Investment Rating - The report indicates a "stable weakening" outlook for the overall credit quality of the paper industry over the next 12 to 18 months, with expectations that it will remain above a "negative" status level [5]. Core Insights - Since 2025, the paper industry has experienced continuous negative growth in PPI, with overall profitability under pressure due to weak demand recovery and a loose supply environment. The industry is expected to hover at the bottom of its economic cycle in 2026 [5][9]. - The report highlights that leading companies with advantages in "product differentiation and integrated pulp-paper operations" are likely to recover profitability first, while mid-tier companies that rely heavily on purchased pulp and face low operating rates may encounter risks of "incremental growth without profit" or even losses [5][29]. - The report emphasizes that the overall credit quality of the paper industry is expected to weaken compared to the previous year, but still remains in a stable condition [5]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The analysis of the paper industry's credit fundamentals begins with macroeconomic factors, followed by a focus on changes in raw materials, production supply, and consumer demand, leading to insights on product price trends and competitive dynamics [8]. Industry Fundamentals - The paper industry is characterized as a typical cyclical industry, with its performance closely correlated to macroeconomic trends. The GDP growth rate slightly increased to 5.20% in 2025, while the added value of the paper industry decreased to 3.10% [9]. - The report notes that from January to November 2025, the total profit of large-scale paper and paper product enterprises decreased by 10.70% year-on-year, indicating a weak industry outlook [9]. Industry Financial Performance - The report states that the overall profitability indicators, cash generation ability, and debt repayment indicators of the paper industry have weakened since 2025. It anticipates a low-level recovery in operational indicators in 2026, but warns of increased debt pressure due to new investments [30]. - The sample of 30 companies analyzed includes a diverse representation of the paper industry, covering cultural, packaging, life, and specialty paper sectors, providing a comprehensive view of the industry's operational and financial performance [30]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the prices of major paper types have generally declined since 2025 due to a loose supply environment, with expectations for continued pressure on prices in 2026 [40]. - It highlights that the competition remains intense, with leading companies likely to recover profitability faster than those with high reliance on purchased pulp and low operating rates [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable but weakened investment rating for the Chinese steel industry, indicating a neutral overall credit impact despite ongoing challenges [4][6]. Core Insights - The Chinese steel industry is expected to stabilize at the bottom and show signs of fragile recovery in 2026, driven by structural upgrades and cost relief, while facing supply-demand contradictions and price pressures [4][6]. - The overall credit quality of the industry is projected to weaken in the next 12 to 18 months but will remain above a "negative" status level [4][6]. - The competitive landscape of the steel industry has entered a new phase focused on quality improvement and efficiency, with a notable recovery in operational performance since 2025 [6][22]. Industry Fundamentals Analysis - The steel industry is experiencing a mix of factors, including persistent overcapacity, demand pressure, and price suppression, leading to a stabilization at the bottom and a fragile recovery [7][8]. - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with significant declines in investment and construction metrics, but policy support is expected to mitigate negative impacts on the steel industry [8][15]. - Infrastructure investment is projected to stabilize and support steel demand, with government measures aimed at increasing investment in key areas [8][15]. Industry Credit Analysis - The competitive landscape has shifted towards quality enhancement, with major players like China Baowu Steel Group and Ansteel Group leading consolidation efforts [34][35]. - The industry is characterized by a high level of financial leverage and weak debt repayment indicators, but no significant credit adjustments have been observed [34][39]. - The credit risk landscape is expected to remain controllable, although individual companies with persistent losses and weak financial management may face heightened credit risk exposure [34][39]. Investment Spending Analysis - The steel industry has entered a phase of investment contraction and structural optimization, with a focus on green and low-emission projects [31][32]. - Investment in the industry is expected to remain constrained due to ongoing financial pressures and the need for compliance with environmental regulations [31][32]. - The transition towards high-end product development and technological upgrades is anticipated to dominate capital expenditures in the coming years [31][32].

