www.ccxi.com.cn 行业展望 2026 年 2 月 目录 中诚信国际 中国水务行业 中国水务行业展望，2026 年 2 月 2026 年，水务行业投资重心预计将转向重大水利工程与城乡供 排水管网更新改造两大领域，投资项目具备政策性资金保障，企 业直接资本开支压力相对可控；行业盈利能力有望随水价调整范 围扩大而提升，回款情况短期内或难实质性改善，关联企业资金 占用问题仍将存在，行业债务规模继续面临上升压力；得益于水 务企业外部融资渠道保持通畅，行业整体偿债能力维持稳定。 中国水务行业的展望维持稳定，中诚信国际认为未来 12~18 个月该行 业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 摘要 | 摘要 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业内企业信用分析 | 6 | | 结论 | 11 | | 附表 | 12 | 联络人 | 作者 | | --- | | 柯 维 027-87339288 | | wke@ccxi.com.cn | | 黄靖雯 027-87339288 | | jwhuang.huang@ccxi.com.cn | 其他联络人 | 贺 ...

2026 年 2 月 目录 | 摘要 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业财务表现 | 7 | | 结论 | 9 | | 附表 | 11 | 中诚信国际 行业展望 中国城市燃气行业 中国城市燃气行业展望，2026 年 2 月 www.ccxi.com.cn 全球天然气市场供需呈弱平衡态势，国际天然气价格走势相对平 稳，供给结构优化调整，叠加顺价政策持续深化支撑国内城市燃 气企业盈利修复。展望 2026 年全球市场或将呈现"供应宽松、 需求边际复苏、价格中枢下移"格局；国内天然气供需及上中下 游格局趋于稳定，定价机制完善将推动城燃企业盈利能力改善； 行业整体财务杠杆保持稳健，较强的经营获现能力对其偿债形成 支撑，整体信用水平保持稳定。 中国城市燃气行业的展望维持稳定，中诚信国际认为，未来 12-18 个月 该行业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 摘要 联络人 作者 梁子秋 027-87339288 zqliang@ccxi.com.cn 吴萍 027-87339288 pwu@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 贺文俊 027-87339288 w ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 个人汽车贷款证券化 个人汽车贷款 ABS 产品发行规模下降，中资 及中外合资汽车金融公司发行占比上升；需关 注资产特征演变及发起机构风控差异等对产 品表现的影响 ——个人汽车贷款证券化 2025 年度运营报告及 2026 年度展望 要点： 联络人 作者 结构融资一部 唐嘉欣 010-66428877 jxtang@ccxi.com.cn 李 睿 010-66428877-475 rli@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 结构融资一部 评级总监 杨 威 010-66428877-361 wyang@ccxi.com.cn 2026 年 2 月 目录 要点 1 正文 2 结论 13 附表 14 行业方面，受益于汽车行业政策逐步落地，叠加出口较快增长， 2025 年汽车产销量整体继续上升，其中新能源汽车销量占比进一 步增长；随着"高息高返"模式陆续叫停，汽车金融行业整体稳健 发展。 发行方面，2025 年，银行间市场共发行车贷 ABS 产品 32 单，与 上年持平；发行规模 1,185.43 亿元，较上年下降 8.58%，但在信贷 资产证券化中仍位居首位；其中 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second batch of private venture - capital and tech - innovation bonds supported by risk - sharing tools was launched, with policy support for the expansion of such bonds. The optimization of the M&A note mechanism is conducive to strengthening the linkage between stocks and bonds, but the actual effects remain to be seen. The manufacturing PMI improved slightly in November, and the bond market showed different trends in the primary and secondary markets [4][11][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspots - **Private Venture - capital and Tech - innovation Bonds Expansion** - From November 26th to 28th, the second batch of private venture - capital and tech - innovation bonds supported by risk - sharing tools were launched, with 4 institutions planning to raise a total of 930 million yuan. The issuance scale and the number of enterprises decreased compared with the first batch. These bonds have features such as low cost, long - term, innovative credit - enhancement mechanisms, and "credit - enhancement + investment" dual - wheel drive, and the funds are invested in key technological fields [11][12] - Policy support is significant. The central bank proposed to use risk - sharing tools for tech - innovation bonds, and the first meeting of the Science and Technology Finance Coordination and Promotion Mechanism put forward to build a "tech board" in the bond market and smooth the "raising, investment, management, and exit" chain of private equity and venture capital [13][14] - Current problems include small scale, unbalanced issuer structure, and difficulty in matching funds. Suggestions are to introduce diversified investors and improve the risk - mitigation mechanism [15] - **Optimization of M&A Note Working Mechanism by the NAFMII** - On December 1st, the NAFMII optimized the M&A note mechanism, which is conducive to promoting the innovation and development of "bond + stock" products and strengthening the linkage between stocks and bonds. The definition of M&A activities was clarified, and regulations were made in terms of fundraising, innovative terms, and risk - sharing [16][17] - This optimization can help meet the needs of industrial restructuring and upgrading, expand corporate financing channels, and improve the efficiency of financial services to the real economy. However, the actual effects depend on the cooperation of market participants and require continuous regulatory monitoring [18] Macroeconomic Data - In November, the official manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 49% to 49.2%, with the production of the manufacturing industry generally stable. New order, employee, and supplier delivery indexes increased, but the RatingDog manufacturing PMI declined slightly [19] Money Market - Last week, the central bank conducted 5 periods of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations totaling 151.18 billion yuan, 800 million yuan of 21 - day and 1.2 billion yuan of 1 - month treasury cash fixed - deposits. A total of 167.