中诚信国际：中国电子元器件行业展望（2025 年 1 月） CCXI 中诚信国际 2025 年 02 月 08 日 作者：杨锐、贾晓奇、王都、王雨涵 中国电子元器件行业展望 2024 年电子元器件下游需求整体温和复苏，不同应用领域复苏程度有所分 化，行业内企业收入及利润恢复增长，经营获现情况承压，消费电子需求回暖程 度存在不确定性，但 AI 应用渗透多个行业成为电子元器件需求的主要增长动力， 同时汽车电子为需求提供长期支撑，中国政府持续稳定的政策支持及国内广阔的 市场空间亦可为行业发展提供支撑。 电子信息制造业产业链复杂冗长，上游涵盖化学原材料、电子元器件及组件 等，中游通过制造加工将不同的组件装配形成整机，下游涉及通信设备、消费电 子、汽车电子、智能家居、工业控制、军事安防等多个领域，应用范围十分广阔。 要点 国内外需求温和复苏带动行业整体经营效益企稳回升，但不同细分行业在竞 争格局及供需关系上有所差异，经营效益改善程度不同；半导体产业整体触底回 升，价格上涨叠加下游需求回暖带动产业链各环节业绩好转，投资趋于理性，加 速行业回暖；受益于供给侧减产效果显现及消费领域需求回暖，光学光电子产业 业绩压力有所缓解， ...

Key Points - The issuance of accounts receivable asset-backed securities (ABS) in 2024 totaled 132 products, with a total issuance scale of 1,615.80 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14 products but a decrease of 10.74% in scale [3][4][35] - Central enterprises and their subsidiaries accounted for 86.61% of the actual financing, with the construction industry representing 88.49% of the issuance scale [3][9] - The median interest rate for 1-year AAAsf rated securities was 2.14%, a decrease of approximately 77 basis points year-on-year [3][20][30] Issuance Situation - In 2024, 115 accounts receivable ABS plans were registered with the Asset Management Association of China, totaling 1,471.01 billion, with an increase of 7 plans but a decrease of 6.19% in scale compared to the previous year [3][30] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange accounted for 96.76% of the issuance, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounted for 3.24% [7] Secondary Market Trading - In 2024, the secondary market saw 2,765 transactions of accounts receivable ABS, a decrease of 13.32% year-on-year, with a total transaction scale of 1,002.67 billion, down 25.03% [33] Maturity Analysis - In 2025, 249 accounts receivable ABS are expected to mature, with a total scale of 1,642.21 billion, accounting for 24.01% of the total maturing securities [34] Product Characteristics - The average issuance scale per product was 12.24 billion, a decrease of 3.10 billion year-on-year, with the average maturity slightly shortened to 2.22 years [15][16] - The distribution of securities ratings showed that AAAsf rated securities accounted for 88.48% of the total issuance [18] Management Distribution - The top five managers accounted for 64.64% of the newly managed scale, with CITIC Securities leading at 19.63% [13]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate market, suggesting a stabilization trend in housing prices and an improvement in market conditions due to supportive policies [1][3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with new policies being implemented to support recovery [1][3]. - The introduction of new regulations regarding judicial auctions is expected to enhance transparency and improve the transaction process for foreclosed properties, potentially increasing their market share and stabilizing the new housing market [3][5]. - The report notes a decrease in the supply of foreclosed properties, with a total of 768,000 properties listed for auction in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 0.9% [5][6]. Market Trends - The report discusses the impact of foreclosed properties on the new housing market, indicating that while their current influence on pricing is limited, they could exert more pressure in lower-tier cities [7][8]. - It mentions that the average transaction price for foreclosed residential properties was 9,128 yuan per square meter in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.1% [5][6]. - The report also notes that the clearance rate for residential auction properties was 30.3%, with significant variations across different cities, particularly higher in economically developed regions [6][7]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The report indicates that the demand for new homes is gradually improving, with a slight increase in sales volume and value in December 2024 compared to previous months [9][11]. - It highlights that the supply of new homes remains high, with ongoing pressure to reduce inventory levels, as the total area of unsold properties continues to rise [10][11]. - The report also points out that the financing environment for real estate companies is showing signs of improvement, with an increase in net financing in the domestic bond market [12][13].

