particularly in the Northeast [4][40] Group 2 - Retail sales in developed regions underperformed expectations, with 28 provinces experiencing negative growth in real estate investment, impacting fixed asset investment significantly [5][44] - The importance of regional economic development has increased, with policies focusing on balanced growth and coordinated development [5][6] - Achieving annual economic development goals requires a balance between immediate actions and long-term strategies, emphasizing the need for reforms and effective policy implementation [5][40]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the public utility sector [8][12]. Core Insights - The first Energy Law of China was passed on November 8, 2023, emphasizing energy security and green low-carbon transformation, set to take effect on January 1, 2025 [1]. - The Energy Law prioritizes the development and utilization of renewable energy, including hydropower, wind, and solar energy, while also ensuring the orderly development of nuclear power and coal power [1]. - The law establishes responsibilities for various entities to absorb renewable energy generation, aiming to enhance the demand for renewable energy [3]. - The report anticipates an increase in the renewable energy consumption responsibility weight by 3.03 percentage points in 2024 compared to 2023, with non-hydropower responsibility weight increasing by 3.95 percentage points [3]. - The Energy Law outlines measures to enhance the power system's adjustment capabilities, including improving coal power's flexibility, upgrading grid infrastructure, and developing energy storage solutions [4]. - The report suggests that the establishment of a diversified energy pricing mechanism will reflect costs and sustainable development needs, potentially alleviating current pricing pressures on renewable energy [8]. Summary by Sections Energy Law Overview - The Energy Law consists of nine chapters covering various aspects of energy planning, development, market systems, and innovation, marking a significant milestone in China's energy development history [1]. Renewable Energy Development - The law emphasizes the need for a coordinated approach to renewable energy development, including strict controls on small hydropower projects and support for distributed energy systems [1]. Responsibilities and Mechanisms - The report highlights the establishment of a minimum consumption ratio for renewable energy in the energy market, with specific targets for key energy-consuming sectors [3]. System Adjustment Capabilities - The report discusses the importance of enhancing the power system's ability to adjust to renewable energy fluctuations through improved infrastructure and demand-side management [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on opportunities in the renewable energy sector, particularly in new energy installations and the integration of hydropower with other renewable sources [8]. - It also highlights the potential for nuclear power to replace coal as a clean baseload power source, suggesting that companies like Three Gorges Energy and Longyuan Power are worth monitoring [8].

Group 1: Monetary Policy Direction - The central bank is shifting its monetary policy focus from "quantity and price control" to "price-based control" as the main approach[1] - M1 and M2 monetary supply statistics may be revised to include personal demand deposits and non-bank payment institutions' reserves, enhancing their sensitivity as economic indicators[1] - The central bank emphasizes that M2 statistics will be adjusted in line with the liquidity of financial instruments, indicating potential future changes[1] Group 2: Interest Rate Transmission - The 7-day reverse repurchase rate is now the anchor for the government bond yield curve, replacing the MLF in the new transmission path[2] - Market benchmark rates will include DR, government bond yields, and LPR, with short-term government bond yields now anchored to DR[2] - This change indicates a more direct relationship between policy rates and market interest rates, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission[2] Group 3: External Influences and Risks - The central bank is monitoring global inflation risks and potential changes in global trade and investment, which could impact China's monetary policy[2] - The report highlights that rising commodity prices and persistent service inflation may hinder further declines in inflation[2] - The upcoming U.S. elections could lead to policy adjustments that may affect global trade and investment, adding uncertainty to the Fed's interest rate path[2] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - The monetary policy stance remains supportive, with an emphasis on increasing the intensity and precision of monetary policy adjustments[3] - The report suggests potential paths for monetary easing in 2025, including significant reserve requirement ratio cuts of 150-200 basis points and net purchases of government bonds[3] - If the exchange rate faces pressure, the central bank may maintain the policy rate while lowering the 5-year LPR to stimulate financing[3]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI decreased by 0.3% month-on-month (previous value 0%), and increased by 0.3% year-on-year (previous value 0.4%) [1] - Food prices fell by 1.2% month-on-month (previous value 0.8%), while non-food prices remained flat (previous value -0.2%) [1] - The combined impact of pork, fresh vegetables, aquatic products, and fresh fruits led to a 0.20 percentage point decrease in CPI month-on-month, accounting for about 70% of the total decline [10] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI's month-on-month decline narrowed to 0.1% (previous value -0.6%), while the year-on-year decrease was 2.9% (previous value -2.8%) [15] - Production material prices shifted from a 0.8% decline to a 0.1% increase, while living material prices fell by 0.4% [15] - Durable consumer goods prices decreased by 1.1%, significantly impacting the PPI recovery [19] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - The demand for travel during the National Day holiday supported non-food prices, which remained flat [11] - Consumer recovery momentum is weak, with prices for discretionary items like footwear and household appliances continuing to decline [13] - Core CPI showed a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2%, indicating a mild recovery [13] Group 4: Economic Outlook - CPI is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend, with a projected year-on-year central tendency of around 0.7% in Q4 [21] - The PPI year-on-year decline is anticipated to narrow, with an expected central tendency of approximately -2.5% in Q4 [22] - The real estate market remains weak, with a 10.4% year-on-year decrease in transaction area for major cities [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the securities industry, indicating a positive outlook relative to the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The overall performance of listed securities firms shows strong earnings elasticity, with a reduction in the decline of revenue and net profit compared to the first half of 2024. Revenue reached 371.43 billion yuan, down 2.41% year-on-year, while net profit was 103.45 billion yuan, down 5.54% year-on-year [1]. - Leading firms like CITIC Securities maintain a solid position, with revenue growth of 0.73% year-on-year, while Huatai Securities and Guotai Junan saw revenue increases of 15.41% and 7.29%, respectively [1]. - The report highlights the recovery of investor confidence in China's capital markets, driven by supportive policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting the stock market, which is expected to enhance the profitability of the securities sector [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Performance - As of Q3 2024, the 43 listed securities firms achieved total revenue of 371.43 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 10.28 percentage points compared to H1 2024. Net profit reached 103.45 billion yuan, with a decline reduction of 16.39 percentage points [1]. - CITIC Securities reported a net profit of 16.80 billion yuan, up 2.35% year-on-year, while Huatai Securities and Guotai Junan reported net profits of 12.52 billion yuan and 9.52 billion yuan, with increases of 30.63% and 10.38%, respectively [1]. Profitability Metrics - Huatai Securities leads the industry in return on equity (ROE) at 7.59%, an increase of 4.41 percentage points from H1 2024. CITIC Securities and招商证券 follow with ROEs of 6.3% and 6.12% [2]. - 招商证券 boasts a net profit margin of 50.07%, significantly higher than other listed firms, while国海证券 and中泰证券 have lower margins of 6.31% and 6.77% [2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates continued performance improvement for listed securities firms in Q4 2024, supported by a favorable liquidity environment and ongoing policy measures aimed at enhancing market conditions and investor confidence [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting the sector's configuration value due to the unexpected scale of local government debt risk resolution and the anticipated long-term benefits from improved local economic fundamentals [3]. Core Insights - The report discusses a significant policy initiative involving a combination of 6 trillion yuan in local government debt limit increases and 4 trillion yuan in special bonds aimed at debt resolution, which is expected to alleviate local debt pressure substantially [2]. - It estimates that the debt resolution measures will lead to a reduction in local government hidden debt from 14.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028, while also emphasizing the need to curb new hidden debts [2]. - The short-term impact on banks from debt replacement is manageable, with a projected cumulative impact on net interest margin (NIM) of approximately -20.75 basis points over five years [2]. - The report anticipates that the issuance of special government bonds will enhance the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of major state-owned banks to between 13.26% and 13.74%, potentially unlocking 10.7 to 15.2 trillion yuan in incremental credit [3]. Summary by Sections Debt Resolution Measures - The report outlines a comprehensive debt resolution strategy that includes a 6 trillion yuan increase in local government debt limits and 4 trillion yuan in special bonds, which will be implemented over three years [2]. - The total resources for local debt resolution are expected to increase by 10 trillion yuan, significantly reducing the hidden debt burden [2]. Impact on Banking Sector - The report notes that while the debt replacement will lead to a decrease in bank asset yields, the overall impact on banks' asset quality is expected to be limited due to their predominant holdings in government and financial bonds [2]. - It highlights that the capital replenishment efforts by major banks are accelerating, which will support their credit issuance capabilities and risk resilience [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific banks for investment, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Postal Savings Bank of China, Jiangsu Bank, and Changshu Bank, based on their favorable positioning in the current market environment [3].

Group 1: Government Debt Policy - The National People's Congress approved a resolution to increase local government debt limits by 6 trillion yuan to replace existing hidden debts[1] - Starting in 2024, 800 billion yuan will be allocated annually from new local government special bonds for five years, totaling 4 trillion yuan to replace hidden debts[1] - The total increase in local debt resources amounts to 10 trillion yuan, including the approved 6 trillion yuan limit[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Ministry of Finance plans to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments and utilize available deficit space to support economic growth[1] - A significant reduction in hidden debt pressure is expected, decreasing from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028[1] - The A-share market is currently at a historical average valuation, with a PE ratio of 19.25 and a PB ratio of 1.64, indicating medium to long-term investment value[2] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The real estate sector has seen a 44.43% increase since September 24, driven by supportive policies[2] - Fixed asset investment grew by 3.4% year-on-year, with equipment purchases increasing by 16.4%[2] - The focus on technological innovation is emphasized, with new productivity themes expected to enhance corporate valuations in strategic emerging industries[2] Group 4: Risks - There are uncertainties regarding the effectiveness of domestic policies and potential geopolitical disruptions[2] - Market sentiment remains unstable, posing risks to investment confidence[2]