Impact on Residents - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates by approximately 0.5 percentage points is expected to reduce monthly payments by nearly 300 CNY for each 1 million CNY loan, potentially increasing consumer spending by around 1 trillion CNY[12][19]. - The negative wealth effect and substitution effect are the two main pathways through which mortgage rate adjustments influence consumer behavior, with the former reducing disposable income and the latter amplifying the impact of debt on consumption[13][14]. Impact on Banks - The reduction in existing mortgage rates may lead to a decrease in net interest margins for listed banks by about 6 basis points, necessitating an overall deposit rate cut of approximately 8 basis points to offset this[12][25]. - The stability of repayments is expected to improve, potentially mitigating the negative impact on banks' asset quality despite the initial price pressure from lower interest rates[12][25]. Market Implications - In the equity market, the focus will shift towards valuation recovery in real estate-related sectors, while the bond market may see a short-term dominance of liquidity-driven movements, with a potential rise in 10-year government bond yields towards the end of the year[12][25]. - The adjustment in mortgage rates is anticipated to enhance market confidence and stabilize consumer sentiment, which is crucial for economic recovery[12][19]. Risks and Considerations - There are inherent risks in the data calculations, including the possibility that policy effects may not meet expectations and external liquidity conditions may exceed forecasts[12][25]. - The disparity in consumption recovery between urban and rural residents, along with high leverage among urban households, poses challenges to overall consumer spending growth[20][21].

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业点评 电子 证券分析师 | --- | --- | |---------------------|--------------------------| | | 2024 年 09 月 24 | | iPhone16 电子 | 首发钢壳电池创新，终端 | | AI 优于大市（维持） | 应用驱动电池持续升级 | 陈蓉芳 资格编号：S0120522060001 邮箱：chenrf＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 电子 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《AI 指引上调，英伟达表明 AI 需 求依然强劲，OpenAI 发布 o1 大模 型》，2024.9.19 2.《华为：新机持续发布，关注产业 链创新环节》，2024.9.18 3.《视源股份：AI 教育赋能，海外自 有品牌加速》，2024.9.12 4.《PCB 板块：24Q2 淡季不淡，24Q3 关注增长确定性强的细分赛道》， 2024.9.11 5.《先进封装助 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 轻工制造 | --- | --- | |------------------|--------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 轻工制造 | 周观点：家居积极因素正在积累，电动自 | | 优于大市（维持） | 行车新国标开始征求意见 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券分析师 毕先磊 资格编号：S0120524030001 邮箱：bixl3＠tebon.com.cn 宋姝旺 资格编号：S0120524060004 邮箱：songsw＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 李陌凡 邮箱：limf3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -31% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 轻工制造 沪深300 -37% 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《周观点：关注出口链向上机 会，家居补贴细则落地，摩托车 8 月出口高增》，2024.9.18 2.《Q2 综述&周观点：板块表现分 化，布局行业龙头，兼顾细分成 长》，20 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 食品饮料 2024 年 09 月 22 日 5.《口子窖（603589.SH）：业绩 符合预期，改革稳步推进》， 2024.5.6 | --- | --- | |----------|--------------------------------------| | | | | | | | 食品饮料 | 茅台注销式回购提信心，看好食品饮 | | 优于大市 | 料结构性机会 | | | 食品饮料行业周报 20240916-20240920 | 证券分析师 熊鹏 资格编号：S0120522120002 邮箱：xiongpeng＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -37% -31% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《食品饮料行业周报 20240909- 20240913-中秋消费氛围较弱，关 注性价比与质价比需求》， 2024.9.17 2.《食品饮料行业周报 20240722- 20240726-板块配置回到低位，建 议关 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 煤炭开采 | --- | --- | |------------------|-------------------------------| | | 2024 年 09 月 22 日 | | | | | 煤炭 | 煤炭周报：非电旺季开启，煤价 | | 优于大市（维持） | 延续反弹 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 薛磊 资格编号：S0120524020001 邮箱：xuelei＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 谢佶圆 邮箱：xiejy＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 37% 煤炭开采 沪深300 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 资料来源：聚源数据、德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《煤炭月报：进口增速放缓，需 求边际改善》，2024.9.18 2.《煤炭周报：节前补库释放，煤 价延续上行》，2024.9.17 3.《兖矿能源(600188.SH)：煤化一 体龙头，成长弹性兼具》，2 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 公用事业 2024 年 09 月 22 日 公用事业 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 郭雪 资格编号：S0120522120001 邮箱：guoxue＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 刘正 邮箱：liuzheng3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 公用事业 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 8 月全社会用电量同比+8.9%，居民用 电量大幅提升 环保与公用事业周报 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 行情回顾：本周各板块涨跌不一，申万(2021)公用事业行业指数上涨 0.6%，环保 行业指数下跌 0.1％。公用事业板块中热电涨幅较大，上涨 3.6%，环保板块大气 治理涨幅较大，上涨 1.1%。 行业动态 环保： （1）生态环境部发布《生态环境部门进一步促进民营经济发展的若干措施》。