监测周报 2026 年 1 月 26 日—2026 年 2 月 1 日 总第 375 期 2026 年第 4 期 中诚信国际研究院 院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 地方政府债与城投行业 中央 1 号文件再提"创新乡村振兴投融资机制" 辽宁、甘肃融资平台累计压降均超八成 ——地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2026 年第 4 期 本期要点 ◼ 要闻点评 ◼ 地方政府债与城投债交易情况 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 鲁 璐 llu@ccxi.com.cn 张 堃 kzhang02@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn gzhao@ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2026 年第 3 期】青海提出 2026 年确保退出重 点省份，地方政府债券存量规模突破 55 万亿 2026-1-31 【地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2026 年第 2 期】四大维度定调 2026 年积极财 政政策，财政金融促内需一揽子政策落地 2026-1-23 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 2026 年 2 月 目录 | 核心观点 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 行业基本面分析 | 2 | | 行业内企业信用表现 | 9 | | 结论 | 15 | | 附表 | 16 | 中诚信国际行业展望 中诚信国际 行业展望 中国电子设备行业 中国电子设备行业展望 预计 2026 年在政策托底、AI 算力赋能等积极因素与国际贸易政策 高频调整与核心材料涨价的挑战并存下，行业信用水平将保持稳 定。 中国电子设备行业的展望为稳定，中诚信国际认为未来 12~18 个月该行业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 | 行业 | 未来 个月展望 12~18 | | --- | --- | | 电子设备行业 | 稳定 | | 其中：家电 | 稳定 | | 计算机 | 稳定 | | 通讯设备 | 稳定提升 | | 智能消费设备 | 稳定弱化 | 核心观点 结论 14 联络人 作者 企业评级部 杨 锐 027-87339288-288 ryang@ccxi.com.cn 贾晓奇 027-87339288-276 xqjia@ccxi.com.cn 毛楚杰 027-87339288-211 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report In 2025, facing increased internal and external economic pressures, the bond market in China adheres to the development principle of "promoting development, optimizing structure, and improving quality." Through product innovation, institutional reform, and opening - up, it strengthens direct financing functions, supports key areas, and promotes high - quality development of the real economy. The policies in the bond market are characterized by innovation, standardization, and opening - up, aiming to enhance the market's service quality and attract more capital [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Focus Areas: Product Innovation in the Bond Market and Support for Key Areas - **Innovation and Mechanism Optimization of Science - and - Technology - Related Bonds**: Policy support for science - and - technology bonds is significant. The launch of the "Science and Technology Board" and the introduction of science - and - technology convertible bonds have promoted the development of science - and - technology bonds. In 2025, two batches of private venture - capital institutions issued 9 science - and - technology bonds with a total scale of 2.28 billion yuan. However, the expansion of private - enterprise venture - capital science - and - technology bonds may require more policy support. The trading association has also optimized merger - and - acquisition notes, with 13 such notes issued in 2025, totaling 12.9 billion yuan [6][8][9]. - **Increased Attention to Private - Enterprise Financing**: In 2025, the issuance scale of private - enterprise credit bonds was 372.638 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 37.04%, and the proportion in credit bonds increased by 0.54 percentage points to 2.59%. Although there is marginal improvement, the proportion is still low, and long - term policy efforts are needed [10][11]. - **Support for the Sports Industry**: In 2025, multiple departments issued policies to support the sports industry's financing through the bond market, which is expected to increase the supply of sports - industry credit bonds and promote the innovation of asset - securitization products [12]. - **Upgraded Support for Rural Revitalization**: In 2025, the central bank and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a document to support rural revitalization through bond financing. The issuance scale of rural - revitalization bonds was 10.815 billion yuan, but policy - guidance and product attractiveness need to be improved [13][14]. Market Standardization: Emphasizing Standardized Development and Improving Service Quality - **Optimization of Rules in Issuance, Trading, and Valuation**: Exchanges have revised issuance - review guidelines, and the trading association has refined valuation - institution rules. At the same time, bond - duration management has been strengthened, and bond - underwriting business supervision has been intensified to rectify market irregularities [16][17][18]. - **Optimization of Three Core Business Rules**: The bond market has optimized bond lending, general repurchase, and buy - back business rules to improve market liquidity and operational quality [19][20][21]. - **Implementation of New Fund - Fee Regulations**: The new regulations aim to guide long - term investment. The official version has relaxed requirements compared with the draft, reducing the short - term redemption pressure on bond funds [23][24][25]. - **Optimization of Derivative Rules and Risk Prevention**: The bond market has optimized credit - derivative rules and promoted the role of risk - sharing mechanisms to support enterprise financing [26][27]. Opening - Up: Attracting More Foreign Capital and Promoting High - Level Opening - **Restart of Free - Trade Offshore Bonds**: The free - trade offshore bonds have restarted, emphasizing the "two - ends - abroad" principle, which is expected to expand the financing channels for "going - out" enterprises and enterprises in the "Belt and Road" regions [29][30]. - **Optimization of Investment - End Basic Systems**: Multiple measures have been taken to simplify the process for foreign central banks to enter the market, support foreign investors in conducting bond - repurchase business, and optimize the qualified - foreign - investor system, enhancing the convenience for foreign capital to enter the market [31][32][33]. - **Impact of Federal Reserve Interest - Rate Cuts**: The Federal Reserve's three interest - rate cuts in 2025 have given China's monetary policy more flexibility. China's bond market has good cost - performance, which may attract more foreign capital, but the inflow may be gradual [34][35].

