Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising and a favorable long-term outlook. The gold-silver ratio has reached a peak of over 100 this year, and as gold prices stabilize, silver prices are expected to rise to restore the ratio [5]. - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, driven by significant infrastructure projects, such as the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower project, which is expected to boost overall demand and support metal prices [5]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle and domestic monetary policies strengthen [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased by 0.26% and silver by 2.24% in the week of July 21-25, 2025. The gold-silver ratio has decreased to 86.13, indicating potential for silver price increases [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have increased by 1.8%, 1.7%, 0.7%, 3.4%, 3.7%, and 3.7% respectively. The overall demand is expected to rise due to major infrastructure projects [5][28]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide have increased by 7.5% weekly, with a year-on-year increase of 41.3%. Tungsten prices have also risen significantly, indicating a recovery in manufacturing demand [5][30][32]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices have risen by 10.5% weekly, while cobalt prices remain stable. Nickel prices have also increased, reflecting growing demand in the energy sector [5][35]. 2. Market Data - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 6.70% increase, with specific segments like industrial metals and energy metals rising by 4.72% and 12.40% respectively during the week [36]. 3. Important Events Review - Notable events include President Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve, where discussions on interest rates took place, indicating potential future monetary policy changes that could impact the metals market [43].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision Insights - The market anticipates a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates during the July meeting[3] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Federal Reserve has kept rates unchanged due to mixed economic data and tariff concerns[3] - President Trump has increased pressure on the Federal Reserve for rate cuts, indicating a strong desire for lower rates[3] Group 2: Future Rate Cut Conditions - The upcoming meeting may clarify conditions for potential rate cuts, with Powell likely to outline specific criteria[3] - Three scenarios are considered for Powell's communication: maintaining ambiguity, indicating a possible September cut, or outlining conditions for future cuts[3] - The likelihood of maintaining a vague stance is deemed low due to increasing pressure from Trump and potential market volatility[3] Group 3: Market Volatility and Risks - The FOMC meeting precedes significant earnings reports from major tech companies and ongoing US-China trade talks, which may heighten market volatility[3] - Risks include unexpected inflation rebounds, weaker global economic conditions, and geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market fluctuations[6]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed results last week, with major US indices rising collectively, while the German DAX index experienced a slight pullback[3] - The UK FTSE 100 and French CAC40 indices increased, while the Taiwan Weighted Index and India's SENSEX30 saw declines[3] Economic Negotiations - Key economic negotiations between China, the US, and Europe are set to progress next week, with significant meetings scheduled between leaders[3] - Trump indicated a 50% chance of a US-EU agreement, while the US expressed optimism regarding US-China talks[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting is low, but pressure is mounting on the Fed from Trump, who highlighted a $3.1 billion budget overrun on Fed renovations[3] - The FOMC's outlook on future rate cuts is expected to change significantly, influenced by recent economic data and ongoing trade negotiations[3] Investment Strategy - Increased market volatility is anticipated, with a focus on sectors showing high growth potential, such as nuclear power and AI[3] - The upcoming FOMC meeting and corporate earnings reports are likely to contribute to market fluctuations, particularly in the tech and consumer sectors[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected inflation rebounds in overseas markets, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in AI infrastructure, particularly with the introduction of the CloudMatrix384 system, which marks a transition from "catching up" to "leading" in AI capabilities [10] - The global AI server market is expected to reach $298 billion by 2025, accounting for over 70% of the total server market, indicating a robust growth trajectory and increasing opportunities for domestic alternatives [11] - The report emphasizes the collaborative effects within the industry, suggesting that core suppliers are likely to experience performance elasticity due to rising demand for supporting equipment [12] Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Technological breakthroughs are reshaping the AI computing landscape, with the CloudMatrix384 system setting a new industry benchmark [10] - The global AI server market is poised for explosive growth, with significant domestic replacement opportunities emerging [11] - The synergy within the supply chain is becoming more pronounced, leading to enhanced performance for key suppliers [12] Industry News - Major overseas companies continue to demand AI computing power, sustaining a high level of industry prosperity [13] - The U.S. has released a national AI strategy aimed at establishing dominance in the global AI landscape through innovation, infrastructure, and geopolitical positioning [14] - China Mobile's AI model has achieved top rankings in international assessments, showcasing advancements in human-computer interaction technology [16] - The acceleration of satellite internet construction is indicated by a recent tender for rocket launch services worth 1.336 billion yuan [17] Weekly Review and Focus - The telecommunications sector experienced a slight decline of 0.47% this week, underperforming compared to major indices [18] - Key stocks to watch include those in the AIDC and related supply chains, as well as long-term focus on major telecom operators and infrastructure providers [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the "anti-involution" expectations are strengthening, suggesting attention to five major investment themes: 1. Polyester filament: The industry is expected to see a recovery in prosperity due to a high-quality development initiative and price increases driven by raw material costs and downstream recovery [5]. 