Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates a rebound in coal prices due to upcoming winter storage replenishment, with a short-term price forecast indicating stability around 850 RMB/ton and a medium-term expectation of prices rising above 1000 RMB/ton by 2025 [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Tracking - **Price Overview**: The price of Q5500 thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port decreased to 840 RMB/ton, down 1.18% week-on-week. The main coking coal price at Jingtang port fell to 1910 RMB/ton, down 4.98% [10][15] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: Rail input to Qinhuangdao port increased by 7.85% to 42.6 thousand tons, while port throughput rose by 57.81% to 57.6 thousand tons [26] - **Inventory Analysis**: Total coal inventory at major ports increased by 2.58% to 6642.9 million tons, with Qinhuangdao's inventory rising by 5.84% to 544 million tons [32][30] 2. Market Review - The coal sector underperformed the broader market, with a decline of 0.91% compared to a 1.4% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index [50] - The report highlights that the thermal coal price is expected to find strong support at 850 RMB/ton, with the overall market sentiment improving as EPS concerns are alleviated [3] 3. Key Events of the Week - The report notes significant increases in coal imports, with a total of 38.9 million tons imported in the first three quarters of 2024, marking an 11.9% year-on-year increase [51] - The report also mentions that major coal producers are enhancing their supply capabilities and transportation efficiency to meet market demands [51]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 2024 年 10 月 20 日 | --- | --- | |-------------------------------------------|------------------------------| | | | | | | | 有色金属 | 有色金属周报：内外政策趋向宽 | | 优于大市（维持） | 松，金银长期仍为主线，短期氧 | | 证券分析师 | | | 翟堃 | 化铝价格或将维持强势 | | 资格编号： s0120523050002 [Table_Summary] | | 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 康宇豪 资格编号：S0120524050001 邮箱：kangyh＠tebon.com.cn 谷瑜 资格编号：S0120524080002 邮箱：guyu5＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 29% 2023-10 2024-02 2024-06 有 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive long-term investment outlook for the hard technology sector, supported by government policies and recent events that catalyze domestic substitution demand [4][15][16]. Core Insights - The hard technology sector is expected to lead investment opportunities, with a focus on satellite internet, domestic computing power, data elements, and the Beidou replacement [4][15]. - The satellite internet initiative, represented by the Qianfan constellation, is entering a phase of regular launches, with plans to deploy 648 satellites by 2025 to provide global internet services [4][15][16]. - The domestic computing power market is showing initial signs of demand, with significant orders for Huawei's new computing products, indicating a shift towards local alternatives due to international restrictions [4][15][16]. - The data element market is projected to grow significantly, with global data trading expected to rise from $90.6 billion in 2022 to $301.1 billion by 2030, presenting substantial investment opportunities [5][16]. Summary by Sections Investment Strategy - Hard technology is positioned as a leading investment area, with government policies emphasizing technological innovation as a key driver for modern industrial development [4][15]. - The successful launch of the Qianfan constellation satellites marks a significant milestone in China's satellite internet capabilities, with a total of 36 satellites now in orbit [4][15][16]. - The domestic computing power sector is experiencing growth, with China's total computing power reaching 246 EFLOPs in September 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.78% [4][15][16]. Industry News - The successful launch of the Qianfan polar orbit 02 satellite group on October 15, 2024, signifies the commencement of regular satellite deployment for internet services [6][17]. - The establishment of the Beidou Time and Space Big Data Center in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with an investment of 13 billion yuan, aims to enhance data resource capabilities [6][18]. - The completion of the first AI model technology verification in orbit by Guoxing Aerospace demonstrates advancements in space-based AI applications, paving the way for future developments in satellite internet [7][18]. Market Review and Recommendations - The communication sector saw a 5.28% increase this week, outperforming major indices, with particular strength in satellite navigation and AI computing sectors [19][21]. - Key companies to watch include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as firms involved in satellite internet and data elements [19][23].