[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 基础化工 2025 年 05 月 25 日 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 4.《氮磷肥内外价差增扩，关注出口 相关政策变化》，2025.5.11 5.《春潮涌动！烯草酮再涨价！》， 关注 PSPI 国产替代机会，活性 染料价格创近三年新高 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025.5.6 1.《当前或为化工龙头的最佳配置窗 口！》，2025.5.19 2.《宝丰能源(600989.SH)：内蒙基地 完成产能爬坡，股份回购彰显发展信 心》，2025.5.15 3.《新凤鸣(603225.SH)：业绩表现稳 中有进，看好长丝景气修复》， 2025.5.12 本周基础化工板块表现弱于大盘。根据 ...

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in April 2025 shows a steady improvement, with industrial production growing robustly and manufacturing investment increasing by 8.8% in the first four months, effectively offsetting a decline in real estate investment, which fell by 10.3%[5] - Social retail sales for January to April increased by 4.7% year-on-year, supported by the effects of trade and tourism[5] - Industrial added value rose by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months, with strong performance in equipment manufacturing[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year in April, with manufacturing investment at 8.8% and infrastructure investment at 5.8%[22] - The decline in real estate investment is significant, with a cumulative decrease of 10.3% in the first four months, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector[22] Policy and Structural Adjustments - The current low inflation environment necessitates a focus on price recovery, with policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and supporting real estate and consumption sectors[5] - The structural shift towards "manufacturing as a nation" continues to strengthen economic resilience, countering the negative impacts of real estate and consumption on growth[5] Future Outlook - The economy is entering a phase of gradual recovery, with potential turning points in negative narratives observed, suggesting a more optimistic outlook for RMB assets[5] - Risks include potential policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, further declines in real estate, and slower-than-expected implementation of new policies[6]

Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in April 2025 shows a steady improvement, with industrial production growing robustly and manufacturing investment increasing by 8.8% in the first four months, effectively offsetting a decline in real estate investment, which fell by 10.3%[5] - Social retail sales for January to April increased by 4.7% year-on-year, supported by the effects of trade and tourism[5] - Industrial added value rose by 6.4% year-on-year in the first four months, with strong performance in equipment manufacturing[5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year in April, with manufacturing investment at 8.8% and infrastructure investment at 5.8%[22] - The decline in real estate investment is significant, with a cumulative decrease of 10.3% in the first four months, indicating a need for policy support to stabilize the sector[22] Inflation and Pricing - The current economic environment is characterized by low inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at -0.1% and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at -2.7%[10] - The focus on price recovery is crucial, with core CPI recovery linked to the stabilization of the real estate market, which is essential for internal demand recovery[5] Structural Dynamics - The "Manufacturing Nation" strategy continues to strengthen economic resilience, effectively countering the negative impacts of real estate and consumption on economic growth[5] - The ongoing structural transformation is expected to gradually reduce the drag from real estate and consumption, allowing for a more balanced economic outlook[5] Future Outlook - The economic environment is entering a "dragon in the field" phase, suggesting a potential turning point in negative narratives, with a more optimistic view on RMB assets[5] - The macroeconomic policy is expected to dynamically calibrate and gradually strengthen, indicating a shift in market expectations[6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the "Jiutian" drone's broad application prospects, as it is involved in the development and production of this drone through its subsidiary, Chida Aircraft [5][8]. - The low-altitude economy is continuously developing, with policies and commercial applications evolving, indicating a promising future for the drone's civil market [5][8]. - Geopolitical events have validated the tactical advantages of drones, establishing a trend for special applications in emergency and military contexts [6][8]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025-2027 are estimated at 62.14 billion, 76.24 billion, and 90.71 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.26 billion, 6.30 billion, and 8.52 billion yuan [8][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are expected to be 0.17, 0.25, and 0.34 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 66.87, 45.22, and 33.45 times [8][9]. - The company’s total assets are reported at 20,017.26 million yuan, with a total market capitalization of 28,789.27 million yuan [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the "Jiutian" drone's broad application prospects, as it is involved in both military and civilian sectors [5][8]. - The low-altitude economy is continuously developing, with promising prospects for the civilian drone market, supported by favorable policies and commercial applications [5][8]. - The report highlights the strategic importance of drones in special applications, validated by recent geopolitical events [6][8]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 62.14 billion, 76.24 billion, and 90.71 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.26 billion, 6.30 billion, and 8.52 billion yuan [7][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for the same years are 0.17, 0.25, and 0.34 yuan, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 66.87, 45.22, and 33.45 respectively [7][8]. - The company’s total assets are reported at 20,017.26 million yuan, with a total market capitalization of 28,789.27 million yuan [7].

