[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 大中矿业(001203.SZ) 2024 年 12 月 11 日 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------|------------------------------| | 大中矿业（ 买入（维持） | 001203.SZ ）：鸡脚 | | 所属行业：钢铁 / 冶钢原料 当前价格 ( 元 ) ： 9.83 | 山锂矿资源优势显著，相关工作 | | 证券分析师 | 持续推进 | 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 投资要点 事件：公司发布关于全资孙公司《湖南省临武县鸡脚山矿区通天庙矿段锂矿勘探 报告》矿产资源储量通过评审备案的公告。鸡脚山矿区通天庙矿段本次通过评审 的锂矿资源矿石量为 48,987.2 万吨，Li2O 矿物量为 131.35 万吨，平均品位 0.268%。根据《矿产资源储量规模划分标准》（D ...

Export Overview - In November 2024, China's export value (in USD) was $312.31 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 6.7%[4] - Imports in November 2024 were $214.87 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%[4] - The trade surplus for November 2024 was $97.44 billion, up from $95.72 billion in the previous month[4] Factors Influencing Export Trends - Four short-term factors impacted export performance: weakening external demand, typhoon disruptions, container shortages, and declining export growth in Vietnam and South Korea[5] - External demand indicators showed a decline, with the US ISM Services PMI at its slowest expansion in three months, and the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 45.2, indicating economic contraction[5] - The "Belt and Road" initiative supported exports, with a total export value of 10.52 trillion yuan to participating countries, growing 8.2% year-on-year, accounting for 45.7% of total exports[8] Product and Market Insights - Mechanical and electrical products accounted for 59.5% of total exports, with significant growth in integrated circuits (20.3%) and automotive exports (16.9%)[4] - The export price index showed resilience, with October's index at 94.8, supporting nominal export growth despite short-term fluctuations[8] - The US remains a key market, with exports to the US totaling 3.38 trillion yuan, a 5.1% increase, representing 14.7% of total exports[8] Future Outlook - For 2025, the focus should be on "product power" and "channel power" as core drivers of export growth, emphasizing cost-effectiveness and market expansion strategies[15] - The import outlook for 2025 anticipates a 5.2% year-on-year increase, driven by domestic demand recovery and high commodity prices[16]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Ganyuan Foods (002991.SZ) [2][7]. Core Insights - Ganyuan Foods has a strong focus on flavor innovation and has been deeply engaged in the bean snack market for 18 years, with a diverse product range including seeds, nuts, and puffed snacks. The company has shown steady growth in revenue and profit over the past five years, with a revenue CAGR of 15.20% and a profit CAGR of 22.35% [4][39]. - The snack food market in China is projected to grow from 11,654 billion yuan in 2022 to 12,378 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 1.21%. The nut and fried snack segment is expected to see accelerated growth, with a market size projected to reach 2,220 billion yuan by 2026, reflecting a CAGR of 8.0% from 2021 to 2026 [5][44]. - The company has a robust R&D capability, with 140 patents, allowing it to continuously innovate and meet consumer demands. The restructuring into eight business units has improved operational efficiency and market responsiveness [6][56]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Ganyuan Foods was established in 2006 in Pingxiang, Jiangxi Province, focusing on bean snacks and has expanded its product matrix over the years [22][24]. - The founder, Yan Binsheng, holds 56.24% of the shares, indicating a concentrated ownership structure [24]. Industry Analysis - The snack food market is vast, with significant growth potential in the nut and fried snack sector. The competitive landscape is fragmented, with many players and room for consolidation [44][48]. - The company is well-positioned to capture market share due to its R&D and channel advantages [49]. Future Development - Ganyuan Foods is committed to continuous product innovation and has successfully launched several new products, enhancing its market competitiveness [53][54]. - The company is expanding its distribution channels, including partnerships with mass retailers and high-end membership stores, which are expected to drive growth [56][62]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for Ganyuan Foods are optimistic, with expected revenues of 22.63 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 32.36 billion yuan by 2026, alongside a corresponding increase in net profit [7][39].

0 证券研究报告|行业年度策略 商贸社服 行业投资评级|优于大市（维持） 2024年12月10日 对消费乐观一些 ——商社板块25年策略 证券分析师 姓名：易丁依 资格编号：S0120523070004 邮箱：yidy＠tebon.com.cn 25年策略：对消费乐观一些，把握三大主线 政策直接刺激+基本面边际改善+机构配置低位上涨抛压较小：1）政策面：中观层面，上海消费券政策直接刺激餐饮、酒店；解决就业大纲领利好人 服板块；2）基本面：医美、黄金珠宝等板块走过Q2至暗时刻，增速环比略微改善；3）资金面：当前美容护理、社会服务板块估值具备性价比，9月 至今多龙头公司已从底部反弹，但PE 5年分位数仍为历史较低水平。我们认为对消费可以更乐观些，25年重点把握三大细分方向： 主线一：优选具有强韧性、高景气度的内需消费赛道：1）美妆：双十一大促中，国货公司凭借更强运营能力领先，领先于海外品牌，且胶原蛋白细分 市场仍延续较高热度；Q4为医美周年庆促销活动，预计环比将明显改善，且龙头公司有多款产品获证，供给带动需求。美妆为牛市旗手、基本面韧性 较强，龙头公司估值较21年高点深度回落，我们认为当前处于较低估值水平，推荐巨 ...

