Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to benefit from improving macroeconomic conditions and policy support, leading to a potential rebound in coal prices and overall profitability within the coal-coke-steel supply chain [4][6] - The report highlights the resilience of non-electric demand for coal and anticipates a U-shaped price trend for thermal coal in 2025, driven by limited production growth and recovering demand [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Analysis**: The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal is reported at 688 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous week, while Q5000 coal increased by 1.2% to 601 CNY/ton [12][19] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Rail input to Qinhuangdao port decreased by 9.03% to 423,000 tons, and port throughput fell by 30.08% to the same amount [36] - **Inventory Analysis**: Qinhuangdao's coal inventory increased by 10.47% to 7.49 million tons, while key power plant inventories decreased by 3.48% [44][48] - **International Coal Market**: International coal prices have seen declines, with Newcastle FOB thermal coal at 75 USD/ton, down 1.32% [52][54] 2. Market Performance - The coal sector's performance has lagged behind the broader market, with a 0.45% increase compared to a 1.56% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [57][60] 3. Important Events Review - The report notes significant developments in the coal industry, including a 5.4% year-on-year increase in Inner Mongolia's coal production, positioning it as the leading coal-producing region in China [63] - China’s coal imports for January-February 2025 totaled 76.12 million tons, reflecting a 2.1% increase year-on-year [63][64]

Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed results last week, with the Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng Index leading gains globally[4] - US stock indices experienced a pullback, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq down by -2.4%, -3.1%, and -3.5% respectively[4] - European markets displayed varied performance, with Germany's DAX and France's CAC40 up by 2.0% and 0.1%, while the UK's FTSE 100 saw a slight decline[4] Economic Indicators - US non-farm payrolls increased by 151,000 in February, below the market expectation of 160,000[4] - The ADP employment number for February unexpectedly dropped to 77,000, significantly lower than the expected 140,000 and previous value of 183,000[4] - The Challenger job cuts in February surged to 172,017, a 245% increase from the previous month's 49,795[4] Consumer Confidence - Both the Conference Board and University of Michigan consumer confidence indices showed significant declines, indicating weakening consumer expectations[4] - Upcoming retail sales data for February is expected to be pessimistic due to the downturn in consumer sentiment[4] Geopolitical Factors - The decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative is attributed to changes in economic, technological, and geopolitical landscapes[4] - The ongoing Ukraine situation has highlighted the US's isolationist tendencies, impacting its global influence and the perception of "American exceptionalism"[4] Investment Strategy - Recommendations include focusing on the Japanese stock market, European equities, small-cap growth stocks in the US, and broad opportunities in emerging markets[4] - The duration of the decline in US dollar assets is closely tied to geopolitical developments in Ukraine and the decisions of President Zelensky[4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, global economic downturns, and escalations in geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from a favorable economic environment, with a focus on both precious and industrial metals. The anticipated economic recovery and policy support are likely to drive demand and prices upward [7][8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a significant performance compared to the CSI 300 index, with fluctuations noted in the market [3]. Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 closing at 679 CNY per gram, reflecting a weekly change of 1.3% and an annual change of 34.5% [14]. - COMEX gold futures closed at 2918 USD per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.8% [14]. - Silver prices also rose, with COMEX silver at 32.9 USD per ounce, showing a weekly change of 3.8% [16]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates a rise in industrial metal prices, with SHFE copper prices increasing by 1.9% to 78320 CNY per ton, and LME copper prices rising by 3.2% to 9664 USD per ton [35]. - Aluminum prices have also seen an increase, with SHFE aluminum at 20835 CNY per ton, reflecting a weekly change of 0.9% [50]. - Nickel prices rose by 2.3%, with SHFE nickel at 129550 CNY per ton [37]. Rare Earths and Tungsten - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have decreased, while tungsten concentrate prices have also seen a decline [8]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have stabilized, while cobalt prices have increased, indicating a mixed outlook for energy metals [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zhongjin Lingnan, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium for potential investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector [6][7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Recent supply disruptions in small pesticide varieties due to uncontrollable factors have led to potential price increases as spring demand approaches [4] - The supply chain for key intermediates like chlorpyrifos is facing challenges, which, combined with seasonal demand, is expected to drive prices up for products like chlorpyrifos and glyphosate [6] - The report highlights specific companies to watch, including Lier Chemical, Fengshan Group, and Xinong Co., which are positioned to benefit from these market dynamics [6] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical sector has shown a performance trend with a range from -22% to +22% over the specified periods [3] Key Events - Supply-side disruptions have been noted, such as the shutdown of chloracetyl chloride production in Shandong and the cessation of 10,000 tons of acetamiprid capacity in Ningxia [4] Price Trends - Prices for chlorpyrifos are currently low, with a historical percentile of 27.7%, indicating significant potential for price increases [6] - Acetamiprid prices have shown a week-on-week increase of 3.13% and a month-on-month increase of 13.01%, with current prices at 82,500 CNY/ton [6] - The report indicates that the prices for abamectin and methomyl are also on the rise due to limited supply and strong demand, with current prices at 490,000 CNY/ton and 680,000 CNY/ton respectively [6] Recommended Companies - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Lier Chemical, Fengshan Group, Xinong Co., and others for potential investment opportunities based on the outlined market conditions [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the telecommunications industry [2]. Core Insights - The government is increasing investment in information technology, focusing on AI and specialized industries [4]. - AI is expected to continue empowering various sectors, with a shift towards embodied intelligence that emphasizes interaction between AI and the physical environment [7][20]. - The demand for inference capabilities is expected to grow, leading to significant opportunities in AIDC (AI Data Center) construction [21]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - AI will continue to empower various industries, with a focus on embodied intelligence and the need for smaller models to match edge computing capabilities [7][20]. - The release of new models like QwQ-32B shows competitive performance, indicating a growing market for inference capabilities [21]. - The government is set to increase defense spending, with a budget of 1.69 trillion yuan for 2024 and 1.78 trillion yuan for 2025, indicating potential investment opportunities in defense-related information technology [24]. Industry News - The government report emphasizes the expansion of 5G applications and the growth of the digital economy, with a target of 10% of GDP from core digital industries [25]. - At the Barcelona exhibition, AI's integration into telecommunications was highlighted, with companies like Huawei and ZTE showcasing AI-centric solutions [27]. - A collaboration between the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology and GSMA aims to establish a global computing resource interconnection framework [28]. - The launch of the QwQ-32B model by Alibaba demonstrates advancements in AI capabilities, benefiting the AI chip and AIDC sectors [29]. - The bidding for satellite broadband terminals indicates progress in satellite network construction, with several contracts awarded [31]. Market Review and Focus - The telecommunications sector saw a 2.51% increase this week, outperforming major indices, with a focus on AI, embodied intelligence, and specialized industry information technology [32][33]. - Key companies to watch include China Mobile, China Telecom, and ZTE, among others, for their roles in advancing AI and telecommunications [32].

