Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminum, which is expected to increase trade tensions and impact market dynamics [5]. - Precious metals are experiencing a surge in demand due to the tariffs, with gold prices reaching historical highs [5]. - Industrial metals are showing price differentiation, with copper prices rising amidst a recovering market sentiment [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 closing at 687 CNY/g, reflecting a weekly change of 2.6% and a yearly change of 43.2% [15]. - **Industrial Metals**: Prices are mixed; SHFE copper rose by 1.1% to 78,090 CNY/ton, while LME copper increased by 5.6% to 9,812 USD/ton [35][37]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum price reached 20,710 CNY/ton, up 0.5%, with LME aluminum at 2,662 USD/ton, up 0.9% [49]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead price decreased by 0.3% to 17,130 CNY/ton, while LME lead fell by 1.5% to 1,951 USD/ton [59]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc price increased by 0.5% to 24,125 CNY/ton, with LME zinc at 2,845 USD/ton, up 1.0% [66]. 2. Market Performance - The report notes a significant increase in copper inventory, with SHFE copper stocks rising by 110.6% [38]. - The report also indicates a mixed performance in the lead market, with a notable increase in lead inventory [60]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, with recommendations for companies such as Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining [5]. - For industrial metals, the report recommends companies like Tianshan Aluminum and China Hongqiao, emphasizing the expected recovery in demand [5].

Group 1: Monetary and Credit Trends - In January, M2 growth rate decreased to 7.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[10] - New M1 growth rate was 0.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points compared to December[26] - Total social financing (社融) reached a historical high of 7.06 trillion yuan, an increase of 586.6 billion yuan year-on-year[17] Group 2: Loan Dynamics - New RMB loans in January amounted to 5.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 210 billion yuan[11] - Corporate loans surged to 4.78 trillion yuan, marking a historical monthly high, with short-term loans increasing by 1.74 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans by 3.46 trillion yuan[13] - Residential loans saw a decrease, with short-term loans down by 497 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 4.935 trillion yuan, but still lower than the previous year[12] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the "weak reality" may be improving, with indicators pointing towards a stabilization of expectations and a potential recovery in economic fundamentals[34] - Key variables to monitor include M1 growth, corporate profitability, and price levels, particularly core CPI trends, which are crucial for assessing policy effectiveness and market performance[20] - The likelihood of further monetary easing remains strong, with a higher feasibility of reserve requirement ratio cuts compared to interest rate reductions in the short term[34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [2]. Core Insights - The AI sector is a core competitive arena between China and the US, with ongoing multi-dimensional competition in policy, technology, and funding. The US currently holds a first-mover advantage, but China is catching up, eliminating the technological gap [5][16]. - DeepSeek's deployment is driving significant demand for computing power across various industries, with a notable increase in commercial applications and cloud service integration [20][21]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - AI is a key competitive field between China and the US, with the US imposing restrictions on high-end chip purchases by China, while China is fostering open collaboration [5][16]. - DeepSeek's optimization reduces the need for high-end chips and promotes the development of smaller models, enhancing edge deployment [17][20]. - The deployment of DeepSeek has led to widespread cloud service integration, establishing a commercial charging model and increasing demand for computing power across various sectors [20][21]. Industry News - DeepSeek has become a focal point for multiple parties, with various cloud providers and government entities successfully deploying or integrating the model [21]. - The 2025 China Artificial Intelligence Computing Power Development Assessment Report predicts that the scale of intelligent computing power will double within two years, reaching 1,037.3 EFLOPS by 2025 [23]. - ByteDance's UltraMem sparse model architecture significantly reduces inference costs by up to 83%, enhancing the feasibility of large model applications [24]. - The successful launch of