Investment Strategy - The report highlights the recent updates in stablecoin policies in the US and Hong Kong, indicating a shift towards the formalization of cryptocurrencies, which may lead to increased adoption of stablecoins [10][11] - The global issuance of stablecoins has surpassed $240 billion as of May 3, 2025, suggesting that stablecoins are becoming a significant part of the cryptocurrency ecosystem [11] - The report emphasizes the growing demand for AI applications, with ChatGPT achieving 620 million monthly active users as of May 2025, surpassing traditional social media platforms [12][13] Industry News - The "Stablecoin Regulation" in Hong Kong will officially take effect on August 1, 2025, establishing a licensing system for stablecoin activities, which is expected to accelerate the compliance and formalization of stable currencies [14] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued the "Computing Power Interconnection Action Plan," aiming to establish a comprehensive standard and rule system for computing power interconnection by 2026 [15][16] - China Mobile has announced the winners of its centralized procurement for AI general computing devices, with a total estimated procurement scale of 7,058 units, indicating ongoing investment in AI infrastructure [17] Market Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a 5.06% increase this week, outperforming major indices, with significant gains in optical modules and optical communication [19][20] - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the digital currency and computing power sectors, highlighting companies such as Chutianlong and Hengbao [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (from June 3rd to June 6th), the money market rate declined, the average daily net lending of large - scale banks increased, and the leverage ratio of funds slightly rose. The net financing of certificates of deposit decreased, and the yields to maturity of certificates of deposit with different maturities showed differentiation. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were other product types, mainly increasing holdings of certificates of deposit. Rural commercial banks switched to increasing holdings of certificates of deposit, insurance companies increased holdings of ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds with maturities of 15 - 30 years, funds increased holdings of interest - rate bonds across all maturities, and large - scale banks bought interest - rate bonds with maturities of 1 - 3 years. [3] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money and Capital Market - A total of 1602.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired this week. The central bank conducted reverse repurchases of 454.5 billion, 214.9 billion, 126.5 billion, and 135 billion yuan from Tuesday to Friday, with a total injection of 930.9 billion yuan and a net liquidity withdrawal of 671.7 billion yuan for the whole week. [5][10] - As of June 6th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.45%, 1.55%, 1.41%, and 1.53% respectively, with changes of - 11.9BP, - 14.58BP, - 6.98BP, and - 13.22BP compared to May 30th, and were at the 19%, 9%, 16%, and 3% historical quantiles respectively. [5][12] - The net borrowing scale of the main fund lenders increased. The main lending institutions (large - scale commercial/policy banks and joint - stock commercial banks) had a net borrowing of - 341.2 billion yuan for the whole week, an increase of 284.3 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [5][17] - The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.5 trillion yuan and a maximum single - day trading volume of 7.86 trillion yuan, a 15.42% increase compared to the previous week's average daily volume. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions increased, with an average daily proportion of 87.5% and a maximum single - day proportion of 90.4%, a 3.61 - percentage - point increase compared to the previous week's average daily proportion. [5][24] - The leverage ratio of broad - based funds slightly increased. As of June 6th, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.3%, 202.5%, 127.1%, and 105.4% respectively, with changes of 0.41BP, 14.27BP, - 0.68BP, and 0.1BP compared to May 30th, and were at the 17%, 17%, 60%, and 39% historical quantiles respectively. [5][28] 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - This week, the issuance scale of certificates of deposit decreased, and the net financing amount decreased compared to the previous week. The total issuance was 585.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 82.91 billion yuan compared to the previous week; the total maturity was 664.37 billion yuan, an increase of 11.64 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing amount was - 78.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 94.55 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [5][32] - By bank type, city commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. This week, the issuance scales of certificates of deposit by state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 151.88 billion, 161.56 billion, 223.54 billion, and 44.51 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 214.34 billion, 69.4 billion, 45.4 billion, and 14.02 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [32] - By maturity type, the 6 - month issuance scale was the highest. The issuance scales of 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year certificates of deposit were 44.1 billion, 133.53 billion, 236.64 billion, 88.58 billion, and 122.43 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 311.5 billion, 443.3 billion, 929.5 billion, 806.6 billion, and - 2697 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [33] - This week, the issuance interest rates of certificates of deposit by different banks and with different maturities showed differentiation. By