2. MDI: The MDI market is characterized by high technical and capital barriers, with a concentrated competitive landscape. The report anticipates a shift in supply focus towards China due to aging overseas facilities [5]. 3. Industrial silicon and organic silicon: The report notes a potential improvement in supply-demand dynamics for industrial silicon, while organic silicon may see coordinated production cuts as a new norm [5]. 4. Polyester bottle chips: A significant portion of the industry is expected to undergo production cuts, which may lead to a recovery in industry profits [5]. 5. Sucralose: The report highlights a collaborative pricing strategy among leading companies, which is expected to support price increases in the coming periods [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 4%, ranking 8th among 31 industry sectors [6][18]. Key News and Company Announcements - The report discusses the launch of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, which is expected to significantly boost demand for chemical materials [6][31]. Product Price Changes - The report lists the top price increases for chemical products, including lithium carbonate and DMC, while also noting significant declines in products like hydrochloric acid [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core assets that have entered a long-term value zone, as well as industries facing supply constraints that may see price elasticity [7][15][16].

Macro Insights - The "anti-involution" trend is reshaping industrial dynamics, with potential price recoveries in high-end manufacturing sectors[2] - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project (Yaxia Project) has a total investment of CNY 1.2 trillion, approximately 5.8 times the Three Gorges Project's investment[19] - The Shanghai Composite Index has historically shown a positive trend after surpassing 3600 points, with average one-month gains of 12.6%, 17.7%, and 3.5% in previous instances[23] Domestic Demand - The Yaxia Project's investment is expected to contribute positively to domestic demand, with an estimated annual input of CNY 800 billion, accounting for 0.32% of the projected CNY 24.86 trillion infrastructure investment in 2024[19] - The project is anticipated to boost equipment procurement and construction output in related industries, with long-term benefits in clean energy and smart shipping[20] Consumer Sector - In June, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached CNY 42,287 billion, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 6.4% in May[36] - Restaurant revenue growth slowed significantly to 0.9%, marking the lowest monthly growth rate in 2023, influenced by stricter spending regulations[36] High-End Manufacturing - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing slight price increases due to supply-side reforms, with potential for further price growth in the future[2] - The excavator sector is showing signs of mild recovery, although overall demand remains subdued due to low downstream industry activity[2] Risks - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, competitive market pressures, and slower-than-expected product innovation[2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the potential reopening of the market for the herbicide glyphosate in the U.S. following the EPA's proposal to approve three glyphosate-containing products, which is expected to drive new demand [4][5] - Glyphosate's demand is anticipated to grow due to the elimination of high-toxicity pesticides and the promotion of glyphosate-resistant crops, particularly in the U.S. market [5] - The report suggests that glyphosate's price has reached a historical low, indicating significant potential for price increases in the future [5] Market Performance - The report provides a market performance comparison, indicating a decline of 17% for the basic chemical sector compared to the CSI 300 index [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is concentrated, with major producers like BASF and domestic companies in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces [5] - The report notes that the demand for glyphosate is expected to benefit from the promotion of glyphosate-resistant crop seeds [5] Price Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the future price increase potential for glyphosate, with current prices at approximately 54,000 yuan per ton, significantly lower than the peak price of 145,000 yuan per ton in 2014, suggesting a potential increase of about 169% [5] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends关注标的: Yangnong Chemical, Changqing Co., Zhongnong United, and Runfeng Co. as potential investment opportunities in the glyphosate market [5]