the low-orbit satellite group for the GW constellation marks a significant step in expanding satellite internet capabilities [25]. Market Review and Focus - The telecommunications sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 3.20% increase in the index, while the AI computing index rose by 12.24% [26][28]. - Key companies to watch include ZTE, Unisoc, and Meig Smart, among others, as they are positioned to benefit from advancements in AI and computing infrastructure [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the retail industry [2] Core Insights - The rise of domestic AI models and supportive policies are expected to drive the "AI + consumption" trend, enhancing efficiency across various sectors [5][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI applications in sectors such as human resources, education, e-commerce, offline retail, beauty, and OTA [5][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The retail sector has shown a performance decline of 26% compared to the CSI 300 index [3] AI Development - Multiple domestic AI models have made significant advancements in early 2025, including the launch of DeepSeek-R1, which has gained substantial user engagement [5][7] - The cost of DeepSeek-R1 API services is significantly lower than that of OpenAI's models, making it an attractive option for businesses [7][9] Policy Support - Recent government initiatives aim to promote "AI + consumption" as a key strategy for boosting economic growth and enhancing consumer experiences [9][10] Sector-Specific Opportunities - **Human Resources**: Companies like Beijing Renli and Keri International are leveraging AI for recruitment efficiency [12][15] - **Education**: Institutions such as Bean Education and Action Education are integrating AI to enhance learning experiences and operational efficiency [12][13] - **E-commerce**: Companies like Focus Technology and Aike Innovation are utilizing AI for product selection and customer service improvements [17][18] - **Offline Retail**: Retailers like IKEA and Kidswant are adopting AI to enhance customer engagement and marketing precision [19][20] - **Beauty**: Brands are employing AI for personalized skincare solutions and product development [20][21] - **OTA**: Travel platforms are implementing AI to optimize customer service and operational efficiency [15][21]

Group 1: Consumption Trends - China is transitioning into a "quality consumption" era, where consumers prioritize product quality over marketing gimmicks[3] - The average ticket price for movies has slightly increased, but the structure of consumption shows significant differentiation, with "Ne Zha" accounting for over 50% of the box office during the Spring Festival[7] - Consumer behavior is categorized into four types: quality consumption, price-performance pursuit, consumption upgrade, and consumption downgrade[3] Group 2: Economic Insights - The logic of supply creating demand is questioned; while Keynesian economics suggests expanding total demand, it can lead to overcapacity risks and inflation[3][51] - Recent data shows a 46% year-on-year increase in Spring Festival box office revenue and a 42% increase in audience numbers[5] - The rise of online review platforms has increased transparency in product quality, reducing trial and error consumption[40] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - To stimulate consumption, both macroeconomic policies and microeconomic incentives for quality supply are necessary[3] - The potential of the Chinese consumer market is vast, and policies should focus on creating more high-quality supply scenarios[3] - The emergence of new consumption trends, such as "first-release economy" and "silver economy," highlights the need for targeted economic strategies[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the entertainment products industry [2][6]. Core Insights - The success of the animated film "Nezha 2" has significantly boosted related merchandise sales, highlighting the high scarcity of quality IP content in the market [6]. - The film has set a record in Chinese cinema, surpassing 9 billion yuan in box office revenue, and has become the highest-grossing animated film globally [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality content and production standards in driving audience engagement and satisfaction [6]. Market Performance - The entertainment products sector has shown a notable performance trend, with a significant increase in sales of related merchandise following the success of "Nezha 2" [3][6]. - The report notes that the Spring Festival box office reached 9.51 billion yuan, with 187 million viewers, marking the highest figures in Chinese history [6]. Product Sales and Trends - Various merchandise categories have seen explosive sales, including toys, food and