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical industry is expected to benefit from both supply and demand sides, with refrigerant market conditions likely to exceed expectations [1] - Strong external demand and improving domestic demand are driving growth in the air conditioning sector, with a projected global shipment of 196 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [3] - Domestic air conditioning production is expected to reach 178 million units, up 10.5% year-on-year, while sales are projected at 173 million units, reflecting an 11.4% increase [3] - The internal sales market shows a slight decline, with a 1.8% decrease, while external sales have surged by 30.9% [3] Summary by Sections Domestic Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to accelerate domestic appliance sales, with production for air conditioning expected to grow by 5.2%, 8.0%, and 10.4% year-on-year from October to December [3] - The domestic market is supported by increased subsidies and broader coverage of the "old-for-new" policy [3] External Market Dynamics - The resilience of home appliance exports is anticipated to maintain high growth rates, with production for air conditioning exports projected to increase by 51%, 41%, and 11.4% year-on-year from October to December [3] - Emerging markets such as Latin America and the Middle East present significant growth potential for Chinese home appliance exports [3] Regulatory Environment - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has set quotas for the production and use of ozone-depleting substances, which will reduce production and usage by 67.5% and 73.2% respectively [3] - The new quota for R32 is expected to mitigate risks associated with temporary quotas, with an increase of 45,000 tons compared to 2024 [3] Industry Self-Regulation - Major domestic refrigerant companies have signed an initiative to combat illegal production and sales of HFCs, promoting healthy industry development [4] - Key players in the refrigerant market are entering maintenance periods, which may impact supply [4] Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Sanmei Co., Ltd., Juhua Co., Ltd., Dongyue Group, Haohua Technology, and Yonghe Co., Ltd. as potential investment targets [4]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a slight increase in supply and a stabilization in demand for coal, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [3][4] - The report highlights that the coal production and imports have shown year-on-year growth, with domestic coal production in September reaching 414 million tons, a 4.4% increase year-on-year [11][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for demand support from winter storage and economic recovery, particularly with new real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market [4][16] Supply Side Summary - Domestic coal production in September was 414 million tons, up 4.4% year-on-year and 4.52% month-on-month; cumulative production from January to September reached 3.476 billion tons, a 0.6% increase year-on-year [11][12] - Coal imports in September totaled 47.59 million tons, a 3.8% month-on-month increase and a 12.9% year-on-year increase; cumulative imports from January to September reached 38.913 million tons, up 11.9% year-on-year [12][14] Demand Side Summary - Total electricity generation in September was 802.4 billion kilowatt-hours, a 6% year-on-year increase; coal-fired power generation was 545.1 billion kilowatt-hours, an 8.9% year-on-year increase [16][19] - The report notes a divergence in demand across different sectors, with coal demand expected to rise due to seasonal heating needs and supportive economic policies [4][16] Inventory and Price Summary - National coal inventory in September was 67 million tons, a 1.47% decrease month-on-month but a 1.52% increase year-on-year; key power plants had an average coal inventory of 10.7 million tons, a 0.7% year-on-year increase [30][32] - The average price of Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal (Q5500) in September was 856.24 yuan/ton, a 1.92% increase month-on-month but a 7.44% decrease year-on-year [30][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The implementation of the stock repurchase and increase loan policy by the People's Bank of China is expected to enhance the allocation of high-dividend coal stocks, with a first phase loan amount of 300 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.75% [3]. - The coal industry's fundamental bottom has been confirmed, with the potential for dividend value to be reshaped, as coal prices have not fallen below 800 yuan/ton despite pressures [3][4]. - The report highlights three key investment directions: quality dividends, dual-coke elasticity, and long-term increments, recommending specific companies within these categories [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal mining sector has shown a market performance trend with fluctuations ranging from -17% to +43% from October 2023 to June 2024 [2]. Policy Impact - The recent policy changes, including the reduction of deposit rates and the introduction of special loan tools, are expected to favor high-dividend assets, particularly in the coal sector [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes that the supply side has weakened over the past two years, leading to a potential price rebound