Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a steady growth in performance, with H1 2024 achieving operating revenue of 50.648 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.30%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.057 billion yuan, up 11.86% year-on-year [6] - The focus on mid-to-high price products has led to significant sales growth, with the main product, Wuliangye, achieving revenue of 39.205 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.45% [6] - The company has successfully implemented a flat recruitment strategy, resulting in a notable increase in the number of distributors and sales channels [7] - The gross margin and net margin both improved, with Q2 2024 gross margin at 75.01% and net margin at 32.82% [7] - The company is expected to achieve operating revenues of 91.649 billion yuan, 100.960 billion yuan, and 112.528 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.1%, 10.2%, and 11.5% [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 50.648 billion yuan, with a net profit of 19.057 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.30% and 11.86% respectively [6] - The Q2 2024 results showed operating revenue of 15.815 billion yuan, a 10.08% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.012 billion yuan, up 11.50% year-on-year [6] Product and Sales Strategy - The company has concentrated on mid-to-high price products, with Wuliangye and other liquor products generating revenues of 39.205 billion yuan and 7.906 billion yuan respectively, marking increases of 11.45% and 17.77% year-on-year [6] - Sales volume for Wuliangye reached 24.2 thousand tons, up 12.07% year-on-year, while other liquor products saw a decline in sales volume by 23.86% [6] Market and Distribution - The company increased its number of distributors significantly, with 98 new Wuliangye distributors and 268 new Wuliangye fragrant liquor distributors added in H1 2024 [7] - Revenue from distribution and direct sales reached 27.594 billion yuan and 19.517 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 13.51% and 11.01% [7] Profitability and Financial Health - The gross margin for Q2 2024 was reported at 75.01%, an increase of 1.74 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 32.82%, up 0.20 percentage points [7] - The company’s contract liabilities increased to 8.158 billion yuan, indicating strong confidence from distributors [7] Future Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 91.649 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.1%, and net profit of 33.820 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.9% increase [9]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 龙源电力(001289.SZ) 2024 年 09 月 01 日 买入（维持） 所属行业：公用事业/电力 当前价格(元)：15.18 证券分析师 郭雪 资格编号：S0120522120001 邮箱：guoxue＠tebon.com.cn 联系人 刘正 邮箱：liuzheng3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 龙源电力 沪深300 建设 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|---------|---------|-------| | -26% 2023-09 | 2024-01 | 2024-05 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沪深 300对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅(%) -11.65 -10.83 -16.72 相对涨幅(%) -8.14 -6.78 -9.50 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《国常会核准 11 台核电机组，行业 保持高景气》，2024.8.20 2.《国家层面首次对全面绿色转型进 行系统部署，打造更有全球竞争力的 现代化经济体系》，2024.8.12 3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [2] Core Views - The company's waste incineration power generation projects are operating stably, and there is active promotion of price adjustments and green certificate trading [4][5] - The company reported a revenue of 1.59 billion yuan for H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 3.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 363 million yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [4] - The company is focusing on improving efficiency and actively pursuing price adjustments and green certificate trading [4] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company generated a total power generation of 1,452.93 million kWh, with an average on-grid electricity price of 0.52 yuan/kWh [4] - The revenue from the household waste project increased by 15.5% year-on-year, while the revenue from the kitchen waste project also grew by 15.2% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 85.9 million yuan [5] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 3.465 billion yuan, 3.701 billion yuan, and 3.997 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9%, 6.8%, and 8% respectively [6] - Net profit projections for the same period are 720 million yuan, 794 million yuan, and 859 million yuan, with growth rates of 19.4%, 10.2%, and 8.2% respectively [6] - The company maintains a PE ratio of 8.02X for 2024, 7.28X for 2025, and 6.72X for 2026 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.166 billion yuan for H1 2024, an increase of 8.72% year-on-year, and a net profit of 949 million yuan, up 11.91% year-on-year [6]. - The company is focusing on expanding its market presence in Anhui while also penetrating surrounding provinces, with high-end products accounting for over 97% of total revenue [6][7]. - Profitability is expected to improve, with projected revenues of 6.58 billion yuan, 7.30 billion yuan, and 8.10 billion yuan for 2024-2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.4%, 10.9%, and 10.9% respectively [7]. Financial Data Summary - For Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.399 billion yuan, a 5.90% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 359 million yuan, up 15.15% year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit margin for Q2 2024 increased by 4.52 percentage points to 75.04%, while the net profit margin rose by 2.06 percentage points to 25.69% [6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 16.487 billion yuan by 2026, with a net profit of 2.422 billion yuan for the same year [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH) [5] Core Views - Dongpeng Beverage continues to show strong performance with a revenue increase of 44.19% year-on-year in H1 2024, reaching 7.873 billion yuan, and a net profit growth of 56.14%, amounting to 1.731 billion yuan [5][6] - The