Investment Strategy - The report highlights that the recent adjustments in US chip export policies are expected to create opportunities for domestic chips in China, as the restrictions may push AI model manufacturers to shift towards local solutions despite the current technological gap [10][11][12] - It is noted that the long-term impact of US chip restrictions may lead to the establishment of an independent Chinese computing ecosystem, potentially enhancing competition against US firms [11][12] - The report indicates a decline in capital expenditures among major cloud vendors, which may accelerate the demand for domestic computing power as unmet needs from the first quarter are likely to be deferred to the second quarter [12][13] Industry News - The US has imposed new export controls, prohibiting the global use of Huawei's Ascend AI chips, which may compel Chinese model manufacturers to explore domestic computing options [14][15] - China Mobile has announced a centralized procurement project for AI general computing devices (inference type) with an estimated scale of 7,058 units, indicating strong demand in the inference segment [15][16] - Sichuan Province has introduced significant policies to support the low-altitude economy, which may lead to accelerated development in this sector [17][18] - The 2025 legislative work plan includes the preparation of regulations for satellite services, which could provide a legal basis for the large-scale construction of satellite internet [18] Market Review and Focus - The communication sector saw a slight increase of 0.02% this week, underperforming compared to major indices, with specific attention drawn to the performance of optical communication and RF indices [19][20] - The report suggests focusing on domestic computing and related sectors, including companies like Cambricon, Haiguang Information, and ZTE, as well as long-term attention on major operators and infrastructure providers [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector is experiencing a recovery in fundamentals due to price increases and cost improvements, driven by eased US-China tariff policies, which have boosted global economic confidence and chemical product demand [32][33] - The current period is seen as an optimal configuration window for leading chemical companies, with significant projects coming online and improving valuation expectations [33] - The capital expenditure in the chemical industry has shown a downward trend, confirming a turning point in the capacity cycle, with expectations for marginal improvements in supply [34] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policies aimed at improving supply-demand dynamics are expected to lead to investment opportunities in the chemical sector [16] - Core assets are entering a long-term value configuration, with potential for valuation and profit recovery [16] - Supply constraints in certain sectors are likely to lead to price elasticity, with specific companies poised to benefit [17] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.8% during the week, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [19][20] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 5.1%, significantly outperforming the broader market indices [19] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 303 stocks rose, with notable gainers including Yushansha A (+50.6%) and Jitai Co. (+47.1%) [27][28] - The report highlights the top ten gainers and losers in the sector, indicating a diverse performance landscape [29] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - Recent US-China tariff adjustments are expected to positively impact chemical product prices and demand [31][32] - Major projects from leading companies are coming to fruition, enhancing their market positions and valuations [33] - Several companies have announced significant financial maneuvers, including capital increases and strategic partnerships [36]

Market Performance - Major global stock markets experienced collective gains, with the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones increasing by +7.2%, +5.3%, and +3.4% respectively[3] - European indices also rose, with France's CAC40, UK's FTSE 100, and Germany's DAX increasing by +1.8%, +1.5%, and +1.1% respectively[3] - The Taiwan Weighted Index led gains in the Asia-Pacific region[3] Trade Relations - The temporary suspension of high tariffs in US-China negotiations has boosted market risk appetite, although uncertainty remains after the 90-day period[3] - The average tariff imposed by the US on China remains above 40%, despite the temporary suspension of certain tariffs[3] - The strategic pause in US-China trade tensions may be aimed at facilitating negotiations with Southeast Asian countries, which could impact US inflation and economic conditions[3] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's willingness to cut interest rates has decreased, with market expectations shifting towards maintaining current rates in June and July[3] - Recent economic data indicates signs of recession, with April PPI growth below expectations and a decline in consumer confidence[3] Legislative Concerns - The failure of the Republican tax and spending proposal highlights internal divisions, raising concerns about potential delays in tax relief and its impact on the economy[3] - The division within the Republican party may hinder fiscal measures aimed at restoring balance, leading to long-term economic concerns[3] Investment Strategy - Investment strategies should adapt to fluctuating market expectations between trade negotiations and economic downturns[3] - Short-term opportunities may arise from increased inventory accumulation in the US, particularly in sectors like apparel and accessories[3] - Attention should be given to long-term investment opportunities in US Treasuries following potential interest rate rebounds[3] Risk Factors - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to market volatility[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (from May 12th to May 16th), the funds rate increased, the large - scale banks' lending increased, and the funds leverage decreased. The net financing of certificates of deposit decreased, and the yields to maturity of certificates of deposit at all tenors increased. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were rural commercial banks, mainly increasing their holdings of 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds. The scale of funds' increased holdings decreased, insurance companies increased their holdings of 15 - 30Y ultra - long interest - rate bonds, and wealth management products increased their allocation of certificates of deposit [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monetary Fundamentals - This week, there were 961.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 125 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF maturing. From Monday to Friday, the central bank respectively injected 43, 180, 92, 64.5, and 106.