Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beverage (02460.HK) [1] Core Views - China Resources Beverage has established itself as the second-largest packaged water company and the largest drinking purified water company in China, with market shares of 18.4% and 32.7% respectively in 2023 [4][16] - The company is expanding its beverage categories, achieving significant market shares in tea, juice, and coffee beverages, and is progressing towards a multi-category development strategy [4][16] - The report anticipates revenue growth driven by increased self-production rates and a reduction in service fees, alongside national expansion and the development of the beverage segment [4][22] Company Overview - China Resources Beverage has been deeply involved in the water beverage industry for decades, gradually expanding its beverage categories [4][13] - The company has a clear and stable shareholding structure, with its controlling shareholder, China Resources Group, being a state-owned diversified holding enterprise [4][17] - The management team has extensive industry experience, which aids in the execution of strategic initiatives [4][19] Packaging Water Market - The packaging water industry is experiencing stable growth, driven by increasing health awareness and demand for bottled water [4][30] - The market size for packaged water in China grew from 152.6 billion to 215 billion yuan from 2018 to 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.1% [4][34] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a stable oligopoly, with China Resources Beverage holding a significant market share in the purified water segment [4][31] Financial Analysis - The company's revenue increased from 113.4 billion yuan in 2021 to 135.15 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 9.2% [4][22] - The beverage segment has shown remarkable growth, with revenues rising from 5.22 billion yuan in 2021 to 10.68 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 43% [4][22] - The report projects revenues of 143.3 billion, 154.2 billion, and 167 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 16.2 billion, 19.9 billion, and 23.2 billion yuan [4][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company has exceeded market expectations with a projected net profit growth of 236%-260% for 2024, reaching approximately 1.4-1.5 billion [9] - The growth is attributed to enhanced brand strength, significant revenue increases from existing stores, continuous product optimization, and the opening of new stores [9] - The company is expanding its presence in the mainland China market, with plans to increase the number of stores to 50-60 [10][26] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown significant absolute and relative growth over the past months, with a 57.52% increase over 1 month and 169.14% over 3 months [5] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been revised upwards to 85.32 billion, 142.98 billion, and 198.49 billion respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to 14.61 billion, 25.01 billion, and 35.16 billion [40] Consumer Trends - The report highlights a shift in consumer behavior towards valuing preservation of wealth, with high-net-worth individuals increasingly purchasing second-hand luxury goods [14][15] - The company is well-positioned to capture this demand as gold becomes a preferred investment choice over diamonds [14] Product Strategy - The company has a strong product design capability, integrating traditional cultural elements into new offerings, which enhances its competitive edge [22] - Pricing strategy involves a fixed price model with periodic increases, creating a perception of value retention among consumers [23] Market Expansion - The company has established a presence in key cities in mainland China and is planning further expansion, with a current total of 33 stores [26] - Internationally, the company is set to open its first store in Singapore, marking its entry into Southeast Asia [36] Brand Development - The company is leveraging social media platforms to enhance brand visibility and attract a broader customer base, with a current membership of 275,000 [15][19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights the improvement in liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, suggesting a focus on undervalued small-cap biotech stocks, with several stocks having increased over 50% year-to-date [6][9]. - Key companies to watch include Genscript Biotech, HAPO, and HUYU Pharmaceuticals, among others, due to their promising pipelines and market potential [6][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Focus on Small-Cap Biotech Stocks - The report emphasizes the recovery of liquidity in the Hong Kong market, leading to strong performance in small-cap biotech stocks, with many showing over 50% gains this year [6][9]. - Suggested companies for investment include Genscript Biotech, HAPO, HUYU Pharmaceuticals, and others due to their low price-to-book (PB) ratios [6][9]. 1.1. Genscript Biotech - Genscript's ASC30, a GLP-1 receptor agonist for obesity, has shown promising interim results in a Phase Ib trial, with weight reductions of 4.3% and 6.3% in different cohorts [11][12]. - ASC30 is noted for its unique dosing options, potentially positioning it as a best-in-class treatment [12]. 1.2. HAPO Pharmaceuticals - HAPO has a robust innovation platform with multiple potential products in development, including a licensing agreement that could yield up to $970 million in payments [15][19]. - The company is also collaborating with AI-driven platforms to enhance drug development processes [19][20]. 1.3. HUYU Pharmaceuticals - HUYU's Irpagatinib has entered registration clinical trials for liver cancer, with expectations to turn profitable in 2024, projecting revenues of approximately RMB 504 million [21][27]. - The company is focusing on innovative treatments for cancer, particularly targeting FGF19 overexpression in liver cancer patients [23][25]. 