[Table_Main] 证券研究报告|金融产品专题 深度报告 2025 年 4 月 14 日 金融产品专题 证券分析师 温瑞鹏 资格编号：S0120523060004 邮箱：wenrp＠tebon.com.cn 路景仪 资格编号：S0120524070002 邮箱：lujy＠tebon.com.cn 相关研究 金融产品专题 新能源行业基金：β之后，注重细分 行业景气变化及个股α [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 ——主题基金系列研究之四 A 股新能源阶段划分：将 2018/1/1-2025/3/31 划分成 6 个上涨和 6 个下跌阶段， 我们发现：2022 年 8 月 18 日（下跌阶段 4）至 2024 年 9 月 23 日（下跌阶段 6） 各个细分行业的个股涨跌标准差相对较小。我们认为，基金经理应更关注β而非 α。但 2024 年 9 月 24 日之后，各个板块的标准差变大，个股涨跌幅差异变大。 通过分析公募基金在新能源行业里的持仓发现，基金重仓股逐步分化。 新能源被动类基金的投资方式：由于新能源细分行业较多，所处景气阶段有所差 异，所以应根据基金的行 ...

Market Stability Mechanism - The establishment of an "internal stability long-term mechanism" in the capital market is expected to be gradually enhanced through the support of a quasi-"stabilization fund" [4] - The Central Huijin Investment Ltd. has positioned itself as the "national team" in the capital market, emphasizing its role in stabilizing the market by increasing holdings in ETFs [4] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the market have been introduced, including adjustments to insurance fund investment ratios to allow for greater equity asset allocation [9] Macroeconomic Data Insights - High-frequency macro data indicates an increase in the prosperity of real estate, steel, and transportation sectors, while the petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, and construction materials sectors are still in need of recovery [4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars have increased by 10.45% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in consumer demand [16] - The commercial crude oil inventory stands at 442,345 thousand barrels, reflecting a decrease of 3.26% year-on-year [16] Investment Recommendations - Short-term investment strategies should focus on domestic policies that mitigate tariff disruptions, while the stock market should monitor the U.S. tariff actions and the construction of market stabilization forces [4] - The upcoming April Politburo meeting is highlighted as a key observation window for potential policy directions [4] - The bond market is expected to maintain low volatility in interest rates until domestic policies addressing tariff disruptions are implemented [4] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy support falling short of expectations, ineffective policy implementation, and slower-than-anticipated economic recovery [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zai Lab (09688.HK) [2] Core Views - Zai Lab's drug Efgartigimod shows strong potential in the treatment of Myasthenia Gravis (MG) with rapid onset and long-term efficacy, establishing its position as a Best-in-Class (BIC) therapy [8][11] - The FDA has approved the pre-filled subcutaneous injection form of Efgartigimod, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [25][26] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of $564 million in 2025 and $1.357 billion in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 41.35% and 62.46% respectively [7][40] Summary by Sections Market Performance - Zai Lab's stock price is currently at HKD 22.20, with a market capitalization of HKD 24.45 billion [2][7] Financial Data and Forecast - Total shares outstanding: 1,101.28 million - Revenue projections: $267 million in 2023, $399 million in 2024, $564 million in 2025, $835 million in 2026, and $1.357 billion in 2027 - Net profit projections: -$335 million in 2023, -$257 million in 2024, -$166 million in 2025, $17 million in 2026, and $168 million in 2027 - Gross margin expected to improve from 62.94% in 2024 to 69.45% in 2027 [7][40] Drug Development Insights - Efgartigimod has shown rapid efficacy in clinical trials, with 40% of patients achieving minimal symptom expression (MSE) within the first treatment cycle [8][14] - Long-term studies indicate consistent efficacy and safety, with 89% of patients showing significant improvement after 11 treatment cycles [21][22] - The drug is positioned to treat multiple autoimmune diseases, expanding its market potential beyond MG [37][32] Competitive Landscape - Despite the emergence of several competing biologics in the MG treatment space, Efgartigimod's sales growth remains robust, with projected global sales of approximately $2.2 billion in 2024 [32][34]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 再鼎医药(09688.HK) 2025 年 04 月 14 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：医疗保健业/药品及生物科技 当前价格(港币)：22.20 元 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号：S0120524060001 邮箱：zhouxm＠tebon.com.cn 李霁阳 资格编号：S0120523080003 邮箱：lijy7＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -31% 0% 31% 63% 94% 126% 157% 188% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 再鼎医药 恒生指数 | 恒 生 指 数 对 | 1M | 2M | 3M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 比 | | | | | 绝对涨幅(%) | -18.83 | 5.21 | 17.34 | | 相对涨幅(%) | -7.45 | 9.53 | 7.63 | | 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 | | | | 重症肌无力领域近期新药进展众多，我们认为艾加莫德作为 BIC，在 MG 治疗领 域地位难以被撼动。 1）快速起效，快速达标：越来越多的临床试验使用基 ...