Investment Rating - The outlook for the consumer finance industry is stable, with no significant changes expected in overall credit quality over the next 12-18 months [4][49]. Core Viewpoints - Consumer finance remains a key driver of economic growth, with policies expected to strengthen in 2025 to boost domestic demand [6][49]. - The consumer finance sector has seen significant growth in loan penetration and balances, largely due to government consumption-boosting policies and a shift from mortgage loans to personal consumption loans [9][49]. - Regulatory policies have focused on standardization, aiming to guide consumer finance companies towards high-quality development [14][49]. Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Environment and Industry Policies - The contribution of final consumption to GDP growth has decreased in 2024 compared to 2023, indicating a need for policy support to stabilize consumer demand [7]. - The government has introduced various consumption-boosting policies, particularly focusing on "two new" initiatives to enhance consumer finance's role in expanding domestic demand [9][14]. Overall Development of Consumer Finance Companies - By the end of 2023, total assets and loan balances of consumer finance companies exceeded one trillion yuan, with significant growth driven by stricter regulations and the rising value of licenses [20][35]. - The average loan interest rate for consumer finance companies decreased in 2023, influenced by market rate declines and an increase in guarantee and credit enhancement services [36][48]. Financial Performance Analysis of Consumer Finance Companies - The average loan interest rate for sample consumer finance companies fell from 15.64% in 2022 to 15.05% in 2023, reflecting a trend of decreasing financing costs [36][48]. - Financing costs for consumer finance companies have decreased, with a significant portion of financing still coming from interbank borrowing [40][48]. Summary and Outlook - The consumer finance sector faces both challenges and opportunities in 2025, with asset quality needing close monitoring amid competitive pressures and narrowing interest margins [49]. - The emphasis on expanding domestic demand in government policy is expected to provide a favorable environment for the growth of consumer finance companies [49].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the financing leasing industry, indicating that the overall credit quality will not undergo significant changes in the next 12-18 months [5]. Core Insights - The financing leasing industry in China is experiencing a tightening regulatory environment, leading to a slowdown in overall development and the exit of some leasing companies from the market. However, medium and large leasing companies are showing stable financial performance [5][18]. - The newly released "Financial Leasing Company Management Measures" aims to enhance industry safety through stricter shareholder responsibilities and higher entry thresholds, while guiding leasing companies towards business transformation to support the real economy [7][8]. - The number of leasing companies and contract balances continues to decline, indicating a market cleanup, while financial leasing companies have maintained stable contract balances [18]. - The asset side of leasing companies is under pressure to transform from traditional public utility-focused models to sectors such as energy, automotive, aviation, and healthcare [33][40]. - The report highlights a significant increase in bond issuance by leasing companies, with a total direct financing amount of 847.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 13.09% year-on-year growth [25][28]. Summary by Sections Industry Policy - The report discusses the impact of various regulatory policies, including the "Financial Leasing Company Management Measures" and other national directives aimed at promoting equipment updates and supporting the real economy [8][10][12]. - Local governments have also introduced policies to support the development of financing leasing, particularly in manufacturing and green industries [12][13]. Overall Industry Development Status - The financing leasing industry has shifted from rapid growth to a phase of "reduction in quantity and increase in quality," with a notable decrease in the number of active leasing companies since 2020 [18][22]. - As of June 2024, the total number of registered leasing companies was approximately 8,671, down by 180 from the end of 2023 [18]. - The total contract balance for leasing companies was reported at 5.61 trillion yuan, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.60% compared to the end of 2023 [22]. Financial Performance - The financial performance of sample financing leasing companies shows a downward trend in asset and profit growth, while financial leasing companies have seen some recovery [41][43]. - The net profit growth rate for sample financing leasing companies has declined, with a notable drop in the number of companies reporting positive profit growth [45]. - The average non-performing loan ratio for sample financial leasing companies has increased from 0.78% in 2018 to 0.93% in 2023, indicating rising credit risk [51][52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction industry is maintained at a stable but weakened outlook, indicating a decline in overall credit quality over the next 12 to 18 months, yet still above a negative status level [2]. Core Insights - The construction industry is facing significant challenges due to the real estate sector remaining in a bottom recovery phase, which is adversely affecting overall industry growth and profitability [2][9]. - Infrastructure investment continues to provide support for the construction market, but the overall growth rate of total construction output in 2025 is expected to remain low due to ongoing financial constraints and insufficient improvement in downstream payment and investment demand [7][22]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with state-owned enterprises showing more operational flexibility compared to local state-owned