Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point (BP) rate cut, bringing the target rate to 4.50%-4.75%[1] - The decision was unanimous among the participants, with a 12-0 vote[7] - Future rate cuts will depend on inflation and employment data, particularly in light of uncertainties from the Trump administration[8] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The Fed's focus has shifted from inflation to the labor market, indicating a more cautious approach to future rate cuts[9] - The cumulative rate cut forecast for 2024 and 2025 has been reduced from 100 BP to 75 BP[9] - There is a low probability of rate hikes in 2025, as the Fed aims to observe the impact of Trump's policies on the economy[9] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock markets rose, while the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.33%[11] - The U.S. dollar index decreased to 104.35, and gold prices increased to $2,707 per ounce[11] - The market anticipates a 25 BP rate cut in December, but a pause in cuts is also possible depending on economic data[11] Group 4: Treasury Issuance Plans - The U.S. Treasury plans to issue approximately $546 billion in privately-held marketable debt in Q4 2024, slightly lower than previous forecasts[14] - The net supply of medium to long-term debt remains stable, alleviating concerns about sudden increases in long-term debt supply post-election[14] - Short-term debt issuance is expected to increase to $3.74 trillion in Q1 2025 due to fiscal needs[18]

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy does not currently exhibit signs of recession[4] - The Federal Reserve's meeting in November will focus on interest rate decisions[4] Market Impact - The report discusses the implications for major asset classes, including commodities, bonds, currencies, and equities[4] - Specific attention is given to the commodity market's response to economic indicators[4] Economic Indicators - GDP growth is projected at 5.0% for Q4 2023, with a gradual decline expected in subsequent quarters[7] - The ISM PMI is reported at 60%, indicating strong economic activity[8] Risk Assessment - The report includes a section on risk warnings related to market volatility and economic uncertainties[4]

宏观专题报告 美国的关税, 汇率的两面 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------| | | | | | ● | 2024年 11月6日,美国大选尘埃落定,共和党候选人,美国前总统特朗普赢 | 分析师 | | | 得选举,美国进入"特朗普2.0 时代"。与此同时,共和党获得参议院控制权。 | 张迪 | | | 当日非美货币大幅走弱,人民币即期汇率快速下跌。本篇报告试图从短期与中 | ☎：010-8092-7737 | | | 期两个时间维度,给出我们关于人民币汇率的讨论。 | 网:zhangdi_yj@chinastock.com.c ...

Group 1: Climate Change and Economic Losses - In 2023, China's direct economic losses from natural disasters reached CNY 345.45 billion due to extreme drought, high temperatures, and typhoons[2] - Japan experienced six disaster events in 2023, resulting in cumulative losses exceeding USD 2.5 billion[2] - South Korea faced significant losses of USD 50 million from heavy rainfall and flooding in 2023[2] Group 2: Energy Transition Challenges - China aims for "carbon peak" by 2023 and "carbon neutrality" by 2060, necessitating a shift from coal, which constituted 55.3% of its energy consumption in 2023[3] - Japan's carbon emissions rose by 4.24% from 2011 to 2013 post-Fukushima, with a peak in 2013, and currently aims for carbon neutrality by 2050[3] - South Korea's coal-fired power generation accounted for 33.65% of its total electricity in 2022, with plans to increase renewable energy to 20% by 2030[3] Group 3: Green Finance Development - In 2023, China's green loan balance reached CNY 30.08 trillion, a 36.5% increase from 2022[5] - Japan's green credit issuance totaled JPY 947.4 billion, reflecting a 17.92% growth from the previous year[5] - The scale of green bonds in China, Japan, and South Korea was USD 83.51 billion, USD 15.021 billion, and USD 9.906 billion respectively[5] Group 4: Investment Needs and Opportunities - China's green low-carbon investment potential is estimated between CNY 140 trillion to CNY 200 trillion[4] - Japan plans to invest JPY 3.7 trillion in hydrogen industry development over the next decade[4] - South Korea aims to establish over 2,000 hydrogen stations nationwide by 2050[4]

Group 1: Debt Policy and Economic Impact - The new local government debt limit of 6 trillion yuan is aimed at replacing existing hidden debts, providing local governments with more room to develop the economy and ensure livelihoods[3] - The total hidden debt that needs to be addressed has decreased from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan, with an average annual reduction from 2.86 trillion yuan to 460 billion yuan[4] - The debt replacement plan is expected to enhance local government fiscal spending by at least 1 trillion yuan annually, potentially increasing GDP growth by 0.76%[3] Group 2: Market Expectations and Investment Insights - The new round of debt replacement is anticipated to improve market liquidity and boost market