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, 90 billion yuan of MLF, and 30 billion yuan of 6 - month repurchase expired, resulting in a net withdrawal of 16.42 billion yuan. Despite the withdrawal, the money market remained balanced, with most pledged - repo rates falling, except for DR007 and DR021, which rose by 1bp and 2bp respectively [6][23][24] Primary Market of Credit Bonds - The issuance scale of credit bonds increased by 7.007 billion yuan to 42.6731 billion yuan last week, with the average daily issuance scale increasing by 1.4014 billion yuan. Different bond types showed different trends, and the infrastructure investment and financing industry and industrial bonds both saw an increase in issuance scale. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net inflow of funds, and the net inflow of industrial bonds exceeded the net outflow. The average issuance cost of credit bonds mostly decreased, with a decline ranging from 1bp to 15bp [7][27][30] Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - The trading volume of bond secondary - market cash bonds was 809.199 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.2468 billion yuan compared with the previous period. The average daily trading volume decreased by 2.6494 billion yuan to 161.8398 billion yuan, indicating a decline in trading activity. Due to concerns such as the possible implementation of new regulations on public - fund redemptions and some real - estate enterprises' announcements of medium - term note extensions, most bond yields rose. Interest - rate bond yields (treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds) mostly increased by 2bp to 4bp, with long - term yields rising more than short - term ones. Credit - bond yields mostly increased, with a maximum increase of 7bp. Most credit spreads expanded, and rating spreads showed mixed trends [8][38][39]

The provided content does not include any quantitative models or factors, nor does it contain any relevant information about their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The documents primarily discuss the development and issuance of REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) and ABS (Asset-Backed Securities) in China, along with market trends and statistics. If you have another document or specific quantitative research content, please provide it for analysis

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The LPR has remained unchanged for six consecutive months, and monetary policy still has a certain degree of determination. The central bank may maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity through structural tools or timely reserve requirement ratio cuts. In the bond market, with the interweaving of long and short factors, the wait-and-see sentiment will continue in the short term, and it is more likely to be volatile [2][10][12]. - The Ministry of Finance successfully issued 4 billion euro sovereign bonds in Luxembourg, indicating that China's bond market opening continues to advance. This not only releases a positive signal of China's financial market opening but also has multiple meanings such as constructing diversified foreign currency financing channels and promoting cross - border docking of financial infrastructure [3][14][16]. - In October, the cumulative year - on - year data of real estate investment and sales further weakened, and the real estate market continued to operate at the bottom, with the confidence of real estate enterprises to be restored [4][18]. - The central bank provided liquidity support last week, and the overall capital price showed a downward trend. The issuance scale of the primary credit bond market increased significantly, and the issuance cost mostly declined. In the secondary market, the trading activity continued to decline, and the credit bond yields fluctuated [5][6][35]. Summary by Directory Market Hotspots - **LPR Remains Unchanged for Six Consecutive Months**: The 1 - year LPR is 3.00%, and the 5 - year and above LPR is 3.50%, both remaining unchanged for 6 months. The reasons include the narrowing of the net interest margin of commercial banks, the current low - level interest rate, and the emphasis on "cross - cycle adjustment" in monetary policy. The central bank may use structural tools or reserve requirement ratio cuts to maintain liquidity. The bond market is expected to fluctuate [2][10][12]. - **Foreign - Currency Sovereign Bonds Issued Continuously**: On November 18, the Ministry of Finance issued 4 billion euro sovereign bonds in Luxembourg. The total subscription amount was 100.1 billion euros, 25 times the issuance amount. It is innovative in product types, with diversified investor structures. It has multiple meanings such as reducing exchange - rate risks, providing pricing references, and promoting cross - border docking of financial infrastructure [3][14][16]. Macroeconomic Data - In October, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, a decrease of 0.34 from the previous