enterprises, which exhibit regional differentiation in performance [2][24]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The report analyzes the construction industry's demand and output, focusing on the interrelation with real estate development, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment trends [8]. Industry Fundamentals - The construction industry is order-driven, heavily influenced by downstream investment demand and the financial status of owners. The real estate market has seen a 9.6% decline in development investment in 2023, while infrastructure investment grew by 5.9% [9][10]. - The total output of the construction industry reached 31.59 trillion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, reflecting a slight decline in growth rate [9][10]. Financial Performance - The financial performance of construction enterprises has weakened, with a 5.85% decline in revenue for sample enterprises in 2024, marking a significant downturn compared to previous years [34][35]. - The average gross profit margin for sample enterprises has slightly decreased, with a notable increase in impairment provisions, particularly among private enterprises, which face greater impacts from the real estate market [36][38]. - The overall debt levels of construction enterprises have increased, with bank loans remaining the primary financing channel, accounting for approximately 70% of total debt [46]. Conclusion - The construction industry is expected to face continued pressure from the real estate sector, with infrastructure investment providing some support but not sufficient to offset the downturn in construction demand [22][24]. - The competitive dynamics are evolving, with state-owned enterprises better positioned to navigate the challenges compared to local and private enterprises, which are likely to continue facing operational difficulties [24][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable but weakened investment rating for the steel industry, indicating a decline in overall credit quality but still above a "negative" status [4][5]. Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is expected to face continued pressure on profit margins in 2025 due to persistent supply-demand imbalances and weak recovery in downstream demand, particularly from the real estate sector [4][6]. - Despite some supportive policies for infrastructure and manufacturing, the overall demand for steel is projected to remain weak, with no significant recovery anticipated in 2025 [4][6]. - The industry is entering a phase of reduction and optimization of existing capacity, with a focus on high-end and special steel production to meet the needs of emerging industries [16][30]. Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - The steel industry's downstream demand has been weak since 2024, with construction and manufacturing sectors showing limited recovery potential [6][13]. - Real estate remains a major source of steel demand, but investment and construction activities have declined significantly, with new construction area down by 23.0% year-on-year [7][8]. - Infrastructure investment has shown some resilience, with a 9.35% increase in broad infrastructure investment in the first ten months of 2024, providing some support for steel demand [8][9]. Industry Financial Performance - The steel industry has experienced an expanding loss margin in 2024, with operating pressures increasing and financial leverage remaining high [34][39]. - Revenue for sample enterprises in the steel sector decreased by 5.36% year-on-year, with average gross profit margins declining to 6.06% [39][40]. - The number of loss-making enterprises has increased, with 11 companies reporting losses in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating a significant financial strain across the industry [40][41]. Conclusion - The steel industry is expected to remain in a weak operational state in 2025, with limited improvements in profitability due to ongoing supply-demand mismatches and external economic pressures [29][34]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring credit risks, particularly for companies with continuous losses and weak financial management capabilities [34][43].

Investment Rating - The report rates the overall credit quality of the home appliance industry as "stable" with an expectation of improvement over the next 12 to 18 months, although it has not yet reached a "positive" status [4][7]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry in China is expected to see sustained growth in both revenue and profit due to favorable policies such as the "old-for-new" program, which is anticipated to stimulate consumer demand in the second half of 2024 [4][6]. - The report highlights that the domestic home appliance market is currently in a phase of both incremental and stock demand, with significant potential for upgrades due to the aging of existing appliances [8][9]. - The export of home appliances is projected to continue to grow, driven by strong overseas demand, particularly in the white goods segment [12][23]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The analysis focuses on macroeconomic conditions, policy impacts, market supply-demand dynamics, and core material price trends to assess the credit fundamentals of the home appliance industry [7]. Industry Fundamentals - The "old-for-new" policy introduced in 2024 is expected to inject momentum into consumer demand, with major brands likely to benefit more from subsidies [8][9]. - The home appliance market is characterized by a high ownership rate, with over 3 billion units in use, indicating a substantial potential for replacement and upgrades [8]. Financial Performance - The financial performance of sample companies in the home appliance sector shows growth in revenue and operating profits, with improved operational efficiency and a manageable level of debt [6][12]. - The average cash cycle has shortened year-on-year, indicating better liquidity management among companies [6]. Market Performance Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, the retail sales of home