www.ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 | 金融机构部 | 评级总监 | | --- | --- | | 王雅方 | 010-66428877 | | | yfwang@ccxi.com.cn | | 金融机构部 | 评级副总监 | | 孟 航 | 010-66428877 | | | hmeng@ccxi.com.cn | 中诚信国际 中国财产险行业 中国财产险行业展望，2025 年 4 月 行业展望 2025 年 4 月 | 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 摘要 | 1 | | 监管环境 | 2 | | 业务运营 | 4 | | 财务状况 | 8 | | 附表 | 13 | 联络人 | 作者 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金融机构部 | | | | 张 | 璐 | 010-66428877-432 | | | | lzhang@ccxi.com.cn | | 陶美娟 | | 010-66428877-323 | | | | mjtao@ccxi.com.cn | | 赵紫祎 | | 010-66428877-551 | | | | zyzhao@ccxi.com ...

| 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 摘要 | 1 | | 监管环境 | 2 | | 业务运营 | 4 | | 财务状况 | 8 | | 附表 | 13 | 联络人 www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 2025 年 4 月 | 作者 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金融机构部 | | | | 张 | 璐 | 010-66428877-432 | | | | lzhang@ccxi.com.cn | | 陶美娟 | | 010-66428877-323 | | | | mjtao@ccxi.com.cn | | 赵紫祎 | | 010-66428877-551 | | | | zyzhao@ccxi.com.cn | 其他联络人 | 金融机构部 | 评级总监 | | --- | --- | | 王雅方 | 010-66428877 | | | yfwang@ccxi.com.cn | | 金融机构部 | 评级副总监 | | 孟 航 | 010-66428877 | | | hmeng@ccxi.com.cn | 中诚信国际 中国财产险行业 中国财产险行业展望，2025 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 2025 年 4 月 | 目录 | | | --- | --- | | 摘要 | 1 | | 监管环境 | 2 | | 业务运营 | 3 | | 财务状况 | 7 | | 附表 | 12 | 联络人 | 作者 | 金融机构部 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 张 | 璐 | 010-66428877-432 | lzhang@ccxi.com.cn | | 邓 | 婕 | 010-66428877-631 | jdeng@ccxi.com.cn | | 陶美娟 | 010-66428877-323 | mjtao@ccxi.com.cn | | | 其他联络人 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 金融机构部 | 评级总监 | | | 王雅方 | | 010-66428877 | | | | yfwang@ccxi.com.cn | | 金融机构部 | 评级副总监 | | | 孟 航 | | 010-66428877 | | | | hmeng@ccxi.com.cn | 中诚信国际 中国人身险行业 中国人身险行业展 ...