expectations, indirectly alleviating corporate debts[3] - The expected issuance of special bonds could reach 4.2 to 4.5 trillion yuan next year, with a focus on consumption and social security[7] - The overall fiscal deficit rate is projected to rise significantly to around 12.5% next year, which is expected to effectively stimulate domestic demand[7] Group 3: Future Projections and Risks - The debt replacement process is expected to achieve an annual debt replacement of 2.8 trillion yuan, enhancing efficiency compared to previous rounds[3] - The bond market is likely to face supply disturbances, but the issuance pressure of around 2 trillion yuan is manageable, with the central bank expected to maintain liquidity[8] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation, consumer confidence recovery, and economic recovery from overseas markets[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [4] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing demand pressure, but cost benefits continue to be realized. In Q3 2024, the non-alcoholic food and beverage segment reported a revenue decline of 4.0% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 6.1% year-on-year. The revenue decline is narrowing compared to previous quarters, and profit growth is supported by cost reductions and inventory adjustments [1][10] Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Performance Summary - The non-alcoholic segment's revenue and net profit showed a year-on-year decline of 4.0% and an increase of 6.1%, respectively. The overall revenue decline is less severe than in previous quarters, while profits benefit from cost reductions and improved inventory management [1][10] - Sub-segments such as condiments, soft drinks, and snacks show resilience, with soft drinks achieving a revenue growth of 16.8% and a net profit growth of 22.9% in Q3 2024, driven by strong outdoor consumption and cost benefits [1][10] - Snacks reported a revenue increase of 6.3% and a net profit increase of 20.2%, benefiting from strategic positioning in niche categories and channel advantages [1][10] - Condiments saw a revenue growth of 6.6% and a net profit growth of 14.2%, aided by inventory adjustments and declining raw material costs [1][10] - Dairy products faced a revenue decline of 6.3% but a net profit increase of 13.5%, supported by favorable raw milk prices and stabilization of pricing strategies [1][10] Fundamental Tracking - In October 2024, most raw material prices continued to decline, with packaging materials like PET and cardboard down by 10.2% and 8.6% year-on-year, respectively. Sugar and soybean prices also saw significant declines of 10.6% and 16.3% year-on-year [2] Market Tracking - As of October 31, 2024, the food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 9.4%, ranking last among 31 sub-sectors. The snack segment saw a rise of 4.2%, while soft drinks, dairy, and condiments experienced smaller declines of -1.3%, -3.0%, and -4.1%, respectively [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with resilient performance and clear long-term industry logic, particularly snacks, beverages, and condiments. Key companies to watch include Three Squirrels, Zhizhi Food, Dongpeng Beverage, and others [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the LCD panel market, indicating a recovery from the bottom, while OLED continues to maintain a tight supply-demand balance [3]. Core Viewpoints - The panel industry has shown resilience with a total revenue of 418.46 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, and a net profit of 2.42 billion yuan, up 144.6% year-on-year [1]. - OLED panel companies have performed well, with 31 out of 40 companies reporting positive revenue growth, and several companies, including Huaguang Optoelectronics and Visionox, seeing revenue increases exceeding 40% [1]. - The third quarter of 2024 saw a slight revenue growth of 0.5% and a significant net profit increase of 249.3% for the panel sector, indicating a potential recovery in the market [2]. Summary by Sections LCD Market - The demand for large-size panels remains subdued due to global economic slowdown, but the competitive landscape is improving, supporting healthy industry development [3]. - The price of TV panels has stabilized after a mild increase earlier in the year, with expectations for demand to improve in the fourth quarter and into 2025 [3]. OLED Market - The penetration of flexible AMOLED panels in smartphones is expected to increase significantly in 2024, with a notable rise in shipments and market share for foldable products [3]. - The transition of mid-size IT products to AMOLED technology is anticipated to enhance OLED profitability in the future [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as BOE Technology Group, TCL Technology, Shenzhen Tianma A, and Visionox, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery in the LCD market and the ongoing demand for OLED products [3].

Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the defense and military industry [4] Core Views - The defense and military industry is under pressure in terms of both revenue and profits, with a significant decline in net profit due to reduced economies of scale [1] - The industry is expected to see a reversal in Q4, with high growth prospects for 2025, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and increased orders [23] - Short-term catalysts include the Zhuhai Airshow and geopolitical changes, while long-term growth is supported by military modernization and state-owned enterprise reforms [2] Performance Analysis Revenue and Profit - In the first three quarters of 2024, the defense and military sector's revenue was 387.466 billion yuan, down 6.45% YoY, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 21.696 billion yuan, down 33.52% YoY [1] - Q3 2024 revenue was 124.563 billion yuan, down 7.73% YoY, and net profit was 5.141 billion yuan, down 47.05% YoY [17] - The decline in net profit is attributed to falling gross margins and rising expense ratios, with gross margins dropping to 19.94% in Q3 2024, down 2.01 percentage points YoY [17] Balance Sheet - Total assets in Q3 2024 were 1.32718 trillion yuan, up 8.35% from the beginning of the year, while total liabilities were 606.707 billion yuan, up 8.20% [26] - Accounts receivable increased by 14.17% to 315.389 billion yuan, while inventory rose by 10.03% to 271.046 billion yuan [26] Cash Flow - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was -45.043 billion yuan, while investment cash flow was -15.591 billion yuan [37] Sub-Sector Performance Host Manufacturers - Revenue for host manufacturers in the first three quarters of 2024 was 110.85 billion yuan, down 8.8% YoY, with net profit down 26.73% YoY [41] - Q3 2024 revenue was 33.7 billion yuan, down 11.3% YoY, and net profit was 670 million yuan, down 63.9% YoY [41] Military Informatization - Revenue for the military informatization sector in the first three quarters of 2024 was 89.788 billion yuan, down 17.8% YoY, with net profit down 46.2% YoY [48] - Q3 2024 revenue was 27.398 billion yuan, down 19.5% YoY, and net profit was 1.418 billion yuan, down 51.4% YoY [48] Military New Materials - Revenue for the military new materials sector in the first three quarters of 2024 was 36.428 billion yuan, up 0.6% YoY, but net profit fell 11.9% YoY [52] - Q3 2024 revenue was 12.365 billion yuan, up 1.4% YoY, while net profit was 1.585 billion yuan, down 12.7% YoY [52] Military Components - Revenue for the military components sector in the first three quarters of 2024 was 31.682 billion yuan, down 17.8% YoY, with net profit down 34.3% YoY [56] - Q3 2024 revenue was 10.42 billion yuan, down 16.8% YoY, and net profit was 1.571 billion yuan, down 36.8% YoY [56] Fund Holdings - Active mutual funds' holdings in the defense and military sector reached 3.52% in Q3 2024, up 0.07 percentage points QoQ [66] - The concentration of fund holdings (CR10) in the sector was 61.58%, up 2.36 percentage points QoQ [69] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with short-term positive changes and long-term growth potential, such as AVIC Shenyang, Sichuan Jiuzhou, and China Satcom [2] - State-owned enterprise reform beneficiaries, including AVIC Materials and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, are also recommended [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy is showing signs of recovery, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 50.10% in October, indicating a return to expansion for the first time since April [15][19]. - A series of government policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth are expected to further enhance the outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry, potentially driving prices and industry sentiment upward [15][19]. - The performance of the A-share non-ferrous metals sector is expected to improve despite a slowdown in growth rates, with cumulative revenue growth of 1.86% and profit growth of 2.37% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024 [42]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Initiatives and Economic Recovery - Continuous government policies are anticipated to drive the non-ferrous metals industry's recovery, with improved economic momentum leading to better demand for non-ferrous metals [15][19]. - The real estate sector, a major consumer of non-ferrous metals, is still in decline, but overall economic policies are expected to create new demand hotspots [24][39]. 