地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 城投年报 2025 年 1 月 1 日—1 2 月 3 1 日 地方政府与城投行业研究 "退平台"倒计时下的城投风险再审视 ——2025 年城投行业运行回顾与 2026 年展望 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 汪苑晖 yhwang@ccxi.com.cn 王肖梦 xmwang01@ccxi.com.cn 鲁 璐 llu@ccxi.com.cn 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 【2025 年上半年城投行业运行回顾与下阶 段展望】净融资连续 4 个月为负，警惕退 平台加速风险显性化，2025-06 从财务视角看化债与转型背景下的城投企 业——基于对 2390 家城投企业 2024 年年 报的分析，2025-05 【城投债市场运行 2025 年一季度回顾与展 望】净融创近三年新低，政策收紧倒逼城 投"真转型"，2025-04 2025 年哪些区域将率先退出重点省份名单？ ——基于"99 号文"的相关估算，2025- 02 【城投债市场运行 2024 年回顾与 2025 年 展望】重点省份净融出、退名单 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The central bank's "structural" interest rate cut and the CSRC's work conference set a positive tone for the bond market. The central bank's move is conducive to maintaining a stable liquidity environment and alleviating credit risks, while the CSRC's policy aims to improve the quality, adjust the structure, and expand the scale of the credit - bond market, promoting its development in line with national strategies [3][12][16] - The bond market presents more structural opportunities. It is recommended to focus on medium - to high - grade, medium - to short - term bond varieties, and closely follow subsequent policies, credit risk changes, and the behavior of wealth - management funds [3] Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points on January 15, 2026, and increased the quota of relevant tools. This operation is a "precision - drip" measure, which is expected to improve liquidity marginally, lower capital costs, and support the real economy, especially small and medium - sized enterprises and private enterprises. It has a positive impact on the short - end of the interest - rate bond and helps maintain the stability of medium - to high - grade credit spreads [10][11][12] - The CSRC held a system - wide work conference on January 15, 2026, proposing to "improve the quality, adjust the structure, and expand the scale" of the bond market. It will optimize the supply structure of the credit - bond market, strengthen risk prevention, and promote the development of the commercial real estate REITs pilot, which is expected to enhance the bond market's service to the real economy and national strategies [14][15][16] Macroeconomic Data - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5% at constant prices, achieving the annual target. The economic growth momentum showed a "high - in - the - front, low - in - the - back" trend. Consumption maintained growth with the retail sales of consumer goods reaching 50.12 trillion yuan, a 3.7% increase. The investment side was under pressure with a 3.8% year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment, while the production side remained resilient with the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size growing by 5.9% year - on - year [4][18] Money Market - Last week, the central bank net injected 111.28 billion yuan through open - market operations. However, due to approaching tax - payment periods, a strong start to credit, and the maturity of high - interest time deposits, most capital prices rose. Except for a 3bp decline in DR007, the pledged - repo rates for other tenors increased by 2bp - 11bp. The 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor remained stable, and the spread between them was basically the same as the previous week [5][21] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, credit - bond issuance cooled slightly. The issuance scale was 259.401 billion yuan, and the average daily issuance was 51.88 billion yuan. By bond type, the issuance scales of different bonds varied. By