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 03 月 08 日 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 扰动增多，估值影响放大 ——2025 年 2 月外汇储备数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：截止 2 月底，中国外汇储备 32272.24 亿美元，环比增加 181.9 亿美 元。2 月美债长端收益率下行，估值效应带来外储增加；外资或增配中国资产，带 来增量外汇资金；交易因素或继续导致外储增值。向前看，外储方面，预计短期估 值效应对外储的扰动放大，交易因素可能仍造成一定外储减值压力；汇率方面，强 美元或在降温，但人民币汇率指数下行导致人民币汇率仍可能阶段性承压；央行货 币政策方面，政府工作报告和潘行长表述积极，宽货币窗口或将至，我们认为，在 宽货币的基础上，或需积极探索更有效的工具，全方位扩大投融资需求。 估值效应或是 2 月外储增加主因：从外储变化的各因素来看，估 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 3 月 8 日 宏观点评 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 美国经济衰退预期或加码 ——2025 年 2 月美国劳工数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：25 年 2 月，美国就业数据整体表现不佳，或将进一步催化美国经济衰 退预期的提升。其中，二月非农新增就业人数为 15.1 万人，低于预期，预期中值 为 16.0 万人，前值从增 14.3 万人向下修正至增 12.5 万人。失业率方面，二月， 美国失业率回踩至 4.1%，预期中值为 4.0%。市场方面，在就业数据发布当天，美 股三大指数均小幅回升，道琼斯指数上涨 0.52%，纳斯达克指数上涨 0.70%，标 普 500 指数上涨 0.55%。 机构调查数据：2 月新增非农就业人数涨势有所回升，但仍不及预期。 25 年 2 月，美国非农新增就业人数录得 15.1 万人，低于预期中值的 16.0 万人， 略低于过去 12 个月的月平均涨幅 16.8 万人。分行业来看，教育和保健服务、金融 活动、 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题 稳定预期，激发活力 ——政府工作报告的八点学习体会 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 2025 年 03 月 07 日 宏观专题 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 连桐杉 邮箱：liants＠tebon.com.cn 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 核心观点：3 月 5 日，2025 年政府工作报告正式公布，2025 年是十四五规划最后 一年，为圆满收官"十四五"，并为"十五五"的良好开局打牢基础，本次政府工 作报告定调积极，结合短期内外部的风险和中期经济挑战，进行了针对性的政策和 改革部署，我们认为，以下是本次会议着重需要关注的四个方面： 一是政策基调强调稳定预期、激发活力，首先，宏观政策要结合形势动态调整，当 前的政策安排依旧为未来留用空 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 通信 通信 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 李宏涛 资格编号：S0120524070003 邮箱：liht＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 34% 43% 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 通信 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《DeepSeek 开源的杀伤力》， 2025.3.1 2.《IDC 行业深度：DeepSeek 加速 国产算力链形成闭环，价值网络有 望井喷》，2025.2.25 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 03 月 06 日 事件：2025 年 3 月 5 日，2025 年《政府工作报告》提出要建立未来产业投入增长 机制，培育生物制造、量子科技、具身智能、6G 等未来产业。 从 AI+到具身智能，AI 持续赋能千行百业。人工智能+首次写入 2024 年政府工作 报告。截至目前，人工智能产业持续发展，融合千行百业取得长足进步：1、大模 型涌现。根据国家互联网信息办公室数据，截至 2 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观周报 2025 年 3 月 3 日 [Table_Main] 宏观周报 证券分析师 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy@tebon.com.cn 连桐杉 邮箱：liants＠tebon.com.cn 本周看什么？俄乌冲突进展、AI+ --宏观周报（20250224-20250302） [Table_Summary] 摘要： 核心观点：本周聚焦两个方向，其一，俄乌问题和平解决仍面临挑战。其二，抢抓 人工智能发展的历史性机遇，"人工智能+"建设浪潮将至。 高频宏观数据：高频数据映射的行业来看，建筑建材和石油化工行业景气度待修 复。 短期投资建议：债市关注两会政策；股市关注海外扰动下市场情绪的修复以及国内 政策预期的发酵。 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 热点观察 1：俄乌问题和平解决或仍面临挑战。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和乌克兰 总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基星期五(2 月 28 日)在白宫会面演变成一场就乌克兰战 争的激烈争吵。其主要是由于 ...