0 证券研究报告 | 行业专题 计算机 行业投资评级 | 优于大市（维持） 2024年12月10日 AI终端王者之路 ——美股跟踪：特斯拉深度专题（一） 证券分析师 姓名：陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 证券分析师 姓名：李佩京 资格编号：S0120524090004 邮箱：lipj＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 姓名：王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 核心观点 业务：新车型带动收入增长，规模效应提升利润率水平 公司从造车业务起家，从高端车型向下逐步拓展了Model S/X、Model 3/Y、FSD、储能和光伏、超充产品线。2023年公司收入达到967.73亿美元（同比+18.8%）、毛利率18.44%（同比-7.35pct）、净利润149.97亿美 元（同比+19.44%）、净利率15.47%（同比+0.02pct）；2024Q3公司单季度收入达到251.82亿美元（同比+7.85%）、毛利率19.84%（同比+1.95pct）、净利润21.67亿美元（同比+16.95%）、净利率8.67%（同比 +0.63pct）； ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the precious metals sector, with a brief underperformance in 2023, but significant improvement is expected in 2024. The main business involves the mining and sales of non-ferrous metal ores, primarily silver ingots, gold, and silver-containing lead and zinc concentrates. The company has seven subsidiaries with substantial silver reserves and mining capacity, positioning it as an industry leader [3][26]. - The prices of gold and silver are expected to continue rising, with gold's intrinsic value projected at $2,787.3 per ounce by Q2 2024, while the actual price as of November 13, 2024, was $2,572.20 per ounce. The report suggests that silver has greater price elasticity compared to gold due to its industrial demand [4][56]. - The company is undergoing significant operational improvements, including the completion of mining engineering technology upgrades and acquisitions of remaining stakes in subsidiaries, which are anticipated to enhance profitability and operational efficiency [5][66]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company primarily engages in the mining and sales of non-ferrous metals, with a focus on silver, gold, and silver-containing lead and zinc concentrates. It has a strong resource base with nearly 10,000 tons of silver reserves and an annual mining capacity of approximately 2 million tons [3][26]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of 148 million yuan, a decrease of approximately 59.41% year-on-year. However, for the first three quarters of 2024, the net profit is expected to rebound to 199 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 48.73% [3][37]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a favorable market environment for precious metals, with projections for the company's net profits to reach 360 million yuan, 580 million yuan, and 740 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5][66]. Operational Developments - The completion of mining technology upgrades at the company's subsidiaries is expected to significantly enhance production capacity and efficiency. The company plans to acquire the remaining stakes in its subsidiaries, which will further solidify its market position [5][66]. Resource Reserves - The company boasts rich resource reserves, with a focus on silver, lead, and zinc. Its subsidiaries are strategically positioned to leverage high-grade resources, ensuring a robust operational framework for future growth [73].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 食品饮料 2024 年 12 月 09 日 | --- | --- | |------------------|--------------------------------------| | 食品饮料 | 经销商大会传递信号，建议把 | | 优于大市（维持） | 握年底布局期 | | 证券分析师 | | | 熊鹏 | 食品饮料行业周报 20241202-20241207 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 资格编号：S0120522120002 邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 29% 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 食品饮料 沪深300 -39% 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《山西汾酒（600809.SH）：稳 健压倒一切，全面深化高质量发 展》，2024.12.6 1.《百润股份（002568.SZ）：董 事长解除留置，公司生产经营稳定 向好》，2024.5.25 2.《食品饮料行业周报 20240722- 202 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2024 年 12 月 08 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-------|-------|-------|----------------------------|-------| | 海外市场周报 | | | | | | | | | | | 通胀预期分化，静待数据指引 | | | 证券分析师 | | | | | | 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 上周全球股市涨多跌少。美股三大指数表现分化，纳指和标普 500 分别上涨 3.3% 和 1.0%，道指小幅回调；欧洲方面，三大市场股指集体上涨，德国 DAX 和法国 CAC40 分别上涨 3.9%和 2.7%，英国富时 100 小幅上涨 0.3%；亚太地区多数市 场股指上涨，仅韩国综合指数下跌 1.1%，中国台湾加权指数领涨全球主要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. (601225.SH) [2] Core Views - The company is acquiring an 88.6525% stake in Shaanxi Coal Power Group for approximately 15.695 billion yuan, which is expected to enhance its core competitiveness and align with national policy directions [4] - The acquisition is anticipated to significantly boost the company's performance, with an estimated profit increase of about 1.445 billion yuan post-integration [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.03 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1 billion yuan, which reflects a commitment to shareholder returns [5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 172.3 billion yuan, 174.4 billion yuan, and 178.5 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 21.364 billion yuan, 22.230 billion yuan, and 23.194 billion yuan [5][14] - The company has a strong cash position with 38.79 billion yuan in cash as of Q3 2024, supporting the acquisition [4] - The projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 11.25, 10.81, and 10.36 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation [5][13] Operational Insights - The total installed capacity of Shaanxi Coal Power Group is 18,300 MW, with 8,300 MW operational and 10,000 MW under construction, which will enhance the company's coal power integration [4] - The company has committed to a minimum cash dividend of 60% of distributable profits for the years 2022-2024, reinforcing its focus on shareholder value [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 | --- | --- | |------------------|-------------------------------| | | 2024 年 12 月 08 日 | | 煤炭周报 煤炭 | 红利催化行情，支撑 | | 优于大市（维持） | 估值上行 | 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 18% 24% 31% 煤炭开采 沪深300 2023-12 2024-04 2024-08 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《掘金新疆系列：需求端四大逻 辑 ， 助 力 疆 煤 产 业 链 高 景 气 》， 2024.12.3 2.《煤炭周报：日耗延续回升，煤 价仍有支撑》，2024.12.1 3.《煤炭周报：寒潮扰动来袭，静 待反弹开启》，2024.11.24 4.《煤炭周报：煤价底部确立，需 求释放可期》，2024.11.17 5.《煤炭周报：财政政策再加码， 板块布局正当时》 ...