地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 专题研究 2025 年 1 月 1 日—3 月 3 1 日 2025 年第 1 期 高收益债研究 高息资产稀缺性凸显， 聚焦风险收益平衡精细化择券 ——高收益债 2025 年一季度回顾及下阶段展望 本期要点 ◼ 策略及展望 作 者： 中诚信国际 研究院 | 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn | | --- | | 郝云龙 ylhao@ccxi.com.cn | | 王 晨 chwang01@ccxi.com.cn | | 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn | 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【高收益债 2024 年回顾及下阶段展望】市 场规模收缩分化趋势明显，结构性机会尚 有可为，2025-1-22 【高收益债 2024 年三季度回顾及下阶段展 望】市场规模收缩且行且珍惜，关注新一 轮政策投资机遇，2024-10-20 【高收益债 2024 年半年度回顾及下阶段展 望】高收益债延续缩量，优选主体拉久期 下沉品种，2024-7-23 【2024 年上半 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, highlighting the emergence of a "good housing" era and the expected stabilization of the market [1][7]. Core Insights - The real estate market has shifted towards improvement-driven housing demand, with "good housing" becoming a key focus for both central and local governments, aiming to stimulate market recovery [1][5][7]. - The introduction of new housing standards is expected to enhance sales velocity and pricing for new projects, while older projects may face increased challenges in sales [1][7]. - The demand for larger and more comfortable living spaces is evident, with a notable increase in the sales of four-bedroom units, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [2][7]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The real estate market is currently experiencing a "small spring" with signs of recovery, driven by government policies promoting "good housing" [1][8]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a shift in purchasing behavior from two- and three-bedroom units to four-bedroom units, with the latter's market share exceeding 30% for the first time [2][7]. Government Policies - Central and local governments are emphasizing the construction of "good housing," which is characterized by safety, comfort, sustainability, and intelligence [6][7]. - Various cities have implemented policies to enhance housing quality, such as increasing usable space and improving living conditions [6][7]. Sales Performance - New housing projects adhering to the new standards have shown significantly better sales performance compared to older projects, with a strong market presence for "fourth-generation housing" [6][7]. - In March, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing saw a reduction in year-on-year declines, indicating a gradual market recovery [9][11]. Market Dynamics - The land market is experiencing a reduction in transaction volume but an increase in quality, with several new "land kings" emerging in major cities [10]. - The second-hand housing market is also stabilizing, with a notable increase in transaction volumes in key cities, particularly in first-tier cities [12][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the infrastructure investment and financing (hereinafter referred to as "base investment") industry policies continue the overall idea of "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts" of the "package debt - resolution" policy in 2024, and pay more attention to the balance between debt resolution and development [3][5]. - The "package debt - resolution" policy has achieved phased results, with many regions achieving zero implicit debts. The industry adheres to resolving debts while developing and vice versa, strengthens special - bond support, and guides the standardized development of government investment funds to assist the transformation of base - investment enterprises [5][7][8]. - Under the influence of policies, the short - term debt - repayment pressure of base - investment enterprises has been relieved, the financing channels are continuously adjusted, the marginal liquidity is improved, and the bond financing cost is reduced. However, the non - standard debt situation in some provinces still needs attention [14]. - In 2025, the base - investment industry policies are expected to continue the main tone of "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts", and the industry's debt risk is generally controllable. New investment space may be opened, but issues such as the tightening of financing channels, non - standard debt replacement progress, and changes in the government - enterprise relationship after enterprise transformation need to be concerned [23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Policy Review - **Policy Continuity and New Requirements**: In 2025, the base - investment industry policies continue the "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts" idea of 2024, and the 2025 national government work report puts forward new requirements such as dynamically adjusting the list of high - risk debt regions and opening up new investment space [3][5]. - **Phased Results of Debt Resolution**: In the first quarter of 2025, many regions announced that they had achieved zero implicit debts in 2024, involving 10 provinces and 23 cities. For example, Xuzhou in Jiangsu Province used 11.881 billion yuan of special bonds to replace implicit debts and completed the task of zero implicit debts [5]. - **Debt Resolution in Development**: The 2025 national government work report proposes to dynamically adjust the list of high - risk debt regions. Some regions may be planning to withdraw from the list of key provinces. The central bank also guides the resolution of financial debt risks of financing platforms and supports their market - oriented transformation [7]. - **Support for Enterprise Transformation**: Special bonds are strengthened to support infrastructure construction, rural revitalization, and consumption - related fields. The State Council General Office issues a guiding opinion on promoting the high - quality development of government investment funds, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange revises relevant rules to guide the transformation of base - investment enterprises [8][9][11]. 3.2 Policy Main Impacts - **Relieved Short - term Debt - Repayment Pressure**: Since November 2024, the government has increased the local government debt limit to replace existing implicit debts. In the first quarter of 2025, 1.34 trillion yuan of special bonds were issued for this purpose, exceeding half of the annual quota, and the short - term debt - repayment pressure of base - investment enterprises has been relieved [14][15]. - **Adjusted Financing Channels**: In the first quarter of 2025, the issuance scale and net financing of base - investment bonds decreased compared with the same period last year. The non - standard debt scale decreased, and the proportion of bank loans in the debt of base - investment enterprises may increase [16]. - **Improved Liquidity and Reduced Financing Cost**: The liquidity of base - investment enterprises has been continuously improved, and the weighted average issuance interest rate of base - investment bonds in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 11BP compared with the fourth quarter of 2024. The financing cost of base - investment enterprises in key provinces has decreased significantly [17]. - **Converged Non - standard and Bill Public Opinions**: The negative public opinions of base - investment non - standard risks have converged. In the first quarter of 2025, the total number of non - standard risk events decreased by about 41% compared with the fourth quarter of 2024 and about 51% compared with the first quarter of 2024. However, the non - standard risk situation in some regions still needs attention [18]. - **Released Liquidity by Special Bonds**: Special bonds support project investment and land asset recovery. In the first quarter of 2025, the new quota of government special bonds for infrastructure construction increased significantly, and some special bonds were used for land reserve projects, which helped base - investment enterprises dispose of idle and inefficient land assets and release liquidity [19][20]. - **Enterprise Transformation and High - quality Development**: Policy guidance promotes the transformation and high - quality development of base - investment enterprises. The proportion of market - oriented entities among bond - issuing enterprises has increased, and the transformation is expected to accelerate [21][22]. 3.3 Industry Development Expectations - **Controllable Debt Risk**: In 2025, the base - investment industry policies will continue the main tone of "controlling new debts and resolving existing debts". The debt risk of the industry is generally controllable, but the implementation of financial debt - resolution policies and the adjustment of financing channels need to be concerned [23][25]. - **New Investment Space and Enterprise Transformation**: The current debt - resolution work emphasizes the balance between debt resolution and development. New investment space may be opened, and base - investment enterprises are expected to focus on key investment fields and industrial investment. The process of enterprises withdrawing from the platform and industrial transformation is expected to accelerate [25]. - **Challenges and Concerns**: The fundamental improvement of base - investment enterprises is still under pressure, and the progress of non - standard debt replacement is uncertain, which may affect the public opinion trend. The changes in the government - enterprise relationship after enterprise transformation also need continuous attention [25][33][34].