bank type, as of June 6th, the issuance interest rates of 1 - year certificates of deposit by joint - stock banks and city commercial banks changed by 0BP and - 2.83BP respectively compared to May 30th, and were at the 2% and 1% historical quantiles. By maturity, as of June 6th, the issuance interest rates of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 6 - month certificates of deposit changed by 2.64BP, 4.13BP, and - 5.23BP respectively compared to May 30th, and were at the 6%, 2%, and 1% historical quantiles. [41] - This week, the Shibor rates generally declined. As of June 6th, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1 - month, and 3 - month Shibor rates changed by - 6BP, - 11.7BP, - 15.1BP, - 0.1BP, and - 0.1BP respectively compared to May 30th, reaching 1.41%, 1.5%, 1.59%, 1.62%, and 1.65%. [43] - This week, the yield - to - maturity curve of certificates of deposit flattened. As of June 6th, the yield - to - maturities of AAA - rated ChinaBond commercial bank certificates of deposit with maturities of 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, and 1 year were 1.63%, 1.66%, 1.65%, 1.68%, and 1.68% respectively, with changes of 8.49BP, - 0.52BP, - 3BP, - 3BP, and - 2.75BP compared to May 30th. [45] - This week, the bill interest rates showed differentiation. As of June 3rd, the 3 - month direct discount rate, 3 - month transfer discount rate, 6 - month direct discount rate, and 6 - month transfer discount rate of state - owned shares were 1.15%, 1.02%, 1.14%, and 1.09% respectively, with changes of - 5BP, - 14BP, 0BP, and 3BP compared to May 30th. [46] 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - This week, the main buyers of cash bonds were other product types, with a net purchase of 8.92 billion yuan, a decrease compared to the previous week's purchase scale; the main sellers were joint - stock banks, with a net sale of 22.38 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week's sale scale. [5][48] - This week, funds had a net purchase of 7.84 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 5.3 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 1.5533 billion yuan in credit bonds, 750 million yuan in other (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 210 million yuan in certificates of deposit. By maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 3 - 5 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased within 1 year. [5][48] - This week, wealth management products had a net purchase of 4.61 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 720 million yuan in interest - rate bonds, 1.04 billion yuan in credit bonds, 850 million yuan in other (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 2 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. By maturity, interest - rate bonds and credit bonds were mainly increased within 1 year. [5][50] - This week, rural financial institutions had a net purchase of 3.99 billion yuan of cash bonds, including a decrease of 2.19 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 80 million yuan in credit bonds, 360 million yuan in other (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 5.73 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. By maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly decreased in the 1 - 3 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased within 1 year. [50] - This week, insurance companies had a net purchase of 4.31 billion yuan of cash bonds, including an increase of 3.23 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, 380 million yuan in credit bonds, a decrease of 210 million yuan in other (including Tier 2 and perpetual bonds), and 900 million yuan in certificates of deposit. By maturity, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 20 - 30 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the 3 - 5 - year range. [50]

海外市场周报 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025年06月09日 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号: S0120523080002 邮箱:xuewei@tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号:S0120523070007 邮箱:tansy@tebon.com.cn 投资要点: ● 上周全球股市涨多跌少。韩国综合指数领涨全球主要市场。美股三大指数集体上 涨,纳指、标普 500和道指涨跌幅分别为+2.2%、+1.5%和+1.2%;欧洲市场三大 主要指数集体上涨;亚太地区涨多跌少,仅越南 VN30和日经 225 指数回调。 | 会议,有望带来好消息。特朗普在国内遭遇马斯克冲击、海外对日对欧谈判踌躇难 | | --- | | 进的背景下,做出一些让步与妥协来寻求共识的诉求预计将有所加强。 | | ● 策略应对:布局风偏走高,警惕波动加剧。在全球市场有望迎来中美首轮磋商利好 | | 的背景下,布局风险偏好走高的思路值得关注,但同时也应警惕可能的波动加剧带 | | 来的潜在风险。从大类资产角度看,权益类是最优选择,特别是中美双方的权益市 | | 场，受可能利好的推动最强,而固收类与商品类则相对左侧,美债布局机会佳,金 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are expected to perform well in the long term, with gold prices rising by 1.42% recently due to increasing geopolitical tensions [5]. - Industrial metal prices have mostly increased, influenced by easing trade tensions between China and the U.S. [5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, driven by anticipated monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and domestic fiscal policies [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a slight increase, with a focus on long-term growth potential due to geopolitical instability [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have varied, with copper increasing by 1.4% and tin by 2.6% [27]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth metals, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have risen, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [29]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased, while nickel prices have shown some resilience, suggesting a need to monitor future demand growth [34]. 2. Market Data - The non-ferrous metals sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 3.74% increase compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.13% rise [36]. 3. Important Events Review - Recent geopolitical events, including tensions involving the U.S. and Russia, have influenced market sentiment and commodity prices [43].