appliances outperformed the overall retail sales of consumer goods in China, with exports reaching new highs [12][13]. - The report notes that the white goods segment, particularly air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, has shown robust export growth [23]. Segment Performance and Competitive Landscape - The color TV market is stabilizing globally, with Chinese brands maintaining a strong position in manufacturing and exports, despite a slight underperformance in the domestic market [15][22]. - The white goods market is experiencing rapid growth in exports, with significant increases in the sales of air conditioners and refrigerators [23][29]. - The kitchen appliance market is expected to rebound in the second half of 2024 due to the "old-for-new" policy, although small kitchen appliances are facing challenges [30][34]. Cleaning Appliances - The cleaning appliance sector is witnessing rapid growth, particularly in robotic vacuum cleaners and floor washers, with domestic manufacturers poised to capture more market share internationally [35][36].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction industry is maintained at a stable but weakened outlook, indicating a decline in overall credit quality over the next 12 to 18 months, yet still above a negative status level [2]. Core Insights - The construction industry is facing significant challenges due to the real estate sector remaining in a bottom recovery phase, which is adversely affecting overall industry growth and profitability [2][9]. - Infrastructure investment continues to provide support to the construction market, but the overall growth rate of total construction output in 2025 is expected to remain low due to ongoing financial constraints and insufficient new project launches [7][22]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with state-owned enterprises showing more resilience compared to local state-owned and private enterprises, which are experiencing greater operational difficulties [24][29]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The report analyzes the construction industry's demand and output, focusing on the interrelation with real estate development, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments, while assessing the impact of policies and competitive dynamics on future opportunities and challenges [8]. Industry Fundamentals - The construction industry is heavily influenced by downstream investment demand, primarily from infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing sectors. In 2023, real estate investment decreased by 9.6%, while infrastructure investment grew by 5.9% [9][10]. - The total output of the construction industry in 2023 reached 31.59 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8%, albeit with a slight decline in growth rate [9]. - The construction sector is expected to face continued pressure from a contracting market, with new project expansion becoming increasingly difficult due to financial constraints [7][9]. Financial Performance - The financial performance of construction enterprises has weakened, with revenue growth becoming increasingly challenging. In 2023, sample enterprises reported a revenue increase of 6.69%, but this growth rate has been declining for three consecutive years [34]. - By the first nine months of 2024, revenue for sample enterprises decreased by 5.85%, with state-owned enterprises showing more resilience compared to local and private enterprises [35]. - The average gross profit margin for sample enterprises has slightly declined, with increased competition further compressing profit margins [36]. Conclusion - The construction industry is expected to continue facing significant challenges, particularly from the real estate sector, which remains a major obstacle to growth. Infrastructure investment will provide some support, but it is unlikely to fully offset the negative impacts from the real estate downturn [22][24].

Investment Rating - The electronic components industry is rated as stable for the next 12 to 18 months [6]. Core Insights - The electronic components industry is expected to see a moderate recovery in downstream demand in 2024, with varying degrees of recovery across different application areas. AI applications are becoming a major growth driver for electronic components demand, while automotive electronics provide long-term support for demand growth [5][10]. - The semiconductor industry is showing signs of recovery, with price increases and improved downstream demand contributing to better performance across the industry chain. The optical optoelectronics sector is experiencing some relief from performance pressure due to supply-side reductions and recovering consumer demand, although it remains at a low operational level [8][25]. - The overall financial performance of sample enterprises in the electronic components industry is improving, with total revenue and profit levels recovering. However, the operational performance varies significantly across different sub-industries [39]. Summary by Sections Industry Outlook - The electronic components industry is projected to experience a moderate recovery in downstream demand in 2024, with AI-related computing power demand expected to drive significant growth in capital expenditures for communication equipment and data centers [10][24]. - The automotive electronics market continues to grow, supported by the ongoing development of the new energy vehicle market, which is expected to provide long-term demand growth for electronic components [23][24]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the total revenue of sample enterprises in the electronic components industry is expected to increase by 11.16% to approximately 1,106.26 billion yuan, with semiconductor and printed circuit board enterprises showing the highest revenue growth rates of 25.32% and 19.09%, respectively [39]. - The overall financial performance of the electronic components industry is improving, with most sub-industries showing positive trends in revenue and profit recovery, although the degree of recovery varies [38][39].