1.4. DEQI Pharmaceuticals - DEQI's new indication for its drug has been included in the national medical insurance directory, enhancing its market access [28]. - The company plans to invest in AI capabilities to accelerate drug development, leveraging its existing resources and partnerships [31]. 2. Market Performance Review - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector index rose by 1.88% from February 17 to February 21, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.87% [32]. - Year-to-date, the sector index has increased by 3.93%, again surpassing the CSI 300 index [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by the expectation of a Fed rate cut and supportive domestic monetary and fiscal policies. Precious metals are anticipated to experience a long-term bull market, with domestic demand-related varieties expected to show greater elasticity [9]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a performance of -15% to +29% over the specified periods, compared to the CSI 300 index [3]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold prices have decreased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 closing at 683 CNY per gram, reflecting a weekly change of -0.5%. In contrast, the COMEX gold futures price is at 2950 USD per ounce, with a weekly change of +1.9% [16][19]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have declined, with SHFE copper at 77020 CNY per ton, down 1.4% weekly, while LME copper is at 9494 USD per ton, down 3.2% weekly. The report notes a divergence in metal prices, with aluminum prices increasing [36][37][48]. 4. Rare Earths and Tungsten - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have risen, while tungsten concentrate prices have fallen. The report suggests that the recovery in manufacturing may boost tungsten demand in the medium to long term [10]. 5. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, while the report highlights the need to monitor future demand growth for energy metals [10]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies in the precious metals sector such as Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining, as well as industrial metals companies like China Hongqiao and Yunnan Copper [9]. 7. Economic Indicators - The report mentions that the U.S. CPI for January was 3.00% year-on-year, while China's CPI was 0.50% year-on-year, indicating differing inflationary pressures [28]. 8. Supply Chain Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on imports, which may disrupt global supply chains and affect the recovery of the global economy [7]. 9. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the Fed's monetary policy will support the non-ferrous metals sector, with industrial metal prices expected to rebound due to favorable economic policies [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the resilience of the coal and coke-steel sectors, suggesting a positive feedback loop in profitability as demand recovers and macroeconomic expectations improve [4][5] - It emphasizes the potential for price rebounds in coking coal and thermal coal due to supportive macroeconomic policies and demand recovery [4][5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: Thermal coal prices have decreased, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal at 719 RMB/ton, down 22 RMB/ton (-2.97%) [12][14]. Coking coal prices also fell, with the main coking coal at 1430 RMB/ton, down 30 RMB/ton (-2.05%) [18][19]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Rail input to Qinhuangdao port decreased by 5.93%, while port throughput increased by 18.04% [34]. The overall coal inventory at major ports rose by 3.36% [40]. - **International Market**: International coal prices have declined, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal at 77.75 USD/ton, down 1.2 USD/ton (-1.52%) [47][50]. The price gap between domestic and international coal has widened [51]. 2. Market Performance - The coal sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 4.31% compared to a 0.97% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [53]. 3. Recent Important Events - The report notes regulatory developments in Hebei province aimed at enhancing safety in coal mining operations [56]. Additionally, it mentions operational updates from major companies like China Shenhua and Shanxi Coking Coal regarding production and safety compliance [59].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Views - The basic chemical sector is expected to benefit from improving supply-demand dynamics driven by recent policy initiatives aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market [17] - The current investment focus in the chemical industry includes core assets entering a long-term value zone, industries facing supply constraints, sectors with upward demand certainty, and high-dividend resource stocks [18] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.2% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.2% but underperforming the ChiNext Index by 1.8% [21] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has risen by 3.7%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.9% but underperforming the ChiNext Index by 2.8% [21] Key News and Company Announcements - The textile industry has initiated a price increase proposal to stabilize the market [35] - The organic silicon sector is undergoing significant capacity repairs, with 1.82 million tons of capacity currently offline, leading to price increases [35] - The chlorinated sugar industry is strengthening its collaborative efforts, with major companies discussing cost reduction and efficiency improvements [37] Product Price and Spread Analysis - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with R142b rising by 51.5% and R152a by 31.6% [8] - The report also notes price declines in certain products, such as lanthanum coal, which fell by 10.7% [8] Investment Recommendations - Core assets in the chemical sector are seen as entering a long-term value zone, with companies like Baofeng Energy and Wanhua Chemical recommended for attention [18] - Industries with supply constraints, such as vitamins