资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 郝逸璇 [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 王华炳 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《新凤鸣(603225.SH)：周而复始周 期新，凤鸣长空启华章》，2025.3.3 2.《桐昆股份(601233.SH)：静待桐花 映 日 开 ， 方 得 昆 玉 照 朝 晖 》， 2025.1.27 3.《涤纶长丝深度报告：供需预期再 纠偏，周期弹性被低估》，2025.1.10 4.《涤纶长丝行业更新：高质量发展 倡议出台，看好长周期格局优化》， 2024.12.22 涤纶长丝行业更新：油价风险释 放&需求预期改善，龙头估值有 望修复 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件：①当地时间 4 月 9 日，特朗普宣布将对未实施报复性关税措施的 75 个国家 和地区暂停征收对 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 医药生物 2025 年 04 月 13 日 医药生物 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号：S0120524060001 邮箱：zhouxm＠tebon.com.cn 安柯 资格编号：S0120524060006 邮箱：anke＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 医药生物 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《医药行业周报：中国创新药逐 步进入收获期，关注技术革新与 BD 潜力》，2025.4.6 2.《医药行业周报：减肥赛道持续 景气，关注信达生物、博瑞医药、 歌礼制药等》，2025.3.30 3.《医药行业周报：生命科学产业 链需求端逐步回暖，关注并购催 化，关注毕得医药、泰坦科技等》， 2025.3.23 4.《医药行业周报：流动性改善+基 本面反转，看好港股高值耗材后续 行情，重点关注归创通桥、心泰医 疗、微创脑科学等》，2025.3.17 5.《昆药集团 2024 年报点评：核心 品种快速增长，品牌+渠道建设稳 ...

王华炳 资格编号：S0120524100001 邮箱：wanghb3＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 基础化工 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 研究助理 郝逸璇 邮箱：haoyx＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 26% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《新凤鸣(603225.SH)：周而复始周 期新，凤鸣长空启华章》，2025.3.3 2.《桐昆股份(601233.SH)：静待桐花 映 日 开 ， 方 得 昆 玉 照 朝 晖 》， 2025.1.27 3.《涤纶长丝深度报告：供需预期再 纠偏，周期弹性被低估》，2025.1.10 4.《涤纶长丝行业更新：高质量发展 倡议出台，看好长周期格局优化》， 2024.12.22 涤纶长丝行业更新：油价风险释 放&需求预期改善，龙头估值有 望修复 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 事件：①当地时间 4 月 9 日，特朗普宣布将对未实施报复性关税措施的 75 个国家 和地区暂停征收对 ...

医药生物 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 周新明 资格编号：S0120524060001 邮箱：zhouxm＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 医药生物 2025 年 04 月 13 日 安柯 资格编号：S0120524060006 邮箱：anke＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 医药生物 沪深300 数据来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《医药行业周报：中国创新药逐 步进入收获期，关注技术革新与 BD 潜力》，2025.4.6 2.《医药行业周报：减肥赛道持续 景气，关注信达生物、博瑞医药、 歌礼制药等》，2025.3.30 3.《医药行业周报：生命科学产业 链需求端逐步回暖，关注并购催 化，关注毕得医药、泰坦科技等》， 2025.3.23 4.《医药行业周报：流动性改善+基 本面反转，看好港股高值耗材后续 行情，重点关注归创通桥、心泰医 疗、微创脑科学等》，2025.3.17 5.《昆药集团 2024 年报点评：核心 品种快速增长，品牌+渠道建设稳 ...

[Table_Main] 2025 年 04 月 13 日 范式更迭 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 上周全球股市涨少跌多。美股三大指数领涨，纳指、标普 500 和道指涨跌幅分别 为+7.3%、+5.7%和+5.0%；欧洲市场三大主要指数集体回调；亚太地区仅越南 VN30 指数上涨，其余市场都出现不同程度的回调。 股债汇三杀下，关税有所缓和。上周美元资产集体"滑铁卢"，继美股持续下行之 后，美元指数加速跌破 100 关口，美债利率连续飙升，10 年期美债收益率一度接 近 4.6%的位置，这还是在美国 3 月 CPI 数据弱于预期的背景下，剔除食品和能源 价格后的核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%，连续第二个月回落，且创 2021 年 3 月以来最 低水平，但我们认为后续关税影响或抬升未来几个月的核心通胀。对过去若干年处 于 ...

Market Performance - Global stock markets experienced mixed results last week, with the US indices leading gains: Nasdaq up by 7.3%, S&P 500 up by 5.7%, and Dow Jones up by 5.0%[3] - European markets saw a collective pullback, while only Vietnam's VN30 index recorded an increase, with other markets experiencing varying degrees of decline[3] Economic Indicators - The US dollar index fell below the 100 mark, and the 10-year US Treasury yield approached 4.6%, despite March CPI data being weaker than expected[3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.8% year-on-year, marking the lowest level since March 2021[3] Tariff Adjustments - The Trump administration eased tariffs, implementing a 90-day suspension of tariffs for countries that do not retaliate, reducing tariffs to 10% during this period[3] - The Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency updated guidelines to exempt certain products from "reciprocal tariffs" and reported system issues for tariff exemptions[3] Dollar Confidence - The report questions whether the recent tariff adjustments can restore confidence in the US dollar, which has been impacted by the tariff increases aimed at addressing US fiscal issues[3] - The potential for a shift from a "dollar-centric" market to a new paradigm where non-US currencies like the euro, yen, pound, and yuan gain prominence is highlighted[3] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to reduce exposure to US dollar assets and increase allocations to non-US assets, particularly in European, Japanese, Hong Kong, and Indian markets[3] - The volatility in financial markets presents opportunities for reallocation and diversification[3] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions that could lead to market volatility[3]