措 施部署了支持绿色发展、优化环境准入、优化环境执法、加大政策支持等 4 方面 任务，其中明确加快制修订污染物排放标准，完善 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 汽车 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------|--------------------------------| | | | | | | | 8 汽车 | 月欧盟新车销量跌至三年来最低， | | 乐道汽车首款车型乐道 优于大市（维持） | 正式发布 | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券分析师 邓健全 资格编号：S0120523100001 邮箱：dengjq＠tebon.com.cn 赵悦媛 资格编号：S0120523100002 邮箱：zhaoyy5＠tebon.com.cn 赵启政 资格编号：S0120523120002 邮箱：zhaoqz＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% 6% 12% 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《均胜电子（600699.SH）：全球汽 车安全巨头，智能化未来可期》， 2024.9.18 2.《以旧换新政策发力带动行业销 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 公用事业 2024 年 09 月 21 日 | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|--------------------------|--------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ESG 公用事业 | HFCs | 履约管控，提 | | | | | | 优于大市（维持） | 升水泥碳排放核算核查水平 | | [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 证券分析师 郭雪 资格编号：S0120522120001 邮箱：guoxue＠tebon.com.cn 卢璇 资格编号：S0120524050004 邮箱：luxuan＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 刘正 邮箱：liuzheng3＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 公用事业 沪深300 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 资料来源：聚源数据，德邦研究所 相关研究 1.《公用事业板块 2024 年中报总结： 火水核经营稳健 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 计算机 2024 年 09 月 21 日 | --- | --- | |------------------|------------------------------| | | | | | 华为全联接大会，关注鸿蒙原生 | | 计算机 | | | 优于大市（维持） | 与算力底座 | 证券分析师 陈涵泊 资格编号：S0120524040004 邮箱：chenhb3＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 王思 邮箱：wangsi＠tebon.com.cn 市场表现 -43% -34% -26% -17% -9% 0% 9% 17% 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《神州数码：AI 有望驱动云和信创 业绩估值双击》，2024.9.18 2.《OpenAI o1 大模型推理的划时代 革命》，2024.9.13 3.《朗新集团（300682.SZ）：互联网 电视收缩致利润下滑，能源数字化+ 互联网业务快速发展》，2024.9.10 4.《金融信创进一步加速》，2024.9.8 5. ...

Investment Rating - Buy (First Coverage) [1] Core Views - The company is a leading energy enterprise in Xinjiang with a comprehensive industrial chain layout, focusing on traditional energy sectors such as natural gas, coal, coal chemical, and oil & gas exploration, while also actively transitioning to new energy fields like CCUS and hydrogen energy [3] - The coal business has significant capacity growth potential, with a total coal resource of 65.97 billion tons and recoverable reserves of 59.12 billion tons, and plans to increase production capacity to 85 million tons/year in the future [3][45] - The natural gas business is expanding with flexible sales strategies, and the LNG receiving station in Qidong is expected to reach a turnover capacity of 10 million tons/year by 2025 [3][63] - The coal chemical business benefits from high oil prices and has a cost advantage due to self-supplied raw materials, with stable production and sales of products like methanol, coal tar, and ethylene glycol [4][72] Business Segments Coal Business - The company has three mining rights with a total coal resource of 65.97 billion tons and recoverable reserves of 59.12 billion tons [3] - The Baihu Lake mine has a current production capacity of 35 million tons/year, with plans to increase to 40 million tons/year [3] - The Malang mine, with a capacity of 10 million tons/year, has high-calorific value coal (6,132 kcal/kg) and plans to expand to 25 million tons/year [3] - The Eastern mining area has recoverable reserves of over 3 billion tons and is expected to contribute 20 million tons/year during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] Natural Gas Business - The company's self-produced natural gas comes from the Jimunai and Hami plants, with capacities of 500 million cubic meters/year and 700 million cubic meters/year, respectively [3] - The Qidong LNG receiving station has a current turnover capacity of 5 million tons/year, with plans to expand to 10 million tons/year by 2025 [3][63] - The company is actively seeking new gas sources for the Jimunai plant as the Zaysan oilfield transitions to crude oil production [3] Coal Chemical Business - The company's coal chemical products include methanol, coal tar, upgraded coal, ethylene glycol, and dimethyl disulfide, with raw materials sourced from its own coal mines, ensuring low production costs [4][72] - The methanol production capacity is 1.2 million tons/year, with a 99% equity stake, and the ethylene glycol production capacity is 400,000 tons/year, with a 95% equity stake [71] - The coal chemical business benefits from high oil prices, with methanol, coal tar, and ethylene glycol prices maintaining high levels in 2024 [74] Oil Business - The company holds a 52% stake in the Zaysan oilfield in Kazakhstan, with proven oil reserves of 258 million tons and potential reserves of 400 million tons [79][80] - The company plans to achieve an annual crude oil production of 100,000 tons in 2024 and aims to reach a production scale of 3 million tons/year in the future [79] Financial Forecast - The company's net profit is expected to be 4.86 billion yuan in 2024, 6.18 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.52 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.9x, 6.2x, and 5.9x [4] - The coal business is expected to contribute 14.45 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a gross profit of 4.01 billion yuan [82]