beverages, daily necessities, and jewelry, all linked to the "Nezha 2" IP [6][7]. - For instance, Pop Mart's "Nezha 2" blind boxes sold over 10 million yuan within eight days, while Mengniu's related products exceeded 5 million yuan in sales [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with rich IP portfolios and differentiated product capabilities, such as Pop Mart and Miniso [6][7]. - It also highlights the potential of traditional retailers transitioning into brand retailers, recommending companies like Miniso and Aiyingshi for their strategic shifts [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Insights - The arrival of spring plowing is expected to boost the fertilizer sector, with specific attention on potassium fertilizers due to rising international demand and tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports from Canada [5]. - The phosphate fertilizer market is supported by declining domestic mining grades and increasing demand from downstream sectors, particularly lithium iron phosphate [5]. - The compound fertilizer sector is witnessing a rise in market concentration, benefiting from price increases in raw materials [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights - Spring plowing is anticipated to enhance fertilizer market conditions, particularly for potassium fertilizers, with U.S. tariffs likely driving prices up [5]. - Phosphate prices are supported by a tight supply-demand balance, with domestic mining challenges and rising demand from new applications [5]. - The compound fertilizer market is seeing increased concentration, with a growing share of usage and price support from raw material costs [5]. 2. Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index rose by 1.6% during the week, aligning with the Shanghai Composite Index, while underperforming the ChiNext Index by 3.8 percentage points [21]. - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 1.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.5 percentage points [21]. 3. Individual Stock Performance - Among 426 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 345 stocks rose, with notable gainers including航锦科技 (+33.1%) and 东方材料 (+33.1%) [29]. - Conversely, stocks like 兴业股份 (-14.9%) and 金奥博 (-9.1%) experienced significant declines [29]. 4. Key News and Company Announcements - The State Council issued guidelines to promote high-quality development in refined oil circulation, which is expected to benefit the biodiesel sector [7]. - The report highlights the potential for biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to achieve commercial breakthroughs due to supportive policies [7]. 5. Product Price and Spread Analysis - As of February 8, prices for potassium chloride, monoammonium phosphate, and compound fertilizers were reported at 2664, 2988, and 2320 CNY per ton, respectively, with varying weekly and monthly changes [6]. - The report notes that the price of potassium fertilizers is likely to rise due to tariff impacts and supply constraints [5].

煤炭 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 4.《煤炭行业点评：中长期资金入 市方案发布，持续看好红利价值》， 2025.1.23 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 煤炭开采 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：政策再加码，持续 关注红利投资机会》，2025.1.25 2.《煤炭行业基金持仓分析：低配 幅 度 收 窄 ， 红 利 价 值 凸 显 》， 2025.1.25 3.《煤焦钢春季策略：需求望复 苏，下游看弹性，上游看红利》， 2025.1.23 5.《煤炭周报：静待需求发力，春 季行情可期》，2025.1.19 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 2025 年 02 月 09 日 煤炭周报：对美煤炭加征关税支 撑煤价，持续看好煤焦钢春季行 情 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 第八轮提 ...

文娱用品 2025 年 02 月 08 日 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 文娱用品 证券分析师 易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 万代南梦宫业绩超预期的启示： IP 产业星辰大海 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 优于大市（维持） 市场表现 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 37% 49% 61% 73% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 文娱用品 沪深300 易丁依，上海财经大学金融硕士，21 年 6 月加入德邦证券，负责医美、化妆品领域研究，把握颜值经济行业趋势、分析用户画像、研 究终端产品、高频跟踪渠道动销，深挖公司基本面型选手，挖掘胶原蛋白等前沿细分市场。 分析师声明 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 事件：万代南梦宫发布业绩预告，相比彭博一致预期超预期：2025 财年 Q3，公司 实现营收 3442.7 亿日元/+27.49%，高于彭博一致预期 3121.3 亿日元，归母净利 润 479.7 亿日元/+482.8%，归母净利率 13 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 通信 2025 年 02 月 08 日 通信 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -11% 0% 11% 22% 33% 44% 55% 66% 2024-02 2024-06 2024-10 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《DeepSeek，中国算力模式胜出 的加速器》，2025.2.5 2.《AI 基础设施助推"玩具场景"， C 端应用或将放量》，2025.1.25 3.《台积电入场，光引擎进入芯片时 代？》，2025.1.22 4.《"AI+"推动 capex 增加，算力基 础设施和端侧应用受益》，2025.1.18 5.《市场波动，新型数据基础设施加 力》，2025.1.11 DeepSeek 快速渗透，商业模式优势 加速基础设施爆发 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 1. 投资策略 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 1.1 DeepSeek 或动摇高端算力卡地位，国产算力链迎来机会。DeepSe ...