due to supply constraints, while demand is expected to remain stable due to seasonal factors and supportive policies [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong dividend yields such as Shaanxi Coal and Energy, China Coal Energy, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, while also highlighting companies with dual-coke elasticity and long-term growth potential [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the price increases of refrigerants, vitamins, and food additives, indicating a positive demand outlook and quota implementation for refrigerants [1][4][34] - The basic chemical sector has underperformed the market, with the industry index down 7.1% year-to-date, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 17.2 percentage points [3][27] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.0% during the week of October 14-18, 2024, underperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index (+1.4%) and the ChiNext Index (+4.5%) [3][27] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has decreased by 7.1%, significantly trailing the broader market indices [3][27] 2. Key Events and Company Announcements - Price increases were noted for refrigerants and vitamins, with R32 prices rising by 1,000 CNY domestically and 3,000 CNY for exports, reaching over 40,000 CNY/ton [34] - Vitamin prices have shown a significant fluctuation, with Vitamin A and E prices experiencing a drop of 53.0% and 23.1% respectively from their peaks [5][34] 3. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Strong external demand and improving internal demand for refrigerants are expected to sustain industry growth, with global air conditioning shipments projected to reach 196 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.75% [4][34] - The report anticipates that the new quota for R32 will mitigate sudden risks associated with temporary quotas, supporting a stable supply environment [4][34] 4. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Sanmei Co., Juhua Co., Dongyue Group, and others in the refrigerant sector due to favorable market conditions [4][34] - For vitamins, companies like Zhejiang Medicine, New Hope Liuhe, and Nengte Technology are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the expected price rebound [5][34] 5. Price Movements - The report lists the top price increases in chemical products, including liquid nitrogen (+9.5%) and epoxy resin (+6.1%), while noting significant declines in liquid chlorine (-54.5%) and Vitamin A (-27.9%) [6][34]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Huafeng Technology (688629.SH) based on its potential for growth in the domestic computing power industry and its strong client base [1]. Core Insights - Huafeng Technology is a core supplier in the connector field, with a focus on defense, communications, and industrial applications. The company has established a stable operating condition supported by major clients like Huawei and BYD [1][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing market share of Huawei and the growing demand for AI applications, which will create new growth opportunities in computing power [1][4]. - The company has a strong technical moat, with continuous investment in R&D, maintaining a leading position in the connector industry [1][4]. - The demand for defense modernization and the growth trend in the electric vehicle sector are expected to drive future revenue growth for the company [1][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Supplier in Connectors - Huafeng Technology has been deeply engaged in the connector industry for 60 years, evolving from standard introduction to independent innovation [9]. - The company has a stable state-owned shareholding structure, which has facilitated long-term cooperation with equipment manufacturers [11]. - Major clients include Huawei, ZTE, and BYD, contributing to a stable revenue stream [13]. 2. Growth in Defense Connector Products - The defense connector market has high entry barriers, and Huafeng Technology has accumulated significant technical expertise over 60 years [24]. - Defense connectors contribute significantly to the company's revenue, with a high gross margin [28]. - The demand for defense connectors is expected to continue growing, providing a positive outlook for future performance [30]. 3. Strategic Partnership with Huawei and Growth from AI and Automotive Sectors - The company benefits from Huawei's increasing market share and the rising demand for AI computing power, which is expected to enhance its communication business revenue [36]. - The electric vehicle market is also growing, with Huafeng Technology positioned as a key supplier for major automotive manufacturers [44]. 4. Revenue Forecast and Valuation Analysis - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 1,049 million, 2,495 million, and 2,813 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [49]. - The report highlights that the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is higher than that of comparable companies, reflecting its growth potential in the defense and computing power sectors [49].

Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Outperform the Market (Maintain)" [3] Core Viewpoints - The monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles reached record highs in September, with production and sales completing 1.307 million and 1.287 million units respectively, marking a month-on-month increase of 19.7% and 17%, and a year-on-year increase of 48.8% and 42.3% [10][11] - The establishment of a "Low Altitude Economy Working Group" in Hong Kong aims to develop strategies and action plans for low-altitude economic development [10] - The expansion of Tesla's Berlin factory has been approved, aiming to increase its production capacity to 1 million vehicles annually [10] - The automotive industry is expected to maintain steady growth due to accelerating electrification and intelligentization among major automakers, coupled with favorable policies [5] Summary by Sections Industry Key News - New energy vehicle production and sales hit record highs in September, with new energy vehicles accounting for 45.8% of total new car sales [10] - The Hong Kong government plans to establish a working group to promote low-altitude economic development [10] - Concerns over illegal geographic information mapping by foreign companies in China have been raised, with responses from Tesla and other companies affirming compliance [10] - Donald Trump has proposed tariffs exceeding 200% on cars imported from Mexico [10] - Moody's has downgraded Volkswagen's rating outlook from "stable" to "negative" due to deteriorating performance [10] - EU carbon regulations are expected to increase costs for European automakers by 40%, while Chinese companies enjoy a 30% cost advantage in electric vehicles [10] - Tesla's Berlin factory expansion has been approved, aiming to double its production capacity [10] - India's automotive wholesale sales declined by 1.8% in Q3, marking the first drop in ten quarters [11] - Lucid Group anticipates a larger-than-expected loss in Q3 and plans to issue nearly 262.5 million shares [11] - Toyota and Boston Dynamics announced a collaboration to enhance AI capabilities in robotics [11] - Hyundai's Indian subsidiary is set to launch an IPO expected to raise $3.3 billion, marking the largest IPO in Indian history [11] - Beijing has introduced a subsidy policy for scrapping old trucks to promote the use of new energy vehicles [11] - WeRide has launched a new generation of Robotaxi, the GXR, equipped with advanced autonomous driving technology [11] Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the market, with the SW passenger vehicle index declining by 0.83% and the SW commercial vehicle index increasing by 6.75% [4][5] - The automotive sector's PE valuation for passenger vehicles decreased, while commercial vehicles and automotive parts saw an increase in PE valuation [7][8] New Vehicle Releases - New models released include the Geely Happiness, Blue Electric E5 PLUS, BYD Seal 06GT, and Deep Blue S05 [22]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Vertex Software (603383.SH), as it is covered for the first time [2][4]. Core Views - Vertex Software has over 20 years of experience in the securities IT sector and is expected to benefit from the digital transformation in the securities industry, particularly through its leading position in the "信创" (Xinchuang) initiative [3][4]. - The company has a rich product line that serves various departments within securities firms and is expanding into banking, futures, asset management, trust, and non-financial sectors [16][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Deepening Securities IT for High Growth - Vertex Software was established in 1996 and has evolved through three key phases: the foundational phase of centralized trading systems (2001-2007), expansion into other financial sectors (2008-2019), and a focus on Xinchuang with the launch of the A5 trading system [14][15]. - The company has shown significant growth, with a revenue increase of 19% in 2023, outperforming peers like 恒生电子 (Hang Seng Electronics) and 金证股份 (Jinzhen Co.) [24]. 2. Leading Xinchuang Layout - The company is positioned to capture market share during the critical upgrade of core trading systems in the securities industry, which is transitioning to distributed architectures [3][4]. - Vertex Software has successfully implemented the A5 system at Dongwu Securities, marking a significant milestone in the industry for full-stack Xinchuang deployment [3][19]. 3. Seizing Opportunities in Asset Management Transformation - The company is leveraging the transformation of securities firms and asset management to expand its product offerings, including wealth management and investment banking solutions [3][4]. - Vertex Software has established partnerships with over 40 asset management institutions, enhancing its market presence [20][22]. 4. Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for Vertex Software is projected to be 800 million, 930 million, and 1.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 250 million, 300 million, and 360 million yuan [4][24].