[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 煤炭开采 2024 年 12 月 19 日 | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------------| | | | | | | | 煤炭开采 | 煤炭行业点评：政策支持力度提 | | | | | 优于大市（维持） | 升，红利价值持续显现 | 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 31% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 煤炭开采 沪深300 相关研究 1.《永泰能源（600157.SH）：上调回 购 价 格 上 限 ， 投 资 价 值 凸 显 》， 2024.12.18 2.《淮北矿业(600985.SH)：股东增持 彰显信心，未来成长空间广阔》， 2024.12.17 3.《煤炭月报：供给延续回升，非电 需求边际改善》，2024.12.17 4.《煤炭周报：政策托底内需，坚定 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 永泰能源(600157.SH) 2024 年 12 月 18 日 相关研究 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|----------------------------| | 买入（维持） 永泰能源（ | 600157.SH ）：上调 | | 所属行业：煤炭 / 煤炭开采 当前价格 ( 元 ) ： 1.81 | 回购价格上限，投资价值凸显 | | 证券分析师 | | | 翟堃 | | | | | 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -14% 0% 14% 29% 43% 57% 永泰能源 沪深300 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|----------------|--------------|-------| | 2023-12 \n沪深 ...

Industry Investment Rating - Outperform (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The communication industry is experiencing comprehensive acceleration with the relay of Yuanxin and Starnet, leading to a significant boost in internet development [2] - China's large constellation systems are progressing rapidly, with both low-orbit and high-orbit satellite internet constellations entering the deployment phase [4] - Commercial aerospace infrastructure and rocket capabilities are improving, with low-cost launch era approaching [4] - Mobile phone direct-to-satellite services are advancing, with China's low-orbit satellite direct connection expected soon [4][6] Market Performance - Communication industry performance shows a significant upward trend, with a notable increase from -29% to 39% between December 2023 and August 2024 [3] Satellite Internet Development - China's satellite internet is entering a large-scale construction phase, with Yuanxin's "Qianfan Constellation" and Starnet's low-orbit satellites being deployed [4] - As of November 2024, SpaceX has launched 7324 satellites, while China has over 900 satellites in orbit [4] - Yuanxin Satellite Technology has signed a memorandum with Brazil's TELEBRAS to provide satellite communication services, aiming for commercial use by 2026 [4] Commercial Aerospace Infrastructure - China's commercial launch sites are becoming more sophisticated, with Wenchang Commercial Launch Site enabling rapid satellite production and launch [4] - Multiple rocket products are available to meet different satellite launch needs, with Long March 5 having a payload capacity comparable to Falcon 9 [4] - Domestic commercial aerospace companies are expected to launch reusable rockets by 2025, with costs potentially dropping to 10,000 RMB/kg [4] Mobile Phone Direct-to-Satellite Services - SpaceX has partnered with T-Mobile and other international carriers to provide direct-to-satellite services [6] - China Telecom and China Mobile are also advancing in this area, with Huawei expected to launch low-orbit satellite direct connection services by the second half of 2025 [6] Key Companies to Watch - Antennas and chip components: Aerospace Huanyu, Chengchang Technology, Leidian Weili, etc [7] - Communication payloads: Chuangyi Information, Shanghai Hanxun, Xinke Mobile, etc [7] - Satellite manufacturing and key components: Haige Communications, Tianyin Electromechanical, Shaanxi Huada, etc [7] - Ground and user equipment: Aerospace Huanyu, Mengsheng Electronics, Haige Communications, etc [7] - Satellite operations: China Satcom, China Telecom, China Mobile, etc [7]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's controlling shareholder, Huaibei Mining Group, plans to increase its shareholding by RMB 300-500 million within 6 months, demonstrating confidence in the company's future development [5][6] - The company is a leading coking coal producer in East China, with over 70% of its reserves being high-quality coking coal and fat coal [7] - The Taohutu coal mine, currently under construction, is expected to contribute significant profits upon completion, with an estimated annual profit of RMB 1.671 billion [7] - The ethanol project has entered the harvest period, with a production capacity of 600,000 tons/year, making it the largest single-series production facility globally [8] - The company's revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenues of RMB 74.8 billion, RMB 79.8 billion, and RMB 85.3 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [8] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's net profit is expected to be RMB 5.006 billion, RMB 5.250 billion, and RMB 5.756 billion for 2024-2026, respectively [8] - The PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 7.73x, 7.37x, and 6.72x, respectively [8] - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable, with projections of 16.9%, 17.0%, and 17.3% for 2024-2026, respectively [10] - The company's ROE is expected to be 12.4%, 11.9%, and 12.0% for 2024-2026, respectively [10] Industry and Market Position - The company is a major coal producer in East China, with 17 coal production mines and a total approved production capacity of 35.85 million tons [7] - The company's coal reserves are characterized by low sulfur, very low phosphorus, medium volatility, strong cohesiveness, and good coking properties [7] - The company's ethanol project is the largest single-series production facility globally, with a capacity of 600,000 tons/year [8] Growth Drivers - The Taohutu coal mine, expected to be completed by the end of 2025, will add an annual production capacity of 8 million tons of high-calorific value thermal coal [7] - The company is accelerating the construction of 5 non-coal mines, which are expected to be completed by the end of 2024 [8] - The company is also expanding its chemical business, with projects including 100,000 tons of dimethyl carbonate, 30,000 tons of carbonate esters, and 30,000 tons of ethylamine under construction [8]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业月报 煤炭开采 2024 年 12 月 17 日 证券分析师 | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 煤炭 | 煤炭月报：供给延续回升，非电 | | 优于大市（维持） | 需求边际改善 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 31% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 煤炭开采 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭周报：政策托底内需，坚定 红利投资价值》，2024.12.14 2.《煤炭行业 2025 年度策略：行业 底 部 显 现 ， 先 价 值 后 弹 性 》 ， 2024.12.11 3.《陕西煤业（601225.SH）：收购 陕煤电力，煤电一体协同发 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 消费电子 2024 年 12 月 17 日 | --- | --- | |----------------------------|----------------------------------| | 消费电子 | 消费电子：更多补贴政策或将出台， | | 优于大市（维持） | | | | | | 证券分析师 [Table_Summary] | | 陈蓉芳 资格编号：S0120522060001 邮箱：chenrf＠tebon.com.cn 张威震 资格编号：S0120524110001 邮箱：zhangwz5＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 39% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 消费电子 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《安卓链：10 月旗舰新机密集发布， SoC 和 AI OS 加速迭代 》， 2024.10.14 2《. iPhone16 首发钢壳电池创新，终 端 AI 应用驱动电池持续升级》， 2024.09.24 3.《华为 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 年 月 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|-------|----------------------------------------| | 宏观点评 | | | 广义财政支出再度加速，关注财政货币配合 | | | —— | 2024 | 月财政数据点评 | | 证券分析师 | | | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 连桐杉 邮箱：liants＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 《广义财政支出加速，政策逐步见效 ——2024 年 10 月财政数据点评》 《财政部新闻发布会的八个要点》 《从万亿化债看 25 年财政展望—— —2024 年 11 月 8 日人大常委会财政 新闻发布会解读》 《广义财政支出有待加速——2024 年 8 月财政数据点评》 《广义财政支出低位回升——2024 年 7 月财政数据点评》 《财政的当下与未来——2024年6月 财政数据点评》 核 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 电气设备 2024 年 12 月 16 日 市场表现 | --- | --- | |---------------------------|---------------------------------| | 陕西发布 电气设备 | 2025 年电力交易新规，工 | | 信部发布 优于大市（维持） | 2024 年 1-10 月全国光伏制 | | 证券分析师 | 造行业运行情况 | | [Table_Summary] | | 彭广春 资格编号：S0120522070001 邮箱：penggc＠tebon.com.cn 陕西发布 2025 年电力交易新规：优先电量之外，集中式风电、光伏全部参与市场 交易。12 月 11 日，陕西发改委发布《关于 2025 年电力市场化交易有关事项的通 知》。《通知》指出，大力支持可再生能源、新型主体发展。扩大风电、光伏及丰 水期富余水电交易电量规模，完善适应可再生能源参与的市场交易机制，鼓励发电 企业与用户签订多年期合同。鼓励新型主体参与现货市场，适当拉大峰谷分时价差， 为新型储能、虚拟电厂、电动汽车充电设施等新型主体发 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观周报 年 月 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|--------------------------------|----------------------| | 宏观周报 | | 本周看什么？养老托育、韩国政局 | 2024 12 16 | | | | | | | | -- | 宏观周报（ | 20241209-20241215 ） | | 证券分析师 | | | | 张浩 资格编号：S0120524070001 邮箱：zhanghao3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 戴琨 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 陈冠宇 邮箱：chengy@tebon.com.cn 连桐衫 邮箱：liants＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Summary] 摘要： 核心观点：本周聚焦两个方向，其一，中央经济工作会议强调银发经济与生育政 策，"一老一小"主线明晰。其二，韩国国会通过总统弹劾案。 高频宏观数据：高频数据继续支撑交通运输、煤炭钢铁维持较高景气度，文旅消 费、建筑建材、有色景气度 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 食品饮料 2024 年 12 月 15 日 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 | --- | --- | |------------------|--------------------------------------| | 食品饮料 | 扩大消费摆在优先位置，建议 | | 优于大市（维持） | 把握布局机会 | | 证券分析师 | | | 熊鹏 | 食品饮料行业周报 20241209-20241213 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 资格编号：S0120522120002 邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn | --- | --- | |--------------|----------| | | | | 研究助理 | | | 市场表现 | | | 食品饮料 | 沪深 300 | | 29% 20% 10% | | | 0% -10% -20% | | -39% -29% 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《山西汾酒（600809.SH）：稳 健压倒一切，全面深化高质量发 展》，2024.12 ...