监测周报 2025 年 4 月 14 日—2025 年 4 月 20 日 总第 340 期 2025 年第 14 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 财政部隐债问责通报案例首涉 PPP 项目 河南发布国企境外债管理办法意见稿 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年第 14 期 本期要点 ◼ 要闻点评 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 13 期】拟成立专项基金加大收储力度， 地方债存量规模突破 50 万亿，2025-04-18 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 12 期】关注城市更新示范城市城投业务 机会，四川印发财税体制改革总体方案， 2025-04-11 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 11 期】上交所"3 号指引"引导城投 "真转型"，湖南率先出台专项债"自审 自发"方案，2025-04-03 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2025 年 第 10 期】第二批 2 万亿债务置换额度已完 成六成，山东淄博落地区县 ...

信用利差周报 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 2025 年 4 月 1 4 日—4 月 18 日 总第 559 期 2025 年第 15 期 债券市场研究 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 郝云龙 ylhao@ccxi.com.cn 卢菱歌 lglu@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 【信用利差周报2025年第13期】科创公司 债年内发行规模突破千亿，美国对等关税 落地对华加征 34%关税 2025-4-8 【信用利差周报2025年第12期】三部门发 文支持科技型企业债券融资，5000 亿元特 别国债定向注资国有大行 2025-4-1 【信用利差周报 2025 年第 11 期】3 月信用 债发行遇冷，交易所多维发力畅通投融资 双循环 2025-3-25 【信用利差周报2025年第10期】央行进一 步回笼资金，情绪驱动收益率延续调整 2025-3-18 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731 ...

专题研究 （2025 年 4 月） 利率研究 全面降准或率先落地，关税博弈下收益率高波 动或延续 ——一季度货币政策与利率债回顾与下阶段展望 本期要点 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731； gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 王 晨 chwang01@ccxi.com.cn 简评 MLF 改革：转向多重价位招标，淡 化政策利率属性，2025 年 3 月 三问 2025 年特别国债——全国两会精神学 习系列之三，2025 年 3 月 2025 年政府工作报告的八大关注点——全 国两会精神学习系列之一，2025 年 3 月 长端利率迈入"1"时代，降准降息仍可 期，2025 年 1 月 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 降息落地融资环境或将改善，债市收益率 中枢存在下行空间——1 月 17 日央行降 息点评 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn · 特别评论 2025 年 4 月 目录 | 要点 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 债务成因分析 | 2 | | 主要化债举措及进展 | 6 | | 发债城投基本面观察 | 8 | | 总结 | 12 | 联络人 作者 政府公共评级部 芦婷婷 ttlu@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 苏中区域债务浅析及发债城投观察 要点 1 行业研究 依托优越的区位优势和国家级战略叠加效应，苏中区域经济快速发展，其经 济总量增速已连续多年位居江苏省前列。值得注意的是，在固定资产投资持 续发力推动产业转型升级的背景下，苏中区域产业布局仍偏传统，第三产业 特别是生产性服务业发展相比于苏南地区来说相对缓慢，导致税源培育能力 与苏南发达地区存在一定差距。同时，在房地产市场深度调整背景下，土地 出让收入缩减导致政府性基金预算收入持续承压。在既往债务驱动型增长模 式下已形成双重债务压力。 在省级统筹与地市差异化政策实施的债务管控体系下，苏中三市在在融资平 台转型及数量压降、债务规模管控、债务融资成本压降、融资结构优化等维 度取得显著进展，债务风险防控能力系统性提升。 苏中三市发债城投层级下 ...