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed a mixed performance last week, with the South Korean Composite Index leading gains among major markets[3] - The US stock indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones increasing by +2.2%, +1.5%, and +1.2% respectively[3] - European markets also saw collective gains, while the Asia-Pacific region had mixed results, with only Vietnam's VN30 and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices experiencing pullbacks[3] Employment Data - The US added 139,000 jobs in May, with an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months[3] - This job growth was better than market expectations but below the 12-month average increase of 149,000 jobs per month[3] - The ADP report indicated only 37,000 new jobs were created, significantly lower than the revised 60,000 from April and the market forecast of 110,000[3] Legislative Developments - The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" passed the House with a narrow margin, raising concerns over increasing fiscal deficits in the US[3] - Elon Musk criticized the bill, leading to a public fallout with former President Trump, which caused significant volatility in Tesla's stock price[3] US-China Trade Talks - The first meeting of the US-China economic consultation mechanism is scheduled from June 8 to June 13, potentially improving market risk appetite[3] - The previous high-level talks in Geneva have set a foundation for deeper negotiations, with expectations for positive outcomes[3] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on equities, particularly in the US and China, as they are likely to benefit from potential positive news from trade talks[3] - Caution is advised regarding increased volatility, with fixed income and commodities being less favorable in the current environment[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflation rebounds in overseas markets, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions escalating beyond expectations[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Views - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from a new round of supply-side reforms, with a focus on price increases for products like chlorantraniliprole and SAF [5][32] - The report highlights the resilience of major companies in the sector, suggesting that core assets are entering a long-term value zone [16][17] Summary by Sections 1. Core Views - The report emphasizes that policies initiated since September 2024 are likely to improve supply-demand dynamics in the chemical sector, potentially boosting demand for end-use chemical products [16] - It identifies chlorantraniliprole as a key product to watch due to supply constraints and rising prices, with a significant price increase of 123.9% noted recently [32] - SAF prices are also recovering, driven by improved procurement conditions in Europe and rising costs of raw materials [33][34] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index rose by 2.6% in the week of May 30 to June 6, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [19][20] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 5.8%, significantly outperforming the broader market indices [19][25] 3. Individual Stock Performance - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 347 stocks rose, with notable gainers including Lianhua Technology (+39.1%) and Lingpai Technology (+29%) [28][29] - Conversely, stocks like Hengtian Hailong (-15.9%) and Suzhou Longjie (-12.6%) experienced significant declines [28][29] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The report highlights the price surge of chlorantraniliprole and SAF, indicating a favorable market environment for these products [32] - It discusses the supply constraints faced by chlorantraniliprole producers, particularly due to the dominance of a few key players in the market [32] - The report also notes the potential for SAF companies in China to benefit from increased demand and improved procurement conditions in Europe [34]

Valuation Effects - As of the end of May, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3,285.255 billion, an increase of $3.59 billion month-on-month[6] - The valuation effect from rising bond yields in major economies is expected to negatively impact foreign reserves, estimated to decrease by around $20 billion[6] - The overall valuation and interest effects are estimated to reduce foreign exchange reserves by approximately $19 billion[6] Trading Factors - Excluding foreign capital flows, the net settlement and other currency demand are expected to contribute to an increase in foreign reserves of about $13 billion[7] - The trading factors are projected to lead to an increase in foreign reserves of approximately $23 billion[7] - The anticipated inflow of foreign capital into RMB assets is estimated to be around $10 billion due to improved market sentiment and easing trade tensions[7] Currency Outlook - The RMB exchange rate is expected to stabilize within the range of 7.1 to 7.2 as the impact of trade tensions dissipates[8] - The dollar index decreased by 0.2% from the end of April, contributing to a more favorable exchange rate environment for the RMB[6] Monetary Policy - The central bank's monetary policy is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with potential for further easing in the second half of the year[9] - Structural monetary policy tools are likely to focus on enhancing existing measures to support consumption and trade[9] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and geopolitical developments