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with a total injection of 486 billion yuan during the period. The net liquidity injection for the whole week was - 475.1 billion yuan [3][8]. - The funds price increased. As of May 16th, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.65%, 1.63%, 1.63%, and 1.64% respectively, with changes of 12.92BP, 4.46BP, 14.05BP, and 9.65BP compared to May 9th, and were at the 26%, 10%, 26%, and 7% historical quantiles respectively [3][13]. - The net borrowing scale of the main funds lenders increased. The main lending institutions (large - scale commercial/policy banks and joint - stock banks) had a net borrowing of - 1.76 billion yuan for the whole week, with an increase of 446.3 billion yuan in the net borrowing scale compared to the previous week. The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased, with an average daily trading volume of 7.14 trillion yuan and a single - day maximum of 7.51 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.85% compared to the previous week's average daily value. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions increased, with an average daily proportion of 88.4% and a single - day maximum of 89.6%, an increase of 2.57 percentage points compared to the previous week's average daily value [3]. - The leverage ratio of broad - based funds decreased slightly. As of May 16th, the leverage ratios of banks, securities firms, insurance companies, and broad - based funds were 103.1%, 196.0%, 125.8%, and 105.4% respectively, with changes of 0.71BP, - 11.18BP, - 2.19BP, and - 0.29BP compared to May 9th, and were at the 12%, 11%, 52%, and 35% historical quantiles respectively [3][28]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - This week, the issuance scale of certificates of deposit decreased, and the net financing decreased month - on - month. The total issuance was 513.24 billion yuan, a decrease of 344.49 billion yuan compared to the previous week; the total maturity was 576.2 billion yuan, an increase of 68.87 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was - 62.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 413.36 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3][32]. - By bank type, large - scale commercial banks had the highest issuance scale. This week, the issuance scales of certificates of deposit by state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 197.63 billion yuan, 67.47 billion yuan, 161.99 billion yuan, and 73.49 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 71.06 billion yuan, - 220.22 billion yuan, - 46.49 billion yuan, and 15.48 billion yuan compared to the previous week [32]. - By tenor type, the 3M issuance scale was the highest. The issuance scales of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y certificates of deposit were 21.83 billion yuan, 290.03 billion yuan, 80.39 billion yuan, 2.85 billion yuan, and 118.44 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 7 billion yuan, 74.02 billion yuan, - 102.04 billion yuan, - 107.36 billion yuan, and - 202.11 billion yuan compared to the previous week [33]. - This week, the bill rates increased. As of May 16th, the 3M direct discount rate and transfer discount rate of state - owned shares, and the 6M direct discount rate and transfer discount rate of state - owned shares were 1.19%, 1.19%, 1.13%, and 1.18% respectively, with changes of 4BP, 5BP, 1BP, and 5BP compared to May 9th [48]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - This week, the main buyers in the cash bond market were rural commercial banks, with a net purchase of 154 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week; the main sellers were securities companies, with a net sale of 250.5 billion yuan, an increase compared to the previous week [3][50]. - This week, funds had a net purchase of 63.9 billion yuan in cash bonds, including a reduction of 67.9 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 62.4 billion yuan in credit bonds, an increase of 50.4 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds), and an increase of 18.8 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. By tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly reduced in the 7 - 10 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the less - than - 1 - year range [50]. - This week, wealth management products had a net purchase of 111.1 billion yuan in cash bonds, including an increase of 16.5 billion yuan in interest - rate bonds, an increase of 13.3 billion yuan in credit bonds, a reduction of 1.3 billion yuan in other (including Tier 2 capital bonds and perpetual bonds), and an increase of 82.4 billion yuan in certificates of deposit. By tenor, interest - rate bonds were mainly increased in the 20 - 30 - year range, and credit bonds were mainly increased in the less - than - 1 - year range [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has shown better performance than the market, with a year-to-date increase of 5.1%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 4.7 percentage points [19] - Recent easing of US-China tariff policies has boosted global economic confidence, leading to a recovery in chemical product demand and prices [32] - Key projects in leading companies are gradually coming online, which is expected to restore valuation expectations [33] - The capital expenditure in the chemical industry has shown a downward trend, confirming the turning point in the capacity cycle [34] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Policy initiatives are expected to improve supply-demand dynamics, creating investment opportunities in the chemical sector [16] - Core assets are entering a long-term value zone, with potential for valuation and profit recovery [16] - Supply constraints in certain sectors are likely to lead to price elasticity and performance improvements for specific companies [17] - Demand certainty is expected to rise in sectors like civil explosives and modified plastics, which are poised for growth [18] 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.8% during the week, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [19] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 5.1%, significantly outperforming the broader market indices [19] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 303 stocks rose while 110 fell during the week [27] - The top ten performing stocks included Yushansha A (+50.6%) and Jitai Co. (+47.1%) [27] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - Recent US-China tariff adjustments are seen as a potential best configuration window for leading chemical companies [31] - The easing of tariffs is expected to stimulate export demand and improve the pricing environment for various chemical products [32] - Major projects from leading companies are expected to come online, enhancing their market positions [33]