company is effectively implementing a multi-category strategy and expanding its national presence, with significant revenue growth in various regions [6][7] - Cost pressures are easing, leading to improved profitability, with gross margins increasing to 44.6% in H1 2024 [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Dongpeng Beverage achieved a revenue of 7.873 billion yuan, up 44.19% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.731 billion yuan, up 56.14% [5] - For Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 4.391 billion yuan, a 47.88% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.067 billion yuan, up 74.62% [5] Product Strategy - The company’s core product, Dongpeng Energy Drink, generated revenues of 6.86 billion yuan in H1 2024, reflecting a 33.5% increase [6] - New product lines, such as Dongpeng Water, saw a remarkable revenue increase of 281.12%, contributing to 6.05% of total revenue [6] Regional Performance - Revenue growth was notable across various regions, with the East China region growing by 53.6% and the North China region by 99.1% [6] - The company’s dealer network expanded to 2,982, covering over 3.6 million active retail outlets nationwide [6] Profitability Metrics - Gross margins improved to 44.6% in H1 2024, benefiting from lower raw material costs [6] - The net profit margin reached a historical high of 22.0% in H1 2024, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] Future Outlook - The report projects revenue growth for 2024-2026, estimating revenues of 15.341 billion yuan, 19.357 billion yuan, and 22.866 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 36.2%, 26.2%, and 18.1% respectively [7][9] - The forecast for net profit is set at 2.894 billion yuan, 3.753 billion yuan, and 4.571 billion yuan for the same period, with corresponding growth rates of 41.9%, 29.7%, and 21.8% [7][9]

Economic Overview - August PMI for manufacturing dropped to 49.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, marking the first contraction below the threshold this year, excluding February due to seasonal factors[2] - The production index fell to 49.8% and new orders index to 48.9%, down 0.3 and 0.4 percentage points respectively, indicating a persistent supply-demand imbalance[2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - New export orders index rose to 48.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from July, although it remains in the contraction zone[3] - The backlog of orders index decreased to 44.7%, down 0.6 percentage points, suggesting a weak demand outlook[3] Price Trends - The raw material price index fell significantly to 43.2%, down 6.7 percentage points, while the factory price index dropped to 42.0%, down 4.3 percentage points, reflecting declining commodity prices[4] - Major commodities like Brent crude oil fell over 5%, reinforcing downward pressure on prices[4] Inventory and Business Sentiment - Raw material inventory index at 47.6% and finished goods inventory index at 48.5%, both indicating contraction in inventory levels[4] - Large enterprises' PMI stands at 50.4%, while medium and small enterprises are at 48.7% and 46.4% respectively, highlighting a significant disparity in business conditions across different enterprise sizes[4] Future Outlook - The manufacturing production activity expectation index is at 52.0%, indicating a positive outlook despite a 1.1 percentage point decline from the previous month[5] - Accelerated issuance of special bonds in August, nearing 800 billion, is expected to boost construction activity and overall economic growth in the latter half of the year[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the public utility sector [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in renewable energy certificate issuance and trading in China, with 182 million green certificates issued in July 2024, of which conventional hydropower accounted for 56.07% [16][19] - China's energy transition investment reached $676 billion in 2023, making it the largest investor in global energy transition [19] - The report emphasizes the importance of ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) performance, with a focus on the leading position of China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd. in the industry [20][25] Summary by Sections 1. Hotspot Focus - **Domestic**: In July 2024, the National Energy Administration issued 182 million green certificates, with wind power contributing 40.25 million (22.09%) and solar power 31.48 million (17.28%). Cumulatively, 889 million green certificates have been issued by the end of July 2024 [16][19] - **International**: The SIX Swiss Exchange launched the SIX 1.5°C Climate Equity certification, allowing companies to demonstrate their commitment to limiting global warming to 1.5°C [18] 2. Policy Dynamics - The "China's Energy Transition" white paper states that China contributed significantly to global energy transition, with 2023 investments reaching $676 billion [19] - The implementation guidelines for digital and green collaborative transformation were jointly issued by ten departments, emphasizing the integration of digital technology and green development [19] 3. ESG Performance Research - China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd. is recognized for its strong ESG performance, with an AA rating in the iFind ESG rating system, ranking in the top 2.38% of the industry [20][22] - The report identifies 49 material issues affecting the company, categorized into environmental, social, and governance topics [22][25] 4. ESG Financial Product Tracking - As of August 30, 2024, China has issued 4,728 ESG bonds with a total scale of 13.33 trillion RMB, and 138 bonds were issued in the current month alone [29] - The total net value of ESG public funds reached 521.98 billion RMB, with environmental protection products making up the largest share at 38.81% [32] 5. Expert Opinions - Experts suggest further research on carbon market allocation systems and the exploration of carbon financial innovations to enhance market collaboration [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the utility sector [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the transition towards digitalization and green development in the utility sector, highlighting the need for new models for green electricity consumption [2] - It identifies significant investment opportunities in energy efficiency, environmental protection, and resource recycling, particularly in the context of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" [4][50] Market Performance - The report notes a mixed performance across sectors, with the Shenwan (2021) utility sector index declining by 2.2% and the environmental protection index down by 0.7% [26] - Within the utility sector, energy efficiency saw a notable increase of 3.4% [28] Industry Dynamics - Environmental regulations are tightening, with Guangdong Province mandating ultra-low emissions for cement production by the end of 2028, which will drive demand for environmental monitoring instruments and low-emission technologies [2][4] - Financial institutions are encouraged to support green low-carbon technology innovations, particularly in the Yangtze River Economic Belt [2][4] Subsector Performance - In the environmental protection sector, the monitoring/detection/instrument segment rose by 6.5%, while the water services segment fell by 5.6% [28] - In the utility sector, the water power segment decreased by 3.2%, while energy efficiency increased by 3.4% [28] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies involved in energy efficiency and environmental protection, such as Guolin Technology and Beijiete, while also suggesting attention to companies like Icewheel Environment and Huanneng Environment [4][50] - It highlights the ongoing transition towards low-carbon energy structures, with rapid growth expected in wind and solar installations [4][50] Natural Gas Market Update - The report provides insights into the natural gas market, noting a significant increase in the Dutch TTF spot price by 17.6% in August 2024 compared to July [47] - Domestic natural gas production in July 2024 reached 20 billion cubic meters, marking a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [50] Policy Developments - The report discusses the issuance of guidelines for the collaborative transformation of digitalization and green development by multiple government departments, aiming to enhance the synergy between computing power and electricity [2][55] - It also mentions the implementation of a new asset management framework for municipal infrastructure to improve public service functions and support sustainable development [54]

Investment Rating - The automotive industry maintains an "Outperform" rating [1] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant increase in the number of registered users for the vehicle replacement program, surpassing 1.1 million, with over 700,000 applications for scrapping subsidies [12][13] - Major automotive companies are accelerating their electric and intelligent transformation, which is expected to boost industry sales [5] - The report highlights various strategic partnerships and technological advancements within the industry, including collaborations between companies like Leap Motor and Jingxi Group, as well as Baolong Technology and Yinji Technology [16][17] Industry Key News - The vehicle replacement program has seen a rapid increase in user registrations, with over 110,000 registered users and more than 70,000 subsidy applications as of August 23 [12] - Leap Motor signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Jingxi Group to develop online control suspension and braking systems [16] - Baolong Technology and Yinji Technology established a joint venture to create an intelligent automotive connection system manufacturing platform [16] - Canada announced a 100% tariff on electric vehicles imported from China, following similar actions by the US and EU [17] - New regulations for the annual inspection of new energy vehicles have been released, making battery charging a mandatory inspection item starting March 1, 2025 [17] Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with a 1.51% increase compared to a 0.17% decline in the CSI 300 index [5] - The passenger vehicle segment saw a 1.40% increase, led by companies like Xpeng Motors and Geely [5] - The automotive parts sector experienced a 3.52% increase, with Rongtai and Jingu leading the gains [5] New Vehicle Releases - Upcoming vehicle launches include the Lynk & Co Z10, Chery Tiggo 8 PLUS, and NIO's Lido L60, with expected prices ranging from 12.69 to 23.99 million [30] Upstream Key Data Tracking - Steel prices have shown a downward trend since March 2024, along with declines in aluminum and rubber prices [31][32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.95 billion yuan for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.36%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 119 million yuan, down 42.75% year-on-year [3] - The company is increasing its R&D investment, with R&D expenses rising by 12.21% compared to the same period last year, leading to a slight decline in gross margin to 58.30%, down 8.1 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is advancing its product pipeline, with significant developments including the acceptance of the NDA application for Hydroxy Safflower Yellow A and the completion of Phase III clinical trials for several products [3] - Future profit forecasts estimate net profits of 301 million yuan, 381 million yuan, and 459 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 28.3, 22.3, and 18.5 [3] Financial Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 4.196 billion yuan in 2023, projected to decrease to 4.077 billion yuan in 2024, before increasing to 4.601 billion yuan in 2025 and 5.067 billion yuan in 2026 [4][5] - The net profit for 2023 was 185 million yuan, expected to rise to 301 million yuan in 2024, 381 million yuan in 2025, and 459 million yuan in 2026 [4][5] - The gross margin is projected to be 62.7% in 2023, slightly decreasing to 62.3% in 2024, and then recovering to 63.3% in 2025 and 64.0% in 2026 [4][5] - The company's total assets were reported at 5.856 billion yuan, with a total market value of 8.514 billion yuan [4]