2. Financial Performance of the Industry - The A-share non-ferrous metals sector's overall return on equity (ROE) decreased to 2.34% in Q3 2024, primarily due to a decline in asset turnover [42]. - Despite a decrease in quarterly performance, the overall trend of recovery remains intact, with Q3 2024 showing a 9.98% year-on-year profit growth [42]. 3. Sub-industry Dynamics - There is a divergence in the performance of different sub-industries within the non-ferrous metals sector, with some experiencing price fluctuations due to varying demand and supply conditions [39]. - The report highlights that while copper prices fell by 3.02% in October, aluminum prices increased by 0.83%, indicating mixed performance across different metals [39]. 4. Future Growth Points - The report suggests that overseas resources and new metals will become future growth points for the non-ferrous metals industry, as domestic growth potential appears limited [5][24]. - The focus on new materials and overseas mining resources is expected to drive future growth in the sector [5][24].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating to the company with a reasonable value per share range of HKD 22 78 to HKD 31 51 [1][4] Core Views - The company is a leader in the LiDAR industry and is entering a period of rapid growth with revenue increasing nearly 6 times from 2020 to 2023 reaching RMB 1 12 billion [1] - The company has three major product platforms M E and R covering ADAS robots and Robotaxi with new products MX M3 and M2 launched this year to further improve cost performance [1] - The company is expanding its production capacity with the MARS manufacturing base expected to have an initial capacity of 1 million units and the new product MX will be mass produced and delivered in the first half of next year [1] - The LiDAR market is expected to grow significantly with the global automotive LiDAR market projected to reach USD 3 6 billion by 2029 with a CAGR of 38% from 2023 to 2029 [1] - The company is transitioning into an AI driven robotics company with its self developed SoC chip reducing costs and enabling the penetration of LiDAR into the 150k 200k RMB price range for vehicles [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of RMB 1 83 billion RMB 2 916 billion and RMB 4 771 billion in 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively [1][2] - Net profit is forecasted to be RMB 575 million RMB 427 million and RMB 11 million in 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively [1][2] Market Position and Growth - The company holds a 37% market share in the LiDAR market ranking first and has secured mass production orders for 80 models from 22 automotive OEMs and Tier 1 suppliers [1][12] - The company has a diversified customer base including 2600+ robotics customers such as Alibaba and Neolix and is expanding into service robots humanoid robots and Robotaxi [1][12] Product and Technology - The company has three major LiDAR platforms M E and R covering automotive and robotics applications with new products MX M3 and M2 leading the industry in cost performance [1][25] - The company has self developed SoC chips which reduce the cost of control and transceiver modules enabling the price of the new product MX to drop below USD 200 [1][68] Production Capacity - The company is building the MARS manufacturing base with an initial capacity of 1 million units and the new product MX will be mass produced and delivered in the first half of next year [1][27] Financial Performance - In H1 2024 the company achieved revenue of RMB 727 million a year on year increase of 120 97% driven by strong sales of ADAS products [1][28] - The gross margin of ADAS products turned positive to 11 20% in H1 2024 compared to 35 50% in the same period last year [1][28] Future Growth Drivers - The company is leveraging its hardware AI and chip technology stacks to grow into a robotics technology platform company expanding into humanoid robots service robots and Robotaxi [1][88] - The company has self developed AI perception software HyperVision which provides high quality perception information and enhances its integrated product capabilities [1][83]