affecting exchange rates[9]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the current macroeconomic environment, highlighting three core influencing factors: external changes, internal trends, and policy shifts [2][8][12] - It discusses the political new cycle between China and the US, noting the strategic initiatives from the Trump administration aimed at reshaping the global distribution system, which may lead to increased pressure on China [9][10][11] - The report suggests that China's economic growth can achieve the 5% target for 2025, supported by manufacturing investment and broad infrastructure projects countering real estate downturns [12][13] Group 2 - The report identifies the need for a dual approach in asset allocation, focusing on both offensive and defensive strategies, particularly in a low inflation environment that supports resilient returns [14] - It highlights the significance of technology as a focal point in the great power competition, with opportunities in domestic upstream substitution and AI applications [14] - The report notes the importance of domestic policy variables, including mechanisms for stabilizing the market and the impact of new public fund regulations on future investment growth [14] Group 3 - The report outlines the expected resilience of "redemption" assets in a low inflation context, suggesting that emerging consumption trends should be prioritized for investment [14] - It discusses the steady growth of wealth management products and the decline in deposit rates, which are expected to support the bond market and similar assets [14] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor supply-demand dynamics in commodities, particularly in emerging industries and raw material adjustments [14]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is a global leader in polyurethane and is transitioning into a new materials platform enterprise, having expanded its business from MDI production to various chemical sectors [8] - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 22.5% to 13.03 billion yuan due to impairment losses and increased costs [4][14] - The company is expected to improve its asset quality and profitability in the future as it completes its impairment provisions [4] Summary by Sections Main Business Performance - The company reported a revenue of 182.07 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.03 billion yuan, down 22.5% [4][14] - In Q1 2025, the company generated a revenue of 43.07 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year but an increase of 25.0% quarter-on-quarter [4] - The company’s main business segments, including polyurethane, petrochemicals, fine chemicals, and new materials, showed varying growth rates, with sales volumes increasing by 15.3%, 15.9%, and 27.7% respectively in 2024 [4][14] Future Growth Prospects - The company is advancing several projects, including a 70,000-ton/year polyurethane expansion expected to be operational by Q2 2026 and a new TDI facility of 33,000 tons/year expected to start production in May 2025 [4][14] - The company is also forming a joint venture to invest in a 1.6 million tons/year specialty polyolefins project, which is anticipated to enhance its international presence [4][14] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 13.88 billion yuan, 17.15 billion yuan, and 19.98 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 6.5%, 23.6%, and 16.5% [4][14] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 4.42 yuan, 5.46 yuan, and 6.36 yuan for the same years [4][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to perform well in the long term despite a slight decline in domestic gold prices by 0.42% during the week of May 26 to June 1, 2025. The increase in U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% is anticipated to create uncertainty in global trade, which may support gold prices [7] - Industrial metal prices have generally declined, influenced by the tariff issues, with copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices dropping by 0.6%, 0.6%, 1.7%, 1.6%, 6.5%, and 1.8% respectively [7] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxide, have increased, indicating a potential growth in demand driven by manufacturing recovery [7] - Lithium prices have decreased, with carbonate lithium and lithium hydroxide prices down by 3.4% and 2.7% respectively, highlighting a need to monitor future demand for energy metals [7] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Domestic gold prices have shown a slight decline, but long-term prospects remain positive due to ongoing trade uncertainties [7] 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for industrial metals have mostly decreased, with significant drops in tin and nickel prices [30][7] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide have increased, while tungsten prices have also shown upward trends, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [31][34] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased significantly, with carbonate lithium down by 3.4% and industrial-grade lithium hydroxide down by 2.7%, suggesting a need for careful observation of future demand trends [37] 2. Market Data - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a decline of 2.40%, with various sub-sectors such as precious metals and industrial metals also experiencing downturns [38] 3. Key Events of the Week - U.S. President Trump announced an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, which is expected to impact the industrial metals market significantly [44]