industry, the infrastructure investment and financing industry's issuance scale decreased by 47.663 billion yuan to 83.845 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 38.154 billion yuan; the industrial bond issuance scale increased by 25.302 billion yuan to 152.917 billion yuan, and most industries had net inflows. The issuance costs of most credit bonds decreased by 2bp - 36bp, except for the 3 - year AA+ bonds, whose issuance cost rose by 14bp [6][24][25] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market cash - bond trading volume was 9.054899 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume increasing by 6.5887 billion yuan to 181.098 billion yuan, indicating active trading. Affected by the correction of the equity market, large - scale net injections in the open market, and expectations of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts, the bond - market sentiment improved. The yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds generally declined, with the 10 - year Treasury yield dropping 4bp to 1.84%. Most credit spreads widened, and most rating spreads narrowed [7][34][38] Appendix - There were multiple credit - risk events in the bond market in 2025, including principal and interest extensions and defaults of bonds issued by real - estate companies, financial institutions, etc. [47] - There were several regulatory and market innovation dynamics in 2025, such as tax - exemption policies for overseas institutional investors in the domestic bond market, the release of business guidelines by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the launch of the ICBC - CCDC Panda Bond Index series, and the optimization of the M&A note mechanism by the NAFMII [48][50] - The monthly net financing amounts of major credit - bond types in 2024 - 2025 were provided, showing significant fluctuations [50]

专题研究 2025 年 1 月 1 日—1 2 月 3 1 日 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" 债券市场研究系列 作者： 中诚信国际 研究院 姚姝冰 shbyao@ccxi.com.cn 谭 畅 chtan@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际研究院院长 袁海霞 hxyuan@ccxi.com.cn 2025 年债市政策复盘：创新性与规范化并 举，债市开放再谱新篇，2026-2-4 "十五五"开局下的信用债图景：2026 年 趋势与策略，2025-12-25 违约与展期"双降"下的债市评级调整新 动向，2025-9-9 多空博弈之下，债市风险知多少？—一季 度债市信用风险新特征与关注点，2025-5-6 潜流暗动，聚焦局部——当前债券市场信 用风险表现、特征及展望，2024-11-11 转债风波与地产困局下的信用风险关注— —三大视角透视信用风险半年报，2024-7- 25 融资温和回暖、趋势行情难现，关注长债 供给增加带来的结构性机会-2024 年一季度 信用债市场运行回顾与展望，2024-4-30 如需订阅研究报告，敬请联系 中诚信国际品牌与投资人服务部 赵 耿 010-66428731 ...

联络人 www.ccxi.com.cn 作者 创新产品评级部 周文白 010-66428877 wbzhou@ccxi.com.cn 何 俊 010-66428877 jhe01@ccxi.com.cn 蔡嘉祺 010-66428877 jqcai@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 创新产品评级总监 张凤华 010-66428877 fhzhang@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业研究 保险资产管理行业研究 2025 年度 保险资产管理业创新型产品1季度观察与展望： 结构分化加速，股权计划逆势增长，可深化 布局基础设施 REITs，绿色能源、科技创新 领域 摘要 1 本报告所称保险资产管理业创新型产品，是指在保险资产管理业运行的除传统股票、债券、现金及其组合之外的金融类资产，主要 包括债权投资计划、资产支持计划、股权投资计划及保险私募基金等。 1. 2025 年，保险资管创新型产品规模与数量"双降"，仅股权投资计 划逆势增长。债权投资计划作为核心品种持续下行，区域向华东集 聚、行业聚焦交通运输；资产支持计划小幅下滑，消金小贷仍为主 要基础资产类型；保险私募基金量额同步收缩。机构格局分化且头 部集中， ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 2026 年 2 月 目录 | 核心观点 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业财务表现 | 9 | | 结论 | 12 | | 附表 | 14 | | 结论 联络人 | | 作者 结论 14 企业评级部 陈田田 010-66428877 ttchen@ccxi.com.cn 任嘉琦 010-66428877 jqren@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 王梦莹 010-66428877 mywang01@ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 行业展望 中国黄金行业 中国黄金行业展望，2026 年 2 月 中诚信国际行业评论 预计 2026 年，在地缘政治风险加剧、美元信用走弱、美联储货币政策 和财政政策不确定性尚存的背景下，黄金避险需求对价格的影响更为 显著，黄金价格有望进一步上升。黄金企业盈利及获现能力亦将随金 价的提升而增强，收并购及探矿增储带来的资金需求及存货对资金的 占用可能进一步推升债务规模，但考虑到黄金金融属性，行业信用风 险处于很低水平。 中国黄金行业展望由稳定调整为稳定提升，中诚信国际认为未 来 ...