value. National real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 6.8% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing compared with the same period last year [4][18]. Money Market - The central bank conducted 5 periods of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations totaling 167.6 billion yuan and 1 period of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase of 80 billion yuan last week. After deducting the maturity amount, the net investment in the open market was 123.4 billion yuan. Except for DR014 and DR1M, most term pledged repurchase rates decreased by 1 - 5bp. The 3 - month Shibor slightly decreased, and the 1 - year Shibor remained unchanged [21]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - The issuance scale of credit bonds last week was 356.661 billion yuan, an increase of 105.252 billion yuan from the previous value. Except for the private placement corporate bonds, the issuance scale of other bond types increased. The infrastructure investment and financing industry had a net inflow of financing, while the industrial bond financing situation varied. The average issuance cost of credit bonds mostly declined, especially for medium - and high - grade bonds [6][24][25]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - The secondary - market spot trading volume of bonds last week was 822.4458 billion yuan, a decrease of 44.3106 billion yuan from the previous period. The average daily spot trading volume decreased to 164.4892 billion yuan. The bond market yields fluctuated. The yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds showed different trends, and most of the rating spreads expanded [35]. Appendix - **Credit Risk Events in the Bond Market**: There were events such as bond extensions and defaults of some real estate and media companies, including the interest extension of "H1 Greenview 01" and "H1 Greenview 02" and the principal and interest default of "17 Huawen Media MTN001H" [44]. - **Regulatory and Market Innovation Dynamics**: There were updates to the list of special institutional investors for private placement debt financing instruments, and policies such as including savings bonds (electronic) in the scope of personal pension products [45]. - **Monthly Net Financing of Main Credit Bond Types**: The net financing of different types of credit bonds showed different trends from January 2024 to October 2025 [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable outlook for the Chinese port industry, reflecting a robust credit status for the next 12 to 18 months [7]. Core Insights - Since 2025, the container throughput has seen significant growth due to multiple waves of export surges, increased demand from emerging markets, and a rise in high-value product exports. Domestic transportation and bulk commodity imports have also contributed to a favorable increase in total cargo throughput, surpassing the growth rate of the previous year [6][41]. - The competitive landscape among major ports remains largely unchanged, with hub ports strengthening their scale advantages and some southern ports experiencing robust growth [7]. - Despite a weak global economic and trade growth outlook, China's enhanced industrial chain competitiveness and diversified trade layout provide resilience for foreign trade. Domestic fiscal and monetary policies are expected to support internal trade and import transportation demand, stabilizing port throughput [24][41]. Industry Fundamentals - Container throughput in China increased by 6.6% year-on-year to 325 million TEU from January to November 2025, with foreign trade containers growing by 9.5% [9]. - Total cargo throughput for the same period rose by 4.41% to 1.675 billion tons, with foreign trade cargo throughput increasing by 4.12% to 516.1 million tons [9]. - The investment in water transport construction remains high, although equity investment has peaked, with ongoing internal integration and overseas investment needs [6][41]. Financial Performance - Port enterprises have maintained a good profit realization capability, with a slight increase in financial leverage but strong debt repayment ability. Future cargo throughput growth is expected to support profitability, while construction efforts are anticipated to slow down [32][41]. - From January to September 2025, the average operating revenue of 14 sample enterprises grew by only 2.44% year-on-year, influenced by changes in revenue recognition and a contraction in non-port business scale [33]. - The average net cash flow from operating activities increased by 0.49%, indicating a stable cash generation capability [35]. Conclusion - The report concludes that despite global economic challenges and uncertainties in the foreign trade environment, China's port industry is expected to achieve low-speed growth in cargo and container throughput, with a stable credit level anticipated [41].