Supply Perspective - The peak of "absolute increment" in China's real estate supply has passed, transitioning from an expansion phase to a stock phase[3] - The average number of residential units per household reached 0.70 for commercial housing and 1.17 for residential housing by 2023, indicating a shift towards quality and spaciousness in housing[14] - The per capita new housing starts per thousand people dropped to approximately 4.9 in 2023 and is expected to decline further to 3.8 in 2024, reflecting a rationalization of new supply[25] Demand Perspective - Urbanization has driven significant housing demand, with the urbanization rate reaching about 64.6% in 2023, indicating potential for further growth[36] - The age group of 25-44 years, which constitutes the main purchasing demographic, has seen a decline in its proportion of the total population from 34.4% in 2003 to 28.2% in 2023[38] - The proportion of the population aged 65 and above has increased from 8.4% in 2003 to 15.4% in 2023, indicating a rising demand for elderly housing solutions[38] Investment Opportunities - Despite a pessimistic narrative surrounding the real estate market, there are structural opportunities driven by urbanization, aging population, and a shift towards quality housing[3] - The demand for high-quality housing is increasing, with a notable preference for "good houses" across various buyer demographics[3] Risks - Potential data discrepancies and changes in policy environments could impact market dynamics[4] - External economic factors and systemic risks within the financial system remain critical considerations for the real estate market[3]

Global Market Performance - The global stock market showed mixed results last week, with the US indices displaying divergence; the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose while the Dow Jones experienced a slight pullback [3] - In Europe, the FTSE 100 and DAX indices increased, whereas the CAC40 index saw a minor decline [3] - The Asia-Pacific region also had mixed results, with the SENSEX30 index in India retreating [3] Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate increase, with a month-on-month rise of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, marking a four-month high [3] - Core CPI rose by 0.23% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, slightly below expectations [3] - The impact of tariffs on specific product categories is becoming more pronounced, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [3] Stablecoin Legislation - On July 17, the US Congress passed three significant bills regarding stablecoin regulation, which were signed into law by President Trump [4] - The GENIUS Act mandates that stablecoin issuers must hold reserves in a 1:1 ratio with US dollars, enhancing the security of funds held by users [4] - The CLARITY Act delineates the regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, establishing a framework for digital assets linked to blockchain technology [6] - The Anti-CBDC Surveillance Act prohibits the Federal Reserve from issuing retail central bank digital currency without explicit Congressional authorization, ensuring that the future of digital dollars remains in the private sector [7] Market Implications of Legislation - The passage of these bills is expected to create a new dominance in the digital finance sector, reinforcing the US's position in the global cryptocurrency market [8] - By binding stablecoins closely to the US dollar, the legislation aims to strengthen the dollar's role in the international monetary system [8] - The demand for US Treasury bonds may diversify as stablecoin issuers are likely to purchase them, alleviating selling pressure and potentially lowering government borrowing costs [8] Market Strategy - Following recent highs in the US stock market, caution is advised due to potential volatility stemming from ongoing tariff negotiations and changing interest rate expectations [3] - The report suggests focusing on high-certainty interest rate trades and sectors with strong growth potential, such as nuclear power and semiconductors, as a strategy to navigate increased market fluctuations [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising and a favorable long-term outlook. The gold-silver ratio has reached a peak of over 100 this year, and as gold prices stabilize, silver prices are expected to rise to restore the ratio [5] - Industrial metal prices are experiencing fluctuations, with recent price changes for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel showing slight declines. A significant infrastructure project in Tibet is anticipated to boost overall demand and support metal prices [5] - Small metals like praseodymium-neodymium oxides and tungsten concentrate prices are on the rise, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand [5] - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are seeing price increases, with a focus on future demand growth [5] - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly precious metals, with specific stock recommendations including Shandong Gold, Chifeng Gold, and Zijin Mining [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased by 0.5% and silver by 2.84% in the week of July 14-18, 2025. The year-to-date performance shows a consistent rise in gold prices, positively impacting the gold-silver ratio [5][6] 1.2 Industrial Metals - Recent price changes for industrial metals include copper at 78,410 CNY/ton (-0.2%), aluminum at 20,510 CNY/ton (-0.9%), and lead at 16,820 CNY/ton (-2.4%). The overall market is influenced by a major hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion CNY [5][27] 1.3 Small Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides have increased by 5.5% week-on-week, while tungsten concentrate prices have also risen, indicating a recovery in demand for manufacturing tools [5][29] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium concentrate prices have risen, with lithium hydroxide (industrial grade) priced at 52,900 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.1% increase. Cobalt products are also seeing price increases, indicating a growing demand in the energy sector [5][35] 2. Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.69%, while the non-ferrous metal sector increased by 1.82%. Specific segments such as precious metals and small metals saw gains of 1.61% and 4.45%, respectively [36] 3. Important Events Review - The opening ceremony for the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project took place on July 19, 2025, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion CNY, expected to stimulate demand for metals [43]