and chlorinated sugar, are expected to see price elasticity and performance improvements [18] - Demand certainty is emphasized in sectors like civil explosives and modified plastics, with companies like Yipuli and Jinfeng Technology highlighted [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the computer industry [3][11]. Core Insights - The DeepSeek series models are driving a pivotal moment in AI applications, significantly reducing the cost and barriers to AI development, which is expected to accelerate innovation across various industries [7]. - Alibaba's cloud revenue reached 31.742 billion yuan in Q3 2025, marking a 13% year-on-year increase, with AI-related product revenue growing for six consecutive quarters [7]. - The report highlights the increasing capital expenditures from major players like Alibaba, which reached 31.8 billion yuan, indicating a strong commitment to cloud and AI infrastructure [7]. - ByteDance and Tencent are rapidly innovating in AI applications, with ByteDance launching over 20 AI applications and Tencent integrating DeepSeek models into its popular WeChat platform [7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The computer industry has shown a significant performance trend compared to the CSI 300 index, with fluctuations observed over the past year [4]. Related Research - The report references several related studies that explore the implications of AI applications and the competitive landscape within the industry [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in various categories, including data centers, domestic computing power, AI applications, and major stakeholders in the industry [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the overall market by more than 10% [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the ongoing negotiations between the US and Russia may lead to a reconstruction demand in Ukraine, estimated at $700 billion, which is expected to boost the demand for copper, aluminum, and steel [5]. - It notes that the reconstruction efforts in Ukraine will significantly increase global steel demand, with China's steel exports projected to rise by 25.21% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 74.66 million tons [5]. - The report anticipates that the easing of trade restrictions on Russia could enhance China's supply of electrolytic aluminum, potentially stabilizing the market [5]. - It emphasizes that the post-war reconstruction in Ukraine will drive up copper demand, with a corresponding increase in copper prices, benefiting Chinese copper manufacturers [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report provides a comparative performance analysis showing a decline of 26% in the non-ferrous metals sector against the CSI 300 index [3]. Related Research - Several related reports are referenced, indicating ongoing trends and market conditions affecting the non-ferrous metals sector, including geopolitical tensions and their impact on metal prices [4]. Investment Recommendations - Specific investment recommendations include: - Copper: Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, with a focus on Yunnan Copper [5]. - Aluminum: Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo Group, China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, and Nanshan Aluminum, with attention to China Aluminum and Jiaozuo Wanfang [5]. - Steel: Recommendations include China Steel International, Baosteel, and Hualing Steel [5].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业深度 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《春潮涌动！关注化工涨价行情》， 2025.2.16 2.《春耕有望提振化肥景气，新政赋 能生物柴油破局》，2025.2.9 3.《春耕来临，关注化肥板块投资机 会》，2025.2.9 4.《扩产周期步入尾声，新领域引领 新需求——有机硅行业深度报告》， 2025.2.7 5.《春节假期国际油价走跌，关注机 器人相关材料应用落地》，2025.2.4 基础化工 2025 年 02 月 20 日 从海外企业财报看未来三年聚氨 酯供需格局 ——聚氨酯行业深度报告 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 引入：MDI 是化工品种技术壁垒最高的产品之一，全球呈现寡头垄断格局，主要产 能和核心技术基本掌握在四家海外 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite pressures, the company has potential for growth through its focus on collagen products, new product launches, and advantages in medical channels [6][41]. - The collagen protein market is still in its growth phase, providing significant opportunities for the company as a market leader [9][30]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a relative increase compared to the Hang Seng Index, with absolute growth rates of 5.37% over one month and 7.46% over two months [4]. Financial Data and Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5.379 billion HKD in 2024 to 8.790 billion HKD in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.88%, 26.65%, and 23.17% respectively [5][41]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 2.060 billion HKD in 2024 to 3.213 billion HKD in 2026, with corresponding growth rates [5][41]. Investment Highlights - The report identifies three key areas of expectation: 1. **Collagen Product Ceiling**: Concerns exist regarding the sales ceiling of the collagen stick product, but the collagen market is still growing, indicating potential for expansion [6][9]. 2. **New Product Pipeline**: The company is expanding its product lineup, with new launches expected to contribute to revenue growth [12][18]. 3. **Medical Aesthetics Market**: The company is well-positioned in the medical aesthetics sector, with recent approvals for new products that could capture significant market share [30][39]. Product Performance - The collagen stick product has achieved significant sales, with projected sales of nearly 2.4 billion HKD in 2024, indicating strong market demand [6][7]. - New products, such as the focus cream, have exceeded expectations in early sales, contributing positively to the overall revenue [18][19]. Competitive Landscape - The report notes that while competition in the collagen market is increasing, the company’s established position and product offerings provide a competitive edge [23][30]. - The medical aesthetics market is characterized by high growth potential, with the company’s recent product approvals enhancing its market position [30][31].