Economic Insights - Indonesia's stock market faced significant turmoil following MSCI's warning, leading to a two-day drop in the Jakarta Composite Index, marking its worst performance in nearly 30 years, with foreign capital outflows potentially exceeding $13 billion[9] - South Korea's January exports surged by 34% year-on-year to $65.85 billion, with semiconductor exports doubling to $20.5 billion, contributing to a trade surplus of $8.7 billion[14] - The IMF raised Egypt's growth forecast for FY 2025/2026 to 4.7%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a positive outlook for economic recovery[21] Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Turkish central bank lowered its policy rate to 37%, signaling a cautious approach amid rising inflation pressures, with limited recovery expected in the banking sector's profitability[19] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's potential leadership change under Kevin Warsh has prompted a reevaluation of its role, causing immediate market reactions including declines in U.S. stock indices and increases in gold prices[13] Regional Developments - Saudi Arabia's economy is projected to grow from 2.6 trillion SAR in 2016 to 4.7 trillion SAR by 2024, with an average annual growth rate of approximately 8% driven by the "Vision 2030" initiative[18] - The GCC debt capital market is expected to exceed $1.25 trillion by 2026, growing at an annual rate of about 13.6%, primarily due to declining oil prices and increased diversification efforts[25] Inflation Trends - Zambia's inflation rate dropped to 9.4% in January, the first single-digit figure in three years, attributed to currency appreciation and rising copper export revenues[24] - Turkey's broad unemployment rate surged to 28.6%, affecting over 11.6 million people, highlighting discrepancies between official and actual unemployment figures[47]

2026 2026 年 年第 1 月 5 27 期 宏观经济 日 工业企业利润数据点评 新旧分化显著，工业企业利润年增速结束连续三年负 增长转正 ——12 月工业企业利润数据点评 事件：2025 年 1-12 月工业企业营收同比增长 1.1%，较 2024 年回落 1 个百分点，较 1-11 月回落 0.5 个百分点；1-12 月工业企 业利润同比 0.6%，较 2024 年回升 3.9 个百分点，较 1-11 月回升 0.5 个百分点,12 月当月利润同比 5.3%，较上年同期回落 5.7 个百 分点，较 11 月回升 18.4 个百分点。 "量"的支撑边际加大、"价"的拖累减轻，12 月工业企业 利润由负转正，2025 年工业企业利润扭转连续 3 年负增长态势， 增速转正但仍位于低位水平。12 月工业企业利润当月同比由负转 正，为 5.3%，较 11 月回升 18.4 个百分点，为近 3 个月最高。量 的方面，12 月年底备货的季末效应和出口拉动下工业增加值增速 回升，12 月工业增加值同比较上月回升 0.4 个百分点至 5.2%。价 的方面，12 月 PPI 当月同比下降 1.9%，降幅较前值收窄 0. ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 2026 年 2 月 目录 | 摘要 | 1 | | --- | --- | | 分析思路 | 2 | | 行业基本面 | 2 | | 行业财务表现 | 8 | | 结论 | 10 | 联络人 作者 企业评级部 钟 婷 027-87339288 tzhong@ccxi.com.cn 吴亚婷 027-87339288 ytwu@ccxi.com.cn 其他联络人 | 贺文俊 | 027-87339288 | | --- | --- | | | wjhe@ccxi.com.cn | | 余 璐 | 027-87339288 | | | lyu@ccxi.com.cn | 中诚信国际 行业展望 航空运输行业 中国航空运输行业展望，2026 年 2 月 中诚信国际认为，短期来看，受行业供给端长期低增速影响， 航空客运在完成三年"先国内、后国际" 的总量快速恢复后，将 步入量质并举的发展阶段，而航空货运市场则处于机遇与调整 并存的发展局面。 中国航空运输行业的展望维持稳定，中诚信国际认为，未来 12~18 个月该行业总体信用质量不会发生重大变